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timvp
10-29-2004, 01:00 AM
Palmeiro chooses to stay put

Rafael Palmeiro didn't want his homecoming with the Baltimore Orioles to end after just one season, so he took a pay cut and accepted a one-year, $3 million contract yesterday.

Palmeiro, 40, returned to the Orioles this season after a five-year absence. He batted .258 with 23 homers and 88 RBIs -- the first time since 1994 that he failed to hit at least 38 homers and drive in 100 runs. "I said last year that I wanted to retire as an Oriole. That hasn't changed," said Palmeiro, who ranks 10th on the career list with 551 homers and is just 78 hits short of 3,000.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/articles/2004/10/28/palmeiro_chooses_to_stay_put/

whottt
10-29-2004, 03:32 AM
Figured he wouldn't be going back to Texas...they split on bad terms and IMO the Rangers knifed him in the back for absolutely no reason.

While Raffy had a down season this year(for him) in HR and RBI, and the Rangers offense tore it up...Raffy still would have been the best DH on their team, and the best defensive 1stbaseman.

I expect Raffy to be around at least another 2 years and maybe 3...and finish with numbers that will be among the best ever cumulative totals for a career...unfortunately he is of the same generation, and playing in the same era as Barry Bonds. If Barry weren't just a total freak, Raffy's numbers at his age would be pretty amazing from a historical perspective...Barry's a tough act to follow, he's definitely the toughest 40 year old act to follow in history...but then Pudge, Ripken and Arod were tough acts to follow as well...hence Raffy's anonymity, despite having some of the best career power numbers of anyone not named Ruth, Mays, Aaron or Bonds.

Next season...3000 hits. After that...600+ HR, Doubles..and possibly 2000 RBI. Hopefully a WS appearance.

FromWayDowntown
10-29-2004, 11:10 AM
the best career power numbers of anyone not named Ruth, Mays, Aaron or Bonds

aren't you forgetting Frank Robinson? :lol

Not to restart an old debate, but I still find it interesting that Frank Robinson is so "inferior" to Palmiero. Raffy now has more at bats than Robinson did, yet he trails Robinson in very major category, other than doubles. I guess Palmiero's statistical inferiority, despite playing in the era of Nintendo-like offensive numbers, is proof enough that Robinson doesn't warrant inclusion in the discussion of great sluggers.

whottt
10-29-2004, 05:16 PM
I never said Robinson was inferior to Palmeiro. I said Robinson isn't the greatest player from the state of Texas. He's not. Still he's a great player, the man won a triple crown. But Robinson and Palemiro are still about the same caliber of player. Robinson isn't in the league of Mays, Aaron, Ruth or Bonds either.

And Robinson may have better numbers in fewer AB's but it took him more games and more years to put up those numbers...by the time Raffy has played in as many games/years as Robinson they will be about equal in most catergories, with Palmeiro being the superior in HR, XBH and RBI...Robinson was unquestionably the better base thief...but that's about it.

FromWayDowntown
10-29-2004, 05:50 PM
Just so you know, whottt, I'm not trying to pick a fight here. I just love to talk baseball history and discuss great players and hear the arguments of others defending their choices. Baseball is wonderfully unique in the comparative arguments that exist across eras.

I agree with you that Palmiero and F. Robinson are historically close. I just think Robinson is the better player. I understand where you're coming from. Still . . . .


And Robinson may have better numbers in fewer AB's but it took him more games and more years to put up those numbers

I not really sure how much of a difference games played and years of service makes -- a player can only accumulate offensive statistics during a plate appearance. In his 2808 games, over 21 years, Robinson had 11426 plate appearances. In his 2721 games, over 19 years, Palmiero has 11413 plate appearances. The difference is 13 plate appearances, regardless of games or seasons played. And with his 13 additional plate appearances, Robinson's numbers are better than Palmiero's, with the exception of doubles.

In the two "extra" years that Robinson played, he accumulated 185 additional at bats, hit 12 home runs, and drove in 34 runs. At the 19-year mark of his career, Robinson had 574 home runs, 1778 RBI, in 9821 at bats. Palmiero, at 19 years, has almost 200 more at-bats, but still has fewer home runs and RBI, despite having played in a juiced ball era.

It's not like there's a set number of at-bats per game. Palmiero may have more at-bats in fewer games and years because his teams played more extra inning games or higher scoring games, or because his team trailed at home in the 9th more often. At this point, the career difference in AB is accounted for if Palmiero just got one additional at-bat in 100 games. The career difference favoring Robinson in PA is insignificant.

If you think years and games are more crucial than AB or PA, I'd be honestly curious to hear your reasoning.

whottt
10-29-2004, 08:39 PM
First of all...I'm not going to argue real hard that Palmeiro is better than Robinson at this stage, for 1 simple reason, he isn't. I have no leg to stand on in that argument...

I'd agree that Robinson is the better of the two, there's just too much working in his favor..Robinson has superior career numbers at this point, the triple crown, the World Series play, I think Robinson is still the only man to win an MVP in each league...but it's not a huge margin...Raffy's had better seasons than Robinson's triple crown year for instance, better years than Robinson's other MVP year as well...it's not like Palmeiro doesn't belong on the same field as Robinson. It's not like it's an insult to compare them...They are very close. And by the time Raffy has played 22 seasons I think he will have superior numbers...and if he gets them by playing in more games I consider that a plus, not a negative. I'll show you why I feel that way later.

As for why I value games played...Health. A player that can take the field is better than one that can't, 99% of the time, regardless of what he does at the plate. I do tend to evaluate production based on a per game basis moreso than based on AB...because I feel it is a truer measure of contribution...AB are a factor in favoring players who drew a lot of BB or got on base via other methods other than hitting, even if they were being less productive in the number of times they actually went to the plate.

And one thing that isn't often mentioned about Palmeiro..he is one of the 4 most durable players in history...in terms of 150 game seasons only Pete Rose and Eddie Murray have more. In terms of 150 game seasons consecutively(not counting strike years) he is tied with only Cal Ripken...Palmeiro, not Ripken, played in the most games in the 1990's. Health is a good thing, durability is a good thing. A player should not be penalized for it...Injury is a bad thing...and while you may not feel a player should be penalized for it...the other team is going to do just that.


I do think games played is definitely more important than AB, and slightly more important than PA's. AB's are misleading as are OBP and SLG, they suffer from BB inflation while PA's don't...You can have a productive PA without getting an AB...you have have a productive run scoring PA while lowering your OBP.

It's like this...if 2 players have identical statistics..EG: 5 hits, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 5 RS...through a 5 game period...

Player A accumulates those totals in 1 game and is injured the next 4 games(this would be the best single game any player ever had BTW). Infinity PCT's...

Player B accumulates those totals in all 5 games, realistic PCT's.

I think player B's contribution was more valuable. He contributed in 5 games...5 potential wins. Player A only made contributions to 1 game, 1 potential win. Sometimes 1 run is enough to win a game, sometimes 20 isn't.

But anyway I don't think that's what you were really asking. Sorry for the digression...but that's a problem I have with a lot of sabremetric methods..they have a less is more slant to their forumla that irritates me. A player can help his team even if all he does is make an out...even if all he provides is glove work.

So for that reason I do rate games played very highly and TPA more highly than AB. So I am not even going to use AB as a factor...I'll use PA instead, it's a truer measure.

As for Raffy and Robinson's PA...I have totally different numbers than you do...

I show that Robinson has well over 100 more PA than Palmeiro...give Raffy that 120 PA and the power numbers between the two are even closer.


Robinson also has grounded into a ton more double plays, those hurt and very few stats measure their impact.

IMO, by the time Raffy has put in 22 years, he will have played in more games he was eligible to play in, in the same number of years, and put up better numbers. Even still it won't be an incredibly strong argument...Robinson was an excellent baserunner...and he won. Plus he played in a more pitching dominated era....But Raffy will have filled the role of powerhitter better than Robinson did, just looking at cumulative stats.

I might not have that philosophy putting a player up against a Ruth or Williams...but neither Raffy or Robinson are those types of players...they are more of the meat and potatoes types of players, and I feel comparing them this way to each other is fair.