timvp
10-27-2004, 12:40 AM
Mike Monroe: GMs select Spurs to win title
Plan the parade.
The NBA's general managers, in a poll conducted by the NBA's official Web site, NBA.com, say the Spurs are going to win the 2005 NBA championship.
Before you get too excited, the GMs also predicted before the 2004-05 season that the Spurs would win the 2004 NBA title, and not a one of them picked the Detroit Pistons.
Come to think of it, perhaps ESPN's Greg Anthony ought to be some team's GM, because he was the only preseason prognosticator anywhere to correctly pick the Pistons to win the title before the 2003-04 season began, and he even predicted they would meet the Lakers in NBA Finals 2004, no less.
A lot of us in the media have tried in the past to conduct preseason polls of all the league's GMs, the basketball decision-makers presumed to know more about the game and its players than anyone else. Rarely was it possible to get enough of the GMs to cooperate to have a statistically meaningful result.
But with NBA.com asking the GMs to participate, and with subtle encouragement from David Stern that they cooperate, the league's official Web site has had considerably better results.
Fortunately, NBA.com doesn't mind sharing the results, some of which are pretty fascinating.
For example, for the second year in a row the GMs named Spurs power forward Tim Duncan as the one player they would sign if they were starting a franchise today. Last year, Shaquille O'Neal was second in that voting. This year it was Kevin Garnett. Those three were the only players receiving any votes at all the last two years, which won't make Kobe Bryant very happy.
The GMs also predict that O'Neal will be this season's Most Valuable Player. They picked him last season, too, but how could they have anticipated the soap opera the Lakers season would become?
Well, Mitch Kupchak probably had a pretty good idea, but he wasn't letting on last October.
This time, with O'Neal mega-motivated in a new locale and with plenty to prove for a team that figures to make a big jump in the standings, they have a much better shot at getting it right.
Just as he was last year, Duncan is second choice among the GMs to be 2004-05 MVP.
Only two Western Conference teams, the Spurs and Timberwolves, got votes from the GMs when they were asked which team would win the Western Conference, which must mean they don't believe Chris Webber is going to have an injury-free season in Sacramento or that the Lakers really are better off being Bryant's team, rather than O'Neal's.
They think the Pistons will repeat as Eastern champs, but the Pacers and Heat got votes in that conference, too.
For the third-straight year, the GMs picked the same five players as the best at their positions: Jason Kidd at the point, Kobe Bryant at big guard, O'Neal at center, Duncan at power forward and Tracy McGrady at small forward.
Bryant was a unanimous pick for the second year in a row, and Duncan got 67 percent of the votes at power forward to Garnett's 33 percent. To be fair to the reigning MVP, Garnett also got 19 percent of the votes at small forward.
Tony Parker got one vote as best point guard, but since Spurs GM R.C. Buford is still negotiating with Marc Fleisher, Parker's agent, about a contract extension, feel free to presume he was not the one who cast that vote.
No GM predicted that the Spurs' Beno Udrih would be Rookie of the Year, but he got some support (12 percent of the vote) as the international rookie most ready to contribute this season.
Spurs small forward Bruce Bowen won't like the fact he slipped from No. 1 to No. 2 as best perimeter defender, falling behind Indiana's Ron Artest.
For the second year in a row the GMs tabbed Larry Brown as best coach. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich was fourth this season, down a couple spots from last year. But he was No. 2, right behind Brown when the GMs were asked which coach is best at managing the final two minutes of a game.
Utah's Jerry Sloan was No. 1 in the category of best motivator. We think that means more players are afraid Sloan could whip them in a fight than any other coach — and they are right.
Preseason predictions don't mean much, of course, not even when made by the game's smartest thinkers. The Pistons proved that last season.
The Spurs have to hope the GMs all got smarter this summer.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/basketball/nba/spurs/stories/MYSA102704.C.COLmikemonroe.2aed5cc6.html
Plan the parade.
The NBA's general managers, in a poll conducted by the NBA's official Web site, NBA.com, say the Spurs are going to win the 2005 NBA championship.
Before you get too excited, the GMs also predicted before the 2004-05 season that the Spurs would win the 2004 NBA title, and not a one of them picked the Detroit Pistons.
Come to think of it, perhaps ESPN's Greg Anthony ought to be some team's GM, because he was the only preseason prognosticator anywhere to correctly pick the Pistons to win the title before the 2003-04 season began, and he even predicted they would meet the Lakers in NBA Finals 2004, no less.
A lot of us in the media have tried in the past to conduct preseason polls of all the league's GMs, the basketball decision-makers presumed to know more about the game and its players than anyone else. Rarely was it possible to get enough of the GMs to cooperate to have a statistically meaningful result.
But with NBA.com asking the GMs to participate, and with subtle encouragement from David Stern that they cooperate, the league's official Web site has had considerably better results.
Fortunately, NBA.com doesn't mind sharing the results, some of which are pretty fascinating.
For example, for the second year in a row the GMs named Spurs power forward Tim Duncan as the one player they would sign if they were starting a franchise today. Last year, Shaquille O'Neal was second in that voting. This year it was Kevin Garnett. Those three were the only players receiving any votes at all the last two years, which won't make Kobe Bryant very happy.
The GMs also predict that O'Neal will be this season's Most Valuable Player. They picked him last season, too, but how could they have anticipated the soap opera the Lakers season would become?
Well, Mitch Kupchak probably had a pretty good idea, but he wasn't letting on last October.
This time, with O'Neal mega-motivated in a new locale and with plenty to prove for a team that figures to make a big jump in the standings, they have a much better shot at getting it right.
Just as he was last year, Duncan is second choice among the GMs to be 2004-05 MVP.
Only two Western Conference teams, the Spurs and Timberwolves, got votes from the GMs when they were asked which team would win the Western Conference, which must mean they don't believe Chris Webber is going to have an injury-free season in Sacramento or that the Lakers really are better off being Bryant's team, rather than O'Neal's.
They think the Pistons will repeat as Eastern champs, but the Pacers and Heat got votes in that conference, too.
For the third-straight year, the GMs picked the same five players as the best at their positions: Jason Kidd at the point, Kobe Bryant at big guard, O'Neal at center, Duncan at power forward and Tracy McGrady at small forward.
Bryant was a unanimous pick for the second year in a row, and Duncan got 67 percent of the votes at power forward to Garnett's 33 percent. To be fair to the reigning MVP, Garnett also got 19 percent of the votes at small forward.
Tony Parker got one vote as best point guard, but since Spurs GM R.C. Buford is still negotiating with Marc Fleisher, Parker's agent, about a contract extension, feel free to presume he was not the one who cast that vote.
No GM predicted that the Spurs' Beno Udrih would be Rookie of the Year, but he got some support (12 percent of the vote) as the international rookie most ready to contribute this season.
Spurs small forward Bruce Bowen won't like the fact he slipped from No. 1 to No. 2 as best perimeter defender, falling behind Indiana's Ron Artest.
For the second year in a row the GMs tabbed Larry Brown as best coach. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich was fourth this season, down a couple spots from last year. But he was No. 2, right behind Brown when the GMs were asked which coach is best at managing the final two minutes of a game.
Utah's Jerry Sloan was No. 1 in the category of best motivator. We think that means more players are afraid Sloan could whip them in a fight than any other coach — and they are right.
Preseason predictions don't mean much, of course, not even when made by the game's smartest thinkers. The Pistons proved that last season.
The Spurs have to hope the GMs all got smarter this summer.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/basketball/nba/spurs/stories/MYSA102704.C.COLmikemonroe.2aed5cc6.html