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Quadzilla99
07-01-2006, 04:29 PM
Who do you think will be ROY? I'd pick Morrison terrible team, well developed player.

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Who's the Rookie of the Year?posted: Thursday, June 29, 2006 | Feedback | Print Entry

Now that the draft is over and draft grades have been handed out, one big question remains unanswered: Who's this year's Chris Paul?

For a player to rise quickly to the top of his class and compete for the Rookie of the Year award, talent is an essential part of the equation, but so is fit. He needs to (a) be NBA ready and (b) get plenty of playing time. It also helps to (c) go to a bad team, or at least one that really needs you to produce.

Last year on draft night I proclaimed that Paul would win Rookie of the Year. He had all three factors going for him: He was ready to roll, he was going to get to start, and he was playing for the moribund Hornets.

With that in mind, here are my top five candidates for Rookie of the Year.

1. Brandon Roy, SG, Portland Trail Blazers: Roy has four years of college experience, and he'll likely be the starting two guard for the league's worst team. If the Blazers purge Zach Randolph and Darius Miles this summer, Roy will also likely be the team's best scorer.

2. Adam Morrison, SF, Charlotte Bobcats: In the Rookie of the Year race, Morrison has a head start. The national NBA media knows who he is, and personality brings him attention.

Morrison also has all three factors going for him. He's probably the most skilled scorer on the Bobcats, and he should get lots of minutes.

But he's not No. 1 on this list because he faces a bigger adjustment to the NBA than Roy. He's going to have to get his shot off against bigger, longer, more athletic wings. Chances are he'll figure out how to do it, but it might take a while.

3. Randy Foye, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves: Foye has the first and second factors going for him. He's as NBA ready as anyone else in the draft, and with Rashad McCants out for the year, he should get plenty of playing time.

But the Timberwolves might be a pretty good team next year, and they have Kevin Garnett and Ricky Davis to do the scoring. Still, Foye will find a way to fill up the stat sheet. And if the Wolves start winning again, he might get Rookie of the Year consideration for playing a role in their turnaround.

4. Andrea Bargnani, F, Raptors: Why isn't the No. 1 pick the top guy on this list?

Bargnani is more NBA ready than many realize, given his experience in Italy. But he does face more adjustments than the usual No. 1 pick. The NBA game is not the Euro game, and it will take him time to adjust to the speed and physicality of the game here.

More importantly, Bargnani isn't guaranteed big minutes as long as Charlie Villanueva is on the team. Bargnani will likely come off the bench in a supporting role, taking away minutes and touches. Still, by the end of the season we should see some quality production from Bargnani.

5. Rudy Gay, F, Grizzlies: Gay marginally qualifies for each factor. He has the talent to win the award, though he lacks some of the experience of the other players on the list. He is likely to go to a playoff team on which Pau Gasol and Mike Miller dominate the touches, and it's unclear whether he'll have the starting job at small forward.

But he's still a dark-horse candidate for Rookie of the Year. If Gay lives up to his potential, there's no reason he couldn't be the second-best scorer on the Grizzlies and help Gasol lead Memphis back into the playoffs (and maybe even into the second round, though that wouldn't help him win a regular-season award). He's a long shot, but we're keeping an eye on him.

Others to watch: LaMarcus Aldridge, C, Blazers; Ronnie Brewer, G, Jazz; Shelden Williams, F, Hawks; Tyrus Thomas, F, Bulls; J.J. Redick, G, Magic; Shannon Brown, G, Cavs.