Bush could get one of Maine's electoral votes

[Marcus Bryant]

Maine's 2nd congressional district is rather competitive right now, as I understand it. Apparently Bush is running strong among French Catholics there and also there is some issue in regards to bear hunting, if I recall correctly. If Bush beats Kerry in that district then he will win one of Maine's four electoral votes, as Maine gives 2 electoral votes to the statewide winner and then a vote each to the winners of its two congressional districts. I saw a report about it recently on some news program. I will have to look for a pertinent articles.

[Brodels]

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Scramble still on for Maine

By PAUL CARRIER, Portland Press Herald Writer

Copyright © 2004 Blethen Maine Newspapers Inc.
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The campaigns of President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are bringing a string of surrogates to Maine this week as each camp makes one last push to swing the state its way, but there are growing signs that Kerry has an edge here.

Both campaigns say they are working hard to win Maine, but The Associated Press reports that Bush is scaling back advertising here in apparent recognition of Kerry's strength. A Zogby International poll for the Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram released Sunday gave Kerry a strong lead over Bush, 50 percent to 39 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The poll was released as political experts dropped Maine from the list of tossup states. The New York Times reported Sunday that the fight is now down to 11 other states, including New Hampshire, which is the only New England state on the newspaper's battleground list.

Still, surrogates for both candidates will continue pouring into Maine this week. U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Illinois, joined 2nd District congressional hopeful Brian Hamel at a GOP rally in Bangor on Monday. AFL-CIO President John Sweeney visited Brewer on Monday to make the case for Kerry. The same day, Democratic U.S. Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut was in Lewiston and Waterville.

Kerry was in Dover, N.H., on Monday, but neither presidential candidate has announced an 11th-hour swing through Maine.

Kerry has a regional advantage in Maine as a New Englander, and Mainers prefer moderate Republicans over conservatives such as Bush, so Kerry is favored, said Elaine Kamarck, a former Clinton administration official who now teaches at the John F. Kennedy School of Government in Massachusetts.

Maine voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections, and "the natural (political) state for all of the New England states except New Hampshire is moderate to left," so Kerry should take Maine, said Richard Maiman, head of the political science department at the University of Southern Maine.

Still, spokesmen for both campaigns insisted Monday they are gearing up for a final surge in Maine, with the Kerry camp taking nothing for granted and the Bush camp insisting it can win here. Randy Bumps, executive director of the Bush campaign in Maine, declined comment on whether the campaign has sliced its advertising budget here.

"We don't discuss our ad buys," Bumps said. "We are indeed advertising in Maine, as we have for months, and we will continue to do so." Bumps said the Bush campaign has "a very aggressive movement that's under way that won't stop until Nov. 2," including an intensive get-out-the-vote effort that contacted tens of thousands of Mainers by phone or in person last weekend.

"We're not going to assume anything," said Jesse Derris of the Kerry campaign. "We're still in an incredibly tight race in at least part of this state," he said. The newspaper's poll gave Kerry an 18-point lead in the 1st Congressional District but only a 4-point lead in the 2nd District, within the poll's margin of error.

Derris said the Kerry campaign remains "focused on talking to the voters across Maine" and assuring that Kerry supporters head to the polls Nov. 2. He said the Kerry camp will have over 3,000 volunteers in the field on Election Day, visiting voters, calling them and providing rides to the polls.

Former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley, a New Jersey Democrat, is scheduled to speak in Lewiston today as both camps continue to focus much of their attention on the 2nd District. Democratic U.S. Sen. Zell Miller of Georgia, who endorsed Bush at the Republican National Convention last summer, will be in Auburn today.

Wednesday, former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell will take part in a Kerry rally in Portland, and Del Sandusky, a Swift Boat crewmate of Kerry's, will participate in roundtable discussions with other veterans in Presque Isle and Bangor.

Rudy Giuliani, the former Republican mayor of New York City, will speak Thursday at what the Bush campaign describes as a town hall meeting in Bangor.

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/news/state/041026campaign.shtml

Here you go. Kerry is leading in the second district, but his lead is within the poll's margin of error. It could go either way.

The second district is huge and includes Maine's second-largest city as well as most of the rural regions of the state.

Bush could certainly pick up a vote there. We'll have to wait and see.

[Marcus Bryant]

Thanks. The Bush campaign is sending in Giuliani, something of note.