big3bigD
08-10-2006, 11:51 AM
Next summer's free-agent crop has difference makersBy John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive
If you're looking for a silver lining to the most moribund NBA offseason in memory, try this: Next year ought to be better in the sense that, while the free-agent class of '06 was a relative dud, several top talents figure to be on the market.
As many as six players worthy of max or near-max contracts could be available, while several others could add to that list with strong 2006-07 campaigns. The most notable ones all have one-year player options for 2007-08 that they would be unlikely to exercise, including Detroit's Chauncey Billups, Seattle's Rashard Lewis, Sacramento's Mike Bibby, Washington's Antawn Jamison and Charlotte's Gerald Wallace.
Alas, that list doesn't include a few players who technically will be free agents in 2007 but are likely to sign extensions later this fall. Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki is the prominent case, but he's virtually certain to ink the same three-year extension that Paul Pierce signed with Boston.
Additionally, several players on rookie contracts are likely to be locked up by this fall, including Dallas' Josh Howard, Chicago's Kirk Hinrich, New Orleans/Oklahoma City's David West, Phoenix's Boris Diaw, Boston's Kendrick Perkins, Toronto's T.J. Ford, and Seattle's Luke Ridnour and Nick Collison. And of course, the big names from the great 2003 draft already have extended their deals.
On the other hand, players such as Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden could end up being part of the free-agent class if they settle for one-year tenders from their current clubs. That possibility looks increasingly likely as the summer drags on.
Because of the player options and extensions, we have to do a bit of reading tea leaves at this point to determine next summer's free-agent crop. Nonetheless, using a little bit of common sense we already can see the outlines of a very strong class. Here's how the market's top 25 players stand at the moment:
(p) -- Has player option for 2007-08
(r) -- Has rookie contract that could be extended before season
(t) -- Would have to sign one-year tender to be free agent next summer
1. Chauncey Billups (p)
The Pistons inked Billups with their midlevel exception three years ago in one of the all-time great free-agent heists, but next summer it will be time to pay the piper. And yes, he's ahead of Carter in the pecking order right now. He's more durable, plays harder and was better in 2005-06.
2. Vince Carter (p)
The Nets could give him a three-year extension for the maximum this summer, but neither side seems to be in any hurry to get it done. The delay is stoking fears that Carter will hit the market a year from now and return to North Carolina to play for the Bobcats, who will be flush with cap space.
3. Rashard Lewis (p)
Joke of the week is that Lewis will ditch the Sonics next summer and sign with the Hornets -- that way maybe he won't have to leave Seattle. In all seriousness, the Sonics' financial position means that it's likely Lewis' last go-round in the Northwest, and he could be an intriguing piece of trade bait come February.
4. Gerald Wallace (p)
The league's most underrated player, Wallace virtually was ignored as a free agent a year ago. Don't count on NBA GMs to repeat that mistake. With a strong 2006-07, the scandalously underpaid forward should finally get his due.
5. Darko Milicic (r)
Because he's played so little, the Magic and Milicic already have more or less agreed to let him play out this season to determine his market value. Milicic is seven-feet tall and still only 21 years old, so if he plays as well as he did at the end of last season, he'll make himself a very wealthy man.
6. Drew Gooden (t)
With negotiations with the Cavs at a standstill and the sign-and-trade market already saturated (just ask Al Harrington and Bonzi Wells), it seems like Gooden will have to settle for the one-year tender and try again next summer.
7. Mike Bibby (p)
Bibby is a 50-50 proposition to opt out if he plays as well as he did last year. On the one hand, he probably won't make quite as much annually as he does on his current seven-year, $81 million deal. On the other hand, if he plays out the final two years and then tries to hit the free-agent market, he risks missing out on a big payday if his game declines. My guess is he takes the bird in hand and opts out.
8. Antawn Jamison (p)
Jamison is in a position similar to Bibby's, except with only one year between his opt-out and the end of the contract. He's due to make the maximum in 2007-08, and without a strong campaign this year will fall far short of that in free agency. On the other hand, he could see next summer as his last shot for a big long-term deal and opt out anyway.
9. Chris Kaman (r)
He's on a rookie contract and could get extended this fall, but word on the street is that the two sides are miles apart on what Kaman's market value is. My guess is that the $60 million deal Nene signed with Denver probably isn't helping to close the gap any, so Kaman might need to ink an offer sheet to get paid.
10. Anderson Varejao
As a second-round pick, Varejao's contract doesn't come with the extension options that first-rounders have. Thus, the big-haired Brazilian will be a restricted free agent next summer and should attract plenty of attention.
11. Chris Wilcox (t)
Much like Gooden, Wilcox probably will have to settle for the one-year tender. In his case, however, it might prove more costly. Wilcox was trying to cash in on the first sustained stretch of excellence in his four-year career and might not be able to give an encore performance.
12. Maurice Williams
Now that the starting point guard job in Milwaukee is all his, Williams' price tag is likely to shoot northward. This is especially true since the Bucks should be better this year and Williams has improved every year in the league.
13. Grant Hill
Anything involving Hill is always a major "if" because he's so injury-prone, but if he can stay healthy and play to his usual standard, he should be a very attractive commodity.
14. Andres Nocioni
Thanks to his tenacity and ability to play multiple positions, the Wild Bull of the Pampas' next deal should double the $3.03 million per annum he's making now.
15. Antonio McDyess (p)
Health problems used to be the biggest concerns with the Dice man, but he's gone two years without so much as a hangnail. If he has one more of those, he'll opt out of his deal and get what's likely to be his last long-term contract.
16. Primoz Brezec (p)
Another foreign import on a bargain contract, the 7-2 Brezec had to look approvingly at the deals Joel Przybilla and Nazr Mohammed got this summer. And unlike those two, Brezec can score.
17. Chris Mihm
Both Mihm and Brezec have to be hoping like crazy that Chris Kaman signs an extension, because it would leave those two as the only true centers available on the market, increasing the likelihood that at least one gets a completely insane contract.
18. Morris Peterson
One of the few Raptors who can be bothered to play defense, Peterson's toughness and shooting would make him a great glue guy on a contending team. However, it's also possible Toronto will extend his deal before the season starts.
19. Jerry Stackhouse
Stackhouse's name recognition and scoring ability might get him a big contract, especially for a team that's in need of bench scoring. On the other hand, he'll be 32, he shoots a low percentage, and he misses 25 games every year with bad hammies.
20. Earl Boykins (p)
Another player who might as well opt out because his current contract pays so little, Boykins got shot-happy last year and will have to rein in his shoot-first tendencies a bit if he really wants to make an impression on his future employers.
21. Joe Smith
A forgotten man after missing much of last season with an elbow injury, Smith could be changing addresses long before his contract expires. But he remains a solid player and should get some attention next summer.
22. Michael Sweetney
Realistically, a year from now Sweetney will either be 20 pounds lighter and one of the top 12 players on this list, or 20 pounds heavier and off the list entirely. For now, we'll split the difference.
23. Theodoros Papaloukas
The 6-7 Greek native won Euroleague MVP honors after leading CSKA Moscow to the title. I haven't heard his name come up much in NBA circles, possibly due to a poor 2004 Olympics, but he's a heck of a player. He's a big point guard with a great feel for the game -- reminiscent of how Marko Jaric would be if he (a) had a pulse and (b) looked a little bit like Cookie Monster.
24. Jamaal Magloire
His performance has fallen a long, long way the past two years, which kind of goes without saying when a former All-Star is traded for Steve Blake and Brian Skinner. Fortunately for him, centers never go out of style.
25. Eddie Jones
I'm not sure how much Jones has left in the tank, but if he has a strong year in Memphis he could get some attention next summer. Because he defends and can make outside shots, a lot of teams will see him as a missing piece to their puzzle.
Best of the rest: Steve Blake, Ruben Patterson, Desmond Mason, Travis Outlaw (r), Matt Bonner, James Posey, Mickael Pietrus (r), Matt Carroll, Austin Croshere
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here
ESPN Insider
Archive
If you're looking for a silver lining to the most moribund NBA offseason in memory, try this: Next year ought to be better in the sense that, while the free-agent class of '06 was a relative dud, several top talents figure to be on the market.
As many as six players worthy of max or near-max contracts could be available, while several others could add to that list with strong 2006-07 campaigns. The most notable ones all have one-year player options for 2007-08 that they would be unlikely to exercise, including Detroit's Chauncey Billups, Seattle's Rashard Lewis, Sacramento's Mike Bibby, Washington's Antawn Jamison and Charlotte's Gerald Wallace.
Alas, that list doesn't include a few players who technically will be free agents in 2007 but are likely to sign extensions later this fall. Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki is the prominent case, but he's virtually certain to ink the same three-year extension that Paul Pierce signed with Boston.
Additionally, several players on rookie contracts are likely to be locked up by this fall, including Dallas' Josh Howard, Chicago's Kirk Hinrich, New Orleans/Oklahoma City's David West, Phoenix's Boris Diaw, Boston's Kendrick Perkins, Toronto's T.J. Ford, and Seattle's Luke Ridnour and Nick Collison. And of course, the big names from the great 2003 draft already have extended their deals.
On the other hand, players such as Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden could end up being part of the free-agent class if they settle for one-year tenders from their current clubs. That possibility looks increasingly likely as the summer drags on.
Because of the player options and extensions, we have to do a bit of reading tea leaves at this point to determine next summer's free-agent crop. Nonetheless, using a little bit of common sense we already can see the outlines of a very strong class. Here's how the market's top 25 players stand at the moment:
(p) -- Has player option for 2007-08
(r) -- Has rookie contract that could be extended before season
(t) -- Would have to sign one-year tender to be free agent next summer
1. Chauncey Billups (p)
The Pistons inked Billups with their midlevel exception three years ago in one of the all-time great free-agent heists, but next summer it will be time to pay the piper. And yes, he's ahead of Carter in the pecking order right now. He's more durable, plays harder and was better in 2005-06.
2. Vince Carter (p)
The Nets could give him a three-year extension for the maximum this summer, but neither side seems to be in any hurry to get it done. The delay is stoking fears that Carter will hit the market a year from now and return to North Carolina to play for the Bobcats, who will be flush with cap space.
3. Rashard Lewis (p)
Joke of the week is that Lewis will ditch the Sonics next summer and sign with the Hornets -- that way maybe he won't have to leave Seattle. In all seriousness, the Sonics' financial position means that it's likely Lewis' last go-round in the Northwest, and he could be an intriguing piece of trade bait come February.
4. Gerald Wallace (p)
The league's most underrated player, Wallace virtually was ignored as a free agent a year ago. Don't count on NBA GMs to repeat that mistake. With a strong 2006-07, the scandalously underpaid forward should finally get his due.
5. Darko Milicic (r)
Because he's played so little, the Magic and Milicic already have more or less agreed to let him play out this season to determine his market value. Milicic is seven-feet tall and still only 21 years old, so if he plays as well as he did at the end of last season, he'll make himself a very wealthy man.
6. Drew Gooden (t)
With negotiations with the Cavs at a standstill and the sign-and-trade market already saturated (just ask Al Harrington and Bonzi Wells), it seems like Gooden will have to settle for the one-year tender and try again next summer.
7. Mike Bibby (p)
Bibby is a 50-50 proposition to opt out if he plays as well as he did last year. On the one hand, he probably won't make quite as much annually as he does on his current seven-year, $81 million deal. On the other hand, if he plays out the final two years and then tries to hit the free-agent market, he risks missing out on a big payday if his game declines. My guess is he takes the bird in hand and opts out.
8. Antawn Jamison (p)
Jamison is in a position similar to Bibby's, except with only one year between his opt-out and the end of the contract. He's due to make the maximum in 2007-08, and without a strong campaign this year will fall far short of that in free agency. On the other hand, he could see next summer as his last shot for a big long-term deal and opt out anyway.
9. Chris Kaman (r)
He's on a rookie contract and could get extended this fall, but word on the street is that the two sides are miles apart on what Kaman's market value is. My guess is that the $60 million deal Nene signed with Denver probably isn't helping to close the gap any, so Kaman might need to ink an offer sheet to get paid.
10. Anderson Varejao
As a second-round pick, Varejao's contract doesn't come with the extension options that first-rounders have. Thus, the big-haired Brazilian will be a restricted free agent next summer and should attract plenty of attention.
11. Chris Wilcox (t)
Much like Gooden, Wilcox probably will have to settle for the one-year tender. In his case, however, it might prove more costly. Wilcox was trying to cash in on the first sustained stretch of excellence in his four-year career and might not be able to give an encore performance.
12. Maurice Williams
Now that the starting point guard job in Milwaukee is all his, Williams' price tag is likely to shoot northward. This is especially true since the Bucks should be better this year and Williams has improved every year in the league.
13. Grant Hill
Anything involving Hill is always a major "if" because he's so injury-prone, but if he can stay healthy and play to his usual standard, he should be a very attractive commodity.
14. Andres Nocioni
Thanks to his tenacity and ability to play multiple positions, the Wild Bull of the Pampas' next deal should double the $3.03 million per annum he's making now.
15. Antonio McDyess (p)
Health problems used to be the biggest concerns with the Dice man, but he's gone two years without so much as a hangnail. If he has one more of those, he'll opt out of his deal and get what's likely to be his last long-term contract.
16. Primoz Brezec (p)
Another foreign import on a bargain contract, the 7-2 Brezec had to look approvingly at the deals Joel Przybilla and Nazr Mohammed got this summer. And unlike those two, Brezec can score.
17. Chris Mihm
Both Mihm and Brezec have to be hoping like crazy that Chris Kaman signs an extension, because it would leave those two as the only true centers available on the market, increasing the likelihood that at least one gets a completely insane contract.
18. Morris Peterson
One of the few Raptors who can be bothered to play defense, Peterson's toughness and shooting would make him a great glue guy on a contending team. However, it's also possible Toronto will extend his deal before the season starts.
19. Jerry Stackhouse
Stackhouse's name recognition and scoring ability might get him a big contract, especially for a team that's in need of bench scoring. On the other hand, he'll be 32, he shoots a low percentage, and he misses 25 games every year with bad hammies.
20. Earl Boykins (p)
Another player who might as well opt out because his current contract pays so little, Boykins got shot-happy last year and will have to rein in his shoot-first tendencies a bit if he really wants to make an impression on his future employers.
21. Joe Smith
A forgotten man after missing much of last season with an elbow injury, Smith could be changing addresses long before his contract expires. But he remains a solid player and should get some attention next summer.
22. Michael Sweetney
Realistically, a year from now Sweetney will either be 20 pounds lighter and one of the top 12 players on this list, or 20 pounds heavier and off the list entirely. For now, we'll split the difference.
23. Theodoros Papaloukas
The 6-7 Greek native won Euroleague MVP honors after leading CSKA Moscow to the title. I haven't heard his name come up much in NBA circles, possibly due to a poor 2004 Olympics, but he's a heck of a player. He's a big point guard with a great feel for the game -- reminiscent of how Marko Jaric would be if he (a) had a pulse and (b) looked a little bit like Cookie Monster.
24. Jamaal Magloire
His performance has fallen a long, long way the past two years, which kind of goes without saying when a former All-Star is traded for Steve Blake and Brian Skinner. Fortunately for him, centers never go out of style.
25. Eddie Jones
I'm not sure how much Jones has left in the tank, but if he has a strong year in Memphis he could get some attention next summer. Because he defends and can make outside shots, a lot of teams will see him as a missing piece to their puzzle.
Best of the rest: Steve Blake, Ruben Patterson, Desmond Mason, Travis Outlaw (r), Matt Bonner, James Posey, Mickael Pietrus (r), Matt Carroll, Austin Croshere
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here