Ernesto

[MannyIsGod]

Say hello to Ernesto. This one's going to turn out to be a big bitch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

000
Wont41 Knhc 241920
Dsaat
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement...corrected
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
315 Pm Edt Thu Aug 24 2006

Corrected For Date In Header

Reports From An Air Force Reconnaissance Plane Indicate That The
Tropical Wave Moving Westward Through The Windward Islands Has
Developed A Closed Wind Circulation...and Advisories On Either A
Tropical Depression Or Tropical Storm Will Be Initiated At 5 Pm
Ast. Maximum Winds At This Time Appear To Be Just Below Tropical
Storm Strength...but It Is Possible That Stronger Winds May Be
Observed Prior To Advisory Time.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[Solid D]

Thanks for the heads-up. I hadn't heard about it, Manny.

Speaking of Ernesto, anyone ever eat at Ernesto's in SA? Good food.

[midgetonadonkey]

I have an Uncle Ernesto. We call him Neto.

[MannyIsGod]

Early model runs all point to the Gulf. The Gulf is hot as hell right now, too.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL972006mlts.gif

[2centsworth]

I'll take anything that will water my grass.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

Motherfucker better steer clear of me. I really don't want my first memories of living in my new place to be of it being blown off the face of the earth.

[AlamoSpursFan]

I thought this was a car sales thread.

:lol

[jcrod]

Thanks for the heads-up. I hadn't heard about it, Manny.

Speaking of Ernesto, anyone ever eat at Ernesto's in SA? Good food.


For some reason this is what I thought of when I saw the title. It is good food, haven't been there in a while.

[tlongII]

We have an Ernesto's here as well. Good Italian food.

[Ginofan]

fuckin' mexicans

[Das Texan]

this thing just kinda blew up in the last half a day or so no?

[ashbeeigh]

this thing just kinda blew up in the last half a day or so no?

Yeah, if I'm not mistaken they were saying it wasn't anything too big last night. What a buncha liars.

[1369]

00
Wtnt45 Knhc 242052
Tcdat5
Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052006
500 Pm Edt Thu Aug 24 2006

An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Worked Long And Hard This
Afternoon To Close Off The Tropical Wave Moving Through The
Windward Islands...and Found Enough Northwesterly Winds Late This
Afternoon To Consider The System A Tropical Cyclone. The Aircraft
Just Passed Through The Center And Reported Peak Flight-level Winds
Of 39 Kt...which Corresponds To About 30 Kt At The Surface.
Although Barbados Reported Sustained Winds Of 33 Kt Earlier This
Afternoon...the Direction Of Those Winds Suggested A Convective
Outflow Or Downburst Not Representative Of The Cyclone Circulation.
Aircraft Observations In The Bands Well To The East Of The Center
Indicate Winds There Are Also Below Tropical Storm Strength. With
The Center Already In The Caribbean And Now Moving Away From The
Windward Islands...no Warnings Are Being Issued. However...
Interests There Should Exercise Caution Until Winds And Seas
Subside.

The Initial Motion Is 280/19. A Low To Mid-level Ridge Of High
Pressure In The Southwestern Atlantic Is Currently Providing A
Westward Steering Flow...and This Ridge Should Remain Roughly In
Place Over The Next Few Days. The Other Key Player Is An
Upper-level Trough In The Western Caribbean. As The Cyclone Moves
Into The Central Caribbean...this Trough Will Be Providing Both
Westerly Shear And And A Northward Steering Component. The Gfdl
Responds To This By Gradually Lifting The Track Around The Upper
Low And Toward The Greater Antilles. The Global Models Are For The
Most Part Farther South And Keep The System Weaker In Response To
The Shear. I Am Reminded That The Global Models Correctly Forecast
The Dissipation Of Chris A While Back...and The Gfdl Doesn't Always
Handle Shear Well. The Official Forecast Leans Toward The Southern
Option.

Water Vapor Imagery Shows Both A Dry Environment As Well As Some
Westerly Shear Ahead Of The Cyclone In The Caribbean.
However...the Gfs Retrogrades The Upper Low And If This Occurs
Would Result In A More Favorable Environment For Strengthening.
The Ships Model...which Is Based On The Gfs Fields...responds To
This And Takes The Cyclone Up To Hurricane Strength In 60 Hours.
The Gfdl Intensities Are Lower...but This Results From A Gfdl Track
Which Is Over Land. The Official Forecast Tempers The Ships
Guidance With The Minimal Development Shown By The Global Models.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 24/2100z 12.9n 62.4w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 25/0600z 13.2n 65.5w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 25/1800z 13.8n 68.0w 40 Kt
36hr Vt 26/0600z 14.6n 70.2w 45 Kt
48hr Vt 26/1800z 15.5n 72.5w 50 Kt
72hr Vt 27/1800z 17.0n 76.5w 55 Kt
96hr Vt 28/1800z 18.5n 80.5w 60 Kt
120hr Vt 29/1800z 20.5n 85.0w 60 Kt

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[spurs=bling]

if it does become a hurricane we should send Johnny Blaze to the location to take some video and he will have a center piece story too.

[MannyIsGod]

Fuck that, if it becomes a hurricane and comes to Texas, *I* am going to chase it. Anyone wanting to lend me their camera is free.

[Guru of Nothing]

Fuck that, if it becomes a hurricane and comes to Texas, *I* am going to chase it. Anyone wanting to lend me their camera is free.

You are welcome to set up a base camp in Jackson at my place, if things move this way.

You just better bring me some music!

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

[Guru of Nothing]

:lol

Seriously, you are welcome here.

This is my 6th summer here, and it is by far the hottest one (nearly San Antonio hot) and I assume it's even hotter moving South. My gut reaction is that this storm will be epic.

[NorCal510]

weatherman manny

[ashbeeigh]

weatherman manny

you're a bit late there norcal.

[spurschick]

C'mon you bastard - bring it!*








* Without killing anyone or destroying anyone's home.

[1369]

C'mon you bastard - bring it!*








* Without killing anyone or destroying anyone's home.

Just no rain for SA or else we lose the really cool limited edition wet-T bravatar.

[Manu20]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

[midgetonadonkey]

Can we get a vbookie on where it's gonna hit? My money is on New Orleans.

[spurschick]

Can we get a vbookie on where it's gonna hit? My money is on New Orleans.

Don't say such things.

[DaSpurs#1]

Can we get a vbookie on where it's gonna hit? My money is on New Orleans.my money's on anywhere that gives SA no rain :depressed :spin :spin :spin

[Buddy Holly]

Damn, how freaky would it be if it became a cat 5 in 5-6 days and was threatening New Orleans.

[spurs=bling]

Damn, how freaky would it be if it became a cat 5 in 5-6 days and was threatening New Orleans.
that would really suck.

[MannyIsGod]

Not freaky at all really. New Orleans will be hit with a strong hurricane again. It isn't an if, it is a when.

[Buddy Holly]

Not freaky at all really. New Orleans will be hit with a strong hurricane again. It isn't an if, it is a when.

No, I understand that, I just mean it happening on the one year mark of Katrina.

[MannyIsGod]

True, I didn't even realize it but yeah i guess it has been one year.

[Das Texan]

Fuck that, if it becomes a hurricane and comes to Texas, *I* am going to chase it. Anyone wanting to lend me their camera is free.



"I" will be competing wtih you for the better story.

:madrun

[1369]

000
Wtnt45 Knhc 250835
Tcdat5
Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052006
500 Am Edt Fri Aug 25 2006

Despite Westerly Shear... The Tropical Depression Appears To Be
Approaching Tropical Storm Strength. Deep Convection Has
Intensified Near The Center With Improving Banding Features In The
Eastern Semicircle. However It Appears The Center Is On The
Western Edge Of The Thunderstorms... As Suggested By A Notch In The
Deep Convection Pattern On Night-vis Satellite Images. Satellite
Classifications Range From 35-45 Kt But Are A Little Closer To The
Center Of The Deep Convection. With The Uncertainity In Initial
Position.. 30 Kt Will Be Kept Until Visible Images Allow Us To Get
A Better Handle On Where The System Is Located.

The Track Forecast Seems Like The Easier Part Of The Forecast This
Morning. The Depression Is Speeding Westward At About The Same
Rate... 280/17. Middle-level Ridging Should Remain Strong Over
The Western Atlantic Ocean... Keeping The System Moving In A
General West To West-northwestward Heading For The Next Couple Of
Days. The Nogaps/ukmet Show Stronger Ridging And A Weaker
Tropical Cyclone... Leading To A Track Closer To Yucatan In About 5
Days. The Gfs And Gfdl Temporarily Weaken The Ridge In A Few
Days... Which Allow A Stronger System To Move To The Northwest
Closer To Cuba. I'm Inclined To Stick Closer To The First Option
... Leading To A Small Westward Shift Of The Track Forecast.

The Intensity Forecast Is Tricky To Say The Least. First Of All...
The System Has To Survive The Strong Westerly Shear It Will Be
Experiencing For The Next Day Or Two. This Is By No Means Certain
And It Wouldn't Be A Huge Surprise For The Depression To Dissipate
In The "graveyard" Of The Eastern Caribbean Sea... Like Some Of The
Global Models Are Forecasting. However...if The Tropical Cyclone
Survives...and This Is A Big If...global Models Remove The Shear By
Fracturing The Mid-oceanic Trough In The Western Caribbean. This
Pattern Change Sends An Upper-level Low Into The Gulf Of Mexico In
3 Days While Building Upper Ridging Near The Depression. This Could
Allow The System To Strengthen Especially As It Enters The Western
Caribbean. On The Other Hand... Global Models Have Notoriously
Weakened Upper-level Cyclones Too Quickly In The Past And The
Mid-oceanic Trough Has Been Quite Persistent And Stronger-than-
Normal In That Area This Season. After Saying All This... The
Intensity Forecast Will Be Quite Similar To Previous. However If
The Low Shear Environment The Global Models Are Forecasting
Materializes In The Western Caribbean... Td Five Could Be A Lot
Stronger Than Shown Below In The Later Periods.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 25/0900z 13.4n 65.7w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 25/1800z 13.9n 67.8w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 26/0600z 14.8n 70.4w 40 Kt
36hr Vt 26/1800z 15.6n 72.8w 45 Kt
48hr Vt 27/0600z 16.5n 75.0w 55 Kt
72hr Vt 28/0600z 18.5n 79.5w 65 Kt
96hr Vt 29/0600z 21.0n 84.0w 65 Kt
120hr Vt 30/0600z 23.5n 87.5w 65 Kt

$$
Forecaster Blake/avila

[1369]

000
Wtnt45 Knhc 251457
Tcdat5
Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052006
1100 Am Edt Fri Aug 25 2006

The Center Of Tropical Depression Five Is Very Hard To Locate This
Morning. Microwave Satellite Imagery Suggests That The Center Is
Located West Of The Large Convective Mass That Has Persisted Through
The Night...and Close To The Previous Forecast Tracks. However...a
12z Observation From Ship 6zxg Suggest The Center Is Farther To The
South And East...which Would Suggest A More Westward Motion At A
Slower Forward Speed. Animation Of Visible Imagery Has Not Yet
Helped Resolve This...as It Is Difficult To See Westerly Low-level
Winds. The Initial Position Will Be Closer To That Of The
Microwave Data. Satellite Intensity Estimates Remain 35-45 Kt...
But Due To The Uncertainty In The Center Position The Cyclone Will
Remain A Depression On This Package.

The Initial Motion Is A Somewhat Uncertain 280/13...somewhat Slower
Than Earlier. There Is Little Change In The Synoptic Reasoning Or
The Track Forecast For The First 72-96 Hr. The Depression Is South
Of A Low/mid-level Ridging Over The Western Atlantic...which Should
Keep The System Moving Generally West-northwestward. Model
Guidance Supports This Scenario With A Tight Clustering Of Tracks
Through The Northwestern Caribbean...with The Exception Of The Gfdl
Which Continues To Call For A Track Over Cuba. Some Spread Appears
In The Guidance After 96 Hr...with The Gfs And Nogaps Building The
Ridge Across The Gulf Of Mexico Enough To Turn The Cyclone
Westward...while The Ecmwf And Canadian Models Having Enough Of A
Weakness For The Cyclone To Turn Northward. The New Forecast Track
Is An Update Of The Previous Package For The First 96 Hr...then
Slows The System Down In Response To The Guidance Spread.

The Intensity Forecast Is Perhaps Becoming Less Tricky. The
Large-scale Models Are Coming Into Better Agreement That The
Upper-level Trough Over The Western Caribbean Will Move Westward
And Allow An Upper-level Ridge To Develop Over The Western
Caribbean. Should This Happen...as Some Of The Models Have Been
Known To Move Upper-level Lows Too Quickly Westward...it Would
Reduce The Current 15-20 Kt Shear And Produce A More Favorable
Environment. The Ships Model Calls For The Depression To Become A
Hurricane In About 60 Hr And Reach 87 Kt By 120 Hr. Given The
Uncertainties In The Initial Position And Intensity...the New
Intensity Forecast Is The Same As The Old Forecast...calling For
The Cyclone To Become A Hurricane In About 72 Hr. However...if The
Shear Decreases As Much As Forecast...the Cyclone Could Be
Significantly Stronger Than Currently Forecast After 72 Hr.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is Scheduled To
Investigate The Depression This Afternoon. If The Aircraft Finds
The Center In A Different Location...significant Changes In The
Forecast Track Could Be Necessary On The Next Advisory.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 25/1500z 13.5n 66.4w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 26/0000z 14.2n 68.5w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 26/1200z 15.0n 71.1w 40 Kt
36hr Vt 27/0000z 15.9n 73.6w 45 Kt
48hr Vt 27/1200z 16.9n 76.0w 55 Kt
72hr Vt 28/1200z 19.0n 80.5w 65 Kt
96hr Vt 29/1200z 21.5n 84.5w 65 Kt
120hr Vt 30/1200z 23.5n 87.5w 65 Kt

$$
Forecaster Beven

[1369]

More models for your viewing pleasure.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

[1369]

This model is intesesting, if you hit "FWD" in the menu and let the animation run, it shows the system hitting somewhere between Corpus and Houston in like 144 hours. Granted that the model errors that far out are large.

More Models (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2006082412&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation)

[MannyIsGod]

Anywhere on the Gulf Coast right now is a possibility, but to be honest if I was in NO I would not be happy. Not one bit.

[MannyIsGod]

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/913758/td5.jpg

That red circle is the center of the storm, and its moving too fast for the storms to keep up with it. This storm may kill itself off this way. Its on the verge of either blowing up, or dying. Hopefully it dies, because as hot as the Gulf and W. Carribean are, we dont' need storms in that area.

[ShoogarBear]

Okay, weather geeks: do hurricanes ever hit south of the Equator?

[MannyIsGod]

Yes. They are extrmely rare in the south Atlantic although one did hit Brazil a few years back. They do hit Australia though, but they aren't called hurricanes. Same shit with a different name.

[ShoogarBear]

Rarely? Often? Do we just not hear about them because they don't affect us?

[MannyIsGod]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Catarina

[1369]

Kinda cool how it was spinning "backwards" due to the corilois effect.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Kinda cool how it was spinning "backwards" due to the corilois effect.

The Kori Ellis effect?

[ShoogarBear]

:spin

[1369]

It is official.


000
WTNT45 KNHC 252042
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000
FT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40
KT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT
TIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE
NEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR. ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM
MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA.
SOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS
BUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO
WESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE UKMET FORECASTS A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE
NOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION. IT THEN
CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST
NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION LIKELY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE
SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE
FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.
THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.3N 67.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 15.0N 69.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 16.0N 72.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 17.0N 74.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 77.2W 55 KT...OVER JAMAICA
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 82.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 29/1800Z 23.0N 85.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 88.0W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[ShoogarBear]

WTF, will somebody tell the National Weather Service that all caps suck?

[boutons_]

all caps suck, and
suck worse in low-resolution italics with suposedly "cool" low-contrast light grey letters on dark grey b/g :)

[spurs=bling]

WTF, will somebody tell the National Weather Service that all caps suck?
WHY??

[CubanMustGo]

WHY??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_caps

Because the use of all capital letters are supposed to be used for shouting , posting a forum message entirely in caps is a sign that the poster is a newbie or a troll. Since the beginning of America Online, ALL CAPS has commonly been associated with AOL users. More experienced users will sometimes jocularly use all-caps and misspelled phrases to make fun of newbies or use the saying "caps lock is cruise control for cool."

Netiquette prohibits the use of all caps as a form of shouting however this does not hold true as in technical writing when single word caps is common to emphisize a point or to gain the readers attention also common is the use of bold or italicized words in the same context. This form of emphasis is also used in posts, blogs and email.

[ShoogarBear]

:lol

You did notice she posted in all caps?

[spurs=bling]

you know i'm just playing with you shoog. i hope Ernesto brings us some much needed rain.

[MannyIsGod]

Centeral to Eastern Gulf bound. Watch this one closely, it's going to go over the infamous Loop current eddies in the Gulf.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Here comes the finishing blow to NO.

[Kori Ellis]

The Kori Ellis effect?

I started a blog with that name, but I never blogged in it.

[spurschick]

Watch this one closely, it's going to go over the infamous Loop current eddies in the Gulf.

That sounds like the name of a band.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

That sounds like the name of a band.

I really miss that band.

[spurs=bling]

hmmm..........



http://image.weather.com/images/maps/pt_BR/tropical/strm5_strike_720x486.jpg

[ashbeeigh]

hmmm..........



http://image.weather.com/images/maps/pt_BR/tropical/strm5_strike_720x486.jpg

Last time, if I'm not mistaken, this early, Katrina was forcasted to go towards FL. It's still far off, and with the effect we're talking about there's no telling. Weather is strange.

[spurs=bling]

last year on the 25th Katrina hit FL and was making her way into the gulfcoast.

[MannyIsGod]

This storm is going east. It looks more and more like the FL panhandle.

[Das Texan]

guess that means i wont have to worry about ernesto next weekend at the coast.


bummer in a way.

[SpursWoman]

He's officially a cat 1 hurricane.



000
WTNT65 KNHC 270905
TCUAT5
HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
504 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...

RECENT DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. THIS
MAKES ERNESTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Ginofan]

First one of the season and supposedly it's going t be a CAT 2 before it hits Cuba.

[MannyIsGod]

Well, it was a hurricane earlier but it isn't right now. The islands seem to be kicking its ass at the moment, and it has weakend quite a bit. This is good and bad news. Obviously a weaker storm is better, but a weaker storm also won't travel the way the models predicted so the forcast track changes the longer Ernesto stays this weak.

[Guru of Nothing]

Well, it was a hurricane earlier but it isn't right now. The islands seem to be kicking its ass at the moment, and it has weakend quite a bit. This is good and bad news. Obviously a weaker storm is better, but a weaker storm also won't travel the way the models predicted so the forcast track changes the longer Ernesto stays this weak.

Kind of like breaking somebody's fist with your face.

[RashoFan]

My company "deployed" 3 ambulances with medics to Fl. today...I get to pick up a few extra shifts at work now...