PDA

View Full Version : Why the cease-fire was a bad idea



Crookshanks
08-14-2006, 03:12 PM
Nasrallah: We attained historic victory
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
BEIRUT, Lebanon


Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah said Monday his guerrillas had achieved a "strategic, historic victory" against Israel.

"We came out victorious in a war in which big Arab armies were defeated (before)," the black-turbaned cleric said.

He further declared that now was not the time to debate the disarmament of his guerrilla fighters, saying the issue should be done in secret sessions of the government to avoid serving Israeli interests.

"This is immoral, incorrect and inappropriate," he said. "It is wrong timing on the psychological and moral level particularly before the cease-fire," he said in reference to calls from critics for the guerrillas to disarm.

Nasrallah, speaking on the day a cease-fire took effect - ending 34 days of brutal fighting between Hizbullah and Israel - called Monday "a great day."

"We are today before a strategic, historic victory, without exaggeration," he said in a taped speech on Hizbullah's al-Manar TV.

He declared that the massive destruction inflicted upon Israel was an expression of what he called its "failure and impotency."

He promised the Shi'ite organization would help the Lebanese people rebuild, and estimated some 15,000 housing units had been completely destroyed.

"The enemy destroyed thousands of houses in the south, the Bekaa and the southern suburbs," Nasrallah said.

Hizbullah 'victory' boosts extremists
By KHALED ABU TOAMEH
RAMALLAH

At least 50 newborn babies in the West Bank and Gaza Strip have been named after Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah over the past month, sources in the Palestinian Authority Health Ministry told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.

The move is an indication of his growing popularity of Nasrallah among Palestinians and Arabs in general, many of whom hail him for merely daring to stand up to Israel. As the war nears its end, some moderate Arabs expressed fear that the widely-perceived conviction on the Arab street that Hizbullah had won would enhance the position of those who argue that Israel can be defeated or destroyed.

"Almost every day we have a case of parents asking to name their newborn babies after Nasrallah," one source said. "This reminds me of the days when Palestinians used to name their children after Saddam Hussein because of the missile attacks on Israel during the Gulf War."

Naming babies after Nasrallah is only one of the ways many Palestinians have been expressing their gratitude for the Shi'ite leader for firing thousands of rockets and missiles at Israel and for inflicting heavy casualties on the IDF. Nasrallah's posters and the yellow flag of Hizbullah have flooded local markets. CDs containing new songs heaping praise on Nasrallah and Hizbullah are being sold on the streets of Palestinian cities for NIS 10.

One of the most popular, Welcome the Hawk of Lebanon, includes 14 songs and parts of speeches delivered by Nasrallah since the war broke out. Some of the songs ridicule Arab governments and leaders for failing to join the fight, while others urge the Palestinian factions to copy Hizbullah's tactics and step up attacks on Israel.

Expressing enormous admiration for Hizbullah, Palestinians across the political spectrum agreed that Israel had suffered a humiliating defeat.

"This war has shown once again that Israel is much weaker than it is perceived, especially in the Arab world," said Ziad Abdel Fattah, a Fatah operative from a village near Ramallah. "Other than kill hundreds of civilians, Israel failed to achieve most of its goals, particularly the destruction of Hizbullah. Everyone saw how Israeli soldiers were forced to retreat in the face of the heroes of Hizbullah."

Muhammad Atiyeh, who describes himself as a Hamas supporter, is convinced that the war in Lebanon could signal the beginning of the demise of Israel. "After 30 days of fighting, Israel had to beg the Americans for a cease-fire," he said. "Had it not been for the US, Israel would have vanished a long time ago. We have seen in recent years that Israel does not have the capability to confront Muslim warriors from Hamas and Hizbullah. The day will come when all Muslims will unite and wipe Israel off the map."

Echoing a similar view, Palestinian Authority Minister of Culture Atallah Abu al-Sabah said that the war in Lebanon has proven that it's only a matter of time before Israel disappears.

"The saying that Israel is here to stay has proven to be a false one," he told a pro-Hizbullah rally in Gaza City. "Israel can be defeated and this is what the Arab regimes should know. It's time to remove the dust from Arab weapons and to use them to liberate Palestine and the Aksa Mosque."

He expressed his wish that "every Arab capital would have its own Hizbullah... Hizbullah has taught Israel an unforgettable lesson and we hope that all the Arab countries will start recruiting and training young men to fight like the great Hizbullah fighters."

Palestinian political analysts said the fact that many Palestinians and Arabs are convinced that Hizbullah had won the war will boost the popularity of extremist groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad and al-Qaida.

"This war will have negative repercussions on the Palestinian arena," said former PA minister and political analyst Ghassan Khatib. "The radicals who believe that force is the only way to resolve the conflict will be strengthened as a result of this war."

Arab commentators were quick to declare over the weekend that Hizbullah had won the war.

Writing in the Mathaba News Network, columnist Zaher Mahruqi said the Hizbullah "victory" will boost the status of jihadists around the world.

"As the jihadists movements prove their potency on the battleground in southern Lebanon, the rest of the jihadists in the world win, at the very least, a psychological victory and a renewed sense of legitimacy," he said. "After all, Hizbullah, which was coined to be a terrorist group by world powers, is now viewed as a legitimate and capable resistance movement."

Noting the fact that al-Qaida had come out in support of Hizbullah, Mahruqi continued: "This symbolic unification, which came at a time when the Arab regimes had been stripped of final grain of manhood when they stood helpless while the children of Kana fell, entails the rise of jihadists and the beginning of a free fall of [pro- Western] Arab leaderships.

"Hizbullah won the war and in doing so has given hope to the Arab and Muslim world that where there is faith, will and preparation, nothing is impossible. The army that was thought to be too powerful for the 250 million Arabs combined has been put in check by a group of less than 10,000 men. That is indeed legendary and has many implications."

====================================

The cease-fire will just give Iran and Syria time to re-arm Hezbollah so that they can attack again. Anyone who thinks this cease-fire will last any significant period of time is either naive or an idiot!

The Arabs have one goal - the total annihilation of Israel. And they won't stop until they have achieved that goal. Israel should've ignored the rest of the world and bombed Hezbollah out of existance - and all the "civilians" who support them can die too!!

whottt
08-14-2006, 04:54 PM
So you mean they don't want peace and cease fire?

What a surprise.


Doesn't matter, they'll believe their own hype, attack again and when Israel sends Lebanon back to the stone age they'll again beg the UN to come save their asses and bemoan the horrible loss of civillian life.


Just notice how everyone talks about how horrible the Israelis are for the entireity of the war....and now all of a sudden(after Israel gives the cease fire everyone was begging for) they were the ones getting beat.

whottt
08-14-2006, 04:57 PM
BTW, I agree the cease fire was a bad idea...the only way these guys will accept peace is if they are dead...Israel should have just kept going until there were no spin doctors left.

JoeChalupa
08-14-2006, 06:06 PM
Anytime War is stopped and people stop dying, if only temporarily, cannot be a bad thing, IMO.

But I know what you mean.

boutons_
08-14-2006, 06:12 PM
Meanwhile, back at Lying Asshole Ranch, cowboy and brush-chopper extraordinaire dubya is spinning his own tale:

Bush Says Hezbollah Has Been Defeated by Israel

By Daniela Deane
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, August 14, 2006; 5:34 PM

President Bush today said Hezbollah had been defeated by Israel despite the group's claims of victory and blamed Hezbollah, emboldened by its "state sponsors" Iran and Syria, for the current conflict in Lebanon.

"It was Hezbollah that caused the destruction," Bush said in a speech at the State Department. "They're claiming victory. How can you claim victory when you were once a state within a state and now you're going to be replaced by the Lebanese Army and an international force?" he asked.

( as always, dubya's gift for non-communication and irrefutable logic combined with in-depth grasp of complexities are crystal clear )

Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah said earlier today in a taped television address that his guerrillas had achieved a "strategic, historic victory" against Israel, a statement that prompted celebratory gunfire and fireworks across Beirut.

The president and Nasrallah's comments came one day after the Israeli cabinet voted to accept a U.N. declared cease-fire in the 34-day-old conflict. The Lebanese government and Hezbollah agreed to the cease-fire Saturday.

The U.N. resolution calling for the cease-fire also mandates 15,000 foreign troops and 15,000 Lebanese soldiers be deployed the area that has been dominated by fighters from Hezbollah, a radical Shiite movement. "There's going to be a new power in the south of Lebanon," Bush said. He said part of the force's mandate would be to seal off the Syrian border.

( oh really? Sorta like the US military is sealing off Iraq's Syrian and Iranian borders? )

"People in the region need to take a step back and realize Hezbollah's actions created a very strong reaction that unfortunately caused some innocent people to lose their life," Bush said. "It'll take time for people to see the truth." Bush made his comments after meeting with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld and other national security officials at the Pentagon and the State Department today.

The Lebanese government has tallied nearly 800 people killed since the war began July 12 with a Hezbollah raid into northern Israel. The majority of victims have been civilians killed in Israeli bombings. Israel

Israel has reported the deaths of 114 soldiers and 41 civilians.

Bush said the responsibility of the "suffering of the Lebanese people also lies with Hezbollah's state sponsors -- Iran and Syria."

( so, dubya, are you going to walk the walk, or just talk the talk? )
He said Iran had to "stop its support for terror."

( and if they don't? Will you lose interest like you did in Osama and Afghanistan? Cut more taxes for the super rich and corps? )
Tehran provides Hezbollah with "financial support, weapons and training," he said, and Syria "permits Hezbollah's leaders to operate out of Damascus and gives political support to Hezbollah's cause."

He rhetorically asked how much worse the situation could have been if Iran had nuclear weapons. The Bush administration is convinced Tehran is trying to develop a nuclear bomb.

Prospects for the cease-fire holding appeared tenuous. Nasrallah has said his militia will keep fighting Israeli troops as long as they remain in southern Lebanon, and Israeli officials have insisted they would not withdraw their soldiers until the international force and the Lebanese Army take control of the border area. That process could take weeks.

( so the war goes on, and more of the Lebanese civilialns already flooding back to their destroyed homes will killed )
Bush said the United States "certainly hopes the cease-fire holds."

( duh, hope ALWAYS works, sorta like faith in Genesis as hard science)

He called it the first step in ensuring that Lebanese democracy is strengthened. "There can't be a strong democracy when there's a state within a state, and that's Hezbollah," Bush said.

( dubya's always got the simplistic big picture, but never has a clue about the details )

© 2006 The Washington Post Company

JoeChalupa
08-14-2006, 06:22 PM
Mission Accomplished?

whottt
08-14-2006, 07:16 PM
Anytime War is stopped and people stop dying, if only temporarily, cannot be a bad thing, IMO.

But I know what you mean.



I don't think you do...

If someone is trying to kill you and every time you gain the upperhand you stop and let them regroup...it's not a good thing...at lease for you it isn't....it's sowing the seeds of your own extinction.

Aggie Hoopsfan
08-14-2006, 07:38 PM
Of course Hezbollah is already back to firing rockets at Israel again. Tell me they can't be this stupid...

ShackO
08-15-2006, 02:12 AM
Lebanon truce holds (http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&u=/nm/20060815/ts_nm/mideast_dc_198) :clap

Nbadan
08-15-2006, 02:23 AM
BTW, I agree the cease fire was a bad idea...the only way these guys will accept peace is if they are dead...Israel should have just kept going until there were no spin doctors left.

Kept going where? Syria? It took Israel, with its superior airpower and firepower, a month just to go 18 miles into Lebanon against a militia, that's not even a jont across SA for all you distance-disadvantaged out there. We can sit here an argue about who the winners and losers of this battle were, but hardly anyone can argue that as long as a insurgent force like Hizbollah lives to fight another day, and they have gained sympathy from the locals, they have scored a symbolic victory.

whottt
08-15-2006, 03:04 AM
Kept going where? Syria? It took Israel, with its superior airpower and firepower, a month just to go 18 miles into Lebanon against a militia, that's not even a jont across SA for all you distance-disadvantaged out there. We can sit here an argue about who the winners and losers of this battle were, but hardly anyone can argue that as long as a insurgent force like Hizbollah lives to fight another day, and they have gained sympathy from the locals, they have scored a symbolic victory.



Only because of the retards that are happy that Hezbollah got the living shit bombed out of Lebanon and think they accomplished something other than sending Lebanon back to the stone age.

That's all they did...they didn't defend the country from Israel...they were responsible for getting it bombed.

All they do is hide...

You can talk about symbolic victories all you want...but Lebanon got turned into a shithole....again.

Nbadan
08-15-2006, 03:14 AM
Only because of the retards that are happy that Hezbollah got the living shit bombed out of Lebanon and think they accomplished something other than sending Lebanon back to the stone age.

That's all they did...they didn't defend the country from Israel...they were responsible for getting it bombed.

All they do is hide...

You can talk about symbolic victories all you want...but Lebanon got turned into a shithole....again.

No, what they did is turn a Lebanese population that was marginally supportive of them, into a population that is highly supportive of them. Americans just don't get the power of ideology in war. It's why we lost Vietnam and why Iraq is today spinning out of control. The Lebanese see Israeli bombs destroying their homes and businesses, killing their families and friends, they don't care that the M$M says Hizbollah hides among civilians for protection.

whottt
08-15-2006, 03:22 AM
The Lebanese see Israeli bombs destroying their homes and businesses, killing their families and friends, they don't care that the M$M says Hizbollah hides among civilians for protection.

Right...which is why their country is a toilet....and will continue to be one.

Nbadan
08-15-2006, 03:30 AM
Right...which is why their country is a toilet....and will continue to be one.

As both Scott and I have pointed out before, despite the presence of Hizbollah, Lebanon was economically thriving and becoming a secular, moderate ME nation before Israel's latest incursion. If you want a toilet, you need look no further than Afghanistan.

JoeChalupa
08-15-2006, 04:32 AM
I don't think you do...

If someone is trying to kill you and every time you gain the upperhand you stop and let them regroup...it's not a good thing...at lease for you it isn't....it's sowing the seeds of your own extinction.

The seeds of our extinction were sowed years ago.

If someone punches you in the face it does not give you the right to kill them.

I better buy you a drink at the next GTG.

boutons_
08-15-2006, 05:01 AM
"If someone punches you in the face it does not give you the right to kill them."

In many states now, you can kill them for that a lot less (such as for defending your property (not your person)) and not be charged.

JoeChalupa
08-15-2006, 05:02 AM
Don't get me wrong. I know the cease-fire will not succeed but it is worth a shot, no pun intended.

Crookshanks
08-15-2006, 09:12 AM
If someone punches you in the face...

Did you even read the articles? What don't you understand? They don't want to punch Israel in the face - they want to wipe them off the face of the earth!!

The Arabs have been attacking Israel since they became a nation in 1948. Israel has tried appeasement and tried giving up land - nothing has worked. How long must they "turn the other cheek"? When it becomes abundantly clear that the people attacking you want nothing less than your total annihilation, then the only recourse is to kill them before they kill you!

JoeChalupa
08-15-2006, 12:48 PM
Did you even read the articles? What don't you understand? They don't want to punch Israel in the face - they want to wipe them off the face of the earth!!

The Arabs have been attacking Israel since they became a nation in 1948. Israel has tried appeasement and tried giving up land - nothing has worked. How long must they "turn the other cheek"? When it becomes abundantly clear that the people attacking you want nothing less than your total annihilation, then the only recourse is to kill them before they kill you!

Of course I read the articles. What part don't you understand? Pre-emptive strikes are now justified by any country. Iran can easily say that the U.S. wants to destroy their ability to work on their so called "nuclear energy" program and thus is an immediate threat to their long term security. All they have to say is "we have evidence of that threat" and launch away.

And don't get me wrong, if you step on my yard you're a dead man.

whottt
08-15-2006, 02:02 PM
As both Scott and I have pointed out before, despite the presence of Hizbollah, Lebanon was economically thriving and becoming a secular, moderate ME nation before Israel's latest incursion. If you want a toilet, you need look no further than Afghanistan.


Lebanon was just crawling out of being a shithole....

It's back to being one again.

whottt
08-15-2006, 02:04 PM
Of course I read the articles. What part don't you understand? Pre-emptive strikes are now justified by any country. Iran can easily say that the U.S. wants to destroy their ability to work on their so called "nuclear energy" program and thus is an immediate threat to their long term security. All they have to say is "we have evidence of that threat" and launch away.

And don't get me wrong, if you step on my yard you're a dead man.


I don't know what points you are making but this wasn't a pre-emptive strike..

Hezbollah crossed the border and killed 6 Israeli Soldiers and kidnapped 2 others...

Since the Lebanon Government includes representatives from Hezbollah, and refused to disarm them...

That was an act of war...and Israel responded.

Nbadan
08-15-2006, 02:15 PM
Since the Lebanon Government includes representatives from Hezbollah, and refused to disarm them.

:wtf

If Lebanon is sending 15,000 troops into the occupied territory, who won again?

Nbadan
08-15-2006, 02:40 PM
Olmert admits 'short-comings'


Ehud Olmert, the Israeli Prime Minister, was obliged to admit "shortcomings" in the 34-day-old conflict in Lebanon yesterday as he launched what may prove a protracted fight for his own political survival.

Mr Olmert's admission in a stormy Knesset session came in the face of devastating poll figures showing a majority of the Israeli public believes none or only a very small part of the goals of the war had been achieved.

Adding insult to injury, the leader of Hizbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, crowed on television that his guerrillas had achieved a "strategic historic victory" over Israel.

The Prime Minister, who was repeatedly heckled by opposition MPs during his address, insisted the international commitments in Friday night's UN resolution would "change fundamentally" the balance of forces on the country's northern border.

But, facing his first major political crisis since winning the election five months ago, he acknowledged "the overall responsibility for this operation lies with me, the Prime Minister. I am not asking to share this with anyone." A number of Knesset members including the Israeli Arab Ahmed Tibi, a furious opponent of the war, were ejected from the chamber.

Independent (http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article1219280.ece)

jochhejaam
08-19-2006, 04:50 PM
Another solid column from Jack Kelly:

Learning from defeat

THE first step in making lemonade is to recognize when you are holding a lemon. Israel lost its war with Hezbollah. No amount of happy talk from the Israeli government, President Bush, or Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice can change that.

Though always unpleasant, defeats can be useful. They identify shortcomings which must be corrected if ultimate victory is to be won.

Israeli intelligence badly underestimated Hezbollah's fighting qualities, armament, and the extent of its fortifications. Many Israeli reserves reported for duty out of shape, with inadequate equipment. Retired Army Lt. Col. Ralph Peters, embedded for a time with an IDF reserve unit, witnessed some appalling breaches of basic security.

By far the greatest Israeli failure was in its political leadership. The IDF had a plan which probably would have brought victory within 10-14 days. But Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the Jimmy Carter of Israel, refused to implement it. He chose instead to combine rhetorical bluster with battlefield timidity. This drew out the war with inconclusive result, maximizing Israeli military and civilian casualties and damage to Lebanon, while turning world opinion - initially less hostile to Israel than at any time since the 1967 war - against the Jewish state. It also besmirched - with ominous implications - Israel's reputation for military invincibility.

But even though it had serious deficiencies, and was forced by Mr. Olmert to fight with an arm and a leg tied behind its back, the IDF won every engagement with Hezbollah. This was no mean accomplishment, when one considers that Hezbollah is the best trained, equipped, and motivated Arab force Israel has ever fought.

Hezbollah won by surviving. The significance of its strategic victory should not be understated. Hezbollah's popularity has soared throughout the Arab world. Its influence in Lebanon is greater than ever. Secretary Rice said that as a result of the war, Hezbollah will no longer be "a state within a state" in Lebanon. If so, this is more likely because Hezbollah will become the state rather than because its influence will diminish.

But neither should the significance of the Hezbollah victory be overstated. Many of the pundits who describe Israel's defeat as a "catastrophe" do so on the basis of what might have been. Israel could have delivered a savage blow to Hezbollah that would have crippled it militarily; loosened its grip on Lebanon, and embarrassed its sponsors in Iran and Syria. But Mr. Olmert blew it.

Pundits also tend to exaggerate the significance of Hezbollah's psychological and propaganda victories. The fact is Israel is now in a stronger position, tactically, than it was when hostilities began. Hezbollah has been forced from most of its fortifications along the border. Most of its rocket arsenal has been expended or destroyed. Many of its best fighters are dead. And Israel now has an insight into Hezbollah tactics it lacked before.

Israel's tactical gains will erode. Neither the Lebanese army nor the "robust" international force will disarm Hezbollah, or prevent it from reoccupying its former positions once Israeli troops leave Lebanon. Iran and Syria will resupply the terror group. But resupply cannot happen overnight or without cost, financial and political.

Thanks to generous subsidies from Iran, Hezbollah will curry favor with Lebanese civilians by rebuilding what was destroyed by the war. But this will require a massive amount of money just to restore the status quo, and the subsidies are unlikely to be popular with the Iranian people, who will not want so much money drained from their troubled economy for the benefit of foreigners.

It will now be many months before Hezbollah can again present a serious threat to Israel. This may explain Iran's apparent change of heart about nuclear negotiations.

And in these ensuing months, Israel has time to get its military and political houses in order.

Jack Kelly is a member of The Blade’s national bureau.

http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060819/COLUMNIST14/608190393/-1/COLUMNIST

velik_m
08-20-2006, 01:22 AM
so many dead people for a few months of "peace"?

boutons_
08-20-2006, 03:02 AM
dickhead's 1% doctrine makes sense for the USA, but it makes no sense for any other country to have the same doctrine?