George Gervin's Afro
09-18-2006, 11:46 AM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14856130/
It could be the year of NBA longshots
LeBron’s Cavs figure to challenge Wade’s Heat for 2007 title
The Sporting News' Sean Deveney says LeBron James and the Cavs are one of the longshots who could win the 2007 NBA title.
OPINION
By Sean Deveney
Updated: 2:08 p.m. CT Sept 16, 2006
Sean Deveney
Being a law-abiding and moral citizen, I would never condone peeking at the vast array of gambling Web sites and established sports books out there for anything other than recreational purposes. I, for one, favor handshake wagers, not kneecap wagers. From time to time, though, my browser wanders to a real-money website or two, just as my body sometimes wanders (involuntarily) to the sports book at Bellagio.
My browser made the journey this morning, for example. The reason was legit. See, I know what I think of the upcoming NBA season. Thanks to blogs and emails, I know what you folks think about the season, too. But when it comes to money-where-your-mouth-is reality, you can't beat Vegas. Or, in this case, cyber-Vegas. These people stake their livelihoods on getting the odds just right. Seems worth it to see what they think.
Not surprisingly, there are four clear favorites to win the championship. There are four other teams ranked at 12-1 odds or shorter. After that, you're looking at a bunch of 20-1 longshots.
But, couldn't this be the year of the longshot? Obviously, the favorites gained that status for a reason. A closer look, though, reveals holes a-plenty.
1. Miami. (Listed in the 4-1 range)
The Heat caught a bit of postseason magic, thanks to Dwyane Wade. Remember, Miami looked terrible in the opening games of the Finals before Wade simply took over. For a few weeks last spring, he played like Michael Jordan --maybe not with the same talent, but certainly with the same determination and will to win.
But Jordan did that year after year. We don't know yet if Wade can do it, and, with the pummeling he took over the course of last season, it'll be tough for him to stay healthy through another championship run.
He has a supporting cast of veterans who might be less motivated now that they've gotten their Miami rings, so Wade figures to have a stiffer challenge this year.
2. Dallas. (Also listed around 4-1)
The Mavericks sure look like a championship team. They have talent, depth and good coaching. They have a superstar, Dirk Nowitzki, in his prime. They made some alterations, adding veteran reserve point guard Anthony Johnson, plus bit-part vets Devean George and Austin Croshere.
But, last year, coach Avery Johnson continuously referred to his desire for his team to play, "playground basketball." That translates into something like this: "We're not tough enough." That's been the Mavs' weak spot throughout the Nowitzki era, and I don't know that Johnson can coach them into toughness.
3. San Antonio. (Listed pretty consistently at 9-2)
Most of us in the media focused on the Spurs' age as a primary reason for their loss to the Mavericks last postseason. And most of us were wrong. It wasn't age that was the problem for the Spurs; it was versatility.
They lacked players who combined size and quickness, guys who can keep pace with non-traditional big men like Nowitzki or Brad Miller. The Spurs did well to address the issue economically by acquiring lower-tier players like Francisco Elson, Jackie Butler, Eric Williams and Matt Bonner, dumping lead-footed Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed in the process. Problem is, the Spurs will have to make changes to their defensive scheme, which is designed to funnel the ball toward Tim Duncan and (go back in time with me here) David Robinson. Nesterovic and Mohammed were not Robinson, but they were, at least, 7-foot shot-blockers. Elson and Butler are not shot-blocking threats.
Thus, the Spurs are going to have to seriously alter the defensive scheme that has been such an integral part of their success.
4. Phoenix. (Odds are anywhere from 9-2 to 6-1)
Amare Stoudemire. That's pretty much all we need to say about the Suns' chances at a championship. If he is healthy, Phoenix might well be the favorite. But microfracture surgery is a doozy, and there is the possibility that Stoudemire will never quite be the same.
Suppose he isn't, and suppose Boris Diaw and Kurt Thomas deserve to start ahead of him. Will the Suns kowtow to the oft-prickly Stoudemire? And if they do, what will happen to the great chemistry they've established?
5. Detroit. (Listed around 7-1)
In the long run, the Pistons did the right thing in not bringing Ben Wallace back, but it certainly makes things tenuous in the short run. This will have to be a more offensive-minded team, something the Pistons tried last year with great regular-season success and miserable postseason failure.
As much as players respect Wallace, they still back coach Flip Saunders and they still have the talent for a title run. They just look less imposing.
6. Chicago. (All over the place, from 7-1 to 25-1)
Wallace and P.J. Brown figure to be the short-term answer for the young Bulls. They'll defend, they'll rebound, they'll lead in the locker room. The Bulls are a legitimate contender, but the offense is a big question.
Their scoring tends to come from their guards -- Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich -- who are streaky. Small forwards Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni don't post up as much as they should. That means their post scoring is going to have to come from Wallace, who is simply not very good with the ball, and Brown, who has a career scoring average of just 9.4 points per game.
7. Cleveland. (In the 10-1 to 12-1 range)
Until Larry Hughes finds a comfortable role, this is still a one-man team. It helps that the man in question is LeBron James, of course, but the Cavs have questions in every other area. Their point guards are Eric Snow, Damon Jones, David Wesley and Daniel Gibson.
Ouch.
They're still not quite sure what they have in Drew Gooden, who averaged a career-low 10.7 points last year. They're hoping for good things from rookie Shannon Brown, but they did little else to ease depth and perimeter shooting worries.
8. New Jersey. (Between 12-1 and 15-1)
Bringing in rookie Marcus Williams could pay off right away, but the Nets' primary problem is the frontcourt, which features too much of soon-to-be-40 forward Puff Robinson. They brought in 22-year-old rookie Mile Ilic, but he's not likely to help right away. It looks like the Nets will have Nenad Krstic, Robinson and Jason Collins, which is a pretty serious problem.
Those are the top contenders, but there isn't one I'd put my mortgage on. Or even your mortgage. These teams are good, but you don't get a sense of greatness here, which leaves this thing open for longshots.
Hmm. Clippers at 30-1? Jazz at 75-1? Hornets at 80-1?
I sure hope this is the year of the longshot.
It could be the year of NBA longshots
LeBron’s Cavs figure to challenge Wade’s Heat for 2007 title
The Sporting News' Sean Deveney says LeBron James and the Cavs are one of the longshots who could win the 2007 NBA title.
OPINION
By Sean Deveney
Updated: 2:08 p.m. CT Sept 16, 2006
Sean Deveney
Being a law-abiding and moral citizen, I would never condone peeking at the vast array of gambling Web sites and established sports books out there for anything other than recreational purposes. I, for one, favor handshake wagers, not kneecap wagers. From time to time, though, my browser wanders to a real-money website or two, just as my body sometimes wanders (involuntarily) to the sports book at Bellagio.
My browser made the journey this morning, for example. The reason was legit. See, I know what I think of the upcoming NBA season. Thanks to blogs and emails, I know what you folks think about the season, too. But when it comes to money-where-your-mouth-is reality, you can't beat Vegas. Or, in this case, cyber-Vegas. These people stake their livelihoods on getting the odds just right. Seems worth it to see what they think.
Not surprisingly, there are four clear favorites to win the championship. There are four other teams ranked at 12-1 odds or shorter. After that, you're looking at a bunch of 20-1 longshots.
But, couldn't this be the year of the longshot? Obviously, the favorites gained that status for a reason. A closer look, though, reveals holes a-plenty.
1. Miami. (Listed in the 4-1 range)
The Heat caught a bit of postseason magic, thanks to Dwyane Wade. Remember, Miami looked terrible in the opening games of the Finals before Wade simply took over. For a few weeks last spring, he played like Michael Jordan --maybe not with the same talent, but certainly with the same determination and will to win.
But Jordan did that year after year. We don't know yet if Wade can do it, and, with the pummeling he took over the course of last season, it'll be tough for him to stay healthy through another championship run.
He has a supporting cast of veterans who might be less motivated now that they've gotten their Miami rings, so Wade figures to have a stiffer challenge this year.
2. Dallas. (Also listed around 4-1)
The Mavericks sure look like a championship team. They have talent, depth and good coaching. They have a superstar, Dirk Nowitzki, in his prime. They made some alterations, adding veteran reserve point guard Anthony Johnson, plus bit-part vets Devean George and Austin Croshere.
But, last year, coach Avery Johnson continuously referred to his desire for his team to play, "playground basketball." That translates into something like this: "We're not tough enough." That's been the Mavs' weak spot throughout the Nowitzki era, and I don't know that Johnson can coach them into toughness.
3. San Antonio. (Listed pretty consistently at 9-2)
Most of us in the media focused on the Spurs' age as a primary reason for their loss to the Mavericks last postseason. And most of us were wrong. It wasn't age that was the problem for the Spurs; it was versatility.
They lacked players who combined size and quickness, guys who can keep pace with non-traditional big men like Nowitzki or Brad Miller. The Spurs did well to address the issue economically by acquiring lower-tier players like Francisco Elson, Jackie Butler, Eric Williams and Matt Bonner, dumping lead-footed Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed in the process. Problem is, the Spurs will have to make changes to their defensive scheme, which is designed to funnel the ball toward Tim Duncan and (go back in time with me here) David Robinson. Nesterovic and Mohammed were not Robinson, but they were, at least, 7-foot shot-blockers. Elson and Butler are not shot-blocking threats.
Thus, the Spurs are going to have to seriously alter the defensive scheme that has been such an integral part of their success.
4. Phoenix. (Odds are anywhere from 9-2 to 6-1)
Amare Stoudemire. That's pretty much all we need to say about the Suns' chances at a championship. If he is healthy, Phoenix might well be the favorite. But microfracture surgery is a doozy, and there is the possibility that Stoudemire will never quite be the same.
Suppose he isn't, and suppose Boris Diaw and Kurt Thomas deserve to start ahead of him. Will the Suns kowtow to the oft-prickly Stoudemire? And if they do, what will happen to the great chemistry they've established?
5. Detroit. (Listed around 7-1)
In the long run, the Pistons did the right thing in not bringing Ben Wallace back, but it certainly makes things tenuous in the short run. This will have to be a more offensive-minded team, something the Pistons tried last year with great regular-season success and miserable postseason failure.
As much as players respect Wallace, they still back coach Flip Saunders and they still have the talent for a title run. They just look less imposing.
6. Chicago. (All over the place, from 7-1 to 25-1)
Wallace and P.J. Brown figure to be the short-term answer for the young Bulls. They'll defend, they'll rebound, they'll lead in the locker room. The Bulls are a legitimate contender, but the offense is a big question.
Their scoring tends to come from their guards -- Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich -- who are streaky. Small forwards Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni don't post up as much as they should. That means their post scoring is going to have to come from Wallace, who is simply not very good with the ball, and Brown, who has a career scoring average of just 9.4 points per game.
7. Cleveland. (In the 10-1 to 12-1 range)
Until Larry Hughes finds a comfortable role, this is still a one-man team. It helps that the man in question is LeBron James, of course, but the Cavs have questions in every other area. Their point guards are Eric Snow, Damon Jones, David Wesley and Daniel Gibson.
Ouch.
They're still not quite sure what they have in Drew Gooden, who averaged a career-low 10.7 points last year. They're hoping for good things from rookie Shannon Brown, but they did little else to ease depth and perimeter shooting worries.
8. New Jersey. (Between 12-1 and 15-1)
Bringing in rookie Marcus Williams could pay off right away, but the Nets' primary problem is the frontcourt, which features too much of soon-to-be-40 forward Puff Robinson. They brought in 22-year-old rookie Mile Ilic, but he's not likely to help right away. It looks like the Nets will have Nenad Krstic, Robinson and Jason Collins, which is a pretty serious problem.
Those are the top contenders, but there isn't one I'd put my mortgage on. Or even your mortgage. These teams are good, but you don't get a sense of greatness here, which leaves this thing open for longshots.
Hmm. Clippers at 30-1? Jazz at 75-1? Hornets at 80-1?
I sure hope this is the year of the longshot.