Reading the Spurs' Minds: A Theory

[Mr. Body]

I apologize for taking a new thread on this, but this involves both the Butler and Elson situations. Please merge it, if called for.

I just had a stroke of inspiration. I don't know what it means, but...

What do Francisco Elson and Jackie Butler have in common? The both play for teams involved in a speculated Kenyon Martin-to-New York trade. Thoughts:

1. If Martin is traded, Denver is short one of their big men, a starter. They'll retain Camby. Reggie Evans is asking for a lot of money. Nuggs seem to be under the cap, but need to acquire shooters. Keeping Evans may be too much. Martin will be traded for perimeter players, most likely.

2. If NYK acquires Martin, they are stocked with lots of big men, most of them incredibly expensive. They then have K-Mart, Curry, James, and an assortment of expensive power forwards.

3. I wonder if the Spurs know and expect this trade to go down. They have in on good faith it will happen.

Following this train of thought, the Spurs don't really want Elson. (I'm holding out faith they don't.) They expect Denver to have to match him, because they stand to lose two of their big men, or at least one. They expect New York not to match due to Big Snack's salary and the luxury cap cost.

The problem is, why did they sign Elson to an offer sheet? Maybe the Spurs know the trade will happen today or early next week. Or, they are trying to force it to happen sooner, so those teams know the answers to their tough questions. There may be an attendant benefit -- maybe they're somehow involved in a multi-team trade and are trying to ensure they stay in it when the trigger is pulled.

It's a high risk, but the rewards for failure are still pretty good. They get Elson, who is cheap for the number of years he gets. And they still have a pretty good shot at Butler.

I just wonder if there is an ulterior motive here to force some action. I have to believe (in my basketball-loving heart) that they want to wind up with Butler and maybe Javtokas. If reports are true that RJ hasn't signed anything are true or that a draconian Greek deadline aren't true, this makes more sense.

I dunno. Just an idea.

[SA210]

I just wish we got Javtokas here.

:pctoss

[Spurs9]

I just wish we got Javtokas here.

:pctoss
So do I, but its a very intresting theory and may work!

[furry_spurry]

This morning Javtokas confirmed by himself that he won't go to the NBA this season. But he said that those talks about Panathinaikos are bullsh*t and he has no contract yet.
source: daily news paper L.T.

http://forums.interbasket.net/showthread.php?t=468&page=2

[Spurs9]

Did anyone just see KSAT 12 at noon? Very intresting about Butler, they said the Knicks are having a hard time matching the offer becuase they only want to give him $900.000 a year while the spurs are offering $2million a year! AND one of the inside guys who wanted to sign Butler for the Knicks NOW is on the spurs. Very intrested. :smokin

[Mr. Body]

Javtokas is not a gamebreaker in this scenario. They may intend to send the money elsewhere. It's all shaky, anyway; I was only speculating if there is something that hasn't materialized yet.

[furry_spurry]

Did anyone just see KSAT 12 at noon? Very intresting about Butler, they said the Knicks are having a hard time matching the offer becuase they only want to give him $900.000 a year while the spurs are offering $2million a year! AND one of the inside guys who wanted to sign Butler for the Knicks NOW is on the spurs. Very intrested. :smokin
The $900,000 is the set amount for the qualifying offer. Reporters keep making too much of that amount.

[Mr. Body]

Knicks asked Butler's camp to look for offers and set the terms for his contract. As an RFA that is typical. That's what happened.

[ducks]

Wolves Have Pulled Out Of The Evans Sweepstakes
But Right Now Word Is Evans Wants The Full Mle

[Mr. Body]

Don't know who gives Evans the MLE. There are a lot of teams waiting around.

[spvrs]

IF they believe that they can see the future in that much detail we are all in real trouble.

I think they are following the M.O. that they always say. Remain flexible, if you do that when something good comes up you can try for it.

[Mr. Body]

IF they believe that they can see the future in that much detail we are all in real trouble.

Nah, it was more of a calculated risk. Signing Butler to the RFA was a calculated risk, anyways, since he's likely to be matched. I was more wondering if there was an ulterior motive behind these two selections. For the second choice, it was either Elson or Collins, who are about equivalent. So why specifically Elson?

I'm also struggling to come to terms with the Elson over Javtokas decision and was trying to find some rhyme or reason.

[spvrs]

I think they see the word like this. We almost beat Dallas even with atrocious/bias officating. Nazr and Rasho added collectively 0.00. So they arent' viewing this big man signing as anything more than specialized roll player when you go against massive front court teams like Orlando and Miami.

We needed to be more athletic and have someone who could body Dirk so bruce could distrupt Howard. Jav. wants too much money so they are trying to get Elson who sucks but is basically as low as you can go for a big man.

Butler is a different type of move, a smart calculated risk. Probably won't happen but if it does it's gonna be huge.

My beef is just how incredibly bad the Spurs have come across this off season. We've gone from the 'place everyone wants to play for (even for less $$)' to some kind of calculating tightwads making low ball offers...

[SenorSpur]

Nah, it was more of a calculated risk. Signing Butler to the RFA was a calculated risk, anyways, since he's likely to be matched. I was more wondering if there was an ulterior motive behind these two selections. For the second choice, it was either Elson or Collins, who are about equivalent. So why specifically Elson?

I'm also struggling to come to terms with the Elson over Javtokas decision and was trying to find some rhyme or reason.

I would agree. I struggle with that decision too. The only thing I can come up with is they felt that neither Butler or Javtokas were ready to start.

Though it can be argued that Elson's skills don't warrant him being a starter either, the fact remains that he did "fill in" for Camby when both he and Nene were injured. Of course, you can also make the claim that Denver was left with no other choice other than to move him into the starting lineup during that span. His numbers weren't impressive either way.

[Mr. Body]

Javtokas didn't ask for more money than Elson is getting. At most he expected half the MLE. Funnily enough, what Oberto got.

We are not getting more athletic. Actually getting less athletic, if it was possible. If anything, our bench and starting C has stayed put at a below average level of athleticism.

What destroyed us in losses last year was rebounding. We are now a worse rebounding team than we were last year.

And you're right - - the Spurs are looking incredibly cheap and may have hurt their reputation in Europe quite a bit.

[Bruno]

I disagree with your read.

Most of the times, simple explications are the better.

The central point of your reasoning is that Spurs don't really want Elson and I think they would like to get him.

As I said in another post, even if Elson isn't a good player, he is a serviceable 7 footer with some experience and who is not too old :
- Spurs need that kind of players (Butler is still a project)
- $6M/2 years is a good contract. If you think that Spurs overpaid for Elson, just look at what other centers contracts.

[Mr. Body]

I'm disagreeing with my theory, too.

That said, Elson isn't an average center. He's below average. His contract is not bad, and the Spurs must figure they can package him at the end of the year with Barry to give someone needing expiring contracts. So, he's a one year rental. Javtokas is presumably on a one-year contract, they'll bring him over next year to back up Butler if there's a Butler to back up, etc.

But it absolutely fucking sucks. It's the chickenshit way to go about things.

[SenorSpur]

I think they see the word like this. We almost beat Dallas even with atrocious/bias officating. Nazr and Rasho added collectively 0.00. So they arent' viewing this big man signing as anything more than specialized roll player when you go against massive front court teams like Orlando and Miami.

We needed to be more athletic and have someone who could body Dirk so bruce could distrupt Howard. Jav. wants too much money so they are trying to get Elson who sucks but is basically as low as you can go for a big man.
...

Is there anyone that truly believes Elson can body up Dirk?




My beef is just how incredibly bad the Spurs have come across this off season. We've gone from the 'place everyone wants to play for (even for less $$)' to some kind of calculating tightwads making low ball offers...

Good point. Among players, this is a huge deal. If players feel as though the organization is notorious for consistently "low-balling" potential FAs, good luck trying to sign even "mid-level" exception-type players.

The only way the organization can save face and retain any credibility is to win another championship.

[spvrs]

We struggled on rebounding because Bowen couldn't box out Dirk. If Duncan went over they could crash the boards.

[Mr. Body]

So Dampier or Diop gets the follow-up slam. Nice.

[spvrs]

Is there anyone that truly believes Elson can body up Dirk?

if they believed that they wouldn't low ball him. My thinking is they see this a separate something (terrible 6 foul guy). They will address the other issue with trades or pray for a good guy in Summer league

[Mr. Body]

Elson doesn't mind bodying up a guy and giving hard fouls (as Dirk drives past him). He's alone on the Spurs in this. That's actually one reason to like him.

[FromWayDowntown]

Does anyone truly believe that Javtokas is capable of defending Dirk? I don't, if only because he's not going to get the respect from officials that would be necessary to stay on the floor long enough to make a difference.

I'm also not sold on the notion that Javtokas is a no-brainer as a solid rotation contributor to a team with championship aspirations. He might end up being that, but it strikes me as equally likely that he'd end up being a poor man's Chris Andersen. I'm not sure that such a player warrants half of the MLE.

[spvrs]

I guess I meant 'guard' Dirk and box him out. Don't cnocentrate toomuch on the term 'body up'

[Mr. Body]

I'm not sure Elson or Javtokas was ever going to guard Dirk.

[spvrs]

That was my point. They are trying to get a scrub back up big guy. A guy to address their main problems will happen via trade or summer league (long shot)

[Mr. Body]

Again, if we're talking scrub big guys, I'll go with the Robertas Javtokas that has accomplished something playing basketball, not the Francisco Elson who was worse for his team in the playoffs this season than he was on the bench.

Agreed, the main problems will be addressed via trade or summer league. I'm feeling they think Rich Melzer is their big coup, God help us.

[NorCal510]

this ninja do his homework

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I apologize for taking a new thread on this, but this involves both the Butler and Elson situations. Please merge it, if called for.

I just had a stroke of inspiration. I don't know what it means, but...

What do Francisco Elson and Jackie Butler have in common? The both play for teams involved in a speculated Kenyon Martin-to-New York trade. Thoughts:

1. If Martin is traded, Denver is short one of their big men, a starter. They'll retain Camby. Reggie Evans is asking for a lot of money. Nuggs seem to be under the cap, but need to acquire shooters. Keeping Evans may be too much. Martin will be traded for perimeter players, most likely.

2. If NYK acquires Martin, they are stocked with lots of big men, most of them incredibly expensive. They then have K-Mart, Curry, James, and an assortment of expensive power forwards.

3. I wonder if the Spurs know and expect this trade to go down. They have in on good faith it will happen.

Following this train of thought, the Spurs don't really want Elson. (I'm holding out faith they don't.) They expect Denver to have to match him, because they stand to lose two of their big men, or at least one. They expect New York not to match due to Big Snack's salary and the luxury cap cost.

The problem is, why did they sign Elson to an offer sheet? Maybe the Spurs know the trade will happen today or early next week. Or, they are trying to force it to happen sooner, so those teams know the answers to their tough questions. There may be an attendant benefit -- maybe they're somehow involved in a multi-team trade and are trying to ensure they stay in it when the trigger is pulled.

It's a high risk, but the rewards for failure are still pretty good. They get Elson, who is cheap for the number of years he gets. And they still have a pretty good shot at Butler.

I just wonder if there is an ulterior motive here to force some action. I have to believe (in my basketball-loving heart) that they want to wind up with Butler and maybe Javtokas. If reports are true that RJ hasn't signed anything are true or that a draconian Greek deadline aren't true, this makes more sense.

I dunno. Just an idea.

Excellent analysis.

Theory B: Front office panicked after noticing that the team had no center with NBA experience on their roster and extended offers to two of the last people available who've actually played a minute in the big league.



Actually, Mr Body. I like your theory better. The signings of the last few days have been very atypical for the Spurs which makes me think something else is in the works as well. . .at least that's my hope.

[Mr. Body]

Actually, Mr Body. I like your theory better. The signings of the last few days have been very atypical for the Spurs which makes me think something else is in the works as well. . .at least that's my hope.

We can only hope so. I don't remember having such flabbergasted despairing befuddlement about the Spurs' moves before.

[Ocotillo]

http://www.bjacked.net/LuvToHunt/forums/phpBB2/modules/gallery/albums/album01/Beat_Dead_Horse.jpg

For the love of God the horse is almost dead.

We should know more by next Wednesday what the logic behind Elson is.

[Mr. Body]

For the love of God the horse is almost dead.

We should know more by next Wednesday what the logic behind Elson is.

Stop reading if you're not interested. It's that simple.

[strangeweather]

One other thing that would throw a wrench in your scenario: Denver's been trying to get Frye bundled in the proposed Francis/KMart trade. If that happens, then (a) the Nuggets just upgraded from Elson bigtime, and (b) the Knicks have a more plausible reason to match Butler.

[rasho8]

Heres how the Spurs will get a team...

http://www.kburgessjr.com/wizard2.gif

[Mr. Body]

One other thing that would throw a wrench in your scenario: Denver's been trying to get Frye bundled in the proposed Francis/KMart trade. If that happens, then (a) the Nuggets just upgraded from Elson bigtime, and (b) the Knicks have a more plausible reason to match Butler.

Yeah, it kind of falls apart. The one thing that's obvious is they're banking on Dolan not paying for NYK's 4th big. And I just have to come to terms with the fact they truly wanted Elson over Javtokas. The 'starting caliber center' theory has to be the only reason there.

[40 inch vertical]

Heres how the Spurs will get a team...

http://www.kburgessjr.com/wizard2.gif

.... depressed as I am over the RJ thing, this really made me laugh.

Thanks!

[spursmode]

My only question are the spurs going to aquire via trade a snowcone machine or not?

[furry_spurry]

We should know more by next Wednesday what the logic behind Elson is.
The logic is really the simplest explanation-- he was the guy they could get to agree to a two-year deal. They would rather overpay for two years than have a longer term deal.

[furry_spurry]

My only question are the spurs going to aquire via trade a snowcone machine or not?
They should have asked Toronto for one- they would have been happy to throw it in to get Rasho. ;)

[spursmode]

I apologize for taking a new thread on this, but this involves both the Butler and Elson situations. Please merge it, if called for.

I just had a stroke of inspiration. I don't know what it means, but...

What do Francisco Elson and Jackie Butler have in common? The both play for teams involved in a speculated Kenyon Martin-to-New York trade. Thoughts:

1. If Martin is traded, Denver is short one of their big men, a starter. They'll retain Camby. Reggie Evans is asking for a lot of money. Nuggs seem to be under the cap, but need to acquire shooters. Keeping Evans may be too much. Martin will be traded for perimeter players, most likely.

2. If NYK acquires Martin, they are stocked with lots of big men, most of them incredibly expensive. They then have K-Mart, Curry, James, and an assortment of expensive power forwards.

3. I wonder if the Spurs know and expect this trade to go down. They have in on good faith it will happen.

Following this train of thought, the Spurs don't really want Elson. (I'm holding out faith they don't.) They expect Denver to have to match him, because they stand to lose two of their big men, or at least one. They expect New York not to match due to Big Snack's salary and the luxury cap cost.

The problem is, why did they sign Elson to an offer sheet? Maybe the Spurs know the trade will happen today or early next week. Or, they are trying to force it to happen sooner, so those teams know the answers to their tough questions. There may be an attendant benefit -- maybe they're somehow involved in a multi-team trade and are trying to ensure they stay in it when the trigger is pulled.

It's a high risk, but the rewards for failure are still pretty good. They get Elson, who is cheap for the number of years he gets. And they still have a pretty good shot at Butler.

I just wonder if there is an ulterior motive here to force some action. I have to believe (in my basketball-loving heart) that they want to wind up with Butler and maybe Javtokas. If reports are true that RJ hasn't signed anything are true or that a draconian Greek deadline aren't true, this makes more sense.

I dunno. Just an idea.


I say we are just fucking everything up for everyone else!!!!!!!!!!!!
Misery loves company!!!!!!!!!!If we can't be happy nobody can!!!!!
GO SPURS GO

[spurs=bling]

Heres how the Spurs will get a team...

http://www.kburgessjr.com/wizard2.gif
:lol

[Obstructed_View]

Heres how the Spurs will get a team...

http://www.kburgessjr.com/wizard2.gif
Too many bigs. Duncan can't cover Dirk. Dirk would score a thousand points a game and all three Duncans would be fouled out by the third quarter. And imagine the damage the hall of famer Josh Howard would do against those big guys.