coopdogg3
11-01-2006, 03:24 PM
May belong on the NBA site, but I like Bill's work. Picks the Spurs to go all the way - so I guess that's the connection. I pasted the Spurs parts, he likes the moves the Spurs made this off-season.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/part1/061101
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/part2/061101
At the Nuggets-Clippers preseason game on Friday night, there was a level of serenity that I hadn't remembered. Both teams were just playing ball. So I'm watching and watching and thinking to myself, "All right, what's different about this game?"
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
Hopefully we won't see much of this nonsense anymore.Then I figured it out: Thanks to the new "Rasheed Wallace" rule, players weren't bitching and moaning after every foul call.
By coming up with this wrinkle, was David Stern hoping to divert attention away from the fallout from last season's playoffs, when the brutal officiating brought back memories of the Allies-Nazis game in "Victory"? Yeah, probably. Still, you have to admit, players were whining and fussing in epidemic proportions. Nobody believed he could actually commit a foul. Even some of the better character guys (like Tim Duncan and Tayshaun Prince, to name two) were reacting after fouls like somebody had just stuck a parking ticket on their car. It was a disgrace. It seemed like they felt obligated to protest every call, like the one moment during the Spurs-Mavs series when Brent Barry was whistled for a foul and ran a few steps in disbelief, but you could tell his heart wasn't really in it, like he was doing it on autopilot.
Watching old games on NBA TV this summer, well before this rule was announced, I found myself admiring a random Portland-Philly game from the '77 Finals: Not the quality of play as much as its businesslike nature. Players were just playing hard and doing their jobs. It was a revelation. So that got me thinking, "When did this crap start? Who's to blame?"
For the rest of the summer, I kept an eye on the player-referee interactions as much as the old games. Rick Barry and Dave Cowens were famous for complaining about calls in the '70s, but much to my horror, two members of my beloved Celtics made bitching an art form in the mid-'80s: Danny Ainge and Kevin McHale. If you want to blame anyone, blame them. Barkley took it to another level, followed by Chuck Daly and the Bad Boy Pistons, Gary Payton and Sam Cassell and, ultimately, Rasheed and Antoine Walker in the mid-'90s (the Pacino and DeNiro of this discussion). By the middle of this decade, thanks to everyone in this paragraph, everyone felt obligated to protest every whistle. The incessant complaining looked bad on TV and even worse in person -- just play after play of guys getting called for fouls, hopping around like little kids, then debating with the referees like an attorney haggling with a judge. Like everyone else, I hated watching it.
Now? The refs have been given authority to whistle technicals on anyone who pulls that crap. The league will be better for it. You will see. Maybe the level of officiating will even be better for it. If last season's performance was a collective D-plus -- and that's being kind -- we might end up with a C-plus this season simply because the refs won't have to worry about being shown up every other play. And if that's not enough, watching 'Sheed and 'Toine internalizing their emotions could end up being the funniest ongoing subplot of the 2006-07 season. Well, other than the Knicks.
So that's just the first of 33 reasons you should be intrigued by the upcoming season. Here's every other absorbing subplot to get you ready for the next nine months.
NBA Money Player
Time for a new feature with my annual NBA preview: Over/under picks for team victories! Please note that each over/under comes with a money line, with everything based on $100 -- so if the line reads -130, that means you'd wager $130 to win $100, and if it reads +120 that means you'd wager $100 to win $120. Ten picks for the upcoming season:
Boston -- Over 36.5 (-115)
LA Clippers -- Over 46.5 (-115)
New Jersey -- Over 47 (-115)
San Antonio -- Over 56 (-115)
Washington -- Over 41 (-130)
Golden State -- Under 37.5 (+115)
L.A. Lakers -- Under 43 (even)
Miami -- Under 51 (+120)
Milwaukee -- Under 39 (-125)
New York -- Under 31.5 (+105)
2. Tim Duncan
Healthy, happy and hungry. Everything you need to know about the season starts here. We'll come back to him.
3. Kevin Garnett and Allen Iverson
Just as healthy, just as hungry, not nearly as happy. Hence, we could be headed for the most fascinating trade deadline in years: Two of the best 30 players OF ALL-TIME available at the tail end of their primes, along with the usual suspects (Jermaine O'Neal, Zach Randolph, Carlos Boozer, Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Baron Davis, Kenyon Martin, Wally Szczerbiak, and if that's not enough, a number of teams (the Bulls, Clippers, Hawks, Magic and Celtics, to name five) with the right mix of picks, young players and contracts to accommodate a major deal.
That's why it's almost useless to write an NBA preview this season -- it's like writing a fall TV preview and predicting "Friday Night Lights" will be a hit without knowing if NBC would be dumb enough to schedule it against the baseball playoffs and Monday Night Football. (Note: Yes, it was dumb enough.) We know the landscape will look decidedly different in February than it does now. I could see KG wearing a Bulls uniform. I could see Iverson wearing a Clippers uniform. I could see Stephen Jackson wearing a prison uniform. ...
4. Quentin Richardson and Eddy Curry
If you're trying to figure out how the Knicks season could possibly be more entertaining than it was last season, well, here's how: More fat guys! Move over from the buffet table, Jerome James, Q and Eddy are coming in for seconds! If they ever start the same game, the PA announcer should announce them with their combined weight, like they're a wrestling tag-team or something.
Isiah's working on a Eddy Curry-Greg Oden trade with Ohio State.I can't believe what a disaster this Knicks team is. OK, maybe I can. But will there ever be a more inexplicable move than the Knicks spending $30 million on the insanely mediocre Jared Jeffries (really $60 million since they have to pay double for the luxury tax), than allowing the Spurs to steal Jackie Butler (a legitimate sleeper at center) away for $7 million because they were worried about the luxury tax ramifications? What about the illogical Jalen Rose buyout, whose $16.9 million salary could have been used for a deadline deal in a few months? What about the season-ticket holders fleeing in droves? What about Isiah being forced to coach this mess? My head is spinning.
(Note: I maintained from Day 1 that Isiah would be an unequivocal disaster in New York, but never in my wildest dreams did I imagine he could cost the Knicks hundreds of millions of dollars. That's not a misprint. He has cost the Knicks hundreds of millions of dollars. This was one of those rare sports stories that somehow went underreported for whatever reason, like everyone backed off because he's been so incompetent, it wasn't even that interesting to discuss. Well, think of all the attention T.O. received over the past few years, or Barry Bonds or even A-Rod, ... how could anything be a bigger story than Isiah Thomas single-handedly destroying the NBA's marquee franchise? You'll understand in two years when you're watching Spike Lee's documentary about the Isiah era: "When Eddy Curry's Levi's Broke.")
5. Robert Swift's ACL
You saw him in the preseason, right? He looked like a cross between Chris Andersen, Ronald McDonald and the guy who screamed "You s--- on my house!" at Patrick Dempsey in "Can't Buy Me Love." (Check out this story for pictures and details.) And wouldn't you know it? Right after they hand him the starting center job, he blows out his knee just as we're recalibrating the Unintentional Comedy Scale for him. Just devastating. I'm almost inconsolable about this. Biggest bummer of the season.
6. Revenge of the young point guards
You can pencil the following 25-and-under players as starters or solid rotation guys at the very least: Chris Paul; Shaun Livingston; Rajon Rondo and Bassy Telfair; T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon; Ray Felton; Deron Williams; Jarrett Jack; Tony Parker (you forget, he's only 24); Mo Williams and Leandro Barbosa (two hybrid guards, but whatever); Devin Harris; Jameer Nelson; Kirk Hinrich; Vassilis Spanoulis; Luke Ridnour; Marcus Williams (yes, the Laptop Guy); and possibly, Jordan Farmar (let's throw him in here because he'll be stealing Smush Parker's job before Christmas). That's a whopping 19 young point guards who look exceedingly competent -- at worst -- heading into the upcoming season.
So not only is the game becoming faster and more fan-friendly, but there's a sudden abundance of young guards ready to help push that evolution along. It's like the perfect storm. Five years from now, you will never, ever, EVER see the likes of Kevin Ollie or Eric Snow starting in this league. There's no way a team could afford to take the offensive hit. This is a good thing. Andohbytheway, the adage that you shouldn't trade big for small has taken a major hit over the past two seasons. If you don't have one of these guards who can get into the paint, you're missing out. It's the single best way to take advantage of the new rules.
(Important note No. 1: This doesn't mean you should trade Charlie Villaneuva for T.J. Ford, then pick Andrea Bargnani over Brandon Roy and Adam Morrison. That's still dumb, no matter what the rules are.)
(Important note No. 2: I will now be incorporating "andohbytheway" into my columns as mandated by the new company-wide policy that all ESPN personalities must say the phrase "andohbytheway" as much as possible. Andohbytheway, I'm not a big fan of this policy.)
7. The new basketballs
Yet another ingenious Stern move: Make a completely random change for no real reason at all (the dress code last year, the basketballs this year), get everyone complaining about the change and, eventually, steal some headlines from the NFL and playoff baseball in October. He's the best. I can't wait until next year's random new rule, which will definitely be something like "No chewing gum during games because it doesn't look classy" or "You have to wear NBA-approved bulletproof vests when you go to a club."
AP Photo/Bill Kostroun
Nets fans are worried VC will bolt for Orlando.
8. Vince Carter in a contract year
Here's why I can't understand why people are doubting the 2006-07 Nets: VINCE CARTER IS IN A CONTRACT YEAR. The guy with the most famous on/off switch in the league will have that baby pressed to "ON" from November through June, right? And since he's one of the 10 most talented players alive when he wants to be, doesn't this make the Nets a legitimate threat this season? Throw in Kidd, Jefferson, Krstic (a perfectly good big man for the new era of basketball) and a much-improved bench (they went from an F-minus to a C-plus with the wildly underrated Mikki Moore, Marcus Williams, Eddie House and others), as well as a crappy conference, and this looks like a 50-55 win team to me. People are sleeping on these guys.
Speaking of Williams, let's just hand him the 2006 Charlie Villaneuva Award right now. Every June, there's one shaky guy in the draft who either goes way too early (and takes enough grief about it that the negative comments gives him a sense of purpose) or way too late (and takes it personally enough that the slight ends up turning his career around). If Williams went in the top 10, he probably would have been a bust. Instead, he went 22nd, lucked out by landing on a veteran team with J-Kidd, and now he looks like a potential game-changer coming off the bench. And if that's not enough, it will be fun to watch every reporter at courtside instinctively grab for their laptops every time Williams comes to the scorer's table to check into a game. Good times all around.
9. Gilbert Arenas, lunatic
Although I'm convinced he's doing this because he loves seeing himself in the NBA blogs. I bet he has a member of his entourage whose specific duty is to determine how many days have passed since the last time he was mentioned on True Hoop and Free Darko, then tells him, "Yo, Gilbert, you need to say something crazy after practice today, it's been six days ... "
10. Josh Smith vs. Andrei Kirilenko
The battle for the No. 1 spot on the "Guys Who Are Much More Exciting to See In Person Than They Are On TV" team is on. And you know what? As long as the Jazz keep playing Kirilenko out of position at small forward, I'm giving the edge to Smith. Plus, playing with two talented guards like Chris Paul and Brandon Roy would make any forward better. Oh, wait -- that's the backcourt Smith COULD have had. My bad.
(Note to Billy Knight. Just resign. Seriously. Hang it up. You passed on consecutive Rookie of the Year Award winners for no good reason. These are the facts.)
11. The Bizarro Clippers
Hanging out with some Clippers employees after Friday night's game, I worried aloud that the Clippers had too many quality guys. How would they juggle minutes for Brand, Kaman, Mobley, Cassell, Livingston, Thomas, Ross and Maggette, all of whom would be getting major time for any other team in the league? Could the vets check their egos at the door? Who would emerge as the crunch-time scorer? How would they integrate promising young players like James Singleton, Daniel Ewing and Paul Davis (a second-round steal last June)? Would those guys even get off the bench? And was Mike Dunleavy a good enough coach to pull the right strings and find all the right matchups? He certainly couldn't pull it off last spring, right? Sometimes it can be dangerous to have too many players -- it's almost like what happened to "Lost" in Season 3, when they've added so many new characters that they've stopped spending enough time with the ones that mattered. Over the past 20 years, only Isiah's Detroit teams managed to win a title with nine quality players and multiple crunch-time lineups, while dozens of other teams have tried and failed. It's like a parent not sticking with a set bedtime for their child every night -- sure, they can do it, but eventually there's going to be ramifications.
Anyway, I'm describing my "too many guys" theory, and one of the Clipper guys (Christian, in his 16th year with the Clips) interrupts me just to say, "Wow ... too many good guys? Now there's a problem we've never had before."
(An excellent point. My apologies, Clippers fans. You have the right to be excited about having too many good players. Hell, you have the right to be excited about any good players. But it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. I still think they're an Iverson trade waiting to happen. It's the logical move.)
Rick Diamond/WireImage.com
Who has the better album, Ron-Ron or K-Fed?
12. A full season of Mr. Ron Artest
This e-mail from Ludlum in Columbus, Ohio, sums everything up: "Just read a headline on ESPN.com that said, '[Police] arrest made in connection with Berbick slaying.' I read it fast and mistakenly thought it said 'Artest made in connection with Berbick slaying' and my first thought was 'Hmm, really ...' (like it wasn't surprising at all). My second thought was that Artest is without a doubt on Mike Tyson's level of insanity, if a reasonably sane person like myself can make that Freudian slip and not be shocked."
(Ladies and gentleman, Mr. Ron Artest!)
13. The least inspiring title defense since the '99 Bulls
Note to anyone picking Miami to run away with the East: You need to consider the following things:
A. For this team to win 50-plus games, Wade needs to play between 42-45 minutes a night ... and he's coming off a 100-game NBA season, a World Championships stint and about 730 hard fouls over the past 12 months. You really think Riley will be cracking the whip here?
B. This team is older than Al Davis. Alonzo and GP are on their last legs. 'Toine has bad knees. Shaq has accomplished everything he ever wanted and probably spent the last few months auditioning rap artists and reading movie scripts. They have no young players other than Udonis Haslem, no young legs to carry them on back-to-backs, and if that's not bad enough, everyone will be gunning for them as the defending champs. Also, they had multiple players swallow their pride and accept less shots/minutes for the greater good -- and even then, they never truly came together as a team until Games 5 and 6 of the Finals. Now they all have their rings. You really think 'Toine and White Chocolate will be passing up wide-open 3-pointers again so they can keep getting Shaq and Wade involved? Come on.
C. During a preseason game against Houston last week, one of the ESPN announcers casually remarked that Riley said his goal for the upcoming season was to finish as one of the top-four seeds. This way, they won't have to potentially play four Game 7s on the road. I'm not saying that this isn't smart -- actually, it's the perfect way to approach things, and there's a history of older teams playing it successfully this way (like the '68, '69 and '76 Celtics, for example). But if you think Miami will be steamrolling through the league for the next six months, you're kidding yourself. I see them finishing between 44 and 50 wins. That won't be enough.
NBA award projections
MVP: LeBron James
ROY: Brandon Roy
Comeback: Kenyon Martin
Most Improved: Sebastian Telfair
Sixth Man: Alonzo Mourning
Defense: Raja Bell
Coach: Lawrence Frank
GM: Carroll Dawson
Comedy: Chris Kaman/Gilbert Arenas
Tyson Zone: Eddie Griffin
First Team All-NBA: Duncan, Nowitzki, Nash, James, Wade.
Second Team All-NBA: Yao, Brand, Arenas, Kobe, Carter.
Third Team All-NBA: Howard, Pierce, Anthony, Paul, McGrady.
14. Reggie Evans
But seriously ... can you put a price on seeing the Nuggets this season and sitting in a section with 30-40 fans screaming "Nut grabber!!!!" every time Evans comes into the game? I feel like this should be part of his name now, like the announcer should say, "Now entering the game for Denver, the Nut Grabber, Reggie Evans!" The lesson, as always: Don't grab somebody else's nuts during an NBA game.
15. The feel-good Trail Blazers
If you're scoring at home, they performed a basketball exorcism over the past two summers, building the team around likable young players (Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack, LaMarcus Aldridge) and nonthreatening white guys (Joel Przybilla, Dan Dickau, Raef LaFrentz). Only two bad apples remain: Darius Miles (M.I.A. and mulling microfracture surgery) and Zach Randolph (improbably rejuvenated). In fact, I think that should have been their 2007 marketing campaign: "The 2007 Blazers: Only two bad apples remain!"
But here's the thing, Blazers fans: You're going to miss the dysfunction. You're going to miss having an identity, even if that identity was a running joke that included the word "jail." You're going to miss waking up and reading stories like "One of our guys was berating people at a charity car wash yesterday," or having a buddy call you just to ask, "Guess who just got arrested with pot in his car?" You're going to miss wondering if two teammates are about to come to blows in the huddle, and you're definitely going to miss those wacky stories about pit-bull fights and guys trying to sneak marijuana through an airport security. Now you're just a fan of another NBA lottery team. You're nothing special. That's why you feel hollow inside. You're like Red after he gets out in "Shawshank" -- you can't make it on the outside. By December, you'll be rooting for Randolph to rob a gas station or something. Just remember we had this conversation.
Part II
16. The feel-bad Sixers
I have them penciled in for "worst team in the East" status, and not just because they'll be dealing Iverson within the next four months and everyone in Philly is more depressed than Robert Smith when he was writing the "Disintegration" album. Consider the following things ...
Mansoor Ahmed/WireImage.com
His defense doesn't justify his salary.A. They're stuck paying Iverson and C-Webb a combined $81 million over the next two seasons.
B. They're paying $21 million in dead salary money this season to Todd MacCulloch, Jamal Mashburn and Greg Buckner.
C. They owe Sam Dalembert and Kyle Korver another $79 million over the next five seasons.
D. Their starting point guard is Kevin Ollie, the NBA equivalent of kicking off an NFL season with Sage Rosenfels and Aaron Brooks.
E. According to the Indy Star, Embattled GM Billy King (that's officially his name now) spent $1,600 to attend Coach K's leadership conference two weeks ago.
F. Points A-thru-D and point E are probably related.
G. Philly reader Rob B. sums everything up: "I'm a Sixers season-ticket holder, which probably tells you everything you need to know about my psyche. The Sixers send you an e-mail at some point each offseason where they lay out what their new ad campaign is this year. They've had doozies in the past, including one campaign that said 'This place is fun!' This year, the slogan is 'It's a Philly thing.' (Go to Sixers.com, it's plastered all over there. And you get to see Mo Cheeks say 'It's a Philly thing' in a really awkward manner.) My friends and I have been pondering for months now what exactly 'it' is? Losing? Mediocrity? Overpaying crappy players? Disappointment?"
17. Pau Gasol's broken foot
Note to every NBA owner: You might want to rethink the whole, "Sure, I'll let my best player play for free on his national team this summer ... what's the worst thing that could happen?" logic. No other business loans out $100 million assets for free. Why? Because it's bad business. Earlier this summer, Cuban had a great rant about this on his blog. ... You know, back when he used to write about stuff other than the YouTube-Google merger.
(Wait, did I just complain about the content in a free Internet column? Could somebody report me to the Hypocrite Police, please?)
18. Grant Hill
Did you know his contract finally expires this season? Doesn't it feel like he signed that thing back in 1983? Anyway, I can't wait for the Magic to make a big deal about finally having cap space next summer, followed by their panicking when Vince Carter's agent hardballs them and eventually overpaying Eddie Jones and Kurt Thomas for a combined $95 million. That's gonna be great. I love the NBA.
19. A possible HGH scandal
I'm just throwing it out there: Out of all the major sports, wouldn't HGH and steroids help basketball players the most? They improve strength and conditioning, help your body recover from injuries (an invaluable edge during an 82-game season), improve your eyesight, give you more of an angry edge ... I mean, what's the downside for a mediocre center or power forward here? You know, other than a bulky forehead, an extra chin, shrunken testicles and possible organ damage? For instance, let's say you're Kurt Thomas right now. You're in a contract year, you're going to be banging bodies in the West all season ... wouldn't an HGH cycle from February to June get you twice as much money in July?
(Note: Right now Tim Thomas is reading this and saying, "Um, could you shut up? Could you shut the hell up, please? I mean it ... SHUT UP!" Just kidding. Although, you have to admit, it was a little strange that a skinny 6-foot-10 perimeter player who was renowned for being soft could suddenly defend power forwards like Lamar Odom, Elton Brand and Dirk Nowitzki in the playoffs. If there was a dramatic shift like that with somebody's baseball career -- you know, like Kenny Rogers suddenly throwing in the low 90s and screaming like a maniac after every strikeout -- we immediately assume that something's up, right? Well, why don't we do the same thing with NBA players? I'm just curious.)
Anyway, I'm predicting that 2006-07 will be the season when the NBA joins the fun and has its first steroids scandal. It's inevitable. And I can only hope and pray that Brian Scalabrine is somehow involved.
20. The Greg Oden Sweepstakes
If you thought the tanking was bad last April, wait until you see what happens this spring. You'll see players reenacting Tony's performance from the fixed game in "Blue Chips." By the way, do we have a birth certificate on this kid yet? We're sure he's not 29 years old, right? I keep waiting for somebody to doctor an Internet photo of Oden and Freddy Adu attending a Wu Tang Clan concert together in 1995.
21. Nellie and the Warriors
Two of the more rational writers on this Web site, as well as two people who were too cool for the letter "K" -- Marc Stein and Ric Bucher -- predicted the Warriors would make the playoffs with Troy Murphy playing center, Mike Dunleavy Jr. playing point forward and Baron Davis being Baron Davis. And I tried to see it from their side. Really, I did. I know it's fun to play the whole "everyone in the NBA is playing NellieBall now, who could do it better than Nellie himself?" angle. I just have one question ...
AP Photo/Ben Margot
Can Nellie get Golden State back into the playoffs? We'll see.How can NellieBall work with the wrong players? Didn't we already go down this road when he bombed with the '96 Knicks in half a season? You need a great point guard, you need a scoring forward on the low post, and you need multiple shooters ... and Nellie has only one of those three things (the shooters, and even they aren't that good). And if that's not enough, the Warriors are the Arizona Cardinals of the NBA -- every season, they suck their fans in to thinking they'll be good, and every season something goes terribly wrong and their fans delve into the "Woe is us" routine, and with reason, because no NBA team has had it worse over the past 30 years.
Do I think Nellie would have a ball coaching in the NBA right now? Absolutely. It's a league that revolves around penetrators and shooters, two of his favorite things. Do I think he could turn the Celtics into a possible 50-win team just by switching places with Doc Rivers in the next two minutes? No question about it. But expecting Nellie to salvage the careers of limited guys like Dunleavy and Murphy and convince Baron Davis that he's the new Tim Hardaway ... I mean, it's completely insane. There's no way. You'd have a better chance to seeing him turn around "Saturday Night Live." And if that's not bad enough, the man has a history of belittling and undermining his players; right now, the only guy with the balls to stand up to him on that entire roster is Jason Richardson. I see them winning 35 games, I see them making multiple trades, and I see myself sending multiple taunting e-mails to Bucher and Stein. This is going to be fun.
While we're here, I see four other teams falling short of expectations this season:
Milwaukee: Who decided it would be a good idea to saddle a crappy coach with a couple of head cases (it's one thing to roll the dice with Charlie Villanueva, but Ruben Patterson?????) and a shoot-first point guard in a contract year (Mo Williams, the runaway favorite to win the Mike James Award for "best stats on a bad team")? A recipe for disaster.
New Orleans: People underestimate the boost from those Oklahoma City crowds last season. That was a lottery team that ended up winning an extra 8-10 games and gaining confidence simply because of their fans. That's not happening again. Although I did like the Peja/Chandler moves.
Indiana: Saw Larry Legend on TV talking about Red over the weekend ... he looked like he's aged 10 years in the past two. They need to blow that thing up and start over. We can't be messing with the Legend's twilight years.
Chicago: Lemme get this straight ... they won 47 games two seasons ago because of their defense and fourth-quarter scoring ... then they dropped to 41 wins because the rules changed and they couldn't match baskets with better offensive teams ... so the solution was to trade for P.J. Brown (complete non-factor on the offensive end), spend $60 million on Ben Wallace (ditto) and draft Ty Thomas (another rebounder/leaper) with the No. 2 pick? Who the hell is scoring on this team???? Why am I the only person who seems to be wondering about this? Hey, if they can contend for the 2007 title with a team built for 2003 rules, God bless 'em. I'm just not seeing it.
Eastern Conference Breakdown
1. New Jersey: 53-29
2. Cleveland: 52-30
3. Washington: 49-33
4. Miami: 47-35
5. Detroit: 46-36
6. Chicago: 45-37
7. Boston: 43-39
8. Orlando: 41-41
9. Indiana: 40-42
10. Toronto: 36-46
11. Milwaukee: 35-47
12. Philly: 33-49
13. Charlotte: 31-51
14. Atlanta: 30-52
15. New York: 19-63
First round: Cleveland over Boston; Chicago over Washington; Miami over Detroit; N.J. over Orlando.
Second round: Miami over N.J.; Cleveland over Chicago.
East finals: Cleveland over Miami.
22. Isiah Thomas, head coach
We mentioned how the same guy who once squandered a playoff series in which his team had 10 of the best 12 players (2003, Boston vs. Indiana) is back coaching again, right? This is like Sofia Coppola casting herself as Marie Antoinette.
(Important note: Thanks to the ongoing miracle at MSG, Doc Rivers isn't even the worst coach in his own division any more. You really have to see Isiah sitting on the sidelines, completely motionless, an indescribable smile on his face, watching a perpetual car crash happen on the court. ... I mean, at least Doc stands up and smiles every once in awhile.)
23. Amare and the Suns
Um ... shouldn't that knee be healthy by now? And why does everyone keep penciling these guys down for 55 wins when we have no idea about Amare's knee, and if that's not bad enough, they lost Tim Thomas (their toughest guy last season), gave away the 21st pick in last year's draft when they could have just picked Rondo or Williams (both of whom would have been perfect for them), then overpaid a shaky character guy (Marcus Banks). Not the best offseason. On the bright side, it led to Amare revealing that he draws inspiration for his comeback from Tupac Shakur and Bruce Lee. I'm feeling a fantastic tattoo in his future. Unfortunately for the Suns, I'm not feeling a 25-12 every game.
But here's a team in the West that I DO like ...
24. The Rockets
Mmmmmmm ... can you smell that? It's the smell of common sense. The eighth pick dealt away for a proven Glue Guy (Shane Battier). A mid-level exemption spread around on multiple guys, including a proven playoff scorer with a terrible agent (Bonzi Wells). Underrated role players with specific qualities that work for winning teams, like rookie Steve Novak (a freakishly good 3-point shooter), Chuck Hayes (one of those bangers who always rates high on Hollinger's PER reports) and Vassilis Spanoulis (a shifty Greek guard who definitely needs a nickname like "Kojak"). And if that's not enough, they have two of the best 12 players in the league in Yao and T-Mac. There are eight teams that could win the NBA title next spring. This is one of them.
Mansoor Ahmed/WireImage.com
Amare's health is one of the season's biggest questions.
25. Jorge Garbajosa
Spanish forward on the Raptors. Looks like he should be wearing a linen suit and trying to shoot Crockett and Tubbs. It's hard to tell if he showers or not. But you know what? He does a ton of "those things" (gets garbage layups, makes open 3s, ticks people off in the low post, knows how to execute the roll on a pick-and-roll) and looks like the odds-on favorite to win the 2007 Andres Nocioni Memorial "I Don't Know Who That Foreign Dude Is, But He's Pretty Good" Award. One potential threat: Yakhouba Diawara has been making a late run in Denver, with the added bonus that Marv Albert might actually scream the words, "Yak-houb-ah Di-ah-WARE-ah!" this season. Keep an eye on this one.
(One other random foreign guy I like: the Swedish dude on Chicago. He can shoot. By January, I'll even be able to pronounce his name.)
26. Legitimate rivalries
Bron-Bron vs. Wade. Kobe vs. Raja. San Antonio vs. Dallas. Cuban vs. Stern. KG vs. Duncan vs. Brand vs. Nowitzki. Nellie vs. Avery. Vince vs. Toronto. Wallace vs. the Pistons. K-Mart vs. Karl. Arenas vs. the entire league. The T-Wolves vs. the Minneapolis police. Artest vs. his inner demons. Nash vs. his barber. Greg Anthony vs. Isiah. Curry & Richardson vs. the salad bar in the Knicks' player's lounge. Hubie Brown vs. the second-person. The Hawks owners vs. each other. Peter Vecsey vs. everybody.
(Translation: This could be the feistiest NBA season yet! And we haven't even address my brewing feud with celebrity fantasy league punching bag Kenny Smith. Let's save that for another time.)
Moses Robinson/WireImage.com
A quiet season for Cuban? Yeah right.
27. Mike Breen and Mark Jackson
Finally, a No. 1 announcing team I can fully support. This is the first time the Finals has been in good hands since Marv and the Czar were together on NBC, right? Actually, I don't want to jinx this. Forget I said anything.
(Three other random moves I enjoyed: Austin Croshere to the Mavs; Josh Powell to the Pacers; Speedy Claxton to the Hawks. I like all of those guys. And the thought of Jalen Rose signing with Miami has me all giddy inside -- sure, he's washed up, but the comedic potential of Jalen, White Chocolate and Shaq on the same team simply cannot be calibrated. They might replace the Wayans Brothers before everything's said and done. On the flip side&)
28. Front office idiocy
Check it out, I can zoom through this in one paragraph ...
We already covered the Knicks. The Cavs decided to go to war with Snow, Damon Jones and David Wesley as their point guards (so much for taking advantage of the new rules). Denver dropped $60 million on Nene, who has a knee and wasn't even that good in the first place. (Sorry, I went Al Michaels on you there.) Phoenix and Sacramento splurged a combined $45 million on two stiffs (John Salmons and Marcus Banks). Portland botched the LaMarcus Aldridge pick when it should have just taken Morrison and made its fans happy. Atlanta passed on Brandon Roy because it made a promise at No. 5 to someone who wasn't a top-five pick. The Lakers added another soft perimeter player (Vlad Radmanovic, who I actually like, but not on this team) on a team filled with soft perimeter players. (Kobe is going to flip out by January.) Toronto willingly traded for Rasho Nesterovic, while Milwaukee gave away Jamaal Magliore for no real reason. Philly failed to trade Iverson while it could still get 80 cents on the dollar for him; same for Minnesota with KG. The Pacers downgraded from Ron Artest to Peja Stojakovic to Al Harrington in the span of six months, while Detroit parlayed Darko, Carlos Arroyo and Ben Wallace into Nazr Mohammed and a No. 1 pick in the same time span.
(See? Told you we could cover that in one paragraph. By the way, we just mentioned 14 teams. That's half the league.)
29. DerMarr Johnson's hair
Who knows if he'll keep it going ... but on Friday night, he had the right side of his head braided in cornrows, but the left side of his head was a mini-afro with no cornrows. I feel like you need to know these things.
(Note: This also led to a moment in the third quarter when Sam Cassell started busting DerMarr's chops in front of the Nuggets' bench, then cracked a joke that left the entire Nuggets bench doubled over and convulsing for about 15 seconds, followed by DerMarr walking away with one of those, "Damn, I thought you guys were my teammates" looks on his face. And you wonder why I go to exhibition games.)
AP Photo/Jerry S. Mendoza
Look for Carmelo to light it up this season.
30. Carmelo
Random prediction: I just feel like he's going off this season. Pencil him in for between 29-31 a night and official Evolutionary Bernard status. And while we're here, get ready for career years from Chris Bosh, Parker, Randolph, Arenas and Chauncey Billups (contract year), as well as making-the-leap years from Caron Butler, Ray Felton, Deron Williams, Jameer Nelson and Josh Smith and out-of-nowhere years from Jamaal Tinsley, Nick Collison, Hakim Warrick, Mo Peterson and David Lee (if Isiah plays him, which he should), as well as a two-man race for "Rookie of the Year" between Brandon Roy and Rajon Rondo that leaves everyone wondering, "Wait, where's everyone else?"
31. Front office savvy
Other than the Rockets, Clippers and Nets, I liked what three teams did this summer:
San Antonio: The Spurs didn't panic. Duncan was hurt all season and the Mavs caught every break in the semis. It just wasn't their season. They knew it. So they made some minor moves. They dumped Rasho for Matt Bonner (an intriguing piece for this team, shades of Danny Ferry's one good season for them), took fliers on Francisco Elson (kind of a stiff, but no worse than Rasho) and Jackie Butler (my favorite move of the summer) and called it a day. Plus, they have the flexibility to move three appealing contracts (Eric Williams, Bruce Bowen and Brent Barry) for an impact player making max money near the deadline. You know, if they need to go that route. Every move was smart and logical. And it's sad that I felt obligated to mention this.
Washington: I just enjoyed that they allowed Jared Jeffries to leave for $30 million, then replaced him with DeShawn Stevenson for 1/30th of the price ... even though Stevenson is probably 9/10th's as good a player as Jeffries. That's always fun. People are underestimating these guys, by the way.
Boston: They didn't have a true point guard on the roster, so every half-court possession was practically a chore. So Ainge goes out and gets Telfair (who will evolve into a Barbosa-like scorer once the coach who replaces Doc Rivers in 10 weeks starts bringing him off the bench) and Rondo (a truly special talent). Problem solved. Suddenly they're one of the fastest teams in the league, and if you don't think Pierce and Szczerbiak are going off with all the wide-open outside jumpers and layups they'll be getting, you're crazy. This team would win 45-50 games with Mike D'Antoni or Nelson coaching them. I really believe that.
(One more note on Doc: Along with Sam Mitchell, he was the co-leader in the "first coach to be fired" sweepstakes even before he botched the Telfair debacle two weeks ago and dropped that historic "I'm not going to form a rotation just because people say you should have a 10-man rotation" quote last week. You can't even say he's on thin ice anymore; we're at the point where he fell through the ice and he's breathing through one of those tiny air pockets waiting for rescuers to pull him out before he freezes to death. If he's still playing 11 guys on a below-.500 team past Thanksgiving, TNT may as well get Doc's measurements and start ordering his TNT blazers.)
Western Conference Breakdown
1. San Antonio: 63-19
2. L.A. Clippers: 56-26
3. Denver: 44-38
4. Dallas: 60-22
5. Phoenix: 54-28
6. Houston: 49-33
7. Utah: 41-41
8. L.A. Lakers: 40-42
9. Sacramento: 39-43
10. Minnesota: 37-45
10. New Orleans: 36-46
12. Golden State: 33-49
13. Seattle: 30-52
14. Memphis: 28-54
15. Portland: 20-62
1st round: Phoenix over Dallas; Houston over Denver; L.A. Clippers over Utah; S.A. over L.A. Lakers.
2nd round: S.A. over Houston; LAC over Phoenix.
West Finals: S.A. over LAC.
32. Bron-Bron and D-Wade
Everything's been said at this point. Well, almost everything. Because there's a hidden subtext to this entire season: Wade won a title last June, LeBron spent the entire summer pretending he was happy for him when you know he was thinking, "Dammit, he got there first!" ... and now we get to see LeBron's official response, immediately followed by Wade's response to LeBron's response, then LeBron's counter-response. ... It's going to be like a game of chicken. True rivalries only work when it's clear that each guy needs the other guy to reach his full potential as a player, so we stumbled into the perfect scenario here: Two precociously talented superduperstars constantly striving for the upper hand and raising each other's games in the process. It's almost too good to be true. These are the days when I miss Ralph Wiley.
33. Tim Duncan
I told you we'd come back to him. As I mentioned earlier, only eight teams can win the NBA title this season as presently constructed. Here they are.
LONGSHOTS
New Jersey: It all depends on Vince. You can understand why I'm dubious.
Houston: Would you bet on Yao and T-Mac holding up through June? Probably not. But at 18-to-1, they're the best longshot bet on the board. By far. You can go to war with Yao, T-Mac, Bonzi and Battier in May and June.
Phoenix: We've been here before with the Suns. They need the 2004 Amare to even consider making a run ... and even then, I don't see them defending anyone when it matters. They're like the Colts of the NBA.
AP Photo/Eric Gay
A healthy, rested Tim Duncan = a very, very dangerous Spurs team.THE CONTENDERS
Cleveland: Put it this way: With that subpar supporting cast, they need an absolutely superhuman effort from LeBron. He'd have to blow some of those MJ years in the late-'80s out of the water. It's just too improbable. Of course, if the Cavs can somehow sneak into the Finals in a subpar conference, and he's getting every call like Wade did last June ...
Miami: A slightly better version of the previous paragraph (and with a better coach).
L.A. Clippers: I have a terrible feeling that they'll be one of those teams that COULD win the title but ends up blowing a series where they have the lead in three of their four losses in the final minute. You know, kinda like last year.
Dallas: Can't shake the notion that they blew their chance last June. I mean, they had it. It was right there. Up by 13, six minutes to go, headed for a sweep. That was their moment. I can't see them being any better or closer to winning. In fact, I see them further away. And why?
THE FAVORITE
San Antonio: Because Dallas would have lost to the Spurs if Ginobili didn't stupidly foul Dirk on that three-point play in Game 7. And that wasn't a great Spurs team -- poor Duncan was hobbling around on one foot. Now he's healthy, he's in great shape, and he's ticked off. And that's all I need to know.
The Pick: San Antonio over Cleveland.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/part1/061101
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/part2/061101
At the Nuggets-Clippers preseason game on Friday night, there was a level of serenity that I hadn't remembered. Both teams were just playing ball. So I'm watching and watching and thinking to myself, "All right, what's different about this game?"
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
Hopefully we won't see much of this nonsense anymore.Then I figured it out: Thanks to the new "Rasheed Wallace" rule, players weren't bitching and moaning after every foul call.
By coming up with this wrinkle, was David Stern hoping to divert attention away from the fallout from last season's playoffs, when the brutal officiating brought back memories of the Allies-Nazis game in "Victory"? Yeah, probably. Still, you have to admit, players were whining and fussing in epidemic proportions. Nobody believed he could actually commit a foul. Even some of the better character guys (like Tim Duncan and Tayshaun Prince, to name two) were reacting after fouls like somebody had just stuck a parking ticket on their car. It was a disgrace. It seemed like they felt obligated to protest every call, like the one moment during the Spurs-Mavs series when Brent Barry was whistled for a foul and ran a few steps in disbelief, but you could tell his heart wasn't really in it, like he was doing it on autopilot.
Watching old games on NBA TV this summer, well before this rule was announced, I found myself admiring a random Portland-Philly game from the '77 Finals: Not the quality of play as much as its businesslike nature. Players were just playing hard and doing their jobs. It was a revelation. So that got me thinking, "When did this crap start? Who's to blame?"
For the rest of the summer, I kept an eye on the player-referee interactions as much as the old games. Rick Barry and Dave Cowens were famous for complaining about calls in the '70s, but much to my horror, two members of my beloved Celtics made bitching an art form in the mid-'80s: Danny Ainge and Kevin McHale. If you want to blame anyone, blame them. Barkley took it to another level, followed by Chuck Daly and the Bad Boy Pistons, Gary Payton and Sam Cassell and, ultimately, Rasheed and Antoine Walker in the mid-'90s (the Pacino and DeNiro of this discussion). By the middle of this decade, thanks to everyone in this paragraph, everyone felt obligated to protest every whistle. The incessant complaining looked bad on TV and even worse in person -- just play after play of guys getting called for fouls, hopping around like little kids, then debating with the referees like an attorney haggling with a judge. Like everyone else, I hated watching it.
Now? The refs have been given authority to whistle technicals on anyone who pulls that crap. The league will be better for it. You will see. Maybe the level of officiating will even be better for it. If last season's performance was a collective D-plus -- and that's being kind -- we might end up with a C-plus this season simply because the refs won't have to worry about being shown up every other play. And if that's not enough, watching 'Sheed and 'Toine internalizing their emotions could end up being the funniest ongoing subplot of the 2006-07 season. Well, other than the Knicks.
So that's just the first of 33 reasons you should be intrigued by the upcoming season. Here's every other absorbing subplot to get you ready for the next nine months.
NBA Money Player
Time for a new feature with my annual NBA preview: Over/under picks for team victories! Please note that each over/under comes with a money line, with everything based on $100 -- so if the line reads -130, that means you'd wager $130 to win $100, and if it reads +120 that means you'd wager $100 to win $120. Ten picks for the upcoming season:
Boston -- Over 36.5 (-115)
LA Clippers -- Over 46.5 (-115)
New Jersey -- Over 47 (-115)
San Antonio -- Over 56 (-115)
Washington -- Over 41 (-130)
Golden State -- Under 37.5 (+115)
L.A. Lakers -- Under 43 (even)
Miami -- Under 51 (+120)
Milwaukee -- Under 39 (-125)
New York -- Under 31.5 (+105)
2. Tim Duncan
Healthy, happy and hungry. Everything you need to know about the season starts here. We'll come back to him.
3. Kevin Garnett and Allen Iverson
Just as healthy, just as hungry, not nearly as happy. Hence, we could be headed for the most fascinating trade deadline in years: Two of the best 30 players OF ALL-TIME available at the tail end of their primes, along with the usual suspects (Jermaine O'Neal, Zach Randolph, Carlos Boozer, Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Baron Davis, Kenyon Martin, Wally Szczerbiak, and if that's not enough, a number of teams (the Bulls, Clippers, Hawks, Magic and Celtics, to name five) with the right mix of picks, young players and contracts to accommodate a major deal.
That's why it's almost useless to write an NBA preview this season -- it's like writing a fall TV preview and predicting "Friday Night Lights" will be a hit without knowing if NBC would be dumb enough to schedule it against the baseball playoffs and Monday Night Football. (Note: Yes, it was dumb enough.) We know the landscape will look decidedly different in February than it does now. I could see KG wearing a Bulls uniform. I could see Iverson wearing a Clippers uniform. I could see Stephen Jackson wearing a prison uniform. ...
4. Quentin Richardson and Eddy Curry
If you're trying to figure out how the Knicks season could possibly be more entertaining than it was last season, well, here's how: More fat guys! Move over from the buffet table, Jerome James, Q and Eddy are coming in for seconds! If they ever start the same game, the PA announcer should announce them with their combined weight, like they're a wrestling tag-team or something.
Isiah's working on a Eddy Curry-Greg Oden trade with Ohio State.I can't believe what a disaster this Knicks team is. OK, maybe I can. But will there ever be a more inexplicable move than the Knicks spending $30 million on the insanely mediocre Jared Jeffries (really $60 million since they have to pay double for the luxury tax), than allowing the Spurs to steal Jackie Butler (a legitimate sleeper at center) away for $7 million because they were worried about the luxury tax ramifications? What about the illogical Jalen Rose buyout, whose $16.9 million salary could have been used for a deadline deal in a few months? What about the season-ticket holders fleeing in droves? What about Isiah being forced to coach this mess? My head is spinning.
(Note: I maintained from Day 1 that Isiah would be an unequivocal disaster in New York, but never in my wildest dreams did I imagine he could cost the Knicks hundreds of millions of dollars. That's not a misprint. He has cost the Knicks hundreds of millions of dollars. This was one of those rare sports stories that somehow went underreported for whatever reason, like everyone backed off because he's been so incompetent, it wasn't even that interesting to discuss. Well, think of all the attention T.O. received over the past few years, or Barry Bonds or even A-Rod, ... how could anything be a bigger story than Isiah Thomas single-handedly destroying the NBA's marquee franchise? You'll understand in two years when you're watching Spike Lee's documentary about the Isiah era: "When Eddy Curry's Levi's Broke.")
5. Robert Swift's ACL
You saw him in the preseason, right? He looked like a cross between Chris Andersen, Ronald McDonald and the guy who screamed "You s--- on my house!" at Patrick Dempsey in "Can't Buy Me Love." (Check out this story for pictures and details.) And wouldn't you know it? Right after they hand him the starting center job, he blows out his knee just as we're recalibrating the Unintentional Comedy Scale for him. Just devastating. I'm almost inconsolable about this. Biggest bummer of the season.
6. Revenge of the young point guards
You can pencil the following 25-and-under players as starters or solid rotation guys at the very least: Chris Paul; Shaun Livingston; Rajon Rondo and Bassy Telfair; T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon; Ray Felton; Deron Williams; Jarrett Jack; Tony Parker (you forget, he's only 24); Mo Williams and Leandro Barbosa (two hybrid guards, but whatever); Devin Harris; Jameer Nelson; Kirk Hinrich; Vassilis Spanoulis; Luke Ridnour; Marcus Williams (yes, the Laptop Guy); and possibly, Jordan Farmar (let's throw him in here because he'll be stealing Smush Parker's job before Christmas). That's a whopping 19 young point guards who look exceedingly competent -- at worst -- heading into the upcoming season.
So not only is the game becoming faster and more fan-friendly, but there's a sudden abundance of young guards ready to help push that evolution along. It's like the perfect storm. Five years from now, you will never, ever, EVER see the likes of Kevin Ollie or Eric Snow starting in this league. There's no way a team could afford to take the offensive hit. This is a good thing. Andohbytheway, the adage that you shouldn't trade big for small has taken a major hit over the past two seasons. If you don't have one of these guards who can get into the paint, you're missing out. It's the single best way to take advantage of the new rules.
(Important note No. 1: This doesn't mean you should trade Charlie Villaneuva for T.J. Ford, then pick Andrea Bargnani over Brandon Roy and Adam Morrison. That's still dumb, no matter what the rules are.)
(Important note No. 2: I will now be incorporating "andohbytheway" into my columns as mandated by the new company-wide policy that all ESPN personalities must say the phrase "andohbytheway" as much as possible. Andohbytheway, I'm not a big fan of this policy.)
7. The new basketballs
Yet another ingenious Stern move: Make a completely random change for no real reason at all (the dress code last year, the basketballs this year), get everyone complaining about the change and, eventually, steal some headlines from the NFL and playoff baseball in October. He's the best. I can't wait until next year's random new rule, which will definitely be something like "No chewing gum during games because it doesn't look classy" or "You have to wear NBA-approved bulletproof vests when you go to a club."
AP Photo/Bill Kostroun
Nets fans are worried VC will bolt for Orlando.
8. Vince Carter in a contract year
Here's why I can't understand why people are doubting the 2006-07 Nets: VINCE CARTER IS IN A CONTRACT YEAR. The guy with the most famous on/off switch in the league will have that baby pressed to "ON" from November through June, right? And since he's one of the 10 most talented players alive when he wants to be, doesn't this make the Nets a legitimate threat this season? Throw in Kidd, Jefferson, Krstic (a perfectly good big man for the new era of basketball) and a much-improved bench (they went from an F-minus to a C-plus with the wildly underrated Mikki Moore, Marcus Williams, Eddie House and others), as well as a crappy conference, and this looks like a 50-55 win team to me. People are sleeping on these guys.
Speaking of Williams, let's just hand him the 2006 Charlie Villaneuva Award right now. Every June, there's one shaky guy in the draft who either goes way too early (and takes enough grief about it that the negative comments gives him a sense of purpose) or way too late (and takes it personally enough that the slight ends up turning his career around). If Williams went in the top 10, he probably would have been a bust. Instead, he went 22nd, lucked out by landing on a veteran team with J-Kidd, and now he looks like a potential game-changer coming off the bench. And if that's not enough, it will be fun to watch every reporter at courtside instinctively grab for their laptops every time Williams comes to the scorer's table to check into a game. Good times all around.
9. Gilbert Arenas, lunatic
Although I'm convinced he's doing this because he loves seeing himself in the NBA blogs. I bet he has a member of his entourage whose specific duty is to determine how many days have passed since the last time he was mentioned on True Hoop and Free Darko, then tells him, "Yo, Gilbert, you need to say something crazy after practice today, it's been six days ... "
10. Josh Smith vs. Andrei Kirilenko
The battle for the No. 1 spot on the "Guys Who Are Much More Exciting to See In Person Than They Are On TV" team is on. And you know what? As long as the Jazz keep playing Kirilenko out of position at small forward, I'm giving the edge to Smith. Plus, playing with two talented guards like Chris Paul and Brandon Roy would make any forward better. Oh, wait -- that's the backcourt Smith COULD have had. My bad.
(Note to Billy Knight. Just resign. Seriously. Hang it up. You passed on consecutive Rookie of the Year Award winners for no good reason. These are the facts.)
11. The Bizarro Clippers
Hanging out with some Clippers employees after Friday night's game, I worried aloud that the Clippers had too many quality guys. How would they juggle minutes for Brand, Kaman, Mobley, Cassell, Livingston, Thomas, Ross and Maggette, all of whom would be getting major time for any other team in the league? Could the vets check their egos at the door? Who would emerge as the crunch-time scorer? How would they integrate promising young players like James Singleton, Daniel Ewing and Paul Davis (a second-round steal last June)? Would those guys even get off the bench? And was Mike Dunleavy a good enough coach to pull the right strings and find all the right matchups? He certainly couldn't pull it off last spring, right? Sometimes it can be dangerous to have too many players -- it's almost like what happened to "Lost" in Season 3, when they've added so many new characters that they've stopped spending enough time with the ones that mattered. Over the past 20 years, only Isiah's Detroit teams managed to win a title with nine quality players and multiple crunch-time lineups, while dozens of other teams have tried and failed. It's like a parent not sticking with a set bedtime for their child every night -- sure, they can do it, but eventually there's going to be ramifications.
Anyway, I'm describing my "too many guys" theory, and one of the Clipper guys (Christian, in his 16th year with the Clips) interrupts me just to say, "Wow ... too many good guys? Now there's a problem we've never had before."
(An excellent point. My apologies, Clippers fans. You have the right to be excited about having too many good players. Hell, you have the right to be excited about any good players. But it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. I still think they're an Iverson trade waiting to happen. It's the logical move.)
Rick Diamond/WireImage.com
Who has the better album, Ron-Ron or K-Fed?
12. A full season of Mr. Ron Artest
This e-mail from Ludlum in Columbus, Ohio, sums everything up: "Just read a headline on ESPN.com that said, '[Police] arrest made in connection with Berbick slaying.' I read it fast and mistakenly thought it said 'Artest made in connection with Berbick slaying' and my first thought was 'Hmm, really ...' (like it wasn't surprising at all). My second thought was that Artest is without a doubt on Mike Tyson's level of insanity, if a reasonably sane person like myself can make that Freudian slip and not be shocked."
(Ladies and gentleman, Mr. Ron Artest!)
13. The least inspiring title defense since the '99 Bulls
Note to anyone picking Miami to run away with the East: You need to consider the following things:
A. For this team to win 50-plus games, Wade needs to play between 42-45 minutes a night ... and he's coming off a 100-game NBA season, a World Championships stint and about 730 hard fouls over the past 12 months. You really think Riley will be cracking the whip here?
B. This team is older than Al Davis. Alonzo and GP are on their last legs. 'Toine has bad knees. Shaq has accomplished everything he ever wanted and probably spent the last few months auditioning rap artists and reading movie scripts. They have no young players other than Udonis Haslem, no young legs to carry them on back-to-backs, and if that's not bad enough, everyone will be gunning for them as the defending champs. Also, they had multiple players swallow their pride and accept less shots/minutes for the greater good -- and even then, they never truly came together as a team until Games 5 and 6 of the Finals. Now they all have their rings. You really think 'Toine and White Chocolate will be passing up wide-open 3-pointers again so they can keep getting Shaq and Wade involved? Come on.
C. During a preseason game against Houston last week, one of the ESPN announcers casually remarked that Riley said his goal for the upcoming season was to finish as one of the top-four seeds. This way, they won't have to potentially play four Game 7s on the road. I'm not saying that this isn't smart -- actually, it's the perfect way to approach things, and there's a history of older teams playing it successfully this way (like the '68, '69 and '76 Celtics, for example). But if you think Miami will be steamrolling through the league for the next six months, you're kidding yourself. I see them finishing between 44 and 50 wins. That won't be enough.
NBA award projections
MVP: LeBron James
ROY: Brandon Roy
Comeback: Kenyon Martin
Most Improved: Sebastian Telfair
Sixth Man: Alonzo Mourning
Defense: Raja Bell
Coach: Lawrence Frank
GM: Carroll Dawson
Comedy: Chris Kaman/Gilbert Arenas
Tyson Zone: Eddie Griffin
First Team All-NBA: Duncan, Nowitzki, Nash, James, Wade.
Second Team All-NBA: Yao, Brand, Arenas, Kobe, Carter.
Third Team All-NBA: Howard, Pierce, Anthony, Paul, McGrady.
14. Reggie Evans
But seriously ... can you put a price on seeing the Nuggets this season and sitting in a section with 30-40 fans screaming "Nut grabber!!!!" every time Evans comes into the game? I feel like this should be part of his name now, like the announcer should say, "Now entering the game for Denver, the Nut Grabber, Reggie Evans!" The lesson, as always: Don't grab somebody else's nuts during an NBA game.
15. The feel-good Trail Blazers
If you're scoring at home, they performed a basketball exorcism over the past two summers, building the team around likable young players (Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, Jarrett Jack, LaMarcus Aldridge) and nonthreatening white guys (Joel Przybilla, Dan Dickau, Raef LaFrentz). Only two bad apples remain: Darius Miles (M.I.A. and mulling microfracture surgery) and Zach Randolph (improbably rejuvenated). In fact, I think that should have been their 2007 marketing campaign: "The 2007 Blazers: Only two bad apples remain!"
But here's the thing, Blazers fans: You're going to miss the dysfunction. You're going to miss having an identity, even if that identity was a running joke that included the word "jail." You're going to miss waking up and reading stories like "One of our guys was berating people at a charity car wash yesterday," or having a buddy call you just to ask, "Guess who just got arrested with pot in his car?" You're going to miss wondering if two teammates are about to come to blows in the huddle, and you're definitely going to miss those wacky stories about pit-bull fights and guys trying to sneak marijuana through an airport security. Now you're just a fan of another NBA lottery team. You're nothing special. That's why you feel hollow inside. You're like Red after he gets out in "Shawshank" -- you can't make it on the outside. By December, you'll be rooting for Randolph to rob a gas station or something. Just remember we had this conversation.
Part II
16. The feel-bad Sixers
I have them penciled in for "worst team in the East" status, and not just because they'll be dealing Iverson within the next four months and everyone in Philly is more depressed than Robert Smith when he was writing the "Disintegration" album. Consider the following things ...
Mansoor Ahmed/WireImage.com
His defense doesn't justify his salary.A. They're stuck paying Iverson and C-Webb a combined $81 million over the next two seasons.
B. They're paying $21 million in dead salary money this season to Todd MacCulloch, Jamal Mashburn and Greg Buckner.
C. They owe Sam Dalembert and Kyle Korver another $79 million over the next five seasons.
D. Their starting point guard is Kevin Ollie, the NBA equivalent of kicking off an NFL season with Sage Rosenfels and Aaron Brooks.
E. According to the Indy Star, Embattled GM Billy King (that's officially his name now) spent $1,600 to attend Coach K's leadership conference two weeks ago.
F. Points A-thru-D and point E are probably related.
G. Philly reader Rob B. sums everything up: "I'm a Sixers season-ticket holder, which probably tells you everything you need to know about my psyche. The Sixers send you an e-mail at some point each offseason where they lay out what their new ad campaign is this year. They've had doozies in the past, including one campaign that said 'This place is fun!' This year, the slogan is 'It's a Philly thing.' (Go to Sixers.com, it's plastered all over there. And you get to see Mo Cheeks say 'It's a Philly thing' in a really awkward manner.) My friends and I have been pondering for months now what exactly 'it' is? Losing? Mediocrity? Overpaying crappy players? Disappointment?"
17. Pau Gasol's broken foot
Note to every NBA owner: You might want to rethink the whole, "Sure, I'll let my best player play for free on his national team this summer ... what's the worst thing that could happen?" logic. No other business loans out $100 million assets for free. Why? Because it's bad business. Earlier this summer, Cuban had a great rant about this on his blog. ... You know, back when he used to write about stuff other than the YouTube-Google merger.
(Wait, did I just complain about the content in a free Internet column? Could somebody report me to the Hypocrite Police, please?)
18. Grant Hill
Did you know his contract finally expires this season? Doesn't it feel like he signed that thing back in 1983? Anyway, I can't wait for the Magic to make a big deal about finally having cap space next summer, followed by their panicking when Vince Carter's agent hardballs them and eventually overpaying Eddie Jones and Kurt Thomas for a combined $95 million. That's gonna be great. I love the NBA.
19. A possible HGH scandal
I'm just throwing it out there: Out of all the major sports, wouldn't HGH and steroids help basketball players the most? They improve strength and conditioning, help your body recover from injuries (an invaluable edge during an 82-game season), improve your eyesight, give you more of an angry edge ... I mean, what's the downside for a mediocre center or power forward here? You know, other than a bulky forehead, an extra chin, shrunken testicles and possible organ damage? For instance, let's say you're Kurt Thomas right now. You're in a contract year, you're going to be banging bodies in the West all season ... wouldn't an HGH cycle from February to June get you twice as much money in July?
(Note: Right now Tim Thomas is reading this and saying, "Um, could you shut up? Could you shut the hell up, please? I mean it ... SHUT UP!" Just kidding. Although, you have to admit, it was a little strange that a skinny 6-foot-10 perimeter player who was renowned for being soft could suddenly defend power forwards like Lamar Odom, Elton Brand and Dirk Nowitzki in the playoffs. If there was a dramatic shift like that with somebody's baseball career -- you know, like Kenny Rogers suddenly throwing in the low 90s and screaming like a maniac after every strikeout -- we immediately assume that something's up, right? Well, why don't we do the same thing with NBA players? I'm just curious.)
Anyway, I'm predicting that 2006-07 will be the season when the NBA joins the fun and has its first steroids scandal. It's inevitable. And I can only hope and pray that Brian Scalabrine is somehow involved.
20. The Greg Oden Sweepstakes
If you thought the tanking was bad last April, wait until you see what happens this spring. You'll see players reenacting Tony's performance from the fixed game in "Blue Chips." By the way, do we have a birth certificate on this kid yet? We're sure he's not 29 years old, right? I keep waiting for somebody to doctor an Internet photo of Oden and Freddy Adu attending a Wu Tang Clan concert together in 1995.
21. Nellie and the Warriors
Two of the more rational writers on this Web site, as well as two people who were too cool for the letter "K" -- Marc Stein and Ric Bucher -- predicted the Warriors would make the playoffs with Troy Murphy playing center, Mike Dunleavy Jr. playing point forward and Baron Davis being Baron Davis. And I tried to see it from their side. Really, I did. I know it's fun to play the whole "everyone in the NBA is playing NellieBall now, who could do it better than Nellie himself?" angle. I just have one question ...
AP Photo/Ben Margot
Can Nellie get Golden State back into the playoffs? We'll see.How can NellieBall work with the wrong players? Didn't we already go down this road when he bombed with the '96 Knicks in half a season? You need a great point guard, you need a scoring forward on the low post, and you need multiple shooters ... and Nellie has only one of those three things (the shooters, and even they aren't that good). And if that's not enough, the Warriors are the Arizona Cardinals of the NBA -- every season, they suck their fans in to thinking they'll be good, and every season something goes terribly wrong and their fans delve into the "Woe is us" routine, and with reason, because no NBA team has had it worse over the past 30 years.
Do I think Nellie would have a ball coaching in the NBA right now? Absolutely. It's a league that revolves around penetrators and shooters, two of his favorite things. Do I think he could turn the Celtics into a possible 50-win team just by switching places with Doc Rivers in the next two minutes? No question about it. But expecting Nellie to salvage the careers of limited guys like Dunleavy and Murphy and convince Baron Davis that he's the new Tim Hardaway ... I mean, it's completely insane. There's no way. You'd have a better chance to seeing him turn around "Saturday Night Live." And if that's not bad enough, the man has a history of belittling and undermining his players; right now, the only guy with the balls to stand up to him on that entire roster is Jason Richardson. I see them winning 35 games, I see them making multiple trades, and I see myself sending multiple taunting e-mails to Bucher and Stein. This is going to be fun.
While we're here, I see four other teams falling short of expectations this season:
Milwaukee: Who decided it would be a good idea to saddle a crappy coach with a couple of head cases (it's one thing to roll the dice with Charlie Villanueva, but Ruben Patterson?????) and a shoot-first point guard in a contract year (Mo Williams, the runaway favorite to win the Mike James Award for "best stats on a bad team")? A recipe for disaster.
New Orleans: People underestimate the boost from those Oklahoma City crowds last season. That was a lottery team that ended up winning an extra 8-10 games and gaining confidence simply because of their fans. That's not happening again. Although I did like the Peja/Chandler moves.
Indiana: Saw Larry Legend on TV talking about Red over the weekend ... he looked like he's aged 10 years in the past two. They need to blow that thing up and start over. We can't be messing with the Legend's twilight years.
Chicago: Lemme get this straight ... they won 47 games two seasons ago because of their defense and fourth-quarter scoring ... then they dropped to 41 wins because the rules changed and they couldn't match baskets with better offensive teams ... so the solution was to trade for P.J. Brown (complete non-factor on the offensive end), spend $60 million on Ben Wallace (ditto) and draft Ty Thomas (another rebounder/leaper) with the No. 2 pick? Who the hell is scoring on this team???? Why am I the only person who seems to be wondering about this? Hey, if they can contend for the 2007 title with a team built for 2003 rules, God bless 'em. I'm just not seeing it.
Eastern Conference Breakdown
1. New Jersey: 53-29
2. Cleveland: 52-30
3. Washington: 49-33
4. Miami: 47-35
5. Detroit: 46-36
6. Chicago: 45-37
7. Boston: 43-39
8. Orlando: 41-41
9. Indiana: 40-42
10. Toronto: 36-46
11. Milwaukee: 35-47
12. Philly: 33-49
13. Charlotte: 31-51
14. Atlanta: 30-52
15. New York: 19-63
First round: Cleveland over Boston; Chicago over Washington; Miami over Detroit; N.J. over Orlando.
Second round: Miami over N.J.; Cleveland over Chicago.
East finals: Cleveland over Miami.
22. Isiah Thomas, head coach
We mentioned how the same guy who once squandered a playoff series in which his team had 10 of the best 12 players (2003, Boston vs. Indiana) is back coaching again, right? This is like Sofia Coppola casting herself as Marie Antoinette.
(Important note: Thanks to the ongoing miracle at MSG, Doc Rivers isn't even the worst coach in his own division any more. You really have to see Isiah sitting on the sidelines, completely motionless, an indescribable smile on his face, watching a perpetual car crash happen on the court. ... I mean, at least Doc stands up and smiles every once in awhile.)
23. Amare and the Suns
Um ... shouldn't that knee be healthy by now? And why does everyone keep penciling these guys down for 55 wins when we have no idea about Amare's knee, and if that's not bad enough, they lost Tim Thomas (their toughest guy last season), gave away the 21st pick in last year's draft when they could have just picked Rondo or Williams (both of whom would have been perfect for them), then overpaid a shaky character guy (Marcus Banks). Not the best offseason. On the bright side, it led to Amare revealing that he draws inspiration for his comeback from Tupac Shakur and Bruce Lee. I'm feeling a fantastic tattoo in his future. Unfortunately for the Suns, I'm not feeling a 25-12 every game.
But here's a team in the West that I DO like ...
24. The Rockets
Mmmmmmm ... can you smell that? It's the smell of common sense. The eighth pick dealt away for a proven Glue Guy (Shane Battier). A mid-level exemption spread around on multiple guys, including a proven playoff scorer with a terrible agent (Bonzi Wells). Underrated role players with specific qualities that work for winning teams, like rookie Steve Novak (a freakishly good 3-point shooter), Chuck Hayes (one of those bangers who always rates high on Hollinger's PER reports) and Vassilis Spanoulis (a shifty Greek guard who definitely needs a nickname like "Kojak"). And if that's not enough, they have two of the best 12 players in the league in Yao and T-Mac. There are eight teams that could win the NBA title next spring. This is one of them.
Mansoor Ahmed/WireImage.com
Amare's health is one of the season's biggest questions.
25. Jorge Garbajosa
Spanish forward on the Raptors. Looks like he should be wearing a linen suit and trying to shoot Crockett and Tubbs. It's hard to tell if he showers or not. But you know what? He does a ton of "those things" (gets garbage layups, makes open 3s, ticks people off in the low post, knows how to execute the roll on a pick-and-roll) and looks like the odds-on favorite to win the 2007 Andres Nocioni Memorial "I Don't Know Who That Foreign Dude Is, But He's Pretty Good" Award. One potential threat: Yakhouba Diawara has been making a late run in Denver, with the added bonus that Marv Albert might actually scream the words, "Yak-houb-ah Di-ah-WARE-ah!" this season. Keep an eye on this one.
(One other random foreign guy I like: the Swedish dude on Chicago. He can shoot. By January, I'll even be able to pronounce his name.)
26. Legitimate rivalries
Bron-Bron vs. Wade. Kobe vs. Raja. San Antonio vs. Dallas. Cuban vs. Stern. KG vs. Duncan vs. Brand vs. Nowitzki. Nellie vs. Avery. Vince vs. Toronto. Wallace vs. the Pistons. K-Mart vs. Karl. Arenas vs. the entire league. The T-Wolves vs. the Minneapolis police. Artest vs. his inner demons. Nash vs. his barber. Greg Anthony vs. Isiah. Curry & Richardson vs. the salad bar in the Knicks' player's lounge. Hubie Brown vs. the second-person. The Hawks owners vs. each other. Peter Vecsey vs. everybody.
(Translation: This could be the feistiest NBA season yet! And we haven't even address my brewing feud with celebrity fantasy league punching bag Kenny Smith. Let's save that for another time.)
Moses Robinson/WireImage.com
A quiet season for Cuban? Yeah right.
27. Mike Breen and Mark Jackson
Finally, a No. 1 announcing team I can fully support. This is the first time the Finals has been in good hands since Marv and the Czar were together on NBC, right? Actually, I don't want to jinx this. Forget I said anything.
(Three other random moves I enjoyed: Austin Croshere to the Mavs; Josh Powell to the Pacers; Speedy Claxton to the Hawks. I like all of those guys. And the thought of Jalen Rose signing with Miami has me all giddy inside -- sure, he's washed up, but the comedic potential of Jalen, White Chocolate and Shaq on the same team simply cannot be calibrated. They might replace the Wayans Brothers before everything's said and done. On the flip side&)
28. Front office idiocy
Check it out, I can zoom through this in one paragraph ...
We already covered the Knicks. The Cavs decided to go to war with Snow, Damon Jones and David Wesley as their point guards (so much for taking advantage of the new rules). Denver dropped $60 million on Nene, who has a knee and wasn't even that good in the first place. (Sorry, I went Al Michaels on you there.) Phoenix and Sacramento splurged a combined $45 million on two stiffs (John Salmons and Marcus Banks). Portland botched the LaMarcus Aldridge pick when it should have just taken Morrison and made its fans happy. Atlanta passed on Brandon Roy because it made a promise at No. 5 to someone who wasn't a top-five pick. The Lakers added another soft perimeter player (Vlad Radmanovic, who I actually like, but not on this team) on a team filled with soft perimeter players. (Kobe is going to flip out by January.) Toronto willingly traded for Rasho Nesterovic, while Milwaukee gave away Jamaal Magliore for no real reason. Philly failed to trade Iverson while it could still get 80 cents on the dollar for him; same for Minnesota with KG. The Pacers downgraded from Ron Artest to Peja Stojakovic to Al Harrington in the span of six months, while Detroit parlayed Darko, Carlos Arroyo and Ben Wallace into Nazr Mohammed and a No. 1 pick in the same time span.
(See? Told you we could cover that in one paragraph. By the way, we just mentioned 14 teams. That's half the league.)
29. DerMarr Johnson's hair
Who knows if he'll keep it going ... but on Friday night, he had the right side of his head braided in cornrows, but the left side of his head was a mini-afro with no cornrows. I feel like you need to know these things.
(Note: This also led to a moment in the third quarter when Sam Cassell started busting DerMarr's chops in front of the Nuggets' bench, then cracked a joke that left the entire Nuggets bench doubled over and convulsing for about 15 seconds, followed by DerMarr walking away with one of those, "Damn, I thought you guys were my teammates" looks on his face. And you wonder why I go to exhibition games.)
AP Photo/Jerry S. Mendoza
Look for Carmelo to light it up this season.
30. Carmelo
Random prediction: I just feel like he's going off this season. Pencil him in for between 29-31 a night and official Evolutionary Bernard status. And while we're here, get ready for career years from Chris Bosh, Parker, Randolph, Arenas and Chauncey Billups (contract year), as well as making-the-leap years from Caron Butler, Ray Felton, Deron Williams, Jameer Nelson and Josh Smith and out-of-nowhere years from Jamaal Tinsley, Nick Collison, Hakim Warrick, Mo Peterson and David Lee (if Isiah plays him, which he should), as well as a two-man race for "Rookie of the Year" between Brandon Roy and Rajon Rondo that leaves everyone wondering, "Wait, where's everyone else?"
31. Front office savvy
Other than the Rockets, Clippers and Nets, I liked what three teams did this summer:
San Antonio: The Spurs didn't panic. Duncan was hurt all season and the Mavs caught every break in the semis. It just wasn't their season. They knew it. So they made some minor moves. They dumped Rasho for Matt Bonner (an intriguing piece for this team, shades of Danny Ferry's one good season for them), took fliers on Francisco Elson (kind of a stiff, but no worse than Rasho) and Jackie Butler (my favorite move of the summer) and called it a day. Plus, they have the flexibility to move three appealing contracts (Eric Williams, Bruce Bowen and Brent Barry) for an impact player making max money near the deadline. You know, if they need to go that route. Every move was smart and logical. And it's sad that I felt obligated to mention this.
Washington: I just enjoyed that they allowed Jared Jeffries to leave for $30 million, then replaced him with DeShawn Stevenson for 1/30th of the price ... even though Stevenson is probably 9/10th's as good a player as Jeffries. That's always fun. People are underestimating these guys, by the way.
Boston: They didn't have a true point guard on the roster, so every half-court possession was practically a chore. So Ainge goes out and gets Telfair (who will evolve into a Barbosa-like scorer once the coach who replaces Doc Rivers in 10 weeks starts bringing him off the bench) and Rondo (a truly special talent). Problem solved. Suddenly they're one of the fastest teams in the league, and if you don't think Pierce and Szczerbiak are going off with all the wide-open outside jumpers and layups they'll be getting, you're crazy. This team would win 45-50 games with Mike D'Antoni or Nelson coaching them. I really believe that.
(One more note on Doc: Along with Sam Mitchell, he was the co-leader in the "first coach to be fired" sweepstakes even before he botched the Telfair debacle two weeks ago and dropped that historic "I'm not going to form a rotation just because people say you should have a 10-man rotation" quote last week. You can't even say he's on thin ice anymore; we're at the point where he fell through the ice and he's breathing through one of those tiny air pockets waiting for rescuers to pull him out before he freezes to death. If he's still playing 11 guys on a below-.500 team past Thanksgiving, TNT may as well get Doc's measurements and start ordering his TNT blazers.)
Western Conference Breakdown
1. San Antonio: 63-19
2. L.A. Clippers: 56-26
3. Denver: 44-38
4. Dallas: 60-22
5. Phoenix: 54-28
6. Houston: 49-33
7. Utah: 41-41
8. L.A. Lakers: 40-42
9. Sacramento: 39-43
10. Minnesota: 37-45
10. New Orleans: 36-46
12. Golden State: 33-49
13. Seattle: 30-52
14. Memphis: 28-54
15. Portland: 20-62
1st round: Phoenix over Dallas; Houston over Denver; L.A. Clippers over Utah; S.A. over L.A. Lakers.
2nd round: S.A. over Houston; LAC over Phoenix.
West Finals: S.A. over LAC.
32. Bron-Bron and D-Wade
Everything's been said at this point. Well, almost everything. Because there's a hidden subtext to this entire season: Wade won a title last June, LeBron spent the entire summer pretending he was happy for him when you know he was thinking, "Dammit, he got there first!" ... and now we get to see LeBron's official response, immediately followed by Wade's response to LeBron's response, then LeBron's counter-response. ... It's going to be like a game of chicken. True rivalries only work when it's clear that each guy needs the other guy to reach his full potential as a player, so we stumbled into the perfect scenario here: Two precociously talented superduperstars constantly striving for the upper hand and raising each other's games in the process. It's almost too good to be true. These are the days when I miss Ralph Wiley.
33. Tim Duncan
I told you we'd come back to him. As I mentioned earlier, only eight teams can win the NBA title this season as presently constructed. Here they are.
LONGSHOTS
New Jersey: It all depends on Vince. You can understand why I'm dubious.
Houston: Would you bet on Yao and T-Mac holding up through June? Probably not. But at 18-to-1, they're the best longshot bet on the board. By far. You can go to war with Yao, T-Mac, Bonzi and Battier in May and June.
Phoenix: We've been here before with the Suns. They need the 2004 Amare to even consider making a run ... and even then, I don't see them defending anyone when it matters. They're like the Colts of the NBA.
AP Photo/Eric Gay
A healthy, rested Tim Duncan = a very, very dangerous Spurs team.THE CONTENDERS
Cleveland: Put it this way: With that subpar supporting cast, they need an absolutely superhuman effort from LeBron. He'd have to blow some of those MJ years in the late-'80s out of the water. It's just too improbable. Of course, if the Cavs can somehow sneak into the Finals in a subpar conference, and he's getting every call like Wade did last June ...
Miami: A slightly better version of the previous paragraph (and with a better coach).
L.A. Clippers: I have a terrible feeling that they'll be one of those teams that COULD win the title but ends up blowing a series where they have the lead in three of their four losses in the final minute. You know, kinda like last year.
Dallas: Can't shake the notion that they blew their chance last June. I mean, they had it. It was right there. Up by 13, six minutes to go, headed for a sweep. That was their moment. I can't see them being any better or closer to winning. In fact, I see them further away. And why?
THE FAVORITE
San Antonio: Because Dallas would have lost to the Spurs if Ginobili didn't stupidly foul Dirk on that three-point play in Game 7. And that wasn't a great Spurs team -- poor Duncan was hobbling around on one foot. Now he's healthy, he's in great shape, and he's ticked off. And that's all I need to know.
The Pick: San Antonio over Cleveland.