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ducks
08-25-2004, 07:32 PM
ESPN NBA Insider - 8/24/04

Tuesday, August 24, 2004

By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider


Finally.

After three weeks of watching Team USA sleepwalk through the prelims and the opening games of the Olympics, the Dreaming Team finally blew somebody out. Little Angola felt the fierce wrath of the Americans on Monday.

At least now Larry Brown & Co. can head into the medal round knowing American basketball still trumps Africa. The rest of the world? Now we'll see.

Team USA lost in a blowout to Puerto Rico, squeaked by Greece and Australia and suffered a close loss to Lithuania in the prelims. Of those four teams, only Lithuania was favored to medal.

Now the real challenge begins. First up for Team USA? An undefeated Spain team led by NBA big man Pau Gasol. If Team USA gets by the Spaniards on Thursday, it faces a possible showdown with Argentina in the semifinals.

If Team USA can win that, it will be poised for the gold medal game on Saturday – most likely a rematch against either Lithuania, Puerto Rico or Italy.

Here's Insider's preview of who the United States will have to face and beat if it wants to win the gold medal Remember, this is a single-elimination tournament. If Team USA loses Thursday, it will not medal.

Thursday's Quarterfinals: Spain

Team USA is seeded fourth in its group, meaning it has to play the top seed from the other pool in the opening round. Spain has been the most dominant team in the Olympics to this point, but this isn't the worst draw in the world for the U.S.

Despite Spain's dominance, it plays a more familiar power game than most European teams and is anchored by Gasol, a player with whom Team USA and Larry Brown are familiar. Gasol has been great in the tournament, averaging 18.2 ppg and 7.6 rpg for Spain. But he's a known commodity to Tim Duncan, Carlos Boozer, Lamar Odom and the rest of the Americans.


When Pau Gasol is on his game, Spain is tough to stop.
Spain has been at its best when Gasol is at his best. He was awesome in Spain's stunning, 87-76 victory over Argentina, scoring 26 points on 9-for-13 shooting, grabbing eight boards and blocking five shots. He had 21 points and 10 rebounds in a blowout of China.

When he has struggled, however, like he did against Serbia, Spain is vulnerable. Duncan had a field day against Gasol during the NBA regular season, holding him to 14 ppg on 41 percent shooting. Gasol was better against Duncan in the playoffs, averaging 18.5 ppg in the first-round series, but he was able to grab only five rpg during that time.

A better matchup for Gasol would be Carlos Boozer. He dropped 37 points on Boozer in their only matchup during the regular season.

The rest of Spain's front line is pretty good, but not great. Felipe Reyes is their best power forward. The 6-foot-6 forward is the team's second-best rebounder. Reyes prefers to take the ball inside and scrap on the boards.

Jorge Garbajosa is the team's second-leading scorer. The 6-foot-8 scorer is comfortable playing in the paint and is one of the team's better rebounders. Like most European big men, he can put the ball on the floor and shoot it from deep, but he hasn't been shooting the ball well in the tournament, going 4-for-15 from behind the arc.

Carlos Jimenez, a 6-foot-6 forward, is the team's best defender.

Spain is shooting just 33 percent from behind the arc in the tournament, and only Greece and the U.S. have made fewer attempts. That's partly because neither player in the backcourt is a dead-eye from long range.

The Spanish backcourt is led by Jose Manuel Calderon, a quick, 6-2 point guard who has been Spain's best 3-point shooter in the tournament and its top assist man. His numbers – 9.2 ppg, 2.4 apg and 33 percent shooting from 3 – don't jump out at you, but he's the heart and soul of the team's backcourt. He finds a way to get it done.

Spain's two-guard is former Washington Wizards second-round draft pick Juan Carlos Navarro. His nickname in Spain is "La Bomba" and, yes, he drops bombs from everywhere. Navarro may have the best floater on the planet. It's his signature shot. He's fearless taking the ball to the basket. He's the best and quickest athlete on the team and can be a lethal scorer when his shot is falling.

However, Navarro has been disappointing in the tournament, averaging just 9.2 ppg on 33 percent shooting. He should be less effective against Team USA's athletic defense. Our guards are used to penetrators, and a guy like Allen Iverson or Dwyane Wade shouldn't have a problem staying in front of him.

One other player NBA fans should watch is Rodolfo "Rudy" Fernandez, a 19-year-old two guard whom many NBA scouts feel is the best guard prospect in Europe right now. Fernandez had a breakout season in Spain, averaging 11.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg and 2.2 apg. He's an excellent athlete and has deep range on his jumper, a nice handle for a 6-5 guard and can play defense. He's been getting limited minutes for Spain because of his age, but if he gets on the court, watch him closely – he could be a lottery pick in next year's draft.

Despite Spain's impressive 5-0 run so far in the tournament, it's going to be vulnerable to Team USA. Spain's strengths are Team USA's strengths. While Spain certainly can win this game, I like Team USA here. I think the U.S. can contain Gasol in the paint and force Spain's perimeter guys to hit 3s. Calderon and Navarro will try to penetrate, but again, I think the U.S. have the defenders it needs to stop that.

Of course, Spain is going to have the same game plan vs. Team USA. Spain plays great defense in the paint and will try to pack it in on Duncan and force the U.S. to shoot from the outside. Both teams have struggled mightily from beyond the arc. This game will probably come down to turnovers and who can hit their perimeter shots.

Saturday's Semifinals: Argentina

Argentina faces Greece in the quarterfinals and is heavily favored to to advance and play the winner of the U.S. vs. Spain. Argentina should be Team USA's toughest challenge, despite the fact it already has dropped two games in the tournament.

Led by the Spurs' Emanuel Ginobili, Argentina has the most balanced team in the Olympics. The team's backcourt play has been stellar, and it has an awesome front line of Luis Scola, Fabricio Oberto and Andres Nocioni. Argentina can play physical when it needs to, yet it can also destroy you with rock-solid fundamental basketball. It won't be intimidated by Team USA's athleticism or physical defense. Argentina's Achilles' heel, much like Team USA's, has been perimeter shooting.


The Spurs' Ginobili has carried Argentina during the Olympics.
Only Ginobili really has gotten it going from the perimeter so far in the tournament. He's shooting 42 percent from 3 and 58 percent from beyond the arc for an average of 19.2 ppg. He's done a little of everything for Argentina, leading the team in assists, steals and is tied with two other players as the team's top rebounder.

He's joined in the backcourt by point guards Alejandro Montecchia and Pepe Sanchez. Sanchez was the starting point guard on the team that won the silver at the 2002 World Championships, but Montecchia has seen the most minutes for Argentina this year. Expect that to change against the U.S.

Montecchia is only 5-9. His strong physical build and quickness are valuable assets to Argentina, but he'll struggle against the bigger and just as quick American point guards. Sanchez has pulled several tours of duty in the NBA and looks like the better choice against Team USA. Sanchez is not a great perimeter shooter but has gone 3-for-4 from beyond the arc in the Olympics.

Pistons' first-round pick Carlos Delfino is making his first appearance for the national team this year, and he's been good in spurts. He scored eight points in the fourth quarter against Serbia-Montenegro, leading Argentina to an 83-82 win. He's played sparingly since then, but he'll spell Ginobili when needed.

The Argentina frontcourt is lethal.

Nocioni is the team's starting small forward. He's been quiet in the Olympics so far, but he's widely considered one of the top players in Europe. The Chicago Bulls signed him to a three-year contract for most of their mid-level exception earlier this summer. Nocioni is an aggressive athlete who can pound you in the post or take you out to the perimeter and kill you with 3s.

Most importantly, Nocioni is a good defender who should be able to lock down the Shawn Marions and Richard Jeffersons of Team USA. He hasn't been making a lot of noise offensively in the Olympics, preferring to defer to Ginobili and Scola, but he's capable of going off whenever they need him to.

Scola, the starting power forward, has been awesome so far. He's averaging 19.6 ppg on 68 percent shooting for the tournament. Scola was drafted by the Spurs in the second round two years ago and is coming off a great year in the Euroleague last season. NBA scouts have wondered about his size (he's just 6-8) and athleticism and whether they translate to the NBA game. However, he was great against the U.S. at the World Championships and is proving again he has a knack for scoring in the paint.

Team USA is going to have to find someone capable of defending him on the block. Scola is very strong and likes to muscle his opponent to the rim. With Tim Duncan likely drawing the defensive assignment on Oberto, Scola will be checked by the Team USA's second-best interior defender. Argentina is one of the few teams that can boast two low-post players capable of dropping 20 points on a team.

Oberto has been another coveted player over the past three or four years, but he's never quite found a fit in the NBA. He's a center who can play with his back to the basket or play the high post and work the pick-and-pop. He doesn't have a power game, but can be aggressive on the boards. He's more of a Vlade Divac-type, using his skills and knowledge of the game as a weapon. He's been pretty quiet in the Olympics, averaging 8.4 ppg and 4 rpg on 65 percent from the field, but he can be lethal when he needs to be.

Argentina's best big man off the bench is Ruben Wolkowyski, a 6-9 banger who spent time with the Sonics, Mavericks, Celtics and Clippers over the years.

Argentina will be the toughest opponent Team USA has to face on the way to a possible gold medal. Argentina gets it done inside and outside, is well coached and is one of the few national teams left that has spent a considerable amount of time together. The U.S. beat up on them last summer in Puerto Rico, but Argentina knows it can beat the U.S. if it plays good fundamental basketball. Argentina dominated the U.S. at the World Championships and can do it again.

If Team USA loses, the best medal it can win is bronze. If it wins, it's on to the gold-medal game. I've been saying since the start of the tournament that Argentina is my favorite to win the gold. Although Argentina has struggled a bit in the Olympics, I still believe it is the favorite to beat the U.S. and bring home the gold.

The gold-medal match

If Team USA beats Spain and Argentina, it likely will face a rematch with either Italy, Puerto Rico and Lithuania. All three teams have beat the U.S. this summer. Italy and Puerto Rico routed Team USA and Lithuania won in a squeaker.

Of the three, Lithuania is clearly the most dangerous. It has the most international experience, the best coaching and the best shooters.

Italy also is a great perimeter shooting team, but its win over Team USA early in the exhibition season may have been a fluke. The U.S. is playing much better basketball now.

Puerto Rico is the wild card. Until its stunning loss in the Olympics, Team USA had dominated Puerto Rico. Carlos Arroyo, in my mind, has been the MVP of the tournament. Larry Ayuso can also light it up. But Puerto Rico has been struggling the last few games. I think a revenge-minded Team USA would win in a rematch.

If Team USA faces Lithuania, I think it will win the silver. If the opponent is Italy or Puerto Rico, I think Team USA will take home the gold.

Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.

==============================

Tuesday, August 24 Updated 7:28 AM EST

Dampier going to Dallas in five-player deal

WHO INTERESTED THE SKINNY

Erick Dampier
Warriors
Mavericks
Aug. 23 - Erick Dampier's odyssey will apparently wind up not in the Big Apple but in Big D. The Mavericks have agreed in principle to a trade that would send forwards Eduardo Najera and Christian Laettner, two future first-round picks and cash to the Golden State Warriors, sources told ESPN The Magazine's Ric Bucher on Aug. 17.

In exchange, the Mavs would acquire Dampier, center Evan Eschmeyer and guard Dan Dickau from Golden State. The Dallas Morning News is reporting the deal could be completed this week.

NBA rules stipulate that no player can be dealt twice within a two-month period (both Laettner and Dickau were traded earlier this summer), but there are loopholes in the CBA that could allow the deal to go down now.

xcoriate
08-25-2004, 08:26 PM
The Spurs' Ginobili has carried Argentina during the Olympics.

Which begs the question, what the hell was he doing in the leadup matches? He was a non factor. Good to see him find some form though.

Go Manu!

King Latifah
08-25-2004, 10:38 PM
Only Ginobili really has gotten it going from the perimeter so far in the tournament. He's shooting 42 percent from 3 and 58 percent from beyond the arc for an average of 19.2 ppg

Aren't those the same thing?

danyel
08-25-2004, 11:24 PM
The Spurs' Ginobili has carried Argentina during the Olympics.

No, Manu and Scola have carried Argentina so far.


Argentina's best big man off the bench is Ruben Wolkowyski

Wolkowyski is our starting Center, Scola comes of the bench.


Sanchez was the starting point guard on the team that won the silver at the 2002 World Championships, but Montecchia has seen the most minutes for Argentina this year

Sanchez suffered a twisted ankle before the olympics, thats way he's been playing less minutes.

I don't think USA can beat Spain yet it will leave the Spaniards tired enough so we can beat them.

Greece will be hard but I hope Argentina can pull it out. I think Italy will beat Puerto Rico.

Gold Game Argentina over Lithuania
Bronze Game Spain over Italy