Prepare for a U.S. Market Crash

[RandomGuy]

For those who, like me, respect Warren Buffet's acumen:


Prepare for a U.S. Market Crash
By Anders Bylund


We're heading into a recession. You've heard about it for months, even years, what with the housing bubble, the war in Iraq, overextended consumer credit -- you name it. A recent Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER - News) report says that the U.S. economy will grow by only 1.9% next year, down from 3.4% this year, and slower than the global growth rate of 5.2%. Even slowpoke Europe should pass us at 2.1%, though the U.S. is ahead of the average European GDP growth rate of 2.7%.

If these numbers are even close to reality, your next course of action should be obvious: Invest somewhere else for a while. The good folks behind that report suggest Japan, India, and Brazil as eminently suitable targets.

What's more, they expect that interest rate differences will cause the dollar to lose value against the yen, Chinese renminbi, and Scandinavian currencies, which means that even mediocre businesses in those regions should produce decent share-price returns over here, thanks to the magic of currency conversion.

Investing guru Warren Buffett seems to agree with the Merrill team. His Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A - News; NYSE: BRK-B - News) just bought its first-ever foreign firm and dropped hints about looking for more. The insurance, fast-food, and underwear conglomerate (among other things) picked up an 80% stake in Israeli toolmaker Iscar Metalworking for $4 billion, and Buffett said that he's facing increased competition from global-minded private equity firms. "They may end up buying some businesses we would have liked to have bought instead," he said.

Now, if you don't feel qualified to distinguish between Toyota and Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM - News), or between Statoil (NYSE: STO - News) and Petrobras, you could dip your toe in these promising markets through mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. Try the no-load, low-cost DFA Japanese Small Company (FUND: DFJSX) to get a manager with eight years of tenure guiding you through the Nikkei, for example. Or get some exposure to Brazil through the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (AMEX: EWZ - News) ETF. I've made profits by holding some iShares MSCI Sweden Index (AMEX: EWD - News) through another dollar dip, and I might do so again.

Even in times of domestic weakness, there are many ways to make money. That's the beauty of the global market, especially when coupled with the information-gathering power of the Internet. You could even check out our Motley Fool International Stock Report for more ideas from our best and brightest analysts. Lycka till, boa sorte, and kouun wo inorimasu -- or just good luck, as we say here in Florida.

Fool contributor Anders Bylund currently holds no position in any of the stocks or funds discussed here, though he drives a Toyota with GEICO insurance. You can check out Anders' holdings if you like. Foolish disclosure applies coast to coast.

Of particular note are the bits about currency swings.

I agree with the author's premise. Now is a good time to invest in funds that are weighted in Asia, and China.
Investing directly in Chinese companies is still extremely risky in my opinion, as they are still very far from a solid "rule of law" foundation and transparent accounting. If you decide to do so, do so with only the small portion of your portfolio aimed at the most risky investments.

[gtownspur]

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/images/season31/episode1421/thumb_snl_1421_downer_wedding_01.jpg

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/segments/6565.shtml?id=2#imganchor

[RandomGuy]

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/images/season31/episode1421/thumb_snl_1421_downer_wedding_01.jpg

http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/segments/6565.shtml?id=2#imganchor

I do think the guy is being a touch too pessimistic, but the US is in for, at the very least, a period of slow economic growth.

He is every bit right about the currency swings tho'.

China has, so far, remained committed to keeping its currency pegged to the US dollar. Recently it has let it "float" (read appreciate) against the dollar, but it can't hold back the dike forever, and will be forced to evenatually let it do so further. The longer it waits the worse the repercussions will be.

Meaning that, sooner or later, if you invest in China, even with flat growth, your renmenbi dominated investments will get some hansome built-in boost from the dollar's slide.

[Yonivore]

I don't know what RG is posting (on ignore) but one should always be prepared for a rainy day.

Judging from what I've read of his credit practices in another thread, I'm judging RG should be panicking. Those of us who are well-positioned in our finances will do just fine.

[RandomGuy]

Federal Reserve to Cut Rates in 2007, Corporate Bond Sales Show

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0USMlBndf_Y&refer=home

Bond traders concur that the economy will be in something of a slump, causing the Fed to cut interest rates to stimulate it.

[johnsmith]

I don't know what RG is posting (on ignore) but one should always be prepared for a rainy day.

Judging from what I've read of his credit practices in another thread, I'm judging RG should be panicking. Those of us who are well-positioned in our finances will do just fine.


Take RG off ignore. RG argues his points well and doesn't stoop to personal attacks like people such as myself. If you put people on ignore, you are no different then Boutons.

[RandomGuy]

I don't know what RG is posting (on ignore) but one should always be prepared for a rainy day.

Judging from what I've read of his credit practices in another thread, I'm judging RG should be panicking. Those of us who are well-positioned in our finances will do just fine.

Actually, holders of variable interest loans such as credit cards, benefit, as do people who consolidate debt (like student loans).

My interest payments will go down allowing me to pay off my debt that much quicker.

[Yonivore]

Take RG off ignore. RG argues his points well and doesn't stoop to personal attacks like people such as myself. If you put people on ignore, you are no different then Boutons.
I have boutons on ignore as well.

[johnsmith]

I have boutons on ignore as well.


You are wise.

[Yonivore]

You are wise.
Profit from my wisdom, put them both on ignore.

[RandomGuy]

Profit from my wisdom, put them both on ignore.

"wisdom"

:rollin

I kid the man. :angel

[101A]

What's the point of being here if you are going to ignore posters?

[Yonivore]

What's the point of being here if you are going to ignore posters?
You're not on ignore.

That's like asking the question what's the point of them being here if they're going to be put on ignore by me?

Their posts don't deserve to be read by me anymore than my presence here demands that I read everyone's posts.

[101A]

Thank you.

[01Snake]

Take RG off ignore. RG argues his points well and doesn't stoop to personal attacks like people such as myself. If you put people on ignore, you are no different then Boutons.

I agree. I like RG's post. While I don't agree with everything, he crafts his arguments well.

[Yonivore]

I agree. I like RG's post. While I don't agree with everything, he crafts his arguments well.
You're not on ignore either.

Why the concern for my seeing Random Guy's musings? I've been in this forum a long time during most of which Random Guy wasn't on ignore. That I choose to ignore him is a choice I believe has improved the forum.

Before, we used to dominate threads by incessantly arguing the same points over and over and over, ad nauseum...generally to the exclusion of almost everyone else in the thread. It got old.

He and I will probably never agree on anything of substance. I believe my points are well sourced and supported, so does he.

What's the point in monopolizing the forum with an effort that goes unappreciated outside our on two egos? Seriously, this isn't a think tank that is accomplishing great things. It's a freakin' political forum populated by a bunch of people that have absolutely no bearing on the outcome of those things over which they argue.

I prefer to stick to entertaining arguments with the tin-foil hat wearers in the forum. Random Guy isn't one of those. Neither is boutons or any of the approximately half dozen other regular posters I have on ignore.

And, if you ask me, a lot of threads are hilarious when you only see one side of the arguments.

Now, move along, there's nothing to see here.

[Nbadan]

This is a web forum where people come to exchange ideas about politics, news, religion, money, and anything else that doesn't belong in the Club or troll forum. Putting people on Ignore is silly, if you can't build consensus by proving your point through debate then your argument hasn't been made strong enough.

[Yonivore]

This is a web forum where people come to exchange ideas about politics, news, religion, money, and anything else that doesn't belong in the Club or troll forum. Putting people on Ignore is silly, if you can't build consensus by proving your point through debate then your argument hasn't been made strong enough.
See, you're not on ignore either. Although, you once were.

Besides, I think Random Guy and I have exchanged just about every idea we've ever had about everything we've ever discussed.

boutons and the others just don't have any ideas worth discussing and they're not entertaining.

So sue me.

Dang, I haven't seen this much concern over a non-issue since Valerie Plame was "outed."

[ChumpDumper]

Putting someone on ignore is an act of cowardice.

[Yonivore]

Putting someone on ignore is an act of cowardice.
Okay, I'll bite.

Then why does Kori even allow the option on her forum? Is she a coward?

Not allowing Mods to be put on ignore is an act of cowardice.

Okay, I'm back to ignoring you even though I can't put you on ignore.

[ChumpDumper]

In the political forum, putting someone on ignore just because one disagrees with another's beliefs is cowardice.

In other areas, not so much.

Good job ignoring me, coward.

If you really, really need to exercise your cowardice with me, I'll make another screen name for this forum that you can freely ignore. Would you like that, coward?

[johnsmith]

You're not on ignore either.

Why the concern for my seeing Random Guy's musings? I've been in this forum a long time during most of which Random Guy wasn't on ignore. That I choose to ignore him is a choice I believe has improved the forum.

Before, we used to dominate threads by incessantly arguing the same points over and over and over, ad nauseum...generally to the exclusion of almost everyone else in the thread. It got old.

He and I will probably never agree on anything of substance. I believe my points are well sourced and supported, so does he.

What's the point in monopolizing the forum with an effort that goes unappreciated outside our on two egos? Seriously, this isn't a think tank that is accomplishing great things. It's a freakin' political forum populated by a bunch of people that have absolutely no bearing on the outcome of those things over which they argue.

I prefer to stick to entertaining arguments with the tin-foil hat wearers in the forum. Random Guy isn't one of those. Neither is boutons or any of the approximately half dozen other regular posters I have on ignore.

And, if you ask me, a lot of threads are hilarious when you only see one side of the arguments.

Now, move along, there's nothing to see here.


Yoni is my new favorite spurstalk posting guy.

[Yonivore]

In the political forum, putting someone on ignore just because one disagrees with another's beliefs is cowardice.

In other areas, not so much.

Good job ignoring me, coward.

If you really, really need to exercise your cowardice with me, I'll make another screen name for this forum that you can freely ignore. Would you like that, coward?
Really, how old are you? Seriously, you had me fooled into thinking you were at least an adult...until I read this post.

As I just explained, I'm not ignoring Random Guy because I disagree with him. If that were the case, there'd be a whole lot more people on ignore. I put him on ignore, and would do the same with you if I could, because our discussions are neither productive or conclusive...they just go on forever and ever and ever.

For those of you who asked the question, this is what I'm talking about. I call it feeding the monkey. Let's see if he throws more dung at me.

[ChumpDumper]

If you really, really need to exercise your cowardice with me, I'll make another screen name for this forum that you can freely ignore. Would you like that, coward?

[Yonivore]

If you really, really need to exercise your cowardice with me, I'll make another screen name for this forum that you can freely ignore. Would you like that, coward?
Hey, ChumpDumper, seriously, do what you want. Be sure an check with your mother first though.

[ChumpDumper]

Hey, Yoni, seriously, you are the one bitching about not being able to put me on ignore. If it doesn't bother you STFU about it.

[Yonivore]

Hey, Yoni, seriously, you are the one bitching about not being able to put me on ignore. If it doesn't bother you STFU about it.
See, now this is entertaining.

[ChumpDumper]

The entertaining part is your refusal to answer a simple question.

[Yonivore]

The entertaining part is your refusal to answer a simple question.
Which question is that?

[johnsmith]

The entertaining part is your refusal to answer a simple question.


I think it's more entertaining reading about Chumpdumper getting all worked up into a little fit.

[Yonivore]

I think it's more entertaining reading about Chumpdumper getting all worked up into a little fit.
That's what I'm talking about.

I can just picture him sitting there in his diaper, with a bottle and his binkie, pounding his keys.

Just how many keyboards have your parents had to spring for Chump?

[ChumpDumper]

If you really, really need to exercise your cowardice with me, I'll make another screen name for this forum that you can freely ignore. Would you like that, coward?

[johnsmith]

That's what I'm talking about.

I can just picture him sitting there in his diaper, with a bottle and his binkie, pounding his keys.

Just how many keyboards have your parents had to spring for Chump?


See, I picture something totally different. What I'm picturing is a 20 something young man that never had very many friends and lives in his parents basement and now he's found the perfect outlet, the internet. He can be whatever/whoever he wants to be on here and no one knows any better. To make matters even more wonderful for him is that someone made him a moderator on this site so now he actually has some "power" over others entertainment.
He's finally exacting revenge on everyone for making fun of him throughout his youth and he's loving every second of it. Sure he hasn't been laid since MC Hammer had a top ten hit, but it doesn't matter to him, he's a moderator.

[Yonivore]

If you really, really need to exercise your cowardice with me, I'll make another screen name for this forum that you can freely ignore. Would you like that, coward?
I actually did answer that question -- wow, and here I was thinking I'd missed something. Maybe you had formula in your eye or something.


Hey, ChumpDumper, seriously, do what you want. Be sure an check with your mother first though.
Remember that; or, were you napping?

[ChumpDumper]

It's not about what I want, dipshit. I asked what YOU want.

The funny part is that I'm offerring a solution to the oppression Yoni feels subjected to because of my mod status. But it's easier for posters to cry about being oppressed by big bad mods even though this is one of the least regulated forums on the internets.

[Yonivore]

See, I picture something totally different. What I'm picturing is a 20 something young man that never had very many friends and lives in his parents basement and now he's found the perfect outlet, the internet. He can be whatever/whoever he wants to be on here and no one knows any better. To make matters even more wonderful for him is that someone made him a moderator on this site so now he actually has some "power" over others entertainment.
He's finally exacting revenge on everyone for making fun of him throughout his youth and he's loving every second of it. Sure he hasn't been laid since MC Hammer had a top ten hit, but it doesn't matter to him, he's a moderator.
I try not to make those characterizations. If you're right, you're only going to contribute to the time when we all see his neighbors on the 6:00 o'clock news saying, "he was such a quiet guy, seemed really nice."

[Yonivore]

It's not about what I want, dipshit. I asked what YOU want.

The funny part is that I'm offerring a solution to the oppression Yoni feels subjected to because of my mod status. But it's easier for posters to cry about being oppressed by big bad mods even though this is one of the least regulated forums on the internets.
You're not acting very "mod" right now.

[ChumpDumper]

You're not acting very "mod" right now.Exactly.

[Yonivore]

It's not about what I want, dipshit. I asked what YOU want.

The funny part is that I'm offerring a solution to the oppression Yoni feels subjected to because of my mod status. But it's easier for posters to cry about being oppressed by big bad mods even though this is one of the least regulated forums on the internets.
Okay, if you're into what I want. Disappear. Just quit posting here. Quit being a moderator and get your ass out of the forum. You don't contribute anything of value and you're an idiot of a poster.

There, happy? Will I get what I want now?

[ChumpDumper]

That wasn't a choice.

Why is it so difficult for you to understand this question?

You feel oppressed. I offer a solution to your alleged oppression. You can't answer. What is your problem?

[johnsmith]

You're not acting very "mod" right now.


:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

[Yonivore]

That wasn't a choice.

Why is it so difficult for you to understand this question?

You feel oppressed. I offer a solution to your alleged oppression. You can't answer. What is your problem?
I have answered. I said do what you want. I'm sorry your grasp of the English language is so limited.

But, if you'll look at the post where you demanded an answer, you weren't so limiting.


It's not about what I want, dipshit. I asked what YOU want.
So, I told you what I want.

Whether or not you post under another pseudonym makes no difference to me. If I decided to put you on ignore and was able to, I would. But, when you open-ended asked me what I wanted. I told you.

[johnsmith]

Ooooh, I know what I want.........I want Chump to finally finish that online game of Stratego so he will leave the internet forever.

[ChumpDumper]

It's ok Yoni. It's your usual cowardly practice to avoid direct questions like that. Now you can STFU about not being able to put me on ignore from now on.

[johnsmith]

It's ok Yoni. It's your usual cowardly practice to avoid direct questions like that. Now you can STFU about not being able to put me on ignore from now on.


Look at you ruling the boards with an iron fist. :rolleyes

[ChumpDumper]

The oppressed have spoken!

And said absolutely nothing.

[Yonivore]

Back to the original question, if you really want a good example of why I have RandomGuy on ignore, just look at this thread (http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=48166). A good chunk of that thread is Phenomanul and RandomGuy going back and forth over and over the same freakin' thing time and time again.

He repeatedly had his ass handed to him and would not relent. It gets tiring and I just refuse to go there with him anymore.

[temujin]

Is ignoring the ignorers an ignorant act?

[Yonivore]

Is ignoring the ignorers an ignorant act?
Nah, it's probably prudent.

[RandomGuy]

(good natured poke at the combatants)
(makes a bowl of popcorn):corn:

Man this is entertainment. Not as good as watching the spurs pwn Denver, but it will do in the off season. :flag:

*munch* *munch*

Dork!! :frying:

Nutcase!! :nutkick:

Dweeb!! :stfu

Jerk!! :makemyday

[Yonivore]

See?

http://img95.imageshack.us/img95/1338/ignoreduv6.gif

Works great.

[clambake]

Yoni ignores me without having to put me on his ignore list. He is also not fond of clarifying statements he made from outer space. Maybe it had something to do with the statements weightlessness.

Get it?

[Zunni]

Yoni is my new favorite spurstalk posting guy.
You don't ask for much, do you?

[smeagol]

Responding to the title of this thread: No, there will be no market crash (in the US). And if there were to be one, it's stupid to buy international stocks because when the US market crashes, it takes with it Therest of the Wordl's makets.

With regards to other themes in this thread, I don't get why people put other people on ignore.

And whoever has Yoni as their favorite poster (and you know I like you, TRO :angel ), needs to rethink many things. :lol

[Yonivore]

With regards to other themes in this thread, I don't get why people put other people on ignore.
Sometimes it's simply because they clutter the thread with nonsense.

[smeagol]

Sometimes it's simply because they clutter the thread with nonsense.
Even so.

But hey, it's a free country and a free site.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Investing guru Warren Buffett seems to agree with the Merrill team. His Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A - News; NYSE: BRK-B - News) just bought its first-ever foreign firm and dropped hints about looking for more. The insurance, fast-food, and underwear conglomerate (among other things) picked up an 80% stake in Israeli toolmaker Iscar Metalworking for $4 billion, and Buffett said that he's facing increased competition from global-minded private equity firms. "They may end up buying some businesses we would have liked to have bought instead," he said.

Buffett's purchase wasn't because of fear of a recession, it was because he's pretty tapped out here in the U.S. and looking to expand internationally.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Take RG off ignore. RG argues his points well and doesn't stoop to personal attacks like people such as myself. If you put people on ignore, you are no different then Boutons.

Agreed that RG is a very reasonable poster.

Yonivore obviously only wants to read things that confirm his opinions.

Notice the plethora of extra evidence for EGW that's come out in the last month or two since our last tangle, Yoni? Notice that big business, and even your own govt, is talking about changing its policy on that one? Nah, you only hear what you want to...

As for the recession, it's been coming for a while, and where the US goes the world will follow. I'm waiting for the usual October stockmarket correction so I can get into some attractive renewable energy shares I've been tracking... ;)

[Yonivore]

But hey, it's a free country and a free site.
Exactly. And, I choose to exercise my freedom to use the ignore feature of this forum at my discretion.

[Yonivore]

Agreed that RG is a very reasonable poster.

Yonivore obviously only wants to read things that confirm his opinions.
If that were the case I wouldn't be reading you or Nbadan or FromWayDowntown along with several other with whom I differ in opinion.


Notice the plethora of extra evidence for EGW that's come out in the last month or two since our last tangle, Yoni? Notice that big business, and even your own govt, is talking about changing its policy on that one? Nah, you only hear what you want to...
I actually posted on EGW (I almost wasn't able to translate the acronym) just today.

And, I've argued in the past that their may be global warming but that there is far from conclusive evidence that it is caused by man.

But, the real cruxt of my argument is that even if global warming is occurring, economy-busting measures like Kyoto would turn us into a third world economy before even beginning to address any meaningful reductions in green house gases.

If the administration is changing its policy on global warming they've obviously found a way to shut up the critics while saving the economy.

[RandomGuy]

It's ok Yoni. It's your usual cowardly practice to avoid direct questions like that. Now you can STFU about not being able to put me on ignore from now on.

Yoni IS the class bully. He can dish it out all day long, but can't take it back.

Don't let him get to you.

[RandomGuy]

Responding to the title of this thread: No, there will be no market crash (in the US). And if there were to be one, it's stupid to buy internationsl bonds because when the US market crashes, it takes with him trhe rest of the Wordl's makets.

With regards to other themes in this thread, I don't get why people put other people on ignore.

And whoever has Yoni as their favorite poster (and you know I like you, TRO :angel ), needs to rethink many things. :lol

It isn't the world markets that will make money. It will be the currency slide.

[ChumpDumper]

Yoni IS the class bully.Are you kidding? He's the victim of mod oppression!
He can dish it out all day long, but can't take it back.Can't even answer a simple yes or no question.
Don't let him get to you.Feh. He's no whottt.

[RandomGuy]

Are you kidding? He's the victim of mod oppression!Can't even answer a simple yes or no question.Feh. He's no whottt.

You really want to put sand in his thong?

Keep responding to my posts. (think about it)

[johnsmith]

(good natured poke at the combatants)
(makes a bowl of popcorn):corn:

Man this is entertainment. Not as good as watching the spurs pwn Denver, but it will do in the off season. :flag:

*munch* *munch*

Dork!! :frying:

Nutcase!! :nutkick:

Dweeb!! :stfu

Jerk!! :makemyday

I hate when you sneak these ones in.

[RandomGuy]

I hate when you sneak these ones in.

(laughs)

Wondered when you would notice that one. :angel

[RandomGuy]

Back to the topic at hand tho:

I think the advice/thrust of the original article is that one should hedge a little against a market downturn, more so than the article being 100% doom and gloom.

[MannyIsGod]

I think its funny Yonivore spent pages discussing a person he's "ignoring".

[RandomGuy]

I think its funny Yonivore spent pages discussing a person he's "ignoring".

I honestly think he has me on ignore because I am the most effective person at calling him on his B.S.

It is a safe bet that we can all acknowledge that he really isn't interested in learning or reading about ideas he doesn't agree with any more than boutons is.

Given this bit of information, which is more probable:
A) He ignores someone because he thinks they are silly (as he says).
or
B) He ignores someone because he knows that person will challenge his ideas effectively (as I think).

(shrugs)
It used to really bother me, but I have come to terms with it. If he is happy in his cocoon, peace be onto him. I wish him well in that cocoon. Not that I won't poke him on occasion... :angel

[smeagol]

I honestly think he has me on ignore because I am the most effective person at calling him on his B.S.

It is a safe bet that we can all acknowledge that he really isn't interested in learning or reading about ideas he doesn't agree with any more than boutons is.

Given this bit of information, which is more probable:
A) He ignores someone because he thinks they are silly (as he says).
or
B) He ignores someone because he knows that person will challenge his ideas effectively (as I think).

(shrugs)
It used to really bother me, but I have come to terms with it. If he is happy in his cocoon, peace be onto him. I wish him well in that cocoon. Not that I won't poke him on occasion... :angel
I did this simply because I want Yoni to be able to read you posts :lol

[Yonivore]

I did this simply because I want Yoni to be able to read you posts :lol
Actually, FromWayDowntown, is much better at it and I don't have him on ignore. Go figure.

[2centsworth]

My opinion on posters who I don't agree with most of the time.

Dan- Very intelligent but a communist
Buttons- A communist but boy he knows his basketball.
FWDT- Very good poster
Manny- well informed don't agree with most of what he says but he's cool.
RG- No real world experience and talks funny, but has potential.
Chump- doesn't say anything but supports all liberal causes

[smeagol]

My opinion on posters who I don't agree with most of the time.

Dan- Very intelligent but a communist
Buttons- A communist but boy he knows his basketball.
FWDT- Very good poster
Manny- well informed don't agree with most of what he says but he's cool.
RG- No real world experience and talks funny, but has potential.
Chump- doesn't say anything but supports all liberal causes
Phew . . . I thought I was going to make your list.

[RandomGuy]

My opinion on posters who I don't agree with most of the time.

Dan- Very intelligent but a communist
Buttons- A communist but boy he knows his basketball.
FWDT- Very good poster
Manny- well informed don't agree with most of what he says but he's cool.
RG- No real world experience and talks funny, but has potential.
Chump- doesn't say anything but supports all liberal causes

?? "no real world experience?"

Dude, counting the 4 yrs in the army, I have worked more in my adult life than I have been in school. What counts as "real world experience"?

[2centsworth]

Phew . . . I thought I was going to make your list.
smartalic...sorry for you we agree a lot.

[2centsworth]

?? "no real world experience?"

Dude, counting the 4 yrs in the army, I have worked more in my adult life than I have been in school. What counts as "real world experience"?
I respect your service, but real world business experience is what I'm referring to.

[Yonivore]

My opinion on posters who I don't agree with most of the time.

Dan- Very intelligent but a communist
Buttons- A communist but boy he knows his basketball.
FWDT- Very good poster
Manny- well informed don't agree with most of what he says but he's cool.
RG- No real world experience and talks funny, but has potential.
Chump- doesn't say anything but supports all liberal causes
Does that mean you agree with me?

[Guru of Nothing]

I respect your service, but real world business experience is what I'm referring to.

What is your "real world" business experience? What is UNreal world business?

Brevity is encouraged.

[Guru of Nothing]

I'll further inquire, does time served in, say, the telemarketing trenches trump another's "real" world military experience, when it comes to business?

Is "real" business that simplistic?

[ChumpDumper]

Chump- doesn't say anything but supports all liberal causes:lmao

Whottt challenged me to take the political compass test. Turns out you're wrong. Nothing new.

[RandomGuy]

I respect your service, but real world business experience is what I'm referring to.

I built and delivered computers for 3 years too (mmm tech boom), does that count?

After that, I started college and worked full/part time in a series of low pay jobs that offered the hours flexibility required by college students.
Mostly, I worked in retail book stores (surprise), and eventually a security jobs that let me read and study while babysitting buildings at night.

I have also started my own bookkeeping company and did quite well at that. My clients all would tell you that the $20/hour that I charged ended up saving them more money than I was costing them.

Just because I like to read a lot, doesn't mean that I haven't gotten out into the "real" world of business. I don't do the bookkeeping thing anymore due to a sheer lack of time, but I still help out the occassional entrepeneur (neighbors mostly) by offering pro bono advice on taxes, labor, fixed costs, etc. Well maybe not pro bono, my fee is a cheap tex-mex meal and a beer. :angel

(shrugs)
Some donate time to soup kitchens, I help people by educating them about business and finance.

[RandomGuy]

:lmao

Whottt challenged me to take the political compass test. Turns out you're wrong. Nothing new.


Heh, I took that. Turns out that I share the same views with the Dalai Lama. His dot on the "world leader" graph and my score were almost identical.

For whatever that is worth.

[Yonivore]

:lmao

Whottt challenged me to take the political compass test. Turns out you're wrong. Nothing new.
Yeah, because we all know you can't skew the results of the iron-clad "political compass test."

I'm convinced.

[ChumpDumper]

Well, I'm convinced you're a compulsive liar who has never had an original thought in his tiny, death-loving head.

Plenty of evidence here for that.

[Yonivore]

Well, I'm convinced you're a compulsive liar who has never had an original thought in his tiny, death-loving head.

Plenty of evidence here for that.
Okay. Thanks for playing.

[RandomGuy]

Yeah, because we all know you can't skew the results of the iron-clad "political compass test."

I'm convinced.


Fallacy: Circumstantial Ad Hominem

Description of Circumstantial Ad Hominem
A Circumstantial ad Hominem is a fallacy in which one attempts to attack a claim by asserting that the person making the claim is making it simply out of self interest. In some cases, this fallacy involves substituting an attack on a person's circumstances (such as the person's religion, political affiliation, ethnic background, etc.). The fallacy has the following forms:


Person A makes claim X.
Person B asserts that A makes claim X because it is in A's interest to claim X.
Therefore claim X is false.

[2centsworth]

I built and delivered computers for 3 years too (mmm tech boom), does that count?

After that, I started college and worked full/part time in a series of low pay jobs that offered the hours flexibility required by college students.
Mostly, I worked in retail book stores (surprise), and eventually a security jobs that let me read and study while babysitting buildings at night.

I have also started my own bookkeeping company and did quite well at that. My clients all would tell you that the $20/hour that I charged ended up saving them more money than I was costing them.

Just because I like to read a lot, doesn't mean that I haven't gotten out into the "real" world of business. I don't do the bookkeeping thing anymore due to a sheer lack of time, but I still help out the occassional entrepeneur (neighbors mostly) by offering pro bono advice on taxes, labor, fixed costs, etc. Well maybe not pro bono, my fee is a cheap tex-mex meal and a beer. :angel

(shrugs)
Some donate time to soup kitchens, I help people by educating them about business and finance.

RG, I'm just looking for a little more "real" world experience from someone who makes the predictions and absolute statements that you do. Especially when you're talking about finance. I think you have potential, but IMO you think you know too much and should be open to opposing points of view.

[2centsworth]

I'll further inquire, does time served in, say, the telemarketing trenches trump another's "real" world military experience, when it comes to business?

Is "real" business that simplistic?if it did there's no doubt you would have the most "real" world business experience.

[2centsworth]

Does that mean you agree with me?
sometimes yes and other times I don't know. I surely do like watching you, FWD, Scott, extrastout and some of the better posters go back and forth.

[Guru of Nothing]

RG, I'm just looking for a little more "real" world experience from someone who makes the predictions and absolute statements that you do. Especially when you're talking about finance. I think you have potential, but IMO you think you know too much and should be open to opposing points of view.

...............nevermind, no sense in highlighting the obvious.

[2centsworth]

...............nevermind, no sense in highlighting the obvious.
you're blind.

[Guru of Nothing]

you're blind.

You are wise and intelligent.

[RandomGuy]

RG, I'm just looking for a little more "real" world experience from someone who makes the predictions and absolute statements that you do. Especially when you're talking about finance. I think you have potential, but IMO you think you know too much and should be open to opposing points of view.

Looks like I had enough experience to have been right.

I do listen to opposing views and take them into consideration.

Evaluating what you read means taking the weight of EVERYTHING you read.

You, unfortunately, are pretty much exactly what you say I am: someone who ONLY sees one side of an argument"

You are a poster child for confirmation bias.

I did take the optimistic accounts and used them to evaluate my underlying assumptions about the ultimate probability of a such a meltdown.

The weight of evidence pointed to what eventually came to pass.

[SpursFanFirst]

Really, how old are you? Seriously, you had me fooled into thinking you were at least an adult...until I read this post.

As I just explained, I'm not ignoring Random Guy because I disagree with him. If that were the case, there'd be a whole lot more people on ignore. I put him on ignore, and would do the same with you if I could, because our discussions are neither productive or conclusive...they just go on forever and ever and ever.

For those of you who asked the question, this is what I'm talking about. I call it feeding the monkey. Let's see if he throws more dung at me.

Why can't you put Chump on ignore?

edit: dang it, RandomGuy! :lol Why do you keep bumping these old threads?!?!
Once again, I just noticed the date.
But I would still like to know why Chump can't be put on ignore.

[2centsworth]

Looks like I had enough experience to have been right.

I do listen to opposing views and take them into consideration.

Evaluating what you read means taking the weight of EVERYTHING you read.

You, unfortunately, are pretty much exactly what you say I am: someone who ONLY sees one side of an argument"

You are a poster child for confirmation bias.

I did take the optimistic accounts and used them to evaluate my underlying assumptions about the ultimate probability of a such a meltdown.

The weight of evidence pointed to what eventually came to pass.

Do you know the market was up last week? You are the poster child for someone who wants his ego stroked, but even the reason why you "supposedly" predicted a market crash was wrong.

It's obvious when things go bad you vindicated for some reason or another.

The other side to this argument is the government needs to provide needed liquidity so financial insitutions aren't forced into fire sales. 12 months from now the market will be past this, but long-term if you ever took the time to read my post, I'm an economic pessimist.

[cool hand]

it will happen when people pull their money out of their IRA's and 401K's en mass. I am doing it tommorrow.

[ChumpDumper]

Why can't you put Chump on ignore?

edit: dang it, RandomGuy! :lol Why do you keep bumping these old threads?!?!
Once again, I just noticed the date.
But I would still like to know why Chump can't be put on ignore.I used to me a mod and hence unignorable. No longer the case.

[SpursFanFirst]

I used to me a mod and hence unignorable. No longer the case.


ah

[Wild Cobra]

it will happen when people pull their money out of their IRA's and 401K's en mass. I am doing it tommorrow.
That will be a stupid move. Right now, buying in at a lower stock price, you buy more shares each pay period. They will be rising your portfolio price when the market recovers. Now if you think the market will continue to drop, and confident in market timing, then move your stocks to something more stable. Then move back into stocks before the market rallys. Otherwise, the smartest move is to buy more at the lower prices, take your max 15% on the 401k! You will be happy when the market recovers!

[Anti.Hero]

it will happen when people pull their money out of their IRA's and 401K's en mass. I am doing it tommorrow.

Word! Buy high sell low!

[RandomGuy]

it will happen when people pull their money out of their IRA's and 401K's en mass. I am doing it tommorrow.

I would only do so if I were about to retire.

If your time window is longer than 8 years or so, then don't bother.

[RandomGuy]

Do you know the market was up last week? You are the poster child for someone who wants his ego stroked, but even the reason why you "supposedly" predicted a market crash was wrong.

It's obvious when things go bad you vindicated for some reason or another.

The other side to this argument is the government needs to provide needed liquidity so financial insitutions aren't forced into fire sales. 12 months from now the market will be past this, but long-term if you ever took the time to read my post, I'm an economic pessimist.

As I said before, you are a slave to your bias.

The title of the thread is the title of the article. It is an eye-catching one, but not my words specifically.

I also said that I thought the article was pessimistic. I stated the bit in the article that I agreed on, namely that the dollar was in for something of a slide.

Given the intervening two years, the dollar slid, and the "market will crash" scenario was pessimistic.

I have strongly suspected that some real blood letting would happen after learning that a lot of the subprime stuff got repackaged into CDOs, but was suprised at the scope so far. The other thread I posted noted the dangers of the ARMs that have helped cause this mess and that some real spikes in defaults seemed to be coming.

You dislike me, so you automatically assume that what I say is somehow flawed, and instead of reading my actual words in this thread, you simply read the thread title and assumed that I was all "OMG the sky is falling".

[2centsworth]

I have strongly suspected that some real blood letting would happen after learning that a lot of the subprime stuff got repackaged into CDOs, but was suprised at the scope so far. The other thread I posted noted the dangers of the ARMs that have helped cause this mess and that some real spikes in defaults seemed to be coming. I'm shocked at how far it's escalated.



You dislike me, so you automatically assume that what I say is somehow flawed, and instead of reading my actual words in this thread, you simply read the thread title and assumed that I was all "OMG the sky is falling".

I don't dislike you. I dislike your biases such as, business is predatory & republicans are racists.

[RandomGuy]

I'm shocked at how far it's escalated.

I don't dislike you. I dislike your biases such as, business is predatory & republicans are racists.

I don't think business is predatory. Business CAN be predatory, and I think that the vast majority of publicly traded corporations have corporate boards that represent the interests of management over the interests of shareholders, and I can easily point to Enron, Tyco, Worldcom, Countrywide, and the current crisis as aple evidence of this.

I DO think there is a strong streak of racism on the part of more republicans than the average Republican would care to admit to, and I don't have to dig to far for evidence of this.

In general Republicans are NOT card carrying members of the KKK.

Is the republican party inherently racist? No.

BUT

I do view the party as the party of rich white guys, by rich white guys, and for rich white guys.

The fact that it took until 2008 to have the first potential woman VP, and NEVER has had a serious woman candidate for the presidency would tend to indicate this.

The fact that you would have to put some serious effort into finding anybody from a racial minority at the convention would also tend to indicate this.

There is no shame in representing the interests of rich white guys. They need a party to represent them just like any other group in a democracy, but don't lie to me and tell me that the party in general really cares about anybody else.