Jackie Butler is #6 Center - John Hollinger

[AFBlue]

Just thought I'd post this ESPN Insider Story. Hollinger lists Jackie Butler as the 6th best Center in the NBA according to his 06/07 projections. He's ahead of Bogut, Curry, Wallace, Miller, and a few more notables. Pretty lofty expectations...you think he's right?


2005-06 season: Butler was the Knicks' third-string center, but he was one of the team's most productive big men and should have played much more than he did. He wasn't expected to play a big role after joining the Knicks late in 2004-05, but Larry Brown's lineup-du-jour system ensured that everyone would get a chance, and Butler made the most of his. He shot 54.4% from the floor and had the eighth-best TS% among centers, while his 40-minute scoring and rebound rates (15.5 and 9.9) were solid.



The only negative for Butler was his 18.5 Turnover Ratio, which ranked in the bottom 10 among centers. He has to improve his ability to control the ball before he goes up for shot, and like almost all young big men has to learn how to set screens without moving.



Scouting report: At 6-10, 260 pounds, Butler is a widebody who can get position in the paint and his a nice touch around the basket. He's an instinctive scorer and despite his girth also proved a decent shot-blocker. Nonetheless, Butler's conditioning is a real worry. He looked like he was carrying an extra tire last season and needs to get his weight under control.



Butler's defense isn't as far along as his offense. He's a step slow and tends to resort to fouling to make up for it, averaging more than a foul every seven minutes last season. And although he blocked some shots and rebounded well, Butler's movement on defense left a lot to be desired. Again, conditioning was part of the problem.



2006-07 outlook: Butler signed a three-year offer sheet with San Antonio, and the Knicks declined to match it so they could spend four times as much money on Jared Jeffries. Of all the inane moves that Isiah Thomas has made, this one ranks right near the top. The Knicks had absolutely no idea what they had in Butler, envisioning him as their third-string center (you know, because Jerome James will turn the corner any day now) and thus not wanting to spend anything to keep him.



For the Spurs to get a young player of this quality this cheaply was highway robbery; all they were missing was the ski masks. Players of this size who can score at such a young age have an overwhelming track record of success. Butler's five most similar players at the same age are Shawn Kemp, Eddy Curry, Jermaine O'Neal, Carlos Boozer and Chris Webber. His projected stats for next year are monstrous --18.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per 40 minutes, 54.9% from the floor, and an 18.41 PER. He still needs to cut his foul rate and his calorie count, but he's been working out all summer in San Antonio and I expect him to be a revelation this season as the Spurs' starting center.




Most similar at age: Shawn Kemp

[AFBlue]

Here's the list of top 15...


1. Shaquille O'Neal, MIA
2005-06 season: Shaq came to Miami with the idea of leading the Heat to the championship, and seemed a little taken aback that he was essentially an innocent bystander while Dwyane Wade rode to... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
23.29
League Avg: +8.29
2005-06 PER: 24.47

2. Yao Ming, HOU
2005-06 season: Yo, Shaq -- pass the torch over here, buddy. Between a foot infection and a broken toe, Yao missed 25 games last year, but he played so well when he was in the lineup that there... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
22.00
League Avg: +7.00
2005-06 PER: 25.78

3. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, CLE
2005-06 season: The 7-3 giant re-signed with Cleveland as a free agent and delivered a strong offensive season before stagnating in the playoffs. His per-game averages took a hit because the Cavs... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
20.65
League Avg: +5.65
2005-06 PER: 21.98

4. Jermaine O'Neal, IND
2005-06 season: O'Neal was one of the best players in the East three years ago, but his star has faded a bit recently thanks to frequent injuries and reduced efficiency in the post. O'Neal missed... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
20.31
League Avg: +5.31
2005-06 PER: 20.50

5. Marcus Camby, DEN
2005-06 season: Most injury-prone players get worn down by all the breaks and sprains, and after a few years their effectiveness diminishes sharply. Camby is unusual in that he'll miss games with... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
19.00
League Avg: +4.00
2005-06 PER: 20.00

6. Jackie Butler, SA
2005-06 season: Butler was the Knicks' third-string center, but he was one of the team's most productive big men and should have played much more than he did. He wasn't expected to play a big role... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
18.26
League Avg: +3.26
2005-06 PER: 14.79

7. Andrew Bogut, MIL
2005-06 season: The first overall pick in the draft, Milwaukee played Bogut out of position but he still put together a solid rookie campaign. The preseason trade for Jamaal Magloire forced the... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
18.08
League Avg: +3.08
2005-06 PER: 15.21

8. Mehmet Okur, UTA
2005-06 season: Okur had the best season of his career in 2005-06 and even earned some All-Star consideration, taking over as Utah's go-to offensive player while Carlos Boozer was out. Much of the... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
18.01
League Avg: +3.01
2005-06 PER: 19.08

9. Eddy Curry, NY
2005-06 season: The Knicks centered much of their high hopes for the season around their unrealistic hopes for Curry, making a crazy bet by dealing an unprotected lottery pick to Chicago as part... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
17.82
League Avg: +2.82
2005-06 PER: 17.06

10. Dan Gadzuric, MIL
2005-06 season: Gadzuric signed a six-year, $36 million deal to stay with the Bucks in the offseason but almost immediately became lost in Milwaukee's center rotation. With Jamaal Magloire and... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
17.02
League Avg: +2.02
2005-06 PER: 17.28

11. Ben Wallace, CHI
2005-06 season: Big Ben had another amazing season at the defensive end, becoming the first player in history to record 100 blocks and 100 steals in six straight seasons. He was the only player... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
16.99
League Avg: +1.99
2005-06 PER: 17.54

12. Darko Milicic, ORL
2005-06 season: The Pistons swore they'd find minutes for Darko now that Larry Brown was gone ... only they didn't. Milicic played only 140 minutes for Detroit, mostly in garbage time, so Detroit... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
16.72
League Avg: +1.72
2005-06 PER: 15.21

13. Brad Miller, SAC
2005-06 season: Miller turned 30 toward the end of the season, and it appears he's starting to show his age. After three seasons at a near All-Star level, Miller's performance declined in nearly... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
16.50
League Avg: +1.50
2005-06 PER: 17.52

14. Jake Tsakalidis, MEM
2005-06 season: Somebody wanna tell me where that came from? A forgotten man who played just 279 minutes in his first season in Memphis, Tsakalidis took over the starting center spot late... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
16.12
League Avg: +1.12
2005-06 PER: 17.35

15. Nene Hilario, DEN
2005-06 season: Nene had a great preseason for the Nuggets and the club was looking forward to a breakout year, but instead they got a different kind of break. Nene blew out his knee two minutes... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
15.65
League Avg: +0.65
2005-06 PER: -54.54

[ShoogarBear]

Ranking Butler #6 is insane. There's a huge logical flaw in solely using per 48 minute stats as a basis of comparison.

[Mr. Body]

He is ranking them purely by PER (efficiency). He makes no other claim.

[ChumpDumper]

Jackie needs an asterisk for playing only 13mpg, but the numbers hint at his potential.

[T Park]

Eh.

Look at whos behind him.

Not exactly the all start centers list.


Not correct maybe, but not a TOTAL reach.

[polandprzem]

Jesus, and the spurs are nba champs 2007?

Seeya later

[ChumpDumper]

Jesus is always a champion, you commie bastid.

[ShoogarBear]

I probably overstated Hollinger's point, and yes I agree that it speaks to potential. But still, is there anyone here who wouldn't take either Wallace or Bogut for Butler straight up? I think it's unlikely that Butler is EVER better than Bogut.

Shoot, I'd even take Darko for Butler straight up.

[ChumpDumper]

True, Okur would kick ass on this team, too.

[ShoogarBear]

What Hollinger needs to do is publish his previous projected vs. actual PER for the past several years. If he has shown any reasonable correlation over the years, then I'd be willing to give him more credibility.

[leemajors]

What Hollinger needs to do is publish his previous projected vs. actual PER for the past several years. If he has shown any reasonable correlation over the years, then I'd be willing to give him more credibility.

i think he's fairly open to suggestion - tried emailing him about it?

[timvp]

Hollinger is sounding like the pissed Knicks fan that he is. The more minutes Butler gets, the more his stats will start to flatten out. Especially since on the Spurs, not even David Robinson was allowed much of a chance on the low block next to Tim Duncan.

Butler will be a good player but #6 in any category is high right now.

[1Parker1]

Jermaine Oneal at #4? Since when is he considered a Center?

[sa_butta]

Jermaine Oneal at #4? Since when is he considered a Center?He is listed as F/C.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Look at whos behind him.

Not exactly the all start centers list.


Not correct maybe, but not a TOTAL reach.

Sincerely, Ben Wallace, A. Bogut.

[mrose31]

There are so many things wrong with these ratings its not even funny. Still think we could call up the Magic and trade Butler (18.26)for D. Howard (17.40). Worth a shot isn't it?

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

He isn't the 6th best centre in the league right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's close to that in 2 years time. The kid has gifts, and all he needs is to keep his weight down and learn from Timmy and Rob.

By the end of the season he'll be playing at least half a game, starting or not.

[ABDENOUR POWER]

I don't mean to be a Spurs hater..... but thats bullshit.

[ambchang]

I don't mean to be a Spurs hater..... but thats bullshit.
You're not, because it would be a big time homer to agree that Butler is > Wallace, Bogut, Darko, Howard, and a whole bunch of other centres last year or next.

[ploto]

Butler will be a good player but #6 in any category is high right now.
He's the #6 big man on the Spurs right now-- behind Tim, Fabricio, Rob, Francisco, and Matt. :lol

[spurs=bling]

someone was high and wasted when they wrote that article....

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

Even if that is right, what are the chances he plays 40 minutes consistently EVER?

[Fillmoe]

way too funny...... is this dude really serious?

[gmanrulz]

damn with those kinda stats next season he shouldve been ranked higher than 6th

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Suggesting that Hollinger is an idiot is outta line. C'mon guys, take a look at the rankings for a minute. The article is based on Hollinger's projected PER for each player for this season. Butler is an outlier because he was very productive when he played last year, but he only played 13mins per game.

See, read the article and it makes some kind of sense, even though we all know that Butler is not the 6th best centre in the league, and because Pop brings young guys along slowly, will have no chance to live up to this.

[T-Pain]

Ranking Butler #6 is insane. There's a huge logical flaw in solely using per 48 minute stats as a basis of comparison.
i know man, hes ranked ahead of ben wallace

[JamStone]

I think if it suggests anything, it's that NBA centers SUCK.

[mavs>spurs2]

All the good big men are Power Forwards anyways. Shaq is the last of a dying breed....

[SequSpur]

Can somebody relay this shit to Pop???, because Butler is probably going to be the Ballboy of the game or some shit like that.

[Rynospursfan]

I guess the next time I can't read a "insider" article, I just won't worry about it. Probably crap anyways.

[T-Pain]

yeah i dont think john hollinger knows alot of NBA basketball, he sounds like hes a newbie to journalism or somethin

[Texas_Ranger]

Big Ben 11th. :lol :lol. This list sucks

Where s Rasho?

[AFBlue]

John Hollinger uses numerical data to back up his claims, so he's at least "credible", but these are still projections, based partly on his "gut" feeling about a player's potential and ability, so you should still be wary of it. I like the one person's suggestion to analyze his past projections and see how they panned out for specific players. Unfortunately, I don't have the time to do the research nor would I take the time even if I did. I just wanted to post and get your thoughts on the initial projection.

Truthfully, I think the 18pts and 11 rebounds per 40 MINUTES may not be that far off. If the kid only averages 10 minutes a game, that is less than 5 pts and 3 reb per game. With a crowded, more experienced frontcourt to take minutes away from him he'll likely stay in the 10-15 minute range, but with his proven ability to score in short minutes I think he might meet those expectations.

For the future, I hope he's a guy that can give 25-30 minutes and average 15/7. We'll see....

[leemajors]

yeah i dont think john hollinger knows alot of NBA basketball, he sounds like hes a newbie to journalism or somethin

yeah he hasn't had a column breaking down stats for a couple years, what a newb.

[AFBlue]

It should also be noted that John Hollinger's PER is based on several different variables. That is why guys like Ben Wallace and Brad Miller are ranked behind Butler. Their dominance, whether it be rebounding/shotblocking or scoring points, is concentrated on one or two different categories. As good as Ben Wallace is, he gives a team almost nothing on the offensive end.

I agree with most posters that say Butler is ranked too high relative to other Centers, but the individual projections for Butler are not wrong in my opinion.

[AFBlue]

Hollinger held an ESPN chat yesterday to answer some critics, etc. Here are his comments on the rating system, Jackie Butler, and even Tony Parker. He seems to have clarified his statements a bit, and I was even wrong about his "subjectivity"....apparently projections are based on production changes of similar historical players (ref. Shawn Kemp).



Jeremy Vineland NJ: I do not see how you can rate Chris Paul higher than Allen Iverson, I understand he had a spectacular rookie season but to call him better than AI so soon, a bit crazy.

John Hollinger: I'm getting a lot of question along the lines of "how do you rate so-and-so ahead of so-and-so", so I think it's time to backtrack here.

John Hollinger: What you're seeing in the ratings are the projection for his Player Efficiency Rating for this season. PER, as I've discussed in here many teams, is a summary of a player's per-minute statistical effectiveness, but that still leaves some things out -- defense, durability, etc.

John Hollinger: A lot of people are looking at this like I'm saying Player X is better than Player Y, which isn't necessarily the case. That said, in the particular example you cited, it would not shock me at all if Paul outperformed Iverson this year.

John Hollinger: There is zero subjectivity in the projections -- it's built entirely off of similarity scores with other players of the same age, and then projecting future results based on what happend to those other similar players.


Henry (NY): While I liked Jackie Butler last year, is he really comparable to Shawn Kemp at this point in his career? How do you see him contributing this year once he gets healthy?

John Hollinger: He's a talented, offense-minded 6-10 guy with a weight problem who didn't go to college. Sounds a lot like Shawn Kemp to me. I realize the comparison isn't perfect, but no comparison between players ever is. Unless they're both named "Van Arsdale" that is.

As for Butler's immediate prospects, as I mentioned from France the Spurs really want him to get more in tune with that they're asking of him on D before he's going to play a lot of minutes. He probably won't play much in the early part of the year, and Fabricio Oberto may end up starting.
Thaddeus(Cape Cod, MA): I don't understand how you some of the PER's moved up or down so drastically. Like Butler, Howard, Jefferson, etc. . . Are these all based on other players or is there some subjectivity?

Patrick (St. Petersburg, FL): Shawn Kemp had a weight problem when he was young?

John Hollinger: That's kind of what I meant when I said the comparison isn't perfect. Also, Jackie doesn't have quite the same hops, etc.

casey tulsa oklahoma: when your own ratings came out...what player(s) suprised you being so high, and which player(s) seemed underrated? Based on your own opinion...

John Hollinger: Andrew Bogut's projection was much more optimistic than I would have guessed, as was Jackie Butler's. On the surprised-how-low front, I would say Ron Artest and Lamar Odom.

mark, philippines: do you think tony parker's jumpshot has improved enough to where defense's would respect it and not just clog the lanes?

John Hollinger: His J looked a little smoother in France, but if I'm guarding him I still make him prove it to me from out there before I let him blow by me for lay-ups.

[Mr. Body]

Coaches and GMs likely look at stats like these all the time.

[nkdlunch]

this is fresh proof that the PER stats don't mean shit

[ShoogarBear]

I like the one person's suggestion to analyze his past projections and see how they panned out for specific players. Unfortunately, I don't have the time to do the research nor would I take the time even if I did.
Eh, I'd probably be motivated to do it if someone had a readily available source of the data (projected and actual PERs). I'm not inclined to google all over the place to get the numbers.

[polandprzem]

More controversy the writer brings the beter he is.

[mathbzh]

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Parker1




Jermaine Oneal at #4? Since when is he considered a Center?


He is listed as F/C.

So where are TD (PER 23.4), Amare (PER 18 in 3 games),... on that list (also listed as F/C)?
Where is Diaw (PER 17.5) who started games as center?

To have a consistent ranking I had a look to true centers (listed 'C') last season PER ranking. Here is THE list :spin

1 Yao Ming 25,9
2 Shaquille O'Neal 24,7
3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas 22,1
4 Marcus Camby 20,1
5 Alonzo Mourning 19,7
6 Mehmet Okur 19,1
7 Channing Frye 18,2
8 Brad Miller 17,6
9 Dan Gadzuric 17,4
10 Jake Tsakalidis 17,4
11 Eddy Curry 17,2
12 Martynas Andriuskevicius 15,7
13 Primoz Brezec 15,4
14 Andrew Bogut 15,3
15 Joel Przybilla 15,3
16 Jeff Foster 15,2
17 Chris Kaman 15,2
18 Nazr Mohammed 15,2
19 Samuel Dalembert 14,4
20 Brendan Haywood 13,8
21 Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 13,6
22 Dikembe Mutombo 12,9
23 Robert Swift 12,8
24 Tyson Chandler 12,3

hmmm.... this PER ranking seems a little bit stupid.

Tomorrow, I'll have a look to FC :wakeup

[jman3000]

doesn't he know that Dampier is the second best center in the league?

[bdictjames]

doesn't he know that Dampier is the second best center in the league?
:lol

[Dirk41MVP]

PER stats are USELESS.... Rafael Araujo would grab 20 rebounds and dish out 10 assists in 40 minutes per game according to that stat, of course he would never do that (random example)

Butler is never going to play 40 minutes a game as a spur, most likely not even 30 and if he does, he won't be jacking up enough shots to score that many points when you have tim ducan, the french fag and the manu flop playing next to him.

I guess DJ Mbenga will be an All-Star this year then with his PER stats...

[Mr. Body]

I guess DJ Mbenga will be an All-Star this year then with his PER stats...

Not with him hanging off your weenie rod. :ihit

[Kori Ellis]

PER stats are USELESS.... Rafael Araujo would grab 20 rebounds and dish out 10 assists in 40 minutes per game according to that stat, of course he would never do that (random example)

Butler is never going to play 40 minutes a game as a spur, most likely not even 30 and if he does, he won't be jacking up enough shots to score that many points when you have tim ducan, the french fag and the manu flop playing next to him.

I guess DJ Mbenga will be an All-Star this year then with his PER stats...

I asked you once to stop using the word "fag" so much in your posts.
This is my last request.

[ShoogarBear]

We need a vBookie on this . . .

[Dirk41MVP]

I asked you once to stop using the word "fag" so much in your posts.
This is my last request.

I don't know what you're talking about... but is "gai" better for ya ?

[Kori Ellis]

I don't know what you're talking about... but is "gai" better for ya ?

No. Try to expand your vocabulary beyond homosexual slurs.

[Dirk41MVP]

call it what you want, it's just a word. Some things just can't be described by other than what they are... you know, adjectives as well as nouns are used in everyday conversation and in english grammar. I don't get what's the biggie

[Mr. Body]

call it what you want, it's just a word. Some things just can't be described by other than what they are... you know, adjectives as well as nouns are used in everyday conversation and in english grammar. I don't get what's the biggie

Your mom likes to suck elephant cock. I know, because your dad called me about it. He's really impressed and wants to tell the world. He's considering a "Dirk41MVP's Mom's Gone Wild!" tape, so she doesn't have to prostitute herself anymore, but who wants to take away a hobby? I hear she's considering taking the doing-an-elephant thing on the road. More power to her, I say. Hopefully she can withstand the pain and disgrace, but hey, it's your dirty little family, and I can only imagine what kind of filthy pachyderms are in your family's legacy.

Only words.

[Dirk41MVP]

Your mom likes to suck elephant cock. I know, because your dad called me about it. He's really impressed and wants to tell the world. He's considering a "Dirk41MVP's Mom's Gone Wild!" tape, so she doesn't have to prostitute herself anymore, but who wants to take away a hobby? I hear she's considering taking the doing-an-elephant thing on the road. More power to her, I say. Hopefully she can withstand the pain and disgrace, but hey, it's your dirty little family, and I can only imagine what kind of filthy pachyderms are in your family's legacy.

Only words.


hahah that made me laugh, considering my name is a) not Dirk41MVP as any person with a slight bit of intelligence would know (come on you could at least change the name to make it more real) and b) MY words, or "slurs" w/e you want to call them, were not aimed at any member of this board, but to the homosexual player.

I guess if you feel so much love for somebody you've never met and want to defend him in a forum against people you haven't even seen in your life, YOU must be the one sucking somebody else's cock, besides how did this thread change from nba's centers to elephant cocks ??, wonder what's on your mind... you're right though,

Only words

oh and I guess people around here have rules that don't seem to be rules..:

"Posts at SpursTalk.com message boards may contain adult language."
"FullSportPress.com content is exclusively for entertainment purposes only."

... got them officially from your site and haven't broken either one. You know, it would be useful to read your own forum and not have a fan from another team/forum tell you the rules/guidelines to abide by when visiting your own damn website... amazing

[Bruno]

Eh, I'd probably be motivated to do it if someone had a readily available source of the data (projected and actual PERs). I'm not inclined to google all over the place to get the numbers.

You can find PER on http://www.basketball-reference.com

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=546520&postcount=1

Looking into the crystal ball, we shouldn't expect the top 10 to change much. Again, KG is on top:

In blue : PER: Projected 2005-06 Top 10
In red : real PER
Kevin Garnett, Minnesota 26.39 26.8
Tim Duncan, San Antonio 25.12 23.1
Shaquille O'Neal, Miami 24.24 24.4
LeBron James, Cleveland 24.09 28.1
Yao Ming, Houston 24.05 25.7
Tracy McGrady, Houston 24.03 22.0
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas 23.52 28.1
Amare Stoudemire, Phoenix 23.51 17.8
Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers 22.46 28.0
Dwyane Wade, Miami 22.39 27.6

All in all he is quite wrong.

[Brutalis]

This guy has to be drunk 24-7.

[Obstructed_View]

oh and I guess people around here have rules that don't seem to be rules..:

"Posts at SpursTalk.com message boards may contain adult language."
"FullSportPress.com content is exclusively for entertainment purposes only."

... got them officially from your site and haven't broken either one. You know, it would be useful to read your own forum and not have a fan from another team/forum tell you the rules/guidelines to abide by when visiting your own damn website... amazing

Visitors to FullSportPress.com forum message boards are not permitted to post any material which:
• Threatens or abuses another user or FullSportPress.com ownership or management in any way.
• Violates the privacy or rights of another user.
• Contains defamatory remarks related to race, religion, etc.
Hey, stupid. If a moderator thinks that the "etc." refers to sexual orientation, and warns you, you need to pay attention. I'd prefer you don't, because I'd like to see your stupid no-basketball knowing troll ass banned from here. Knock it the fuck off or you will be made to go away.

Idiot.

[Kori Ellis]

oh and I guess people around here have rules that don't seem to be rules..:

"Posts at SpursTalk.com message boards may contain adult language."
"FullSportPress.com content is exclusively for entertainment purposes only."

... got them officially from your site and haven't broken either one. You know, it would be useful to read your own forum and not have a fan from another team/forum tell you the rules/guidelines to abide by when visiting your own damn website... amazing


Basically the deal is that I asked you to stop with the homosexual slurs twice. End of story.

If you want to continue this conversation, you can do it with me via private message. It's over in this thread.

(And I don't need another Spurs fan or other poster chiming in on this.)

Back to the topic.

Jackie Butler apparently is ranked number six because he's fat like Shawn Kemp :drunk

I don't care about these PER stats much because I can watch basketball and decide who I think is a better player. But as Hollinger explained himself in his chat, he's not saying that Gasol is better than Duncan or Paul is better than AI. He's just using his formula and ranking the results. I can find his rankings useful to some extent, just like every other rankings. But obviously it's not an end all to anything. GM's/coaching staffs look at his rankings (and others) so it has some value to some people that matter.

[Obstructed_View]

Sounds screwy to me. Somebody mentioned in the other thread that Amare is really high on this thing and Duncan is really low. I'd presume that Duncan's numbers from last year bring him down. Why don't Amare's? Wasn't this guy at one time claiming that this formula was the best way to rank players? It sure doesn't seem that way. It's kind of like VH1 making a list with idiotic crap at the top just to make people argue about it.

[GrandeDavid]

I just hope he's a fast learner.

[Rynospursfan]

Statistics also show that Butler would foul out before ever reaching 40 min. Last year he averaged 6.8 PF per 40.

[Mark in Austin]

PER works best when comparing players getting consistent minutes - who are in the rotation. Hollinger has a tendancy to say "it's not me, it's the numbers" when questioned, which I think is a cop-out. He's so in love with the statistical system he won't recognize the system's limitations.

A more relevant PER ranking would be to compare rotation players to each other. Using a scrub's points per minutes numbers to project what they would do over 48 minutes against real defense is just plain stupid. To then compare that player's PER to the PER of somebody who plays 35 minutes a night and expect that comparison to provide any more insight than a steaming pile of horse shit on a box score is lunacy.

[Obstructed_View]

At some point there really needs to be a "garbage time minutes" weighting here. It's fairly obvious that Bowen's numbers aren't earned the same way some of the guys ranked above him are, and it's obviously the same for Butler. Having some way to factor a player as a starter level player, a first sub level player or a scrub would probably even a lot of that out.

[ShoogarBear]

There is a way to do it, and that would be through some sort of adjusted plus/minus that factors in both the other four teammates on the court, and the five opponents.

It would essentially be calculated like a multidimensional "strength-of-schedule" plus/minus. Highly complicated, but it can probably be done and I'd be surprised if someone hasn't tried it.

This would take care of the garbage time issue indirectly. Assuming garbage time is played against lesser players, that time would be given less weight.

The nice thing about +/- is that it theoretically accounts for both offensive and defensive play, so guys like Bruce and Ben Wallace don't get short shrift.