Weaknesses and solutions ?

[venitian navigator]

What kind of weaknesses you see in our actual roster and what kind of possible solutions, via free agency or trades ?
For the moment :

PG

The situation

1) I see a potential, but necessary, weakness at back up point guard.
The point is that bene deserve a fair try, son I'm O.K. with it and vaughn can be see as amore than decent assurance;

possible solution

For now, no one. We're O.K. at the moment and we have to run our options and see if they works; in case they don't, soluitions may be necesary, in a second time


SG and SF

2) here I see some more than potential weaknesses in terms of youth/possible injuries (Bowen, Finley, Horry aren't spring chickens and so risky for injurise...; Ginobili in younger, but play in a injury risky way), rebounding and speedness

possible solution

it's maybe more a pipe dream, but i'd like we to :

1) wait till 21 august
than, send barry, e. eilliams and one or two second choices to sac. for a "just two year" contract, 8/9 million worth, for Bonzi

2) Than sign Q. Woods for the LLE (the some two years)

If this work out, we could have find a very good short term solution for both the spots

If the two guys finally behave, thay could be rewarded with a title or two.
If they don't, two years are bearable


PF and C

we have a lot of persons for just two spots, and a lot of versatility.
The only weakness I see is the defense against a "big and high body" like could be O'neal or Ming...(no more Rasho)

Solution

What about a minimum deal to the "candy man"?

[RogerIsEatingASandwich]

Weakness = Rebounding.....and we still have done nothing to address it

Just say NO to the Candyman...

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

How the hell are we supposed Bonzi with just Barry and E. Will? And he won't behave because he won't have a starting spot.

[Mr. Body]

Sacramento doesn't look to add salary at this point, so taking on $8M plus for a Barry they don't need and an otherwise useless Eric Williams probably won't happen, no matter how sweet the Spurs could possibly make it.

The speed of the Vaughn signing suggests they were after him the moment New Jersey drafted Marcus Williams. In Beno and JV they have two halves of a good point guard.

Rebounding and youth on the wing are absolute musts. Unfortunately, it may very well not happen. An athletic, hard-working Bowen back-up who can rebound well would be huge. I don't see anybody on the horizon who is a long-term fix. Jumaine Jones seems like a pretty good idea at this point.

[Texas_Ranger]

Center position.

The team has just one real center and that is Jackie Butler. Then we have 5 PF, if Marks will go away 4 PF. I don`t know what are we going to do if some big guy will be injured, we will be in big problem. So I think that we should bring some center.

[AFBlue]

[QUOTE=venitian navigator]1) wait till 21 august
than, send barry, e. eilliams and one or two second choices to sac. for a "just two year" contract, 8/9 million worth, for Bonzi QUOTE]

I liken Bonzi Wells to another swingman making 8 or 9 mil...Darius Miles. Both come with their share of headaches and neither will ever be worth the 8 or 9 million they get. Bonzi had a great series, but is a classic underacheiver and headcase.

I'd still put smart money on trading the expiring contract of EW for a young swingman on a team looking to get as far under the salary cap as possible for '07 FA class.

My top choice would be Mickael Pietrus because he's young, defensive-minded, and won't cost an arm and a leg b/c his production thus far doens't warrant it.

Others I like: Carlos Delfino, Francisco Garcia, Antoine Wright, and Travis Outlaw.

[venitian navigator]

Sacramento doesn't look to add salary at this point, so taking on $8M plus for a Barry they don't need and an otherwise useless Eric Williams probably won't happen, no matter how sweet the Spurs could possibly make it.

The speed of the Vaughn signing suggests they were after him the moment New Jersey drafted Marcus Williams. In Beno and JV they have two halves of a good point guard.

Rebounding and youth on the wing are absolute musts. Unfortunately, it may very well not happen. An athletic, hard-working Bowen back-up who can rebound well would be huge. I don't see anybody on the horizon who is a long-term fix. Jumaine Jones seems like a pretty good idea at this point.

Well, I said that BW was a kind of a pipe dream...
However, I think that Sacramento could choose to do not lose him for nothing...
Barry, to me, look a more than decent option for them.

1) He's a california man;
2)he's a veteran shooter thay don't have in the back court (Salmons is everything but a good shooter...) and could be a very good locker room man and teacher for the young Martin and Garcia;
3) he can also be a very good good back up point man.

Also count that last year he's been the one to kill them.

So, I think that with some "sweet"...there could be more than a chance to get BW.

But maybe the Spurs won't ever think to take the risk of signing him...'cause of his baggage.

[Mr. Body]

v_n: Bonzi and his agent want a S&T but I doubt Sacramento does it. I believe they're hitting the luxury cap. Barry isn't too attractive to them, I wouldn't say, because they already have younger players who do what he does.

PT: Mikael Pietrus would be ideal, but he wouldn't come cheap. He's one of their best assets and are looking to bundle him up with a bad long contract to get someone to bite.

[AFBlue]

Center position.

The team has just one real center and that is Jackie Butler. Then we have 5 PF, if Marks will go away 4 PF. I don`t know what are we going to do if some big guy will be injured, we will be in big problem. So I think that we should bring some center.


I hate the term "Small Ball" so I'll use another term that describes the current trend in the NBA....Versatility. Having only One true blue Center isn't that big of a shock nowadays. Tim Duncan could be considered a Center b/c he occupies the low block on O and D, but he's also versatile enough to man PF. Elson also could be considered a center because he'll occupy the lane on D, but he has the versatility of an 15 ft shot and he can run the court like a PF.

The days of slow, plodding Center that dominate the paint on O and D are disappearing (that's not to say they won't reappear) and we're left with a culture that asks players to do it all: rebound, block, run, 3pt, low block, pass, etc.

All we did was get with the times...we traded away the long-term contract of a slow, plodding center got back a PF with long-range ability. We let go of a solid rebounder, but poor receiver and passer to get younger (Butler) and quicker (Elson).

So I wouldn't consider our Center position any weaker now than it was last season.

[mathbzh]

If we need a backup center here is my proposal.
This may seems weird, but I would propose a 2 years contract to frederic Weiss.
He is a former NY pick who refused to come in the NBA after being posterized by Vince Carter during the 2000 olympics.

This guy is now 29 years old is a true center who know the game.
He is 7'2 and 255 pounds. Very mobile for his size. He finished his last season in spain, the best european league, as #5 rebounder and #1 shot blocker.

This guy is a defensive force and now accept it (his job is not to score). I guess Vince Carter would now be punished if he tried to dunk over Fred. The french coach says he play his best basketball ever.

Before bashing me for that strange idea. Wait the end of the World Championship. Fred will be the french starting center. Then you will see what the big dude can do.

In a league were raws young center like Petro and Swift (Seattle) have decent number, I am sure Weiss would be usefull to any team looking for a decent center.

[AFBlue]

v_n: PT: Mikael Pietrus would be ideal, but he wouldn't come cheap. He's one of their best assets and are looking to bundle him up with a bad long contract to get someone to bite.

Yeah I know...the Pietrus idea is a litte out there, but he has underperformed each year, they're paying several players (Davis, Murphy, Dunleavy) lots of money and if they are deemed "untradeable" than the least that the Warriors can do is clear cap space to avoid the Luxury Tax threshold. It gives me a little hope, but you're probably right.

[SpursWillOwn]

Spurs would not do anything more than signing melvin sanders.. keep it real

[THE SIXTH MAN]

Before bashing me for that strange idea. Wait the end of the World Championship. Fred will be the french starting center. Then you will see what the big dude can do.
:lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao http://youtube.com/watch?v=_jkedTgD26A&search=vince%20carter%20weis

[venitian navigator]

If we need a backup center here is my proposal.
This may seems weird, but I would propose a 2 years contract to frederic Weiss.
He is a former NY pick who refused to come in the NBA after being posterized by Vince Carter during the 2000 olympics.

This guy is now 29 years old is a true center who know the game.
He is 7'2 and 255 pounds. Very mobile for his size. He finished his last season in spain, the best european league, as #5 rebounder and #1 shot blocker.

This guy is a defensive force and now accept it (his job is not to score). I guess Vince Carter would now be punished if he tried to dunk over Fred. The french coach says he play his best basketball ever.

Before bashing me for that strange idea. Wait the end of the World Championship. Fred will be the french starting center. Then you will see what the big dude can do.

In a league were raws young center like Petro and Swift (Seattle) have decent number, I am sure Weiss would be usefull to any team looking for a decent center.



I think N.Y. still owns his rights...and, if he shows well in the champioships, they could finally take him and have the "third string" center they missed with Butler at the "first choice" money...

[venitian navigator]

How the hell are we supposed Bonzi with just Barry and E. Will? And he won't behave because he won't have a starting spot.


Well, in this moment Sac. looks like they're gonna lose him for nothing...
And with the Salmons acquisition, he could have a lot less plaiyng time...considerin the emerging Garcia and Martin.
So, barry could be a good fit 'cause doesn't need nor deserve a lot of playng time in the sg/sf positions, and can back up (like and better than Salmons) the pg position.
However, Sac. can just cut e.will contract for not paiyng the luxury tax...

In case of sign for two years with us, he better behave...if the first year he don't, no plaiyng time in the second year...and, then, no market value (a la Mercer)

[AFBlue]

In case of sign for two years with us, he better behave...if the first year he don't, no plaiyng time in the second year...and, then, no market value (a la Mercer)

It's not a bad theory and you make some valid points, but I think the Kings might get better offers than a spot 3pt shooter with 2 or 3 yrs left on his deal and an expiring $5 mil contract.

Your biggest assumtion though, is that the Spurs would be willing to pay him $8 or 9 million and that he would be willing to accept a two year deal. He's only 29 yrs old and would probably ask for a long-term guaranteed contract of at least 4 years. Plus we're looking to get younger on the wing and while 29 is less than 35, our goal will probably be a younger swingman (21-25) on a rookie contract ($1 to 4 mil)

So, while I think it could happen, I just don't see it.

[furry_spurry]

Spurs have 6 big men-- they aren't getting another one. It's going to be difficult to get minutes for the ones they already have. People assume Tim, Elson, and Rob are the top three big guys to start the season. Will Oberto get his shot? How will Butler develop without geting his time on the court? What about all the things people claim Bonner can do- how much will he even play? As for the Spurs center position- they have no traditional defensive center amongst the 6 of them. To truly be versatile and match up against all teams, including the reigning champs, they should have signed 1 out of the 14 players.

[venitian navigator]

It's not a bad theory and you make some valid points, but I think the Kings might get better offers than a spot 3pt shooter with 2 or 3 yrs left on his deal and an expiring $5 mil contract.

Your biggest assumtion though, is that the Spurs would be willing to pay him $8 or 9 million and that he would be willing to accept a two year deal. He's only 29 yrs old and would probably ask for a long-term guaranteed contract of at least 4 years. Plus we're looking to get younger on the wing and while 29 is less than 35, our goal will probably be a younger swingman (21-25) on a rookie contract ($1 to 4 mil)

So, while I think it could happen, I just don't see it.


The main reason 'cause I like this potential signing is the ability of BW to take rebounds and defend...and that's the reason because I see it as (very difficult but) possible.
But you're absolutely right...
In fact, the ones you mentioned, are the main reasons 'cause I called that like a "pipe dream".
However, just consider that , at some point in your career, a bad behavior takes you some consequence...I mean, that in a normal world, Sac. Could never think that signing Salmons is better that signing BW.
But they ovbiously have thought (and they're right) that when you pass from a bad situation to one that gives you the chance to shine you should be thankful with the team that gave you that chance...and that means to be, at least, logical in what kind of money you ask.
BW had a good season, but not stellar...just against us he's been really, really good.
So he didn't deserve a contract of 8/9 millions for a lot of years...expecially considering all the baggage he takes with him.
However, he and is agent have considered an offer than more than 7 mill. a year for five years (36 millions) "....not fair".
That's a "Sprewellesque" behavior...that, imho, could have huge bad consequences for both the agent and the player.

The only real difference with Sprewell, is that BW is just 29....but he takes with him the some, if not more, baggage.
And, like Spree, he never really won anything...
And, I really think that not a lot of teams will ever take, after what's happened with Sac., a "five years" risk at 8/9 millions a year.

Coming to age, I think that his next two years could be the best for him...and the long term solution could be not him but the other guy I'd like the spurs to sign (Quyntel Woods) or somebody else we're going to choose in the next draft or for whom we'll trade for or we already have drafted (see Sinikidze).

[Mr. Body]

Butler will definitely get his time on the court. They'll give him as much as he can handle, I'd expect. I'd expect Horry's minutes to come down. Oberto will get some kind of shot.

[furry_spurry]

Butler will definitely get his time on the court. They'll give him as much as he can handle, I'd expect. I'd expect Horry's minutes to come down. Oberto will get some kind of shot.
And Bonner? Will all 6 guys even suit up each game?

[AFBlue]

And Bonner? Will all 6 guys even suit up each game?


Nope...gotta think at least one of them will be Inactive List regulars or trash-time players. My guess is that Pop experiments with a few different reserve combos early in the season and settles on a 4-man big rotation like last year (Rasho, Nazr, Tim, Big Shot). Personally I think it will be Tim, Big Shot, Elson, and Butler.

I have a caveat though. I think Bonner/Oberto could get more playing time than typical 12th men because the Spurs will want to keep Big Shot's minutes down and limit the use of their 4-guard + Tim setup.

[SLOVENIAN 8]

No NBA finals in 2006-2007.....

[venitian navigator]

Time is passing.
We didn't make more moves.
Are we just waiting the iopening night being sure we're set and it's all O.K. or are we just "fliyng under the radar" ?

[waly.mg]

we have a lot of persons for just two spots, and a lot of versatility.
The only weakness I see is the defense against a "big and high body" like could be O'neal or Ming...(no more Rasho)


Tell me the teams whom have players with good defense vs Shaq and Yao

Who: Big Ben, Tim Duncan and....?

[waly.mg]

No NBA finals in 2006-2007.....

Whit less players, because Rasho and Nazr don´t played, we were 1 ball or a foul left to advance to the Conference Finals

We now have Elson, Bonner and Butler

[velik_m]

Tell me the teams whom have players with good defense vs Shaq and Yao

Who: Big Ben, Tim Duncan and....?

Toronto... :smokin

[dougp]

Our weakness is our fans - they don't believe.

[wildbill2u]

Our weakness is one of our greatest strengths--Bowen.

With all his defensive talent he remains a terrible rebounder for a player on the front line and mostly a non-contributor on offense. Standing out at the 3 point line, waiting for the ball in the corner is a very limited contribution in a game that demands motion.

As good as he has been in Pops historical game-plan of that emphasized defense, Bowen may not fill the bill in the new offense-minded NBA.

He's aging well--see Team USA and his accolades last year--but he IS aging and will have to go sometime in the forseeable future. Meanwhile, we can't bring in that dreamed of long athletic SF unless we get some unknown Euro kid cheap.

No first rate player is going to want to come to the Spurs and sit behind Bowen. Meanwhile, he's going to be a log jam at the position for the next couple of years with the tide of NBA basketball running against his forte'--defense.

[venitian navigator]

Our weakness is one of our greatest strengths--Bowen.

With all his defensive talent he remains a terrible rebounder for a player on the front line and mostly a non-contributor on offense. Standing out at the 3 point line, waiting for the ball in the corner is a very limited contribution in a game that demands motion.

As good as he has been in Pops historical game-plan of that emphasized defense, Bowen may not fill the bill in the new offense-minded NBA.

He's aging well--see Team USA and his accolades last year--but he IS aging and will have to go sometime in the forseeable future. Meanwhile, we can't bring in that dreamed of long athletic SF unless we get some unknown Euro kid cheap.

No first rate player is going to want to come to the Spurs and sit behind Bowen. Meanwhile, he's going to be a log jam at the position for the next couple of years with the tide of NBA basketball running against his forte'--defense.


That's exactly why I think our 2/3 position is the one that needs more "new blood".
We made no draft choices (just, maybe, Sinikidze ? but he looks more a 4 than a three) in that position.
I still think that our best options could be Q. Woods (that - with Butler - supposedly had a god season with larry Brown) for the FA and Wells for trades.
At the moment, I don't see a lot of teams willing to spend too much for Bonzi... so it looks not that much of a pipe dream.

Denver said to be interested, but has proposed to the player a one year contract for little money waiting for testing the market next year.
Well, this is an offer really unfair to him (contrary to the excellent 7 millions a year for five years of Sancto : total 36 millions for five years).
Indiana could be an option in case of failure of the Harrington deal (but bw looks to me quite like steph jack...).
I see no more suitors, at least with the appeal to be a good team (Atlanta ? Charlotte ?)
I think that, at this point, BW could be really more than interested to a contract for two/three years (last one as team option) in a sign and trade.
The combination of Barry and E.Will. makes already for 9 and half millions a year... I think we could give him a three year contract worth 25 millions.
10 millions a year for the first two years and the third year at five million...
So, in case the experiment come good, we have his bird rights and, however, a third season with a decent contract in case trading is needed...
Well, in case, we just have to understand how sweet we have to make the deal for Sancto to accept... let's wait august 21!

[MarkCuban]

no big deals made this offseason? is that possible?

[Mr. Body]

That's exactly why I think our 2/3 position is the one that needs more "new blood".
We made no draft choices (just, maybe, Sinikidze ? but he looks more a 4 than a three) in that position.
I still think that our best options could be Q. Woods (that - with Butler - supposedly had a god season with larry Brown) for the FA and Wells for trades.

There just doesn't seem to be much out there. You have the Josh Childresses and Mikael Pietruses of the world, but they are too valuable to be traded for scraps. You have a step up for the Nocionis, but they're even more unlikely. I fear a situation where we're scraping up another Chucky Brown.


I think that, at this point, BW could be really more than interested to a contract for two/three years (last one as team option) in a sign and trade.
The combination of Barry and E.Will. makes already for 9 and half millions a year... I think we could give him a three year contract worth 25 millions.
10 millions a year for the first two years and the third year at five million...

IF the Spurs are even thinking about Bonzi, I can't see them spending that much for him, especially if the market is so lousy for him. Who is going to offer him that much? I could see the Spurs trying to pry him lose for Barry + something. Maybe plus Scola, but I think they'd rather see if Scola can get them moved up in next year's draft.

Next year's draft seems to be key, where they have assets to collect their SF of the future. Not sure who that player is -- this year's SFs, especially Ronnie Brewer, were more attractive.

I don't see Sacramento in any way taking on Eric Williams' contract. They don't need an expiring in exchange for a guy they're not even paying. Then, if the Spurs get him, the question is if Bonzi can come off the bench for a contender. It's big-time risky.

[Mr. Body]

Added: Reviewing mock drafts for 2007, there are a number of very young SF prospects, including Kevin Durant and Thaddeus Young and others. Many will go very high, but with big men being the story of that draft, the Spurs might see someone drop; that's why it looks important to trade up into the near-lottery.

[venitian navigator]

Mr. Body, Imho Wells in never gonna accept something less than what Sancto has offered to him...that means something in the level of a little more than 7 millions a year for five years.
I would give him that much just 'cause :

1) BW
would be happy.
we are one of the last possible solutions for him to get something camparable to what Sancto has offered.
That should push his old team to accept such an offer : 25 millions in three years is slightly better than 36 in five...when the contract ends, he will be 32, so still, eventually, in good shape for a new, last, decent contract.
And, after all, he's gonna play these years for a contender

2) S.A.
could resolve his problems just for the right time...two years.
This year Bruce will be more than 35 and coming from the world championship games, like Manu.
Barring injuries, they both will be tired and, expecially at the beginning of the season, they will need some rest.
Actually, like you said, BW is the only realible option and, for sure, if it wasn't for his behavior, one of the best possible ones for this team.
However, in 2008 the contract option would be exercised just if worth of it...(and the player won't be that old, at 31...)

3) Sancto
I think that could be convinced (and, more than all, pushed by his old player) to take an offer of Barry, E.Williams and some second choices to sweeten the deal...
Thay should consider (like has already made the Spurs F.O. in the Rasho trade) that having an expiring contract, in the actual market is, substantially, an asset valuable till february deadline, to make, in case of needing, some more market move with teams that, by that time, have almost no more play off chances... so, I don't think that have one such as the E.Will one is gonna scare Sancto.
In the worst of cases, it could be just something to pay in the current year (and, however, I think Sac is not at the salary tax level) and not a problem to carry on for years to come.
Barry, imho, is the best asset they can find in the market for what they need in the back court (veteran outside shooter...; reliable back up at point guard) in case BW is no more with them;more than all, Barry won't ask minutes away from the supposed young studs (Martin and Garcia) and could be an insurance in case Salmons (really overpaid, for what he has showed till now) doesn't work as well as they thought (and that is more than a possibility).

I will never give them Scola 'cause I think is too much of value, expecially in a potential combo with Manu next year (that, finally, should be his first one in a S.A. jersey) and 'cause of the risk of facing him with a vengeance anytime he plays against us...that means at least three/four times in the regular season
However, I don't think Sancto would be so high on him, having now both Thomas and SAR playing quite like the kind of game Scola does...

[Mr. Body]

Mr. Body, Imho Wells in never gonna accept something less than what Sancto has offered to him...that means something in the level of a little more than 7 millions a year for five years.

Who do you see offering him 7M/yr? There's no team on the market that will do this. Haven't you already marked how few teams there are that will be interested in him? Bonzi might not be very happy with that amount, but he overestimated how much money he can make. At this point, I'd think he'd be very happy to make around the MLE.

I believe the Barry contract would put Sacramento very close to the luxury tax, if not over. That means they would be paying double for Eric Williams, a player they in no way need. Even if they somehow traded him during the year, they would have to take on that same amount of salary. $8M+ in cost for nothing.

I wouldn't include Scola in this trade, either. If Sacramento wants Barry, Bonzi is worth a short-term risk, but IMO only at Barry's contract level $5M/yr for no more than 3 years. If Bonzi really thinks he can make a better contract in the next couple summers, more power to him and give him a 3yr with a player option on the last, or even each one.

In sum, the Spurs IMO don't risk spending $8M on a malcontent. No one anywhere is going to pay BW that, anyway. If he wants to play for the Spurs, it will need to be for short years.

[Beer is Good]

Toronto... :smokin
:lmao :lmao :lmao :lmao That stiff Rasho couldn't get physical if his life depended on it.

[wildbill2u]

See what our problem is--Bowen is so good at what he does, we're reluctant to trade him for a permanent solution. Maybe he's not as good as we think and wouldn't fit into another teams game plan as well as he does in the Sours system.

As a result, we try to cobble up all kinds of odds and ends to get someone to play behind him that we think could give him some rest or whatever. Bowen and Finley are a better than OK tandem at SF and one that most teams would love to have.

If we come up short against some teams in matchups--like the Mavs and Dirk-- then we just have to concede him his points, hope Bowen can slow him down some and rely on the other guys for the win.

Would have worked in the last finals too if Many hadn't blown it. But we have to realize these guys are competitors and are going to make a mistake now and then.

[venitian navigator]

Who do you see offering him 7M/yr? There's no team on the market that will do this. Haven't you already marked how few teams there are that will be interested in him? Bonzi might not be very happy with that amount, but he overestimated how much money he can make. At this point, I'd think he'd be very happy to make around the MLE.

I believe the Barry contract would put Sacramento very close to the luxury tax, if not over. That means they would be paying double for Eric Williams, a player they in no way need. Even if they somehow traded him during the year, they would have to take on that same amount of salary. $8M+ in cost for nothing.

I wouldn't include Scola in this trade, either. If Sacramento wants Barry, Bonzi is worth a short-term risk, but IMO only at Barry's contract level $5M/yr for no more than 3 years. If Bonzi really thinks he can make a better contract in the next couple summers, more power to him and give him a 3yr with a player option on the last, or even each one.

In sum, the Spurs IMO don't risk spending $8M on a malcontent. No one anywhere is going to pay BW that, anyway. If he wants to play for the Spurs, it will need to be for short years.


I agree with a lot of the things you said, expecially with the short years (two, max three);I checked that Sancto money list and they are near the salary cap (already more than 60 millions without Q. Douby and some other minor players) : so the Barry contract, already, could put them probably over the lux tax area.
You say take him for three yaers at 5 millions a year....
That would be awesome...but difficult.
This offer is by far under of what Sac.to offered him and under what other teams still have the chance of offering : see, the mid level exception (more than 5 millions)...for five years.
And, at the end of the game, money (if significant one) rules.
That's why I still see the chance of the sign and trade I talked before.
Other reasons :
a) BW pride will be saved and, for that, he could and should be realy thankful to the F.O. and the team (sometimes this open a "window light" in a player's cloudy mind).
b) in case of a sign and trade for Barry and E. Will., thanks to the "houston's" rule, Sac.to could just choose to play only barry and cut the contract of E.Will (a la Finley) and not pay the lux tax but just the amount of that contract (thay could do it, imho, in case they like the sweets we could give them...like 1 or 2 second choices).

However, if he's, at least, not a totally crazy person, and if his market situation remains the same, he should be happy also at the perspective you made... another point is that, for this year, nothing chances in our pay roll (we should pay E. Will contract) so the "8 million" risk just start for the next one/two years....