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CubanMustGo

06-27-2006, 08:33 PM

Should a team draft to fill a need, or should it take the best player available?

Most teams will tell you they choose the latter, but that's not always the way to go. Just ask Billy Knight and the Hawks -- Chris Paul would look pretty good in a Hawks uniform right now, and Marvin Williams is coming off the bench.

Then again, drafting for need isn't always the better choice, either. The Blazers traded their pick last summer because Paul was the best player on the board and they didn't think they needed him with Sebastian Telfair around.

[The truth is that team needs matter. Some teams have glaring needs that must be filled through the draft.

When should a team draft talent over need? Only when a team is very deep; it has multiple picks; or the best player on the board is head and shoulders above the player who fits a need.

With the season now over for almost half of the teams in the NBA, Insider breaks down the needs of every team.

ATLANTA HAWKS
Projected first-round pick: Fourth

Team needs: Long, athletic swingman (just kidding); point guard; center

Analysis: What do Joe Johnson, Al Harrington, Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Josh Smith, Boris Diaw and Donta Smith all have in common?

They're all long, athletic swingmen who happen to play the same area of the court.

At some point, Billy Knight will realize that a team of swingmen can't win it all in the NBA, right? Right?

Think it's ridiculous that Atlanta will draft another small forward this year? That's what we thought last year, which is why we thought it was a no-brainer for the Hawks to take Paul. I can see Knight licking his lips about Rudy Gay as we speak.

Seriously, at some point, the madness must stop.

The Hawks need a point guard badly. The problem is, none of the prospects in the draft played like a top-10 pick this year.

The Hawks also could use more size. Zaza Pachulia has been good in the middle, but Atlanta needs more athleticism and shot blocking in the paint. Tyrus Thomas would be great if he's available. Ditto for Joakim Noah and LaMarcus Aldridge.

The Hawks, according to sources, also are jonesing for Andrea Bargnani. Although he's not quite another athletic swingman, he's yet another perimeter forward who won't play defense or with his back to the basket.

If all four of those guys are off the table when the Hawks pick, there's going to have to be some soul-searching in Atlanta. The other great players are all swingmen.

The right pick might turn out to be Villanova's Randy Foye -- a tough, athletic combo guard who could thrive next to Johnson in the Hawks' up-tempo offense.

BOSTON CELTICS
Projected first-round pick: Seventh

Team needs: Point guard, center

Analysis: Celtics president Danny Ainge has been excellent at draft time. 2003 first-rounder Kendrick Perkins is the team's starting center. Al Jefferson, Delonte West and Tony Allen made the Celtics' 2004 draft one of the best in the NBA.

Last year's draft wasn't too shabby, either. Second-round pick Ryan Gomes was solid in the second half of the season, and in the last few weeks, high school star Gerald Green suddenly looked as though he belonged, too.

So, what's next for the Celtics? Ainge mentioned to season-ticket holders earlier in the week that the team could still use a traditional point guard. West has been good, but Boston still would like to have someone with a better handle running the offense.

The problem is that the best fit for the Celtics' system, Rajon Rondo, isn't worth a top-10 pick right now.

They could go with Brandon Roy, another big combo guard who could play right away.

I suspect they might just trade the pick for a veteran. The Celtics have plenty of young up-and-coming players to develop. What they need are a few more veterans who can help Paul Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak hold down the fort.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Projected first-round pick: Third

Team needs: Small forward, big shooting guard

Analysis: The Bobcats have addressed their front-line and point guard positions in the last two drafts, although the jury is still out on the prospects they've drafted.

Emeka Okafor looked solid in his rookie season, but injuries halted his progress this year. Sean May also had injuries that kept him out of the lineup much of the year. After a slow start, point guard Raymond Felton came on in the second half of the season.

Charlotte also has Gerald Wallace to build on.

The Bobcats' biggest need is a swingman who can shoot the rock. GM Bernie Bickerstaff is said to have a fondness for Gonzaga's Adam Morrison and Italy's Bargnani. Both guys can stroke the ball and score in bunches.

However, don't be surprised if Bickerstaff opts to add another big man to the mix. The three best prospects are big guys, and Bickerstaff might not want to pass on them. Noah, if he were to declare, would provide the type of energy and hustle Bickerstaff loves. Aldridge is a smooth, multidimensional big man -- something the Bobcats don't have. Thomas is a long athlete who rebounds, blocks shots, and flies up and down the floor. Charlotte has some of that in Okafor and May, but Thomas has more upside than either of them.

CHICAGO BULLS
Projected first-round picks: Second, 16th

Team needs: Power forward, big shooting guard

Analysis: The loss of Eddy Curry last summer left a gaping hole up front for the Bulls. Curry was the team's best low-post scorer, and no one on this year's team has been able to provide that type of production. Tyson Chandler can handle the rebounding and defense, but someone has to be able to get a bucket with his back to the basket.

There's no perfect fit for Chicago in the draft -- Texas' Aldridge comes closest -- which means the Bulls might just take the best players available. Sources say they're high on LSU's Thomas as well as Euro star Bargnani.

The team also needs a big, physical player to put in the backcourt with Kirk Hinrich and Ben Gordon. Washington's Roy makes the most sense, but taking him in the top three might be a little high and there's no way he'll be on the board when the Bulls draft again at No. 16. Arkansas' Ronnie Brewer and Temple's Mardy Collins could make some sense with the second pick.

The best course for the Bulls might be a trade. They have plenty of young players to build around. Tyson Chandler, Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Mike Sweetney, Chris Duhon and even Andres Nocioni fit that category. What the team really needs are a few veterans who can show the young guys how to win.

If the Bulls could package one or two young players with their top pick and get a superstar like Kevin Garnett in return, I don't know how they could pass that opportunity up.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Projected first-round pick: 25th

Team needs: Point guard, power forward?

Analysis: The Cavs' biggest need right now is at the point. Eric Snow is well past his prime; Damon Jones has been a flop in Cleveland; and as good as Flip Murray has been, he's not a point guard.

The top two point guards, Marcus Williams (UConn) and Collins, probably will be off the board by the time the Cavs pick. Rondo could be available. He's a strong defender and good in the open court -- but does Cleveland really need another guard who can't shoot the 3?

The Cavs could have another opening at the four, depending what they decide to do with Drew Gooden. He hits restricted free agency this summer, and the team probably won't break the bank to keep him.

A good defender and shot blocker such as North Carolina State's Cedric Simmons would be a nice complement to Anderson Varejao and Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

DALLAS MAVERICKS
Projected first-round pick: 28th

Team needs: Power forward, center

Analysis: The Mavericks aren't a team with many needs right now. If they don't re-sign Jason Terry this summer, they will need some depth at the point. Devin Harris is being groomed for that spot, but they might not be ready to let him take over.

With Keith Van Horn hitting free agency, the team needs a four to back up Dirk Nowitzki.

Despite all the bigs Dallas has, it could always use an athletic, shot-blocking center. What are the Mavs' options at the end of the first round? Possibly Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong, Leon Powe, Paul Millsap and Alexander Johnson.

DENVER NUGGETS
Projected first-round pick: None

Team needs: Shooting guard, backup power forward/center

Analysis: The Nuggets don't have a lot of options.

Their first-round pick is going to New York, and they owe Dallas a second-round pick, so it might be slim pickings for Denver fans still waiting for their team to get that elusive sweet-shooting guard to round out the team.

DETROIT PISTONS
Projected first-round pick: None

Team needs: Point guard, center

Analysis: Detroit's first-round pick is heading to the Blazers this year. Even if the Pistons had it, it's doubtful they'd find anyone in the draft they really need at the end of the first round. Every young player they draft and like -- Darko Milicic, Carlos Delfino, Jason Maxiell, Alex Acker and Amir Johnson -- has trouble getting time, anyway.

Look for the team to tap the international market in the second round. The Pistons don't have a lot of space for rookies on the roster, so they might as well develop a kid or two overseas for a few years. Look for them to fill their need for a backup point guard via free agency this summer and look for a center with the Magic's first-round pick next season.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Projected first-round pick: Ninth

Team needs: Small forward, center

Analysis: Another year, another lottery pick for the Warriors. Chris Mullin must feel as though he's caught in the film "Groundhog Day."

We expect some changes in Golden State this summer. It's not clear coach Mike Montgomery will survive, and some players likely will be shipped out, too. Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy are the most likely to go. They don't play defense and don't add enough offensively for the team to put up with that.

The Warriors are actually in a good draft position and could get a shot at Gay. If he's off the board when they pick, they could decide to bring in a guy like Foye to act as insurance should Baron Davis have another injury problem.

HOUSTON ROCKETS
Projected first-round pick: Eighth

Team needs: Power forward, shooting guard

Analysis: The Rockets had yet another disappointing year. Injuries seemed to be the biggest culprit that kept them out of the playoffs, though chemistry between the team that GM Carroll Dawson put together and the way head coach Jeff Van Gundy likes to play is also an issue.

With GM heir apparent Daryl Morey now on the job, we'll see if his more statistical approach to the draft affects what the Rockets are going to do.

If the Rockets get a high pick, you've got to believe they're going to try to find a physical, shot-blocking, rebounding big man to play next Yao Ming. I could see Tyrus Thomas, Al Horford and even Shelden Williams fitting in well in Houston.

INDIANA PACERS
Projected first-round pick: 17th

Team needs: A little of everything

Analysis: It's tough to project exactly what the Pacers will be targeting in the draft because it's unlikely they'll go into next season with this same roster. Changes are very likely.

Peja Stojakovic is an unrestricted free agent, and Fred Jones is a restricted free agent. Jermaine O'Neal could be on the trading block. Jamaal Tinsley has been a disappointment, and Stephen Jackson has worn on the nerves of some teammates. The bright spot right now is rookie Danny Granger, who looks to be a staple on this team for a long time.

With all that said, look for the Pacers to find the best player they can -- maybe a backcourt player who can provide some athleticism and leadership. Maybe someone like Collins or Maurice Ager would be a fit.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Projected first-round pick: None

Team needs: Backup power forward/center

Analysis: For once, it's April and the Clippers aren't already thinking about the draft. Not only is the team in the playoffs for the first time in a while but it also has sent its first-round pick to New Jersey.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Projected first-round pick: 26th

Team needs: Point guard, small forward

Analysis: The Lakers' first-round pick is heading to Phoenix, but the team picks up another one from the Heat.

What should they do with it? The Lakers still needs a point guard, but they're going to have a hard time finding a starter for Phil Jackson in the late first round.

They might have to switch to replacing Devean George. Shawne Williams of Memphis or Jeff Green of Georgetown would be a good fit if either is in the draft.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Projected first-round pick: 24th

Team needs: Point guard, center

Analysis: This year's Grizzlies proved that chemistry sometimes can trump talent in the NBA -- but talent is necessary. So how do they improve on their talent base this summer?

Questions surrounding the future of Damon Stoudamire could mean the point guard slot is open.

Center remains an issue for Memphis. Lorenzen Wright is a free agent this summer and probably won't be back. Jake Tsakalidis has been decent, but the Grizzlies need more than decent. Aaron Gray, Armstrong and Mouhamed Saer Sene could be options.

MIAMI HEAT
Projected first-round pick: None

Team needs: Small forward, point guard

Analysis: The Heat's first-round pick is heading to the Lakers this year, and their second-round pick is going to the Raptors. And with no real cap room to speak of, the Heat are going to have to make their changes via free agency, the mid-level exception and trades.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Projected first-round pick: None

Team needs: Depth

Analysis: The Bucks are sending their first-round pick to the Hornets this year. They have a second-round pick, but given the depth of the team at almost every position, it's doubtful Milwaukee will find anyone in the draft who suits its needs.

The Bucks are capped out, as well, meaning they'll also have to make their changes via free agency, the mid-level exception and trades.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Projected first-round pick: Sixth

Team needs: Point guard, center

Analysis: The Wolves are in a bind. The team needs veterans to help Kevin Garnett over the hump in the West, but it also needs young players to begin replenishing the roster.

I think we're about six months away from Garnett demanding a trade. Minnesota had better have a contingency plan in case he does.

This creates an interesting dilemma for the Wolves. Do they draft the player most ready to come in and help Garnett, or do they go young to rebuild for the long term?

I think if Horford is on the board when Minnesota picks, the team would be crazy not to take him. He's the type of tough, athletic forward who could be brought along patiently. If Horford sticks to his plan to stay in school, I could see the Wolves reaching a little for Shelden Williams or trying to figure out their point guard problems by tapping a kid like Villanova's Foye.

NEW JERSEY NETS
Projected first-round pick: 22nd, 23rd

Team needs: Center, backup point guard

Analysis: The Nets actually have two late first-round picks this year, thanks to the Kenyon Martin trade. Although finding a nice backup for Jason Kidd is doable at this point in the draft, finding a legit center is much harder. NC State's Simmons might be a good choice if he's still on the board. Pittsburgh's Gray and Armstrong and Boone of Connecticut are also options here.

NEW ORLEANS/OKLAHOMA CITY HORNETS
Projected first-round picks: 12th, 15th

Team needs: Center, big swingman

Analysis: The Hornets were the surprise team of the year, thanks to the inspired play of rookie Chris Paul and forward David West, but they still have several big holes to fill.

It's a good thing they have two first-round picks (theirs and Milwaukee's) this year to make adjustments.

For starters, they are still looking for an athletic big man to replace the rebounding and shot blocking of Jamaal Magloire and Chris Andersen. All of the top big men will be gone by the time the team drafts, but Bradley's Patrick O'Bryant is a possibility here.

Also, it appears that J.R. Smith isn't getting out of Byron Scott's doghouse anytime soon, which means the Hornets are going to have to figure out something else at the two (Kirk Snyder started there after Smith was benched). Roy would be a great fit, but he likely will be off the board when the Hornets pick. Rodney Carney, Ronnie Brewer, Corey Brewer and Shawne Williams could all be good options. J.J. Redick might get a look, as well.

NEW YORK KNICKS
Projected first-round picks: 20th, 29th

Team needs: New team, new coach, new GM

Analysis: The Knicks should be in the mix for the first pick in the draft. Instead, they're sitting around watching Eddy Curry not jump for rebounds and wondering how the Bulls gave away Curry, still made the playoffs and are getting the Knicks' high lottery pick in June.

The Knicks do have two late first-rounders -- one from the Nuggets, the other from the Spurs. Given Larry Brown's stated desires, one of those picks probably will be a traditional point guard, if Isiah Thomas can find one. Collins might be a good choice. Although he's not a pure point guard, he's unselfish and a good defender.

Given that the Knicks will try to move Jalen Rose's expiring contract this summer, a small forward could also be a possibility. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute from UCLA might be a great pick here if he declares. He's a long, intelligent athlete who defends.

But if Brown is coaching, the rookies might not see the floor much.

ORLANDO MAGIC
Projected first-round pick: 11th

Team needs: Big shooting guard, sharpshooter

Analysis: The Magic caught fire after they shipped Steve Francis out and brought in Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo.

They have a nice young nucleus of Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson and Milicic and a nice swingman in Hedo Turkoglu.

What they need now is a big guard who can help cover Nelson's weaknesses in the backcourt -- preferably a guy who can handle the ball. Roy would be ideal, but the Magic's winning streak at the end of the season means they are probably no longer in the range to get him. Ronnie Brewer is a possibility.

They also could start to groom a replacement for Grant Hill. Memphis' Carney might be a good choice if Orlando goes that route.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Projected first-round pick: 13th

Team needs: Power forward, point guard

Analysis: The Sixers were a huge disappointment this season. It's hard to fathom that a team with a healthy Allen Iverson and Chris Webber -- both having great years -- couldn't manage an eighth seed in the East.

Some point the finger in the direction of coach Mo Cheeks, but the real blame lies with GM Billy King. He has to factor chemistry into the moves he makes.

At some point, the Sixers probably are going to try to cut ties with Iverson, Webber or both, opening up lots of needs. If they stick with the status quo, a backup for Webber would be nice, and Shelden Williams and Horford are possibilities.

Or the team could choose to slide Iverson back over to the two and take an unselfish point guard such as UConn's Marcus Williams.

PHOENIX SUNS
Projected first-round picks: 21st, 27th

Team needs: Center, shooting guard

Analysis: The Suns are pretty stacked everywhere, which means their two first-round picks this year (their own and the Lakers') are luxuries. It's unlikely anyone in the draft will be able crack the Phoenix rotation next year, which gives the team the freedom to draft for the future.

If the Suns can get their hands on a center they like this far down in the first round, they'll do it.

If not, look for them to go with upside. Julian Wright, Tiago Splitter, Simmons, Mbah a Moute, Shawne Williams and Miguel Marriaga would all be interesting players in the Suns' system.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Projected first-round pick: First

Team needs: Center, upgrades everywhere else

Analysis: For a guy with a team loaded with young talent, coach Nate McMillan sure has a lot of leaks to plug.

The most obvious need is at center. Joel Przybilla is a free agent, and given Paul Allen's recent conversion to miserliness, he might not be willing to fork out the cash to keep him. Theo Ratliff is also in the middle, but his best days are far behind him.

The problem is that the draft doesn't offer any clear solutions. If Noah were to change his mind and declare, he could be the pick. But there isn't another center on the board worthy of a top-10 pick.

That might lead the Blazers in a different direction. They'd love to move Zach Randolph if they could, and finding a big man who could replace him is a doable task.

Morrison is also a viable option. Darius Miles is on the outs with the team, and Morrison is the type of guy who might get fans to come out and watch the Blazers again.

Roy is an option, as well. The team did just draft Martell Webster, but Roy is the type of unselfish, defense-minded guard McMillan craves.

SACRAMENTO KINGS
Projected first-round pick: 19th

Team needs: Backup center, backup point guard

Analysis: The Kings have a lot of basketball talent and the addition to Ron Artest seems to have given them the toughness factor that they've lacked in the past. What they need now is more athleticism in the backcourt. They've really missed Bobby Jackson and could be on the lookout for a player who could play both the one and the two coming off the bench. A guy like Miami's Guillermo Diaz, Texas' Daniel Gibson or Iowa State's Curtis Stinson may be a good fit.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Projected first-round pick: None

Team needs: Center

Analysis: The Spurs don't need much, and anything they do need isn't going to be provided by a rookie.

It's a good thing. The Spurs are sending their first-round pick to New York this year, meaning they'll have to wait until Round 2 to pull an obscure player out of their hat. I can see them going international again, maybe with a guy like Ukrainian big man Olexsiy Pecherov.

SEATTLE SUPERSONICS
Projected first-round pick: 10th

Team needs: Backup swingman

Analysis: The Sonics are back in the lottery and need to find a player who can replace the scoring they got from Vladimir Radmanovic and Flip Murray off the bench. A player like Ronnie Brewer, Foye or Carney might be the best fit for the Sonics right now.

TORONTO RAPTORS
Projected first-round pick: Fifth

Team needs: Center, point guard

Analysis: The Raptors have a future. Chris Bosh is going to be an All-Star for many years. The team is roughly $14 million under the cap this summer. It owns a potential top-five pick in the draft. New GM Bryan Colangelo knows how to run a winning organization.

But there are still some problems.

In moments, Charlie Villanueva looks like a potential All-Star. His 48-point performance in late March was amazing. But his lack of consistency is frustrating and his best position is Bosh's position.

Mike James was one of the best point guards in the league this year, but he is a free agent, turns 31 this summer and doesn't look as though he factors into the long-term plans for the franchise.

So what do the Raptors do?

With James likely out the door, Jose Calderon is their only legit option at the point. The best point guard in the draft is Marcus Williams, but early to middle lottery is too high to take him. And no one has been able to fill the center role adequately. But this draft is very weak at center and point guard.

If the Raptors win the lottery, they can have their choice of athletic power forwards, but how does that help their core of Bosh and Villanueva? Colangelo loves Bargnani, but he duplicates Villanueva.

They also could have their choice of swingmen like Gay or Morrison. But again, I'm not sure either of them would fill a need.

Don't be surprised if the Raptors put Villanueva on the block for a point guard or center and use their pick to grab a guy like Bargnani. Or trade their pick and Joey Graham or Morris Peterson to fill a need that way.

UTAH JAZZ
Projected first-round pick: 14th

Team needs: Shooting guard, athletic big man

Analysis: From what we hear, owner Larry Miller is in love with J.J. Redick. For that reason, I think it will be hard for Miller and the Jazz to pass on Redick if he's on the board.

But Redick might not be the perfect fit on the team. Although the Jazz would love his 3-point shooting, Redick doesn't do any of the other things Jerry Sloan demands.

What the Jazz really need is a big, athletic two-guard who can create his own shot off the dribble. Roy, Foye and Ronnie Brewer might all be better fits for the Jazz.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Projected first-round pick: 18th

Team needs: Combo guard, center

Analysis: Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler have been great for the Wizards, but the drop-off in play is pretty steep after that. Antonio Daniels has been a disappointing replacement for Larry Hughes, and Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas never seem to live up to their potential.

O'Bryant, Armstrong and Boone are all options at the five.

Maurce Ager and Richard Roby could be options at the two.