ducks
10-27-2006, 06:39 PM
The 12 hottest questions
Paul Forrester, SI.com
1. Who will assert himself as the NBA's best player?
Nagging foot injuries aside, Tim Duncan is still the gatekeeper to the NBA title. But this mythical award isn't reserved for the league's most influential player. This is for the league's best overall talent, the player who can fill up a boxscore, hit the game-winner, ice the contest with key free throws and make the game-clinching steal. By our estimation, that leaves three legitimate candidates:
• Kobe Bryant Says a league scout, "Ask yourself the following: If you had one possession on offense to win, who would you want to have the ball? If you had to have one defensive stop to win, who would you want to cover the ball? It is hard to imagine you would want anyone else, past or present, to answer the call. He is capable of playing multiple positions and dominates both sides of the ball. We ask champions to never back down from a challenge and to step up when it's time to do so, all of which Kobe has accomplished. We recognize greatness because it thrives under pressure, so does Kobe."
• LeBron James The only player other than Oscar Robertson and Michael Jordan to average at least 30 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists for a season, James enters his fourth season as a favorite to win the MVP award this season. This for a man who wasn't legally allowed to order a drink until last December. James' skills set isn't much different than Bryant's or Dwyane Wade's, it's that his 6-foot-8, 240-pound size -- and Cleveland's need -- allows him to use those skills for longer stretches of time.
ADVERTISEMENT
"The big difference was that LeBron played so many more minutes [last season]," a front-office consultant says. "Part of that was probably because Cleveland didn't have as much additional support, so on the nights that LeBron wasn't playing that well, the Cavs lost." Last season, only Gilbert Arenas played more minutes than James, who averaged nearly two more minutes a game than Bryant.
• Dwyane Wade It's difficult to make a case against Wade after he almost single-handedly dragged the Heat out of an 0-2 hole to win the title in June. "He stepped up and did everything that had to be done," a Western conference scout says of Wade's Finals MVP performance. "Kobe Bryant's a fabulous player, but I don't like what he's done without Shaq, and LeBron hasn't shown me he's capable of leading a team to a championship, but Dwyane Wade has."
Our verdict: Wade's championship credentials have made him the fashionable pick, LeBron is an appearance in the Finals away, but when, as a scout says, "you are the player all others compare themselves to," well, Kobe can take the last shot for us, anytime.
2. Does Shaq have anything left in the tank?
After posting career-low averages during the 2005-06 regular season in points and rebounds, Shaquille O'Neal was even less productive in the Finals, averaging 13.7 points and blocking less than a shot a game. All that despite getting unprecedented rest during the regular season, as he averaged less than 31 minutes a game, a career low.
Although Wade and a spry Alonzo Mourning helped secure the Diesel's fourth title, the Heat won't be so fortunate should Shaq offer so little over the course of an entire regular season.
But Pat Riley's no fool; Shaq's minutes will likely be more limited than ever this season in hopes of guiding an aging O'Neal into shape by the postseason.
"Diesels have two tanks," a scout says. "One for long hauls and another for short (28-game playoff) runs. In the regular season, Shaq will show up for the first quarter and average 29.9 minutes per game for roughly 55-60 games. When big games appear on the schedule, so will the dominating Shaq. Nonetheless, the Heat will still clear 55 wins because of wonder boy Wade."
But this team, and its repeat chances, still revolves around the big fella.
"When you have to gameplan and he's around that basket, that really makes you make a decision," says John Hammond, VP of a Pistons team than knows all too well the dangers inherent in facing O'Neal. "He catches in the post, he kicks out, he re-posts. It's a very, very difficult matchup."
3. Will Isiah Thomas save the Knicks, or even his job?
Bad news, Knicks fans -- Isiah Thomas isn't going anywhere this season.
Tasked to make progress this year by team owner James Dolan, Isiah should have little problem coaxing this definition of dysfunction to more than the 23 wins they produced last year.
"Larry Brown just made that whole atmosphere there so poisonous that you could coach that team to more wins," a team consultant says. "Isiah doesn't have to be the greatest coach in the world, but he can probably get more wins out them by just letting the guys play and have some fun."
Thomas likely will employ a wide-open, up-tempo pace that relies heavily on the plethora of versatile guards he has acquired as the club's GM. But will it satisfy the often impatient Dolan?
Progress, of course, is a relative term. Will 25 wins keep Isiah employed? 30? No matter, because if Isiah's past work is any indication, any improvement is likely to be a modest one at best.
"I scouted Isiah a lot when he was coaching Indiana and, in all honesty, I didn't see him bring a lot to the table," says a former Central Division scout. "I never really had much of an understanding of what he was trying to do and I often had a feeling that he didn't have an understanding of it either.
"There was one time they had Reggie Miller bring the ball up the floor on the first possession. He passes the ball to the wing and he goes and posts up. The [scout] next to me throws his pen down and starts cursing. I said, 'What's the matter?' He said, 'I saw them play last night and they did the same thing.' And they did -- every possession in the first half, but not once in the second half."
Enjoy, New York -- he's all yours.
4. Will Kobe learn to share?
Perhaps an equally important question is: Should Kobe Bryant share?
"Nine times out of 10, the formula rings true that a Kobe shot, open or contested, is probably better than most other players open shots," an NBA scout says. "The truth is he might be the best available option on every play he is involved with."
Even so, Kobe averaged more than four assists a game last season, a year after he averaged six dimes a night in his first season without Shaq as a teammate.
As prolific a passer as he is (4.5 apg for his career), Kobe has rarely been a willing passer, a function in part of his distrust of his teammates but even more because of his supreme confidence in his abilities.
"I think the one thing that keeps Kobe from being as great as he could be is a sense with him that every third play down the court, he has to do something that makes the crowd go, 'Wow, nobody else could have hit that shot,'" says a team consultant. "I think Kobe sometimes will pass up an easy opportunity so he can make a more difficult shot."
As every superstar has learned -- and Kobe is finding out -- no team can expect to make any legitimate playoff noise off of the hand of one player. Lamar Odom and Vladimir Radmanovic are no Robert Horry and Derek Fisher, but they aren't Von Wafer or Brian Cook, either.
After two years of proving he can be "the man," Kobe has an opportunity to burnish his legacy by making the Lakers better than they should be. That will require a level of sacrifice Kobe has yet to demonstrate -- and few expect he ever will.
5. Can the Pistons recover from the loss of Big Ben?
Replacing Ben Wallace with Nazr Mohammed is a little like trading in a Range Rover for a Toyota Corolla. The Pistons' new car will work efficiently, but it'll be woefully underpowered when Detroit needs to gain some separation on the road to the playoffs.
Mohammed isn't a bad player -- on a per-minute basis, he grabs as many boards and scores twice as much as Big Ben -- but Wallace was the one player Detroit had who was a legitimate difference-maker, a player few teams could effectively counter.
Still, the Pistons return 4/5ths of a starting lineup that has reached four consecutive Eastern Conference finals, a safety blanket Detroit will rely on.
"We're not going to say, well, Ben's not here, so those four guys are going to play differently," says Pistons VP John Hammond. "We looked at the free-agent class and asked who's a player that we like that we think will help us continue at the same pace that we've been playing at for the last couple of years. We had one guy in mind and that was Nazr."
With Flip Saunders calling the shots, that pace has become decidedly open on both sides of the floor.
While Detroit's scoring improved to 13th in '05-06 from 24th the season before, the club's defensive field-goal percentage allowed fell from fifth to 13th. The numbers aren't indicative of a team in crisis, but they do suggest a team in slow decline.
And with every step the Pistons take further from the title won in 2004, they draw closer to an ugly abyss.
"That's one of the dangers of having a real veteran team," a team consultant says. "If things don't go well, then you've got four or five guys who feel like they could coach it themselves, and they can make that a lot tougher for a coach."
Though Saunders has the support of management, that means nothing on a bench of players who were quick to point fingers last spring when their playoff end was near.
With Wallace now 300 miles to the west, that end may come a lot quicker this season.
6. What do the Mavericks need to get over the top?
Not much, considering they won 60 games last season, reached the Western Conference finals and were a quarter away from taking an insurmountable three-games-to-none lead in the Finals.
Of course, as we all know, they stumbled while trying to take that final step. So what to do?
Well, they tweaked the bench a bit, adding a dash of defense with Greg Buckner and Devean George and a pinch of offense with Anthony Johnson and Austin Croshere.
"We wanted to improve our depth and increase our flexibility," Mavs owner Mark Cuban says via an e-mail to SI.com. "Now our defenders can also score and spread the defense."
Plus, Cuban has solidified the team's future, with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Josh Howard and coach Avery Johnson all signing new deals the last few months.
Talent has never been at issue in Dallas during the Cuban era; tenacity has been.
"It's all an attitude thing," a Western Conference scout says. "As long as they feel like they're being victimized, I don't feel like they're going to reach their full potential. And I think their owner hurts them that way.
"He's at every game, he's on the bench, he's screaming about every call. It's a tremendous distraction and it's got to affect the players. You don't worry about things you can't control; you're wasting your energy and misplacing your focus.
"They need to just go out and be aggressive and let the chips fall where they may."
7. Will Amaré Stoudemire's return help the Suns reach the Finals?
On paper, the return from injury of a 20-point, nine-rebound 23-year-old talent should be enough to bridge the gap from two-time conference finalist to NBA finalist.
"He is a perfect fit for their style of play and is exactly what they were lacking against Dallas last season," one scout says. "The West is flexible enough to adapt to Phoenix's style over a seven-game series. The Suns needed Amaré's versatility to dominate inside and increase their scoring and floor balance."
Of course, the Suns still won 54 games without him and extended the Mavs to six games in the West finals, which -- if the MVP vote was any indication -- mostly had to do with having Steve Nash on the floor.
Really, though, it had as just as much to do with Shawn Marion.
In 41 minutes a night last season, Marion averaged 22 points, 12 boards, two blocks and shot a career-high 52.5 percent from the floor and a respectable 33 percent from behind the arc, all without the protective presence of Stoudemire.
"To be able to have a guy like Marion play the 4 radically changes how the Suns can play," a consultant says. "And he does it at both ends. Amaré hasn't quite figured out defense yet; he gives up a lot on the [defensive] end."
Until he -- and the Suns -- stop being so generous defensively, Phoenix will remain a Western bridesmaid.
8. Is San Antonio's window of opportunity about to close?
It sure seems that way, doesn't it, what with their second-round playoff exit last spring and all of the preseason love that Dallas and Phoenix are receiving.
But don't forget that this team was only a bad foul by Manu Ginobili away from dispatching the Mavs in seven games.
Also, don't forget that they've added two promising big men in Jackie Butler and Francisco Elson.
Oh, and don't forget this team also has a two-time MVP on the roster named Tim Duncan.
Yet there's no denying that age and injuries are creeping up on this team. From Robert Horry to Michael Finley to Brent Barry to Jacque Vaughn, the bench is more than veteran -- it's simply old.
Also, Duncan and Ginobili were both at less than full strength as they struggled with the aches and pains of playing an average of 100 games a season over the last four years.
When healthy and in form, this club has the smarts and skills to win any game in any venue, which should make for another 55-win or more season. When those bones start to feel every minute of their playing days, though, it makes for a vulnerable team.
"Their performance in the playoffs, especially against Dallas, against whom they were just terrible on defense, has to be kind of disturbing because that's what they do -- they're a good defensive team," a front-office consultant says. "They tried to go small against Dallas and just had trouble matching up; that's kind of a concern."
With a healthy Duncan (coach Gregg Popovich will undoubtedly limit his minutes to that end), the Spurs will reach the Finals. Without? Eva Longoria shouldn't plan for much screen time come June.
9. Will anyone score on the Bulls?
Yes -- but it won't be easy, especially after the league's top defense added the four-time Defensive Player of the Year, Ben Wallace.
"Pound for pound, game for game, play for play, possession for possession [the Bulls] are the hardest working team in the NBA," a scout says. "[Now] they have aligned a defensive-minded player with a defensive-minded coach on one of the most resilient teams in the league, which combines the No. 1 individual defender with the league's No. 1 field-goal percentage and two-point field-goal percentage allowed defense. It is like a pre-arranged marriage that should last a lifetime."
But is it the power couple GM John Paxson hopes it will become? Not without a little more firepower.
Chicago hasn't ranked higher than 22nd in field-goal shooting in three years. And consider this: "The Bulls were among the bottom five in the NBA for points in the paint, field-goal percentage inside five feet and percentage of total points from within five feet," adds the scout. "Chicago was a perimeter-based team that relied on outside shooting to make up for inside scoring. The Bulls also were 28th in percentage of points coming from the free throw line."
Now manning the middle will be Wallace, who has averaged fewer than seven points a game and shot 42 percent from the line over his career.
"Wallace might even be worse than [Tyson] Chandler," notes a front office insider. "They better hope Ben Gordon doesn't get hurt. He's a good player, but for a guy who's not a superstar, there's probably no team that relies on a player for more scoring than they do for him. It's probably even more critical this year. [Coach Scott] Skiles does have a creative playbook, but he doesn't have a lot to work with there."
With the league increasingly protecting offensive players by calling defensive play ever tighter, Chicago may regret not saving a little of the $60 million they spent to get Big Ben to add someone who can put the ball in the hoop, rather than keeping it out.
10. Will Don Nelson's return end the Warriors' playoff drought?
It has been 12 years since Golden State reached the NBA's second season. Guess who the coach was?
Don Nelson, in his return engagement in Northern California, should feel right at home taking over a club with an oddly fitting collection of talents. Troy Murphy is a long-range shooter in a power forward's body. Jason Richardson is a shooting guard without 3-point range. Baron Davis is one of the game's most dynamic point guards but can't stay healthy. And Mike Dunleavy is, hmmm, we'll get back to you on that.
"The thing that Nelson is particularly good at is taking guys who have unusual skills and finding a way to have them play in a manner that best suits those skills,"a front office consultant says.
Indeed, Nelson has already donned his lab coat this fall, shifting Murphy to center and eyeing Dunleavy as a point forward. But it often seems that Nellie is as interested in producing unconventional matchups as he is in winning.
"I'm not a big fan of his style," a Western Conference scout says. "I think he distorts the game. He spends too much time trying to tweak the rules instead of just playing meat-and-potatoes basketball: play defense, rebound, bang people and move the ball around so you've got an open guy getting the shot."
No amount of matchup juggling can overcome a relatively thin talent pool of Warriors talent in a beastly West. In other words, Golden State may be fun to watch this season, but the playoff drought should hold fast.
11. Which teams are on the rise?
• Houston Rockets A healthy Tracy McGrady is back -- at least to start the season -- as is Yao Ming, who averaged almost 26 points, 12 rebounds while shooting nearly 54 percent after the All-Star break last season. And holding it all together is the NBA's ultimate glue guy, Shane Battier, acquired in a draft night trade from Memphis.
"Obviously a lot hinges on the health of Yao and, in particular, McGrady," notes a front office consultant. "But I love Battier for this team; he's great off the ball defender; on offense he doesn't score a lot, but he doesn't make any mistakes and never turns the ball over. You've also got to guard him on the 3-point line, which allows him to take his guy away from the other scorers, which is a lot more valuable than a lot of teams realize.
"With a healthy McGrady and Battier spreading the floor, it'll be hard for teams to counter Yao, who has stretches where he appears to be almost as dominant as any player in the NBA."
Assuming McGrady keeps in touch with his chiropractor and Yao his orthopedist, the Western Conference playoff race should make room for one more.
• Orlando Magic With Jameer Nelson running the point and Darko Milicic doing all he could to prove the Pistons were wrong to trade him, the Magic won 16 of their last 20 games to end last season.
Of course, they didn't do it alone, not when Dwight Howard was busy becoming the league's second-leading rebounder at the age of 20 and Hedo Turkoglu quietly filling in some of the scoring load (including shooting 40 percent from long range) left vacant yet again by an injured Grant Hill.
Undoubtedly, part of the Magic's last season-run came at the expense of veteran teams either playing out the campaign or pacing themselves for the playoffs.
But as an Eastern Conference scout notes: "If they can stay healthy and ride the momentum of last year's finish, they will be in the hunt come April."
12. Which teams are on the decline?
• Memphis Grizzlies Just bad timing for these guys. After trading and drafting to get younger, the Grizzlies saw the core ingredient who will keep them afloat in the playoff race, Pau Gasol, sidelined for a few months of the season with a broken foot suffered in the World Championships.
"They have the most underrated team/coach in the league, but they will struggle due to Pau's injury," an opposing scout predicts. "And their offseason moves for more youth and athleticism might take a few seasons to harvest."
That won't make for an easy sell to an increasingly disinterested Memphis community for new owners Brian Davis and Christian Laettner.
• Detroit Pistons Not only did they lose the player who defined them, the Pistons now have placed their faith in Rasheed Wallace to play the good soldier through what is likely to be at least a subtle downturn in their regular-season fortunes. Good luck with that, Flip Saunders.
Even more daunting is the prospect that the Pistons' luck in keeping their starting five healthy is due to run out.
"No team gets as lucky as long as they've gotten lucky," observes an opposing consultant. "If they just have the normal number of injuries, that's going to be something they've never had to deal with before."
And that could mean a fall into the middle of a beastly Central Division.
Updated on Wednesday
Paul Forrester, SI.com
1. Who will assert himself as the NBA's best player?
Nagging foot injuries aside, Tim Duncan is still the gatekeeper to the NBA title. But this mythical award isn't reserved for the league's most influential player. This is for the league's best overall talent, the player who can fill up a boxscore, hit the game-winner, ice the contest with key free throws and make the game-clinching steal. By our estimation, that leaves three legitimate candidates:
• Kobe Bryant Says a league scout, "Ask yourself the following: If you had one possession on offense to win, who would you want to have the ball? If you had to have one defensive stop to win, who would you want to cover the ball? It is hard to imagine you would want anyone else, past or present, to answer the call. He is capable of playing multiple positions and dominates both sides of the ball. We ask champions to never back down from a challenge and to step up when it's time to do so, all of which Kobe has accomplished. We recognize greatness because it thrives under pressure, so does Kobe."
• LeBron James The only player other than Oscar Robertson and Michael Jordan to average at least 30 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists for a season, James enters his fourth season as a favorite to win the MVP award this season. This for a man who wasn't legally allowed to order a drink until last December. James' skills set isn't much different than Bryant's or Dwyane Wade's, it's that his 6-foot-8, 240-pound size -- and Cleveland's need -- allows him to use those skills for longer stretches of time.
ADVERTISEMENT
"The big difference was that LeBron played so many more minutes [last season]," a front-office consultant says. "Part of that was probably because Cleveland didn't have as much additional support, so on the nights that LeBron wasn't playing that well, the Cavs lost." Last season, only Gilbert Arenas played more minutes than James, who averaged nearly two more minutes a game than Bryant.
• Dwyane Wade It's difficult to make a case against Wade after he almost single-handedly dragged the Heat out of an 0-2 hole to win the title in June. "He stepped up and did everything that had to be done," a Western conference scout says of Wade's Finals MVP performance. "Kobe Bryant's a fabulous player, but I don't like what he's done without Shaq, and LeBron hasn't shown me he's capable of leading a team to a championship, but Dwyane Wade has."
Our verdict: Wade's championship credentials have made him the fashionable pick, LeBron is an appearance in the Finals away, but when, as a scout says, "you are the player all others compare themselves to," well, Kobe can take the last shot for us, anytime.
2. Does Shaq have anything left in the tank?
After posting career-low averages during the 2005-06 regular season in points and rebounds, Shaquille O'Neal was even less productive in the Finals, averaging 13.7 points and blocking less than a shot a game. All that despite getting unprecedented rest during the regular season, as he averaged less than 31 minutes a game, a career low.
Although Wade and a spry Alonzo Mourning helped secure the Diesel's fourth title, the Heat won't be so fortunate should Shaq offer so little over the course of an entire regular season.
But Pat Riley's no fool; Shaq's minutes will likely be more limited than ever this season in hopes of guiding an aging O'Neal into shape by the postseason.
"Diesels have two tanks," a scout says. "One for long hauls and another for short (28-game playoff) runs. In the regular season, Shaq will show up for the first quarter and average 29.9 minutes per game for roughly 55-60 games. When big games appear on the schedule, so will the dominating Shaq. Nonetheless, the Heat will still clear 55 wins because of wonder boy Wade."
But this team, and its repeat chances, still revolves around the big fella.
"When you have to gameplan and he's around that basket, that really makes you make a decision," says John Hammond, VP of a Pistons team than knows all too well the dangers inherent in facing O'Neal. "He catches in the post, he kicks out, he re-posts. It's a very, very difficult matchup."
3. Will Isiah Thomas save the Knicks, or even his job?
Bad news, Knicks fans -- Isiah Thomas isn't going anywhere this season.
Tasked to make progress this year by team owner James Dolan, Isiah should have little problem coaxing this definition of dysfunction to more than the 23 wins they produced last year.
"Larry Brown just made that whole atmosphere there so poisonous that you could coach that team to more wins," a team consultant says. "Isiah doesn't have to be the greatest coach in the world, but he can probably get more wins out them by just letting the guys play and have some fun."
Thomas likely will employ a wide-open, up-tempo pace that relies heavily on the plethora of versatile guards he has acquired as the club's GM. But will it satisfy the often impatient Dolan?
Progress, of course, is a relative term. Will 25 wins keep Isiah employed? 30? No matter, because if Isiah's past work is any indication, any improvement is likely to be a modest one at best.
"I scouted Isiah a lot when he was coaching Indiana and, in all honesty, I didn't see him bring a lot to the table," says a former Central Division scout. "I never really had much of an understanding of what he was trying to do and I often had a feeling that he didn't have an understanding of it either.
"There was one time they had Reggie Miller bring the ball up the floor on the first possession. He passes the ball to the wing and he goes and posts up. The [scout] next to me throws his pen down and starts cursing. I said, 'What's the matter?' He said, 'I saw them play last night and they did the same thing.' And they did -- every possession in the first half, but not once in the second half."
Enjoy, New York -- he's all yours.
4. Will Kobe learn to share?
Perhaps an equally important question is: Should Kobe Bryant share?
"Nine times out of 10, the formula rings true that a Kobe shot, open or contested, is probably better than most other players open shots," an NBA scout says. "The truth is he might be the best available option on every play he is involved with."
Even so, Kobe averaged more than four assists a game last season, a year after he averaged six dimes a night in his first season without Shaq as a teammate.
As prolific a passer as he is (4.5 apg for his career), Kobe has rarely been a willing passer, a function in part of his distrust of his teammates but even more because of his supreme confidence in his abilities.
"I think the one thing that keeps Kobe from being as great as he could be is a sense with him that every third play down the court, he has to do something that makes the crowd go, 'Wow, nobody else could have hit that shot,'" says a team consultant. "I think Kobe sometimes will pass up an easy opportunity so he can make a more difficult shot."
As every superstar has learned -- and Kobe is finding out -- no team can expect to make any legitimate playoff noise off of the hand of one player. Lamar Odom and Vladimir Radmanovic are no Robert Horry and Derek Fisher, but they aren't Von Wafer or Brian Cook, either.
After two years of proving he can be "the man," Kobe has an opportunity to burnish his legacy by making the Lakers better than they should be. That will require a level of sacrifice Kobe has yet to demonstrate -- and few expect he ever will.
5. Can the Pistons recover from the loss of Big Ben?
Replacing Ben Wallace with Nazr Mohammed is a little like trading in a Range Rover for a Toyota Corolla. The Pistons' new car will work efficiently, but it'll be woefully underpowered when Detroit needs to gain some separation on the road to the playoffs.
Mohammed isn't a bad player -- on a per-minute basis, he grabs as many boards and scores twice as much as Big Ben -- but Wallace was the one player Detroit had who was a legitimate difference-maker, a player few teams could effectively counter.
Still, the Pistons return 4/5ths of a starting lineup that has reached four consecutive Eastern Conference finals, a safety blanket Detroit will rely on.
"We're not going to say, well, Ben's not here, so those four guys are going to play differently," says Pistons VP John Hammond. "We looked at the free-agent class and asked who's a player that we like that we think will help us continue at the same pace that we've been playing at for the last couple of years. We had one guy in mind and that was Nazr."
With Flip Saunders calling the shots, that pace has become decidedly open on both sides of the floor.
While Detroit's scoring improved to 13th in '05-06 from 24th the season before, the club's defensive field-goal percentage allowed fell from fifth to 13th. The numbers aren't indicative of a team in crisis, but they do suggest a team in slow decline.
And with every step the Pistons take further from the title won in 2004, they draw closer to an ugly abyss.
"That's one of the dangers of having a real veteran team," a team consultant says. "If things don't go well, then you've got four or five guys who feel like they could coach it themselves, and they can make that a lot tougher for a coach."
Though Saunders has the support of management, that means nothing on a bench of players who were quick to point fingers last spring when their playoff end was near.
With Wallace now 300 miles to the west, that end may come a lot quicker this season.
6. What do the Mavericks need to get over the top?
Not much, considering they won 60 games last season, reached the Western Conference finals and were a quarter away from taking an insurmountable three-games-to-none lead in the Finals.
Of course, as we all know, they stumbled while trying to take that final step. So what to do?
Well, they tweaked the bench a bit, adding a dash of defense with Greg Buckner and Devean George and a pinch of offense with Anthony Johnson and Austin Croshere.
"We wanted to improve our depth and increase our flexibility," Mavs owner Mark Cuban says via an e-mail to SI.com. "Now our defenders can also score and spread the defense."
Plus, Cuban has solidified the team's future, with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Josh Howard and coach Avery Johnson all signing new deals the last few months.
Talent has never been at issue in Dallas during the Cuban era; tenacity has been.
"It's all an attitude thing," a Western Conference scout says. "As long as they feel like they're being victimized, I don't feel like they're going to reach their full potential. And I think their owner hurts them that way.
"He's at every game, he's on the bench, he's screaming about every call. It's a tremendous distraction and it's got to affect the players. You don't worry about things you can't control; you're wasting your energy and misplacing your focus.
"They need to just go out and be aggressive and let the chips fall where they may."
7. Will Amaré Stoudemire's return help the Suns reach the Finals?
On paper, the return from injury of a 20-point, nine-rebound 23-year-old talent should be enough to bridge the gap from two-time conference finalist to NBA finalist.
"He is a perfect fit for their style of play and is exactly what they were lacking against Dallas last season," one scout says. "The West is flexible enough to adapt to Phoenix's style over a seven-game series. The Suns needed Amaré's versatility to dominate inside and increase their scoring and floor balance."
Of course, the Suns still won 54 games without him and extended the Mavs to six games in the West finals, which -- if the MVP vote was any indication -- mostly had to do with having Steve Nash on the floor.
Really, though, it had as just as much to do with Shawn Marion.
In 41 minutes a night last season, Marion averaged 22 points, 12 boards, two blocks and shot a career-high 52.5 percent from the floor and a respectable 33 percent from behind the arc, all without the protective presence of Stoudemire.
"To be able to have a guy like Marion play the 4 radically changes how the Suns can play," a consultant says. "And he does it at both ends. Amaré hasn't quite figured out defense yet; he gives up a lot on the [defensive] end."
Until he -- and the Suns -- stop being so generous defensively, Phoenix will remain a Western bridesmaid.
8. Is San Antonio's window of opportunity about to close?
It sure seems that way, doesn't it, what with their second-round playoff exit last spring and all of the preseason love that Dallas and Phoenix are receiving.
But don't forget that this team was only a bad foul by Manu Ginobili away from dispatching the Mavs in seven games.
Also, don't forget that they've added two promising big men in Jackie Butler and Francisco Elson.
Oh, and don't forget this team also has a two-time MVP on the roster named Tim Duncan.
Yet there's no denying that age and injuries are creeping up on this team. From Robert Horry to Michael Finley to Brent Barry to Jacque Vaughn, the bench is more than veteran -- it's simply old.
Also, Duncan and Ginobili were both at less than full strength as they struggled with the aches and pains of playing an average of 100 games a season over the last four years.
When healthy and in form, this club has the smarts and skills to win any game in any venue, which should make for another 55-win or more season. When those bones start to feel every minute of their playing days, though, it makes for a vulnerable team.
"Their performance in the playoffs, especially against Dallas, against whom they were just terrible on defense, has to be kind of disturbing because that's what they do -- they're a good defensive team," a front-office consultant says. "They tried to go small against Dallas and just had trouble matching up; that's kind of a concern."
With a healthy Duncan (coach Gregg Popovich will undoubtedly limit his minutes to that end), the Spurs will reach the Finals. Without? Eva Longoria shouldn't plan for much screen time come June.
9. Will anyone score on the Bulls?
Yes -- but it won't be easy, especially after the league's top defense added the four-time Defensive Player of the Year, Ben Wallace.
"Pound for pound, game for game, play for play, possession for possession [the Bulls] are the hardest working team in the NBA," a scout says. "[Now] they have aligned a defensive-minded player with a defensive-minded coach on one of the most resilient teams in the league, which combines the No. 1 individual defender with the league's No. 1 field-goal percentage and two-point field-goal percentage allowed defense. It is like a pre-arranged marriage that should last a lifetime."
But is it the power couple GM John Paxson hopes it will become? Not without a little more firepower.
Chicago hasn't ranked higher than 22nd in field-goal shooting in three years. And consider this: "The Bulls were among the bottom five in the NBA for points in the paint, field-goal percentage inside five feet and percentage of total points from within five feet," adds the scout. "Chicago was a perimeter-based team that relied on outside shooting to make up for inside scoring. The Bulls also were 28th in percentage of points coming from the free throw line."
Now manning the middle will be Wallace, who has averaged fewer than seven points a game and shot 42 percent from the line over his career.
"Wallace might even be worse than [Tyson] Chandler," notes a front office insider. "They better hope Ben Gordon doesn't get hurt. He's a good player, but for a guy who's not a superstar, there's probably no team that relies on a player for more scoring than they do for him. It's probably even more critical this year. [Coach Scott] Skiles does have a creative playbook, but he doesn't have a lot to work with there."
With the league increasingly protecting offensive players by calling defensive play ever tighter, Chicago may regret not saving a little of the $60 million they spent to get Big Ben to add someone who can put the ball in the hoop, rather than keeping it out.
10. Will Don Nelson's return end the Warriors' playoff drought?
It has been 12 years since Golden State reached the NBA's second season. Guess who the coach was?
Don Nelson, in his return engagement in Northern California, should feel right at home taking over a club with an oddly fitting collection of talents. Troy Murphy is a long-range shooter in a power forward's body. Jason Richardson is a shooting guard without 3-point range. Baron Davis is one of the game's most dynamic point guards but can't stay healthy. And Mike Dunleavy is, hmmm, we'll get back to you on that.
"The thing that Nelson is particularly good at is taking guys who have unusual skills and finding a way to have them play in a manner that best suits those skills,"a front office consultant says.
Indeed, Nelson has already donned his lab coat this fall, shifting Murphy to center and eyeing Dunleavy as a point forward. But it often seems that Nellie is as interested in producing unconventional matchups as he is in winning.
"I'm not a big fan of his style," a Western Conference scout says. "I think he distorts the game. He spends too much time trying to tweak the rules instead of just playing meat-and-potatoes basketball: play defense, rebound, bang people and move the ball around so you've got an open guy getting the shot."
No amount of matchup juggling can overcome a relatively thin talent pool of Warriors talent in a beastly West. In other words, Golden State may be fun to watch this season, but the playoff drought should hold fast.
11. Which teams are on the rise?
• Houston Rockets A healthy Tracy McGrady is back -- at least to start the season -- as is Yao Ming, who averaged almost 26 points, 12 rebounds while shooting nearly 54 percent after the All-Star break last season. And holding it all together is the NBA's ultimate glue guy, Shane Battier, acquired in a draft night trade from Memphis.
"Obviously a lot hinges on the health of Yao and, in particular, McGrady," notes a front office consultant. "But I love Battier for this team; he's great off the ball defender; on offense he doesn't score a lot, but he doesn't make any mistakes and never turns the ball over. You've also got to guard him on the 3-point line, which allows him to take his guy away from the other scorers, which is a lot more valuable than a lot of teams realize.
"With a healthy McGrady and Battier spreading the floor, it'll be hard for teams to counter Yao, who has stretches where he appears to be almost as dominant as any player in the NBA."
Assuming McGrady keeps in touch with his chiropractor and Yao his orthopedist, the Western Conference playoff race should make room for one more.
• Orlando Magic With Jameer Nelson running the point and Darko Milicic doing all he could to prove the Pistons were wrong to trade him, the Magic won 16 of their last 20 games to end last season.
Of course, they didn't do it alone, not when Dwight Howard was busy becoming the league's second-leading rebounder at the age of 20 and Hedo Turkoglu quietly filling in some of the scoring load (including shooting 40 percent from long range) left vacant yet again by an injured Grant Hill.
Undoubtedly, part of the Magic's last season-run came at the expense of veteran teams either playing out the campaign or pacing themselves for the playoffs.
But as an Eastern Conference scout notes: "If they can stay healthy and ride the momentum of last year's finish, they will be in the hunt come April."
12. Which teams are on the decline?
• Memphis Grizzlies Just bad timing for these guys. After trading and drafting to get younger, the Grizzlies saw the core ingredient who will keep them afloat in the playoff race, Pau Gasol, sidelined for a few months of the season with a broken foot suffered in the World Championships.
"They have the most underrated team/coach in the league, but they will struggle due to Pau's injury," an opposing scout predicts. "And their offseason moves for more youth and athleticism might take a few seasons to harvest."
That won't make for an easy sell to an increasingly disinterested Memphis community for new owners Brian Davis and Christian Laettner.
• Detroit Pistons Not only did they lose the player who defined them, the Pistons now have placed their faith in Rasheed Wallace to play the good soldier through what is likely to be at least a subtle downturn in their regular-season fortunes. Good luck with that, Flip Saunders.
Even more daunting is the prospect that the Pistons' luck in keeping their starting five healthy is due to run out.
"No team gets as lucky as long as they've gotten lucky," observes an opposing consultant. "If they just have the normal number of injuries, that's going to be something they've never had to deal with before."
And that could mean a fall into the middle of a beastly Central Division.
Updated on Wednesday