Spurs Statistical Projection

[timvp]

PLAYER FG% FT% 3P% RPG APG SPG BPG PPG
Duncan .515 .711 .250 12.6 3.5 .75 2.60 22.9
Parker .477 .735 .375 3.5 6.3 .90 .09 16.8
Ginobili .435 .802 .361 5.4 4.6 2.12 .25 15.1
Barry .492 .833 .464 3.0 4.2 1.10 .22 9.8
Nesterovic .511 .505 .000 8.5 1.6 .75 2.33 9.1
Rose .455 .802 .000 5.7 1.2 .60 .50 8.2
Brown .455 .822 .343 2.9 0.8 .45 .15 7.0
Bowen .425 .605 .377 3.0 1.2 .90 .40 6.8
Udrih .444 .825 .350 1.9 2.9 .75 .11 6.7
Horry .412 .701 .395 3.2 1.1 .50 .50 4.9
Johnson .409 .655 .333 3.3 0.7 .30 .45 3.4
Massenburg .450 .688 .000 1.8 0.2 .20 .22 2.1

TEAM .455 .702 .369 44.9 21.1 8.5 6.7 94.5
OPPONENTS .404 .740 .325 41.4 17.1 7.5 4.7 86.5

[xcoriate]

Not bad, just a quick error, shouldn't it say 4.7 next to opponents blocks?

[timvp]

Thanks.

[xcoriate]

No problem :)

[Rick Von Braun]

what playing time distribution did you use timvp?

Is this based on some statistical analysis based on past performance or is this just your best guess?

Edit: Thanks for adding the minutes... that helps!

[timvp]

These are just my best guesses. I'll add minutes in a little while.

[Man Mountain]

I think that Barry is going to drop about 12 points per game........ otherwise nice job :)

[timvp]

Barry was hard to figure. I wouldn't be too surprised if he averaged 12 ... but then I'd think that Parker and Manu would average less.

[spursfaninla]

If you take just the shots that were distrubuted between our players last year, you can give manu and parker a shot each from Hedo and then give the rest to Barry and it gives you pretty close to what you said, with Barry maybe getting 10? If we run more with a 3 guard set, we will score more as well...

[orhe]

FGA and FTA would be nice :)
i can't see Ginobili and Parker not taking more shots than last year.
if the two improves their FG% look out World! the spurs might reach a 100 ppg! :) (dreaming)

[nzkickass]

good job timvp, apart from u missed out Marks stats !!! He will be there for sure.

[timvp]

I think it will come down to Massenburg versus Marks for that spot. If Marks wins it, replace his name in those projections.

[Man Mountain]

The Spurs can do better than 94.5 points. This is a run-and-gun group like the old Warren Moon Oilers. We need to beat the other teams with defense and a fast pace. If we don't we are going to be to small to defend the half court sets I'm afraid ...

[timvp]

With the Spurs' style of defense, it would be hard to average much more than 96 points per game. There just aren't enough possessions because the other team spends so much time trying to score.

[Karl Mundt]

timvp's projection looks pretty good to me.

Duncan: 22.3 points, 12.4 rebounds, 3.11 blocks on .526% FG
Parker: 17.6 points, 7.4 assists on .426% FG
Ginobili: 13.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.12 steals on .451% FG
Nesterovic: 11.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.33 blocks on .528% FG
Barry: 10.8 points, 4.4 assists on .495% FG and .461% 3PT
Rose: 8.6 points, 6.5 rebounds on .423% FG
Bowen: 5.9 points on .456% FG and .402% 3PT
Brown: 5.7 points on .442% FG
Udrih: 5.4 points, 3.5 assists on .475% FG
Horry: 4.3 points, 3.3 rebounds on .398% FG
Johnson: 3.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 0.92 blocks on .387% FG
Marks: 1.6 points, 1.2 rebounds on .456% FG
Massenburg: gets bored, breaks Devin's ribs

sum total: no idea + celebration hug ban
:hat

[Karl Mundt]

I wasn't looking at timvp's stats when i was typing my projection, but looking now, there doesn't seem much of a difference between the two, some stats are almost identical.

[Phenomanul]

Wouldn't Bowen average at least 1 steal per game???? even on limited minutes...

[BronxCowboy]

Wouldn't Bowen average at least 1 steal per game???? even on limited minutes...

Not on limited minutes, maybe not on big minutes. Check his history.

Also, Timvp is being pretty generous on the FG%, I think. I sure hope he's right.

[Phenomanul]

It's the omitted turnover category which worries me....

[scott]

Hopefully our FT % will somehow be higher than that.

[xcoriate]

Hmmm, Bowen seems to do most of his defensive work filling the passing lane and staying in front of his player, he doesn't gamble and go for the steal he just forces a hard shot. As a result his stats dont tell the story of his defence.

[Nikos]

I am suprised people didn't take a stab at this, I remember last year everyone basically did it.

My unofficial ppg stats......


Duncan 23.2
Parker 15.2
Ginobili13.4
Barry 10.2
Rose 8.3
Rasho 8.2
Udrih 5.2
Bowen 5.1
Dbrown 4.4
Horry 4.2
LJ 1.2

[Rick Von Braun]

Hey timvp, where is the playing time distribution you promised? http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smispin.gif

The most important stat missing is FGA/g, and if this is not available, at the very least minutes/g.

If I have FGA/g, I can extrapolate FTA/g based on the player characteristics and I can probably predict the PPG of each player with a +/- 1 pt accuracy, maybe even +/- 0.8.

If I only have minutes/g, I can do a less accurate job of predicting FGA/g (based on estimates on number plays run for the player, time he holds the rock per possesion, etc.).

[timvp]

Okay ... considering that injuries and DNPs will make it that the total doesn't equal 48 ... here is my thinking.

Duncan -- 37
Bowen -- 28
Nesterovic -- 31
Ginobili -- 32
Parker -- 35
Barry -- 25
Rose -- 20
Brown -- 18
Udrih -- 10
Horry -- 10
Johnson -- 6
Massenburg -- 4