Senate Polls tied at 50-50

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

MO, TN, VA, and MT remain the seats to watch. The latest poll has VA going back to the Democrats. Hopefully Allen can say some more stupid shit before the election and swing that fully.

MT is barely Democratic right now, and TN and VA both remain slightly Republican. I think TN is probably going to go to the Republicans, but hopefully Fox can continue to have an impact in MO.

[boutons_]

Diebold, close-minded, ignorant "value" voters, black voter intimidation, disenfranchisement, etc, to the Repug rescue. :lol

[turambar85]

God, I have no idea which way the Tennessee vote will go. The public perception right now in the area is, at least for now, still feeling much more responsive to Corker.

I realize that Knoxville is Eastern Tennessee, and votes far differently than Memphis and the western side, but that is still a sign that the recent controversy has not stirred things up as much as they should have/could have.

I am about to vote right now...I feel like it is a waste of my time, except for voting no on the state constititutional amendment banning gay marriage.

Corker and Ford Jr. are two twin turds with different last names.

[ChumpDumper]

The Rove/Yonivore poll shows Republican gains in both houses, so there.

[turambar85]

The Rove/Yonivore poll shows Republican gains in both houses, so there.


Well, thats because the Rove/Yonivore polls are including the expected Republican push by Jesus right before the election.

After all, the republicans, or at least Bush, are acting, under the accord and will of God.

This fall, vote democrat :donkey , vote satan :cooldevil !!

Damn pagans

[JoeChalupa]

I predict the Republicans will keep control of both the House and the Senate. With all the re-disctricting that was done across the country in favor of republicans it has made it very difficult for democrats to unseat incumbents.

[xrayzebra]

Well, thats because the Rove/Yonivore polls are including the expected Republican push by Jesus right before the election.

After all, the republicans, or at least Bush, are acting, under the accord and will of God.

This fall, vote democrat :donkey , vote satan :cooldevil !!

Damn pagans

Well you pretty well have established your credentials with this statement.
Welcome to the Liberal Party.

[DFW Spurs]

I predict the Republicans will keep control of both the House and the Senate. With all the re-disctricting that was done across the country in favor of republicans it has made it very difficult for democrats to unseat incumbents.

Don't start back peddling now... Everyone here sounds so sure the Dems are going to win the senate, so don't start planting the seeds of doubt / excuses yet...

[xrayzebra]

I predict the Republicans will keep control of both the House and the Senate. With all the re-disctricting that was done across the country in favor of republicans it has made it very difficult for democrats to unseat incumbents.


Oh-boy! Joe, the dimms never did such a thing, right? (or should I say left)

[ChumpDumper]

Nah, the Senate is a reach. It is more competitive than I thought it would be, but the ineptitude of Republican candidates (VA and MT) and ad campaigns (TN) are to be thanked for that more than anything Democrats did.

[xrayzebra]

^^At this point, with all the "instant" polls and "junk" polls the only way we are
going to know is when the election is over. And if the Repubs win, then it is going
to be because the stole the election, like 00 and 04. The groundwork has already
been laid. So either way, the dimms are covered.

[MannyIsGod]

No way the Republicans keep control of the House. No way. The Senate is a lot closer than I thought it would be, but really the Republicans should keep a slight edge there.

[Reginald Red Forman]

Well you pretty well have established your credentials with this statement.
Welcome to the Liberal Party.

No, I simply showed the problems I have with people using religion, as Bush and Yonivore have done, in relation to politics.

If you read closely enough to catch that post and its alleged implications, can you not also read where I am having fits over whether or not to vote for Harold Ford Jr? I believe that a liberal would vote for Ford regardless...I, however, think both Corker and Ford are worthless politicians.

I welcome myself to not having a party. It feel soooo good, you should give it a test-drive.

[turambar85]

No, I simply showed the problems I have with people using religion, as Bush and Yonivore have done, in relation to politics.

If you read closely enough to catch that post and its alleged implications, can you not also read where I am having fits over whether or not to vote for Harold Ford Jr? I believe that a liberal would vote for Ford regardless...I, however, think both Corker and Ford are worthless politicians.

I welcome myself to not having a party. It feel soooo good, you should give it a test-drive.

Sorry, I am using my brothers computer and forgot that he also has an account and failed to sign out first.

That post was from me, Turambar.

[JoeChalupa]

Don't start back peddling now... Everyone here sounds so sure the Dems are going to win the senate, so don't start planting the seeds of doubt / excuses yet...

I'm not back pedalling at all. I've always said, read prior posts if you care too, that I didn't think democrats would take the House or the Senate. I'll be very happy if they do but I don't believe that damn liberal media.

[JoeChalupa]

Oh-boy! Joe, the dimms never did such a thing, right? (or should I say left)

You are correct sir!! Just saying that the republicans have control and they did what they needed to do. Yes, both parties do it.

[JoeChalupa]

I hope Manny is as good with elections as he is with the weather.

[Nbadan]

I hope Manny is as good with elections as he is with the weather.

Considering I've been saying the same thing for three weeks, I guess he is as 'gifted' as predicting the weather.

:clap

[JoeChalupa]

Considering I've been saying the same thing for three weeks, I guess he is as 'gifted' as predicting the weather.

:clap

I hope I am wrong. I really do.

[boutons_]

Polls are always misleading.

I don't like the way the polls are suggesting the Repugs are gonna get their stinking butts stomped.

Tim Russert did just point out that when the polls showed the Repugs leading the Dems in 1994 mid-terms by 6 pts, the result was the Repug "revolution".

In the same poll now, Russert says the Dems are leading the Repugs by 15 pts. :)

[Ocotillo]

My prediction, the Dems will take the House.

In the Senate, the Dems pick up Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island, Viriginia and Missouri. Ford falls short in Tennessee a victim of the artificial higher numbers African Americans get in polls. Good for up to five points, the theory goes that people will tell a pollster they will vote for an African American so as not to appear racist and then once alone in the voting booth, they pull the lever for their opponent.

In the above scenario, the Dems would control the Senate but Rove pulls out his suprise and this time it comes in November. Should Lieberman hang on in Connecticut, the deal has been made to name him Rumsfeld's replacement. Connecticut will have a Republican Governor who will then appoint an R to take Lieberman's place handing the majority back to the Rs as Darth Cheney becomes the tie breaking vote.

Lieberman continues to perpetuate the fraud that he is not really a Republican by winning as an indy and giving the Bush cabinet bipartisan cred.

BTW, Joe Chalupa has been pessimistic about the Dems chances since the discussion began.

[spurster]

The NYT has the Senate at:

40 Safe Dem.
8 Leading Dem.
4 Toss up
1Leading Rep.
40 Safe Rep.

and the House at:

196 Safe Dem.
19 Leading Dem.
17 Toss up
26 Leading Rep.
177 Safe Rep.

[Ocotillo]

Hmm, Arizona in play? (http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/11/tea_leaf_watch_1.html)

The DSCC's Schumer holds a pen and pad to announce that the party is snapping up all available ad time in can find in AZ.

Why AZ? Here'a a memo from pollsters Paul Harstad and Chris Keating the DSCC will release today: "According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents." (Hotline)

This is totally out of the blue. If the Dems could pull this off it would be huge.

[01Snake]

This is totally out of the blue. If the Dems could pull this off it would be huge.

I bet over half the state of AZ isn't allowed to vote. At the rate the illegals flow in down there, the state will ulitmately go to the Dems if it hasn't already.

[MannyIsGod]

Hmm, Arizona in play? (http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/11/tea_leaf_watch_1.html)

The DSCC's Schumer holds a pen and pad to announce that the party is snapping up all available ad time in can find in AZ.

Why AZ? Here'a a memo from pollsters Paul Harstad and Chris Keating the DSCC will release today: "According to our October 29 to 31 survey of 745 likely Arizona voters, fully 30% of the Arizona electorate has already voted. We expect that perhaps up to two-fifths of the voters in this election will vote early or by absentee ballot. In our October 8 to 31 tracking polls (since early voting started) we have interviewed a total of 594 early voters. Among these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared to 40% for Kyl, with 4% for other candidates and 12% refused. This 4% Pederson lead is all the more remarkable since registered Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to have voted early, and in fact there are more Republicans than Democrats in this early-voting sample of 594 respondents." (Hotline)

This is totally out of the blue. If the Dems could pull this off it would be huge.Wow, I'm not sure if I believe that will hold up, but we'll see.

In the meantime, the latest poll has Republicans and Democrats tied in MO.

[Nbadan]

I bet over half the state of AZ isn't allowed to vote. At the rate the illegals flow in down there, the state will ulitmately go to the Dems if it hasn't already.

...and that's the real reason Republicans want to intimidate hispanics by requiring voters ID's, and why they want to build a big fence to slow the flow of future Democratic voters into California and the rest of the SouthWest, not any type of invasion. The US gets many hard working immigrants that keep important industries, like housing, affordable, and they pay into a Social Security system that they never get to collect, kinda like anyone in the U.S. under 35.