ducks
08-07-2006, 05:50 PM
ESPN NBA Insider - 8/7/06
Bleak outlook for '07 free agents
posted: Monday, August 7, 2006 | Feedback | Print Entry
Wait until next year! That's the mantra of a number of poor NBA teams that struck out in the free agent market this summer. As loyal fans howl about the lack of improvement from their team this summer, promises of cap room and a much improved free agent class are intermingled with a call for patience.
After yawning our way through this year's lackluster free agency period, the big question is: Will things be much better next year?
The answer isn't going to be a popular one.
The bottom line is that very few teams will have the cash to make major upgrades to their roster via free agency next summer.
As John Hollinger has laid out, the free agent class of 2007 is better than this year's weak crop. There will be some solid unrestricted free agents (assuming they opt out of their current deals), like Rashard Lewis, Mike Bibby and Vince Carter, who may decide to try to finish their careers elsewhere.
The group of restricted free agents will be headlined by Boris Diaw, Josh Howard, Kirk Hinrich and, believe it or not, Darko Milicic. But as we've seen in almost every free agent period, there aren't many decent restricted free agents you can break free from the grasp of the teams that hold their rights.
That leads to a decent group of players like Gerald Wallace, Desmond Mason, Jamaal Magliore, Maurice Wiliams, Morris Peterson and Primoz Brezec who will be unrestricted and will look to go to the highest bidder.
But the question you really have to ask about any free agent class is: Who's going to pay them?
If current cap positions hold true next summer, only one team, the Charlotte Bobcats, will have max cap room. As it stands right now, assuming a modest $2 million increase in the salary cap next season, the Bobcats could be staring at a whopping $27 million in cap room. The nice thing for Charlotte (assuming owner Bob Johnson, who's getting a rep for being cheap, spends it) is that they'll have virtually no competition for the top talent in the class.
Several other teams will have some room, but not enough to lure the top free agents.
Of the other teams with cap room, the Grizzlies appear to be in the best shape. Eddie Jones' big contract comes off the books next summer giving them some real cap flexibility for the first time in Jerry West's tenure. They could have roughly $10 to $11 million in cap room. That's not enough to sign a player to a max contract, but it can get them close. Then again, Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley has been pushing West to cut payroll, so there's no guarantee he's going to hand out another huge contract next summer.
The Bulls, believe it or not, could be a whopping $20 million under the cap again next year despite the fact that they inked Ben Wallace to a huge $60 million deal this summer. However, don't throw a big party just yet Bulls fans. Add in a high draft pick (the Bulls have the ability to swap their first-round pick with the Knicks next year) and new contracts for Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni and the Bulls probably will have a little under $5 million in actual room.
The Sonics could also have around $20 million in cap room if they let all of their free agents walk away. But that seems pretty unlikely. Rashard Lewis is likely to opt out of his contract and Nick Collison and Luke Ridnour are both restricted free agents next summer. And none of that takes into account the status of Chris Wilcox.
If he signs a long term deal this summer, you'll have to subtract his salary from the cap room. If Wilcox takes the Sonics' one-year tender, he's an unrestricted free agent next summer. If they sign all of them, their cap room is totally gone.
The key will be Lewis. There are already rumblings out of Seattle that he's looking for a new home. As we've documented there aren't many teams that have the room to get him without working out some sort of sign-and-trade with Seattle. Still, I'd watch this one closely. He could be trade bait in February if the Sonics think they'll lose him for nothing.
The Magic could have up to $15 million in room next summer once Grant Hill's huge contract finally comes off the books. That could make them a major player in the free agent market with one pretty large caveat -- Darko Milicic becomes a restricted free agent next summer.
It's just too early to predict what Milicic's asking price will be next year. If he has only moderate improvement he's still likely to garner an offer of at least the mid-level exception in the open market. Seven-footers have a way of doing that. If he shows rapid improvement, he could cost the Magic a lot of money. Nene got a $60 million deal for waving a towel last year. You can imagine what a 21-year old, 7-foot-2 big guy could get if he has a big season.
All of that means that it's still too early to tell whether the Magic will be big players in the open market. Two top free agents, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis, have both expressed interest in playing there. But will the Magic have the cash to pay them? Right now it looks doubtful unless the Magic will be willing to let Darko walk away.
The Hornets have roughly $12 to $13 million in cap room next year, but they too have several significant free agents to re-sign. Starting power forward David West will be a restricted free agent but could command a deal starting at $6 to $7 million on the open market. Desmond Mason will be an unrestricted free agent, though he probably has mid-level value in next year's market.
The Bucks will also have between $12 to $13 million in cap room, but they also have a significant free agent to re-sign -- Maurice Williams. However, Williams is unlikely to command a starting salary of much more than $5 to $6 million, giving the Bucks enough cap room to offer a free agent more than the mid-level exception.
The Hawks are looking at around $8 to $10 million in cap room next summer. That's not enough money to lure a top free agent, let alone the elite point guard and center the team still lacks.
The Raptors are also eyeing around $8 to $10 million next year, but they'll likely use much of it to re-sign unrestricted free agent Morris Peterson and restricted free agent T. J. Ford.
The bottom line is that for top free agents like Chauncey Billups, Bibby, Lewis and Carter to cash in, they have to get a team to offer them a huge chunk of cash the way the Bulls did with Ben Wallace and the Hornets did with Peja Stojakovic this summer. When you look at the situation with each team, however, the Bobcats and possibly the Grizzlies are the only two teams that will have the flexibility to do it without some sort of sign-and-trade.
Given the budget conscious philosophy of the Bobcats and where they are in the developmental cycle, it's hard to see them throwing $12 to $14 million a year at Billups or Carter. The Grizzlies may be more willing to pull the trigger on a veteran big name, but they'll only have money for one guy.
The news isn't much better for the mid-level players. One thing that hasn't gotten much mention is the precarious cap situation of most teams in the league next year.
A stunning 21 teams will have payrolls exceeding $60 million dollars next season. That means that a full mid-level offer to a player would likely put them above the luxury tax threshold. A few teams, like the Knicks, 76ers, Mavericks and Blazers, have shown a willingness to pay the tax. But most teams avoid it like the plague.
That could lead to very stagnant market of mid-level players in next year's free agent market.
I don't want to be the one to rain on next year's free agent parade, but unless some teams make some major moves this summer to clear some cap space, it could be another blue, blue summer for teams looking to make a major jump in the standings next season.
Bleak outlook for '07 free agents
posted: Monday, August 7, 2006 | Feedback | Print Entry
Wait until next year! That's the mantra of a number of poor NBA teams that struck out in the free agent market this summer. As loyal fans howl about the lack of improvement from their team this summer, promises of cap room and a much improved free agent class are intermingled with a call for patience.
After yawning our way through this year's lackluster free agency period, the big question is: Will things be much better next year?
The answer isn't going to be a popular one.
The bottom line is that very few teams will have the cash to make major upgrades to their roster via free agency next summer.
As John Hollinger has laid out, the free agent class of 2007 is better than this year's weak crop. There will be some solid unrestricted free agents (assuming they opt out of their current deals), like Rashard Lewis, Mike Bibby and Vince Carter, who may decide to try to finish their careers elsewhere.
The group of restricted free agents will be headlined by Boris Diaw, Josh Howard, Kirk Hinrich and, believe it or not, Darko Milicic. But as we've seen in almost every free agent period, there aren't many decent restricted free agents you can break free from the grasp of the teams that hold their rights.
That leads to a decent group of players like Gerald Wallace, Desmond Mason, Jamaal Magliore, Maurice Wiliams, Morris Peterson and Primoz Brezec who will be unrestricted and will look to go to the highest bidder.
But the question you really have to ask about any free agent class is: Who's going to pay them?
If current cap positions hold true next summer, only one team, the Charlotte Bobcats, will have max cap room. As it stands right now, assuming a modest $2 million increase in the salary cap next season, the Bobcats could be staring at a whopping $27 million in cap room. The nice thing for Charlotte (assuming owner Bob Johnson, who's getting a rep for being cheap, spends it) is that they'll have virtually no competition for the top talent in the class.
Several other teams will have some room, but not enough to lure the top free agents.
Of the other teams with cap room, the Grizzlies appear to be in the best shape. Eddie Jones' big contract comes off the books next summer giving them some real cap flexibility for the first time in Jerry West's tenure. They could have roughly $10 to $11 million in cap room. That's not enough to sign a player to a max contract, but it can get them close. Then again, Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley has been pushing West to cut payroll, so there's no guarantee he's going to hand out another huge contract next summer.
The Bulls, believe it or not, could be a whopping $20 million under the cap again next year despite the fact that they inked Ben Wallace to a huge $60 million deal this summer. However, don't throw a big party just yet Bulls fans. Add in a high draft pick (the Bulls have the ability to swap their first-round pick with the Knicks next year) and new contracts for Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni and the Bulls probably will have a little under $5 million in actual room.
The Sonics could also have around $20 million in cap room if they let all of their free agents walk away. But that seems pretty unlikely. Rashard Lewis is likely to opt out of his contract and Nick Collison and Luke Ridnour are both restricted free agents next summer. And none of that takes into account the status of Chris Wilcox.
If he signs a long term deal this summer, you'll have to subtract his salary from the cap room. If Wilcox takes the Sonics' one-year tender, he's an unrestricted free agent next summer. If they sign all of them, their cap room is totally gone.
The key will be Lewis. There are already rumblings out of Seattle that he's looking for a new home. As we've documented there aren't many teams that have the room to get him without working out some sort of sign-and-trade with Seattle. Still, I'd watch this one closely. He could be trade bait in February if the Sonics think they'll lose him for nothing.
The Magic could have up to $15 million in room next summer once Grant Hill's huge contract finally comes off the books. That could make them a major player in the free agent market with one pretty large caveat -- Darko Milicic becomes a restricted free agent next summer.
It's just too early to predict what Milicic's asking price will be next year. If he has only moderate improvement he's still likely to garner an offer of at least the mid-level exception in the open market. Seven-footers have a way of doing that. If he shows rapid improvement, he could cost the Magic a lot of money. Nene got a $60 million deal for waving a towel last year. You can imagine what a 21-year old, 7-foot-2 big guy could get if he has a big season.
All of that means that it's still too early to tell whether the Magic will be big players in the open market. Two top free agents, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis, have both expressed interest in playing there. But will the Magic have the cash to pay them? Right now it looks doubtful unless the Magic will be willing to let Darko walk away.
The Hornets have roughly $12 to $13 million in cap room next year, but they too have several significant free agents to re-sign. Starting power forward David West will be a restricted free agent but could command a deal starting at $6 to $7 million on the open market. Desmond Mason will be an unrestricted free agent, though he probably has mid-level value in next year's market.
The Bucks will also have between $12 to $13 million in cap room, but they also have a significant free agent to re-sign -- Maurice Williams. However, Williams is unlikely to command a starting salary of much more than $5 to $6 million, giving the Bucks enough cap room to offer a free agent more than the mid-level exception.
The Hawks are looking at around $8 to $10 million in cap room next summer. That's not enough money to lure a top free agent, let alone the elite point guard and center the team still lacks.
The Raptors are also eyeing around $8 to $10 million next year, but they'll likely use much of it to re-sign unrestricted free agent Morris Peterson and restricted free agent T. J. Ford.
The bottom line is that for top free agents like Chauncey Billups, Bibby, Lewis and Carter to cash in, they have to get a team to offer them a huge chunk of cash the way the Bulls did with Ben Wallace and the Hornets did with Peja Stojakovic this summer. When you look at the situation with each team, however, the Bobcats and possibly the Grizzlies are the only two teams that will have the flexibility to do it without some sort of sign-and-trade.
Given the budget conscious philosophy of the Bobcats and where they are in the developmental cycle, it's hard to see them throwing $12 to $14 million a year at Billups or Carter. The Grizzlies may be more willing to pull the trigger on a veteran big name, but they'll only have money for one guy.
The news isn't much better for the mid-level players. One thing that hasn't gotten much mention is the precarious cap situation of most teams in the league next year.
A stunning 21 teams will have payrolls exceeding $60 million dollars next season. That means that a full mid-level offer to a player would likely put them above the luxury tax threshold. A few teams, like the Knicks, 76ers, Mavericks and Blazers, have shown a willingness to pay the tax. But most teams avoid it like the plague.
That could lead to very stagnant market of mid-level players in next year's free agent market.
I don't want to be the one to rain on next year's free agent parade, but unless some teams make some major moves this summer to clear some cap space, it could be another blue, blue summer for teams looking to make a major jump in the standings next season.