At least we have 3 in the top 25

[RC's Boss]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/rankings?pos=null&start=15

[RC's Boss]

Shit! Jackie butler is #42. guess we'll have to wait until Feb. or mar. before we see those results...

[Kori Ellis]

There's 3 in top 25.

[RC's Boss]

Yeah, ijust corrected it thanks.

[Kori Ellis]

18. Duncan:

2006-07 (projected) .469 .631 20.9 12.8 3.3 --- --- 9.9 24.4 19.0 21.89

2005-06 season: It was a horrible year by Duncan's standards and a great one by everybody else's. Hobbled by plantar fasciitis for much of the season, Duncan suffered the indignity of failing to make first-team All-NBA for the first time in his nine-year career, and suffered career lows in points, rebounds, blocks and shooting percentage.

Offensively, Duncan took a back seat to Parker for much of the season as he lacked the usual spring in his step. That prevented him from getting as many easy baskets as normal, and his field-goal percentage suffered. Between that and his always dicey free-throw shooting, Duncan's True Shooting Percentage ranked only 42nd among power forwards.

Just in case you thought Duncan's career was taking a nosedive, he came back with a vengeance in the playoffs. Despite the setback against Dallas in the second round, Duncan completely dominated. He had an 11-for-11, 28-point first half in Game 5 and came back with 41 in Game 7, nearly pulling the series out for San Antonio after they fell behind 3-1. His 30.55 PER for the postseason was easily the league's best -- yes, better than Dwyane Wade's.

Defensively, Duncan wasn't quite his dominant self last year because of the foot problems. Although he had never won the Defensive Player of the Year award, there's a fair amount of evidence that Duncan -- not Ron Artest or Ben Wallace -- was the game's best defender during the first half of the decade. He wasn't anywhere near that caliber of player in 2005-06 and was fortunate to earn second-team All-Defense honors, although he did manage to block more than two shots a game.

Scouting report: Duncan showed in the playoffs that he's still an elite post player who requires double-teaming. While the smooth mid-range bank shot from the left wing is his signature move, perhaps a more devastating one is when he goes hard to his right from that spot and virtually forces defenders to foul him. He repeatedly beat Dallas' big men that way in the playoffs, and can pull back and shoot the trademark bank shot if defenders overplay it.

Of course, double-teaming Duncan comes with its own risks, as he's an adept passer from the post and the Spurs have always made sure to surround him with plenty of 3-point shooters. However, he's prone to turnovers, especially when guards reach in as he puts the ball on the floor.

Defensively, Duncan never gets the credit he's due because he slams the door in such unspectacular fashion. Most of his blocked shots are tipped to teammates rather than highlight-reel swats into section 214, and he almost never leaves his feet on a shot fake. Instead, he uses his timing and long arms to deny attempts around the basket and take away second-shot chances. The Spurs don't often put him in one-on-one matchups against opposing stars, but he more than holds his own in those pairings as well.

As an added bonus, Duncan is the game's most level-headed superstar. Any conversation with a Spurs exec won't last more than five minutes without him gushing about how much easier life is with a star player who is so egoless and coachable.

2006-07 outlook: This shapes up as an interesting season for Duncan, because I see two paths ahead. One path is the start of a gentle downward trend. Duncan turned 30 in April and the foot injury and his increasing proneness to ankle sprains could be taken as signs of diminishing productivity ahead. Certainly the projections see things that way.

However, the projections didn't see him in the playoffs. Duncan's domination of Dallas showed that he's still an MVP-caliber player when healthy, and if he can stay at that level for a good chunk of 2006-07 the Spurs should trample the rest of the league.

Most similar at age: Patrick Ewing

[Kori Ellis]

22. Parker

2006-07 (projected) .529 .701 22.7 4.0 6.7 --- --- 11.7 26.5 6.0 21.22

2005-06 season: One way to make a player look way better than he really is to take his two or three best statistical categories, make an arbitrary cutoff point just below that player's performance, and then list all the players who exceed that cutoff. For example, only three players in history have averaged 18.0 points, 5.5 assists and shot 54.0 percent or better in a season, as Parker did last season. The other two? Wilt Chamberlian and Magic Johnson.

Obviously, he's not in the class of those other two players, but still, what Parker did last year was fairly remarkable. His 54.8 percent shooting mark was the best by a point guard in 15 years, and the best ever by a point guard with at least 1,000 field-goal attempts.

The Spurs have invested a lot of time in rebuilding Parker's jumper, which was a flat-footed shot-put when he entered the league but now looks more like a real jump shot. Nonetheless, the real catalyst behind Parker's season was not an improvement in the jumper, but rather his decision to abandon it entirely.

Parker attempted only 36 3-point shots after trying 156 the year before, and instead focused on using his superior quickness to blow by opposing defenders. For a time he led the league in points in the paint -- an amazing accomplishment for a guard -- and finished among the leaders in that category thanks to all the driving lay-ups he produced.

Despite the high shooting percentage, Parker's True Shooting Percentage wasn't the best at his position -- Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups and Tyronn Lue beat him out, in each case because they were much more adept at 3-pointers. For a player who drives so much, Parker also doesn't draw as many fouls as you'd expect. His rate of 0.32 free throws per field-goal attempt was barely above the norm for point guards, and it seems he could do more to create contact on his forays to the rim.

Scouting report: Parker is a deadly weapon on pick-and-roll plays because of his quickness. Defenders try to go under the screen and force Parker to shoot a jumper, but he's so fast that he often can beat defenders to the other side and go in for a lay-up. He also has a superb teardrop shot -- perhaps the best in the game -- which he uses to great effect when he can't get all the way to the rim. Unlike his jumper, Parker has always shot the teardrop with plenty of arc, and he releases it very fast. He also has a shot-fake move on the teardrop that he pulls out occasionally to keep defenders honest.

Parker looks to score rather than pass and his Assist Ratios have never been anything to write home about. Additionally, his Turnover Ratio was a bit high for the position and was his worst mark as a pro. But Parker finally licked the maddening game-to-game inconsistency that plagued him early in his career. He had only six single-figure scoring games all year, and just one in the playoffs.

Defensively, Parker is rather underrated. Between his outstanding quickness and his now considerable experience, he's become one of the better defenders at his position.

2006-07 outlook: Parker will look to build on his breakout season, and since he's only 24, he figures to have plenty of upside left. That's particularly true if the Spurs can turn his jumper into a more consistent weapon. His shooting percentage should take a dip from the historic levels of 2005-06, simply because nobody shoots that well year after year, but the other facets of his game seem likely to continue progressing. If so, he can look forward to a return trip to the All-Star Game.

Most similar at age: Stephon Marbury

[Kori Ellis]

24. Ginobili

2006-07 (projected) .450 .766 20.5 5.2 5.0 --- --- 10.9 22.9 7.8 20.93

2005-06 season: Ginobili's playing style may have caught up with him last season. Driving to the hoop with reckless abandon and creating contact wherever possible, Ginobili always seemed to be a ticking time bomb for injuries, though but he stayed relatively healthy in his first three NBA seasons. Last year, he missed 17 games with a variety of injuries to his legs, feet and ankles, and bowed out after playing fewer than 20 minutes in five others.

Amazingly, the injuries didn't seem to affect Ginobili one iota on the court. His production in every category was virtually identical to what he had done the year before, including the exact same scoring rate and PER. He didn't pull back any on the contact either -- his 0.54 free-throws per field-goal attempt ranked third among shooting guards, and as a result his True Shooting Percentage ranked second.

Scouting report: Ginobili doesn't shoot often, but he's highly efficient when he does because he is so good at drawing fouls. He changes direction at sharper angles than anyone else in the game, continually surprising defenders with his sudden slashes. He also plays with incredible flair, mixing in wrap-around-the-back moves and half-court bounce passes. That audacious play used to have the drawback of turnovers, but Ginobili cut his Turnover Ratio for the third time in four years and bettered the league average in that category last season.

Defensively, Ginobili is an underrated performer with great anticipation, although his steals totals are kept down a bit by the Spurs' stay-at-home philosophy. He's particularly adept at deflecting passes thrown by the man he's guarding. However, bigger guards can have their way with him inside -- witness the destruction Bonzi Wells wrought on San Antonio in the opening round of the playoffs.

Ginobili doesn't shoot from outside often, but has improved his 3-point percentage every year in the league and made 38.2 percent a year ago. His form is hardly textbook -- he leans to the right while he shoots and has a slow windup -- but because he rarely forces it his percentages are solid.

2006-07 outlook: Here's an interesting fact -- Ginobili has never averaged 30 minutes a game for a season. The Spurs have always limited his playing time so as to keep him fresh for the bruising, high-energy playing style he prefers. Last year, he didn't play more than 35 minutes in a regulation game all season.

Because of that, Ginobili's per-game numbers will never fly off the page. Instead, the numbers to pay attention to are his 40-minutes averages of 21.6 points, 5.2 assists and 5.1 rebounds. He should come close to hitting those marks again this season, and the hope is that the limited minutes keep him fresh for the playoffs -- when the Spurs really need him to play 35 or 40 minutes a night.

With all the pounding he takes, the question is whether he can stay in one piece for that long, and if he does whether he'll still be quite so productive.

Most similar at age: Eddie Jones

[Trainwreck2100]

Most similar at age: Patrick Ewing


Except at this age Pat had a remarkable 0 titles.

[Kori Ellis]

42. Butler

SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER

2006-07 (projected) .549 .780 18.5 11.3 1.7 --- --- 17.5 19.2 17.2 18.26

2005-06 season: Butler was the Knicks' third-string center, but he was one of the team's most productive big men and should have played much more than he did. He wasn't expected to play a big role after joining the Knicks late in 2004-05, but Larry Brown's lineup-du-jour system ensured that everyone would get a chance, and Butler made the most of his. He shot 54.4% from the floor and had the eighth-best TS% among centers, while his 40-minute scoring and rebound rates (15.5 and 9.9) were solid.

The only negative for Butler was his 18.5 Turnover Ratio, which ranked in the bottom 10 among centers. He has to improve his ability to control the ball before he goes up for shot, and like almost all young big men has to learn how to set screens without moving.

Scouting report: At 6-10, 260 pounds, Butler is a widebody who can get position in the paint and his a nice touch around the basket. He's an instinctive scorer and despite his girth also proved a decent shot-blocker. Nonetheless, Butler's conditioning is a real worry. He looked like he was carrying an extra tire last season and needs to get his weight under control.

Butler's defense isn't as far along as his offense. He's a step slow and tends to resort to fouling to make up for it, averaging more than a foul every seven minutes last season. And although he blocked some shots and rebounded well, Butler's movement on defense left a lot to be desired. Again, conditioning was part of the problem.

2006-07 outlook: Butler signed a three-year offer sheet with San Antonio, and the Knicks declined to match it so they could spend four times as much money on Jared Jeffries. Of all the inane moves that Isiah Thomas has made, this one ranks right near the top. The Knicks had absolutely no idea what they had in Butler, envisioning him as their third-string center (you know, because Jerome James will turn the corner any day now) and thus not wanting to spend anything to keep him.

For the Spurs to get a young player of this quality this cheaply was highway robbery; all they were missing was the ski masks. Players of this size who can score at such a young age have an overwhelming track record of success. Butler's five most similar players at the same age are Shawn Kemp, Eddy Curry, Jermaine O'Neal, Carlos Boozer and Chris Webber. His projected stats for next year are monstrous --18.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per 40 minutes, 54.9% from the floor, and an 18.41 PER. He still needs to cut his foul rate and his calorie count, but he's been working out all summer in San Antonio and I expect him to be a revelation this season as the Spurs' starting center.

Most similar at age: Shawn Kemp

[sa_butta]

Beno at 98.

[Mr. Body]

Those are some gaudy expectations for Butler. If he played for a terrible team this year, he could get close, but he'll be held back on the Spurs so he can learn it the right way. Nothing wrong with that.

[Kori Ellis]

Those are some gaudy expectations for Butler. If he played for a terrible team this year, he could get close, but he'll be held back on the Spurs so he can learn it the right way. Nothing wrong with that.

You don't think he'd average 9 and 6 in 20 minutes a game?

(I'm not saying he'll even get 20 mpg)

[101A]

Most similar at age: Shawn Kemp


Don't.


Jinx.


It.

[cheguevara]

Most similar at age: Stephon Marbury

:(

[Mr. Body]

You don't think he'd average 9 and 6 in 20 minutes a game?

(I'm not saying he'll even get 20 mpg)

Yes. I wasn't thinking per/40.

I fully think he can do 9 and 6.

And by the year, I hope he can do 20 mpg. That would be a huge help. He has some devastating potential, even in spurts. :ihit

[pizzalover]

This is one of the worst player rating lists I have seen. This thing doesnt even derserve a link, to who ever linked this piece of shit.

edit: They have under postions chris paul #1 and steve nash #3 for point guards, what the fuck? The only thing they got close to right was the SG's.

[Mr. Body]

This is one of the worst player rating lists I have seen. This thing doesnt even derserve a link, to who ever linked this piece of shit.

It's purely statistical, unlike pizza.

[cheguevara]

This is one of the worst player rating lists I have seen. This thing doesnt even derserve a link, to who ever linked this piece of shit.

edit: They have under postions chris paul #1 and steve nash #3 for point guards, what the fuck? The only thing they got close to right was the SG's.

no Kings on top 50 huh?

[pizzalover]

It's purely statistical, unlike pizza.
I hate statistical based player ratings, it doesnt work. of course if you think under powerforwards that
4. Pau Gasol, MEM
5. Elton Brand, LAC
6. Shawn Marion, PHO
7. Tim Duncan, SA

does anyone belive that?

[ShoogarBear]

22. Parker

His 54.8 percent shooting mark was the best by a point guard in 15 years, and the best ever by a point guard with at least 1,000 field-goal attempts.

I'm ususally dismissive of highly arbitrary stats, but hokey smokes.


For a player who drives so much, Parker also doesn't draw as many fouls as you'd expect. His rate of 0.32 free throws per field-goal attempt was barely above the norm for point guards, and it seems he could do more to create contact on his forays to the rim.

Parker draws plenty of contact. It's BS in the era of Cuban Ball that he doesn't get more calls. I lost count of the number of times he got knocked to the floor without a call.


Stephon Marbury:wtf


Most similar at age: Patrick Ewing :wtf :wtf

[pizzalover]

no Kings on top 50 huh?
edit:
I take back what I said. I overreacted a little bit. This is just statistics and player efficiency.

[Kori Ellis]

If they would have called this a fantasy power rating I would be fine with it, but they dont.

Hollinger's PER ratings are pretty well known. But they are just statistical ratings, so don't think of them as anything more than that. Everyone knows Pau Gasol isn't the top PF in the league.

[RC's Boss]

I hate statistical based player ratings, it doesnt work. of course if you think under powerforwards that
4. Pau Gasol, MEM
5. Elton Brand, LAC
6. Shawn Marion, PHO
7. Tim Duncan, SA

does anyone belive that?
Nope.... but like kori said they are just stats. Look how low Artest is and he's a monster on the court. I'm sure per doesn't factor into MVP voting unless the writers are smoking peace pipes :smokin ... Hollinger is my guy this year, he's on the Spurs jockstrap. We OWN him :flag: However, the projections didn't see him in the playoffs. Duncan's domination of Dallas showed that he's still an MVP-caliber player when healthy, and if he can stay at that level for a good chunk of 2006-07 the Spurs should trample the rest of the league.

[RC's Boss]

i need a diaper

[freemeat]

Some pretty strong praise for Butler...

[Mr. Body]

The player Elson is listed as most resembling?

Cherokee Parks

:oops :lol :drunk :madrun :nope :bang :ihit

[boutons_]

I've already forgotten about Elson. Really weird why the Spurs ever had any interest in this guy. He's not NBA, he should go play in Europe, if he can.

[PlaneFast]

Hollinger's PER ratings are pretty well known. But they are just statistical ratings, so don't think of them as anything more than that. Everyone knows Pau Gasol isn't the top PF in the league.

Yep. As some coach [Pop?] said, there's a reason some players don't play 40 minutes.

PER is about stats, which don't lie, but tend to mislead.

I'm curious about Beno's description [Kori?]. He's rated as the 23rd best PG. Jacque Vaughn is rated 71st out of 74 point guards. According to his PER, he's not the savior at backup pg that some would hope.

[ShoogarBear]

Show us where anyone said Vaughn is a savior.

[PlaneFast]

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45991&highlight=vaughn

Savior's a bit strong [who doesn't go over the top on this forum?], but several people believed that he'd be a good backup who would play ahead of Beno. Being the 4th worst pg in the league, by PER, would seem to question those beliefs. I'd be interested in seeing who he's similar to at this point in his career.

[Obstructed_View]

If Beno gets beat out for minutes by the 4th worst PG, it's on nobody else but him.

[mathbzh]

Tim #7 PF... That statement alone show how useless PER ranking is.

Just one more thing:
Amare #2???? Nobody knows if someday the old Amare will be back. You can't use statistical tools when your sample is too small. How many allstar PF, rulling by their athletism and comming back from 2 knees injuries, statistics did Hollinger used?
IMO Amare PER is almost unpredictable. His first preseason games does not show him as a potential #2 PF (at least in 2006-2007).

[Dirk41MVP]

We only have one in the top 39 and we're still gonna whoop yo' a$$...again :lol

[shaggy17]

Yeah well at least the Mavs have lost in the Finals Spurs fans! Has your team lost in the Finals before?? No so shut the fuck up! This is one bragging right that you can NEVER EVER take from me or any other Mavs fan! Until you guys experience the effects of being eliminated on the grandest stages of them all dont even talk!

Fixed :)

[RC's Boss]

We only have one in the top 39 and we're still gonna whoop yo' a$$...again :lol
Barely winning is hardly whooping ass..... ASS!

[PlaneFast]

Barely winning is hardly whooping ass..... ASS!

fun

[Dirk41MVP]

last time I checked, making it to the finals is better than getting eliminated in the 2nd round... but that's just me. Who did you beat ? the suckramento queens ? who else ?... yeah

[Obstructed_View]

last time I checked, making it to the finals is better than getting eliminated in the 2nd round... but that's just me. Who did you beat ? the suckramento queens ? who else ?... yeah
Yay for second place. You should be really proud. That's why you see so many posts from Spurs fans saying "I'm so happy we at least made it to the conference semis. We're better than Memphis."

[shaggy17]

last time I checked, making it to the finals is better than getting eliminated in the 2nd round... but that's just me. Who did you beat ? the suckramento queens ? who else ?... yeah

Last time I checked the last 3 times we made the finals, we got the job done. You cant say the same thing about your squad as you still remain the only NBA Texas team without a championship. You can use last year all you want to brag about going to the finals but it doesnt change the fact that your still still doesnt have an O'Brien trophy! Plus I would rather lose in round 2 then lose in the finals because it is alot less painful. But what would I know about my team losing in the finals :)

[ShoogarBear]

Plus I would rather lose in round 2 then lose in the finals because it is alot less painful. But what would I know about my team losing in the finals :)You are in no position to say that.

Only Mav Fan can give an accurate evaluation about which round it's best to lose in.

[z0sa]

You are in no position to say that.

Only Mav Fan can give an accurate evaluation about which round it's best to lose in.

:lol