Mecaca's Going Down

[Nbadan]

http://cache.wonkette.com/assets/resources/2006/08/macacasmall.jpg



Democrat Jim Webb has surged ahead of Republican George Allen in the last poll of the campaign, conducted for News-7 by SurveyUSA.

The survey shows Webb with 52% of the likely voters, with 44% going to Allen.

In five previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, the race was a virtual tie with Allen slightly ahead. Other late polls show the race much closer. A Mason-Dixon poll released over the weekend had Webb ahead by a point, and a Gallup poll released today has Allen up by three.

The SurveyUSA poll also shows 42% support for the Marriage Amendment, but with 22% still uncertain over how they'll vote. Thirty-six percent say they'll vote against it.

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Virginia adults from November 3 through November 5. Of them, 840 were registered to vote. Of them, 741 were judged to be "likely" voters. Survey details reflect Likely Voters.

WBDJ (http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=5639356)

This Survey USA poll is great news for Webb, but these polls are all over the place.

We have:

2 which favor Webb
1 which favors Allen
and another one thats tied.

Call your winner. Who takes this race?

[johnsmith]

Am I the only one that laughed a bit at the title of this thread?

[Ocotillo]

Governor Tim Kaine and former Governor Mark Warner have this state figured out. Kaine was at about the same spot in his election a year ago and ended up winning comfortably.

Webb wins Tuesday.

[Nbadan]

Listened to Hannity on the way home. He told audience that he's getting numbers from Rove in that are not looking good for Allen for VA. He is begging his listeners to get out there and vote.

- My DD (http://mydd.com/story/2006/11/7/17589/6455)

[Ocotillo]

^^ I'm working west Texas today where Kay Bailey is considered a flaming liberal and I caught Hannity as well. He is working it hard, begging GOPers to get out and vote. The guy is nothing but free advertising for the GOP.

[Nbadan]

Looks good for Webb so far:

Office: U.S. Senate
Precincts Reporting: 186 of 2443 (7.61%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,856 Total Voting: 141,166 Voter Turnout: 3.10 %

Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
J H Webb Jr Democratic 73,351 51.96%
G F Allen Republican 66,194 46.89%
G G Parker Independent Green 1,503 1.06%
Write Ins 118 0.08%
View Results by District Locality Total: 141,166

Virginia Interactive (http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm)

[Nbadan]

Damn, Macaca is leading Webb with 25.17% reporting

Office: U.S. Senate
Precincts Reporting: 1283 of 2443 (52.52%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,812 Total Voting: 1,146,792 Voter Turnout: 25.17 %


Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 583,153 50.85%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 549,673 47.93%
G G Parker Independent Green 12,825 1.12%
Write Ins 1,141 0.10%
View Results by District Locality Total: 1,146,792

Virginia Interactive (http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm)

[MannyIsGod]

52% reporting dude, the number you quoted was turnout. Its not looking good.

[Nbadan]

62% reporting...not looking good for Webb...


Precincts Reporting: 1502 of 2443 (61.48%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,798 Total Voting: 1,349,329 Voter Turnout: 29.62 %

Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 679,127 50.33%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 653,942 48.46%
G G Parker Independent Green 14,957 1.11%
Write Ins 1,303 0.10%
View Results by District Locality Total: 1,349,329

[Nbadan]

Mi CACA...~80% reporting


Precincts Reporting: 1950 of 2443 (79.82%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,755 Total Voting: 1,786,873 Voter Turnout: 39.22 %

Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 889,307 49.77%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 876,148 49.03%
G G Parker Independent Green 19,736 1.10%
Write Ins 1,682 0.09%
View Results by District Locality Total: 1,786,873

[Nbadan]

Webb's surging....


F Allen Republican 898,328 49.65%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 889,136 49.15%
G G Parker Independent Green 20,000 1.11%
Write Ins 1,685 0.09%
View Results by District Locality Total: 1,809,149

[MannyIsGod]

Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 951,910 49.61%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 943,886 49.19%
G G Parker Independent Green 21,218 1.11%
Write Ins 1,796 0.09%

[PixelPusher]

both sides are murmuring "recount range"

[jochhejaam]

Va Sen [90.14% In]
R- allen 1,025,262 50.05%
D- webb 998,701 48.75%

[MannyIsGod]

I think Allen is going to take it. Now the Democrats really really need Ford Jr to win and thats not going to happen. I think the GOP has to be expecting to keep the Senate, but barely.

[Zunni]

Close. BIG county outside of Richmond not yet counted and went Kerry in 2004, as per CNN graphic and discussion.

[Nbadan]

both sides are murmuring "recount range"

Sounds like there may be a automatic recount no matter who wins,

[Nbadan]

Down to a 12,000 vote lead for Macaca with 94.31% reporting....

Precincts Reporting: 2304 of 2443 (94.31%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,683 Total Voting: 2,164,556 Voter Turnout: 47.51 %

Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 1,075,216 49.67%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,063,284 49.12%
G G Parker Independent Green 23,936 1.11%
Write Ins 2,120 0.10%
View Results by District Locality Total: 2,164,556

[jochhejaam]

Margin still at roughly 12,000 with about 63,000 to be tabulated.

VA SEN [96.81% IN]
R- ALLEN 1,109,958 49.68%
D- WEBB 1,097,561 49.12%


Update:

Margin now under 8,000

VA SEN [97.22% IN]
R- ALLEN 1,112,116 49.57%
D- WEBB 1,104,413 49.23%

[MannyIsGod]

Sick, they're toying with me.

[Zunni]

If it's less than 1%, either way, the projected loser can ask for, and must be granted a recount, per VA law.

[MannyIsGod]

5k!?!?!?!?!??!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[jochhejaam]

Wow! Margin below 5,000 with about 55,000 to be counted.

VA SEN [97.42% IN]
R- ALLEN 1,113,013 49.50%
D- WEBB 1,108,291 49.29%

[Nbadan]

Down to about 3,000 votes for Macaca with 97.67% reporting....

Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage

G F Allen Republican 1,114,969 49.47%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,111,806 49.33%
G G Parker Independent Green 24,907 1.11%
Write Ins 2,225 0.10%
View Results by District Locality Total: 2,253,907

[Nbadan]

Webb within 1500 votes!

Office: U.S. Senate
Precincts Reporting: 2421 of 2443 (99.10%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,672 Total Voting: 2,305,173 Voter Turnout: 50.60 %
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 1,139,550 49.43%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,137,793 49.36%
G G Parker Independent Green 25,567 1.11%
Write Ins 2,263 0.10%
View Results by District Locality Total: 2,305,173

[Nbadan]

According to MSNBC Webb has taken the lead. Confirmation still needed.

[ChumpDumper]

MSNBC has Webb up about 2400

[MannyIsGod]

Dude, you're behind. We knew that in the blog thread a while ago.

[Nbadan]

Precincts Reporting: 2423 of 2443 (99.18%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,672 Total Voting: 2,309,512 Voter Turnout: 50.70 %

Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 1,141,753 49.44%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,139,885 49.36%
G G Parker Independent Green 25,604 1.11%
Write Ins 2,270 0.10%
View Results by District Locality Total: 2,309,512

[ChumpDumper]

Dude, so what?

[Zunni]

Dude, so what?
Dude, that's a vote count lead switch.

[MannyIsGod]

Are CNN and MSNBC transposing shit? WTf??!?!?!?

My head is going to explode and I will be brainless like Tpark. Fuck.

[ChumpDumper]

Dude, I wasn't talking about that. I was talking about making a big deal out of which thread had it first.

[Nbadan]

Here it is...with 99.26% reporting

Office: U.S. Senate
Precincts Reporting: 2425 of 2443 (99.26%)
Registered Voters: 4,555,672 Total Voting: 2,323,715 Voter Turnout: 51.01 %

Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage

J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,148,750 49.44%
G F Allen Republican 1,146,952 49.36%
G G Parker Independent Green 25,719 1.11%
Write Ins 2,294 0.10%
View Results by District Locality Total: 2,323,715

[MannyIsGod]

The difference in Virginia is...

CNN:
Prince William County:
Webb 42,038
Allen 39,700

The VA site:
Prince William County:
Webb: 5,670
Allen: 6,492


The VA site is slow in counting that county.

[ChumpDumper]

:lol CNN is reviewing how many boxes are still out.

It's that close.

[MannyIsGod]

This is insane. The elections I've experienced over the past past 6 years are out of this world in their competitiveness.

[Nbadan]

Allen is speaking...(MSNBC) sounds concession like...

[ChumpDumper]

Allen is speaking...(MSNBC) sounds concession like...Wishful thinking. The lawyers are salivating at the potential billable hours.

[Nbadan]

Blah, he didn't concede. Looks like a recount.

[PixelPusher]

Allen is speaking...(MSNBC) sounds concession like...
basically it's a "hang in there while the count continues...I'm going to bed" speech

[MannyIsGod]

How in the hell could he sleep at a time like this?

[PixelPusher]

How in the hell could he sleep at a time like this?
:lol well, maybe he wont' "go to bed" but he is calling it a night.

[T Park]

How in the hell could he sleep at a time like this?

Take 10 sleeping pills with cognac and snooooozzz


The Lawyers im sure are flocking to Virginia as we speak.

[clambake]

This is like the movie Gung HO. The line is moving too fast. It's too hard to count.

[Nbadan]

The Washington Post is reporting that there are still thousands of absentee ballots left to be counted that could turn this race...

Webb, Allen Race Too Close to Call
Same-Sex Marriage Ban Wins Approval by Substantial Margin
By Timothy Dwyer
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, November 8, 2006; 12:42 AM


Democratic challenger James H. Webb and Republican incumbent George F. Allen were locked in a dead heat in the race to represent Virginia in the U.S. Senate. The race remains too close to call and appears headed for a recount.

At 12:30 a.m., according to unofficial results tallied by the state of Virginia, Webb had a lead of less than 2,000 votes over Allen. With 2,425 out of 2,443 precincts reporting Webb had 1,148,750 votes and Allen had 1,146,952 votes.


Va. U.S. Senate (KEY RACE)
Candidate Votes %
Jim Webb (D) 1,143,756 50
George Allen * (R) 1,141,030 49
Glenda Parker (IG) 25,556 1
Key: * Incumbent | Red Checkmark Winner
Precincts: 100% | Updated: 12:42 AM ET | Source: AP

The race may be decided by absentee ballots. More than 130,000 absentee ballots were requested in the state and those votes were still being counted early this morning.

Webb addressed his supporters gathered in a Tysons Corner Hotel at about 11:10 p.m. and predicted that he would be declared the winner when all the votes are counted.

"We've been following this in great detail," Webb said, "It looks very, very good for our side." He said he expected to pick up votes in the 11th Congressional District in Northern Virginia and that his campaign was confident that he'd do very well when the absentee ballots were counted.

"It's going to take a while, but at some point soon I think we are going to be on top," Webb said.

The ban on same-sex marriage won approval by a substantial margin. With 87.3 percent of the precincts reporting, the amendment had the support of 58.4 percent of voters.

Exit polls conducted for the Associated Press found that Allen drew strong support from religious voters, those who served in the armed forces and from voters who said terrorism was extremely important. Webb was favored by traditional Democratic voting blocs such as women and blacks and by those who believe the Iraq war is an important issue.

The exit polls also showed that the majority of voters disapproved of the war in Iraq and that the U.S. should withdraw some or all troops. Of those voters, the majority favored Webb. Webb also was supported by those who said the war in Iraq was extremely important in their choice for Senate.

The majority of voters said in exit polls that they disapproved of the way President Bush is running the country, and of those, eight of 10 voted for Webb. Four out of 10 voters said Bush was not a factor in how they voted, and the majority of those chose Allen.

Voters who said the economy was an important factor in their vote were split between Webb and Allen, but six out of 10 voters who said the issue of taxes was extremely important favored Allen.

Webb and Allen ended their race neck and neck. Allen, 54, the former popular governor and, until two months ago a potential presidential aspirant, was trying not only to win re-election but to save his political life.

Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/07/AR2006110701150.html)

[Ocotillo]

Mucacca says he's taking this to the Supreme Court where we know the fix will be in. :dizzy :lol

[MannyIsGod]

This is the senate. This is it.

[T Park]

Thousands of aBsentee Ballots out there supposedly.

[Nbadan]

Webb just said he won in a speech. His lead is increasing.

[MannyIsGod]

Dan, tonight I drink and salute you! You win tonight sir.

[Nbadan]

I didn't win. Good won. The People of this nation finally said enough is enough.

[ChumpDumper]

You didn't win any thing. You and the Dimm-O-Craps
think you are so smart with your little midterm elections.
Well let me tell you that Bush won and is still a winner
doesn't that make you mad? Hee-hee! Two more years
and there is nothing you or Land Grab Reid or Nancy
Moussoliniosi can do about it. Good luck when you get
drafted to fight in suburban Miami.

[MannyIsGod]

X-Chump

[Nbadan]

You didn't win any thing. You and the Dimm-O-Craps
think you are so smart with your little midterm elections.
Well let me tell you that Bush won and is still a winner
doesn't that make you mad? Hee-hee! Two more years
and there is nothing you or Land Grab Reid or Nancy
Moussoliniosi can do about it. Good luck when you get
drafted to fight in suburban Miami.

:lmao

where is ray?

[Ocotillo]

:lmao :lmao :lmao

[Nbadan]

County by County breakdown in Virginia of votes still left to be counted..

HERE (http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm)

Absentee ballots count as their own precient, but are falling mostly Webb.

[PixelPusher]

X-Chump
I was gonna include Yonivore's take, but RedState.com hasn't released it's blogging points yet...

[Nbadan]

WEBB up by 0.07 pctage points, w only 13 of 2443 precincts yet to report...

According to NBC News, there still are absentee ballots to be counted tomorrow, many apparently in overwhelmingly pro-Webb Northern Virginia.

If I'm not mistaken, absentee ballots often are treated as virtual precincts of their own within each jurisdictions. Thus I believe 9 of the 13 outstanding precincts consist of absentee ballots.

And, from the Webb/Allen splits in those 9 jurisdictions so far, overwhelmingly in populous Northern Virginia jusrisdictions, Webb's lead is very likely to grow, perhaps beyond the automatic recount mark.

From http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/nov2006/l_02.htm at 1:16 am :

Totals:

Webb 1,152,600 49.43%
Allen 1,151,076 49.36%
Parker (Green) 25,818 1.11%
Write-ins 2,299 0.10%
Totals 2,331,793 2430 of 2443 precincts reporting

Webb percentage among reporting precincts, jurisdiction, and # of outstanding precincts

73 ARLINGTON COUNTY - 1 of 50
72 RICHMOND CITY - 4 of 68
59 FAIRFAX COUNTY - 1 of 229
56 FAIRFAX CITY - 1 of 7
50 LOUDOUN COUNTY - 1 of 58
46 JAMES CITY COUNTY - 2 of 16
46 VIRGINIA BEACH CITY 1 of 87
41 ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY - 1 of 13
40 HALIFAX COUNTY - 1 of 22

[MannyIsGod]

New numbers:

J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,162,004 49.50%
G F Allen Republican 1,157,259 49.30%
G G Parker Independent Green 25,968 1.11%
Write Ins 2,310 0.10%

[MannyIsGod]

Whether or not we go beyond the recount mark, there will be one.

[PixelPusher]

WEBB up by 0.07 pctage points, w only 13 of 2443 precincts yet to report...


A big key will be if the rest of the votes but the percentage above 1/2% for a state funded automatic recount...if it's more than that, Allen can still call for a recount but he has to pay for it.

[MannyIsGod]

He'll pay for it. There will be a recount for sure.

[Melmart1]

He will call for a recount, no doubt in my mind. The GOP will not let that one go w/o a fight.

I just wonder if they will get the 'you lost, get over it' remarks from those who said that about Gore in 2000.

[MannyIsGod]

If he didn't plan on going the recount route, he would have conceded tonight.

[MannyIsGod]

J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,167,053 49.56%
G F Allen Republican 1,159,238 49.23%
G G Parker Independent Green 26,024 1.11%
Write Ins 2,319 0.10%

The lead grows!!!

[Marklar MM]

J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,167,053 49.56%
G F Allen Republican 1,159,238 49.23%
G G Parker Independent Green 26,024 1.11%
Write Ins 2,319 0.10%

The lead grows!!!

Actually Manny, the lead has shrunk. Webb was up by 12,000. Allen gained 4g.

[MannyIsGod]

He was up bay 5k right before this update. I never saw him up by 12k.

[MannyIsGod]

Either way, I'll take an 8k lead :)

[MannyIsGod]

The ballots being counted are absentee ballots from Webb strongholds. They are going to look at provisional ballots tomorrow.

According to MSNBC, the mark is around 11 thousand votes where the state no longer pays for the recount. That'll be extremely dire for the Allen camp.

[Zunni]

The GOP will happily foot the bill for the recount. Bet on that.

[Nbadan]

Another VA precinct (Finally) reports -- 7 left. Webb up a bit by 7,700 votes

[jochhejaam]

Another VA precinct (Finally) reports -- 7 left. Webb up a bit by 7,700 votes
A recount might be worth several hundred votes for one of the candidates, but not 7,000. Webb's the winner here.

[Zunni]

A recount might be worth several hundred votes for one of the candidates, but not 7,000. Webb's the winner here.
That's what they were saying last night. Just last year, there was a recount for the state AG race, decided by less than 300 votes. The lead held up.

[boutons_]

"GOP will happily foot the bill for the recount"

They'll send in Jim Baker in his "I'm-so-serious" black suit, whiter-than-white Texas cracka shirt, and bright red "power tie" to say "We're gonna re-count over and over and over and over and over until we get the count we want" :lol

[Nbadan]

Here is the latest from the state office website with 99.88% reporting

Office: U.S. Senate
Precincts Reporting: 2440 of 2443 (99.88%)

Registered Voters: 4,555,674 Total Voting: 2,366,273 Voter Turnout: 51.94 %
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,172,525 49.55%
G F Allen Republican 1,165,225 49.24%
G G Parker Independent Green 26,190 1.11%
Write Ins 2,333 0.10%
View Results by District Locality Total: 2,366,273

[boutons_]

7200 diff / 2,366,273 totall = 0.3%. I figure the Repugs will demand a full recount.

The Senate will be stuck at 50D - 49R for 10 days are so.

[Nbadan]

Faux News is still calling this race - 'too close to call'

:lol

The 2000 Presidential election was 'too close to call' but it didn't stop them then.

[boutons_]

Warner is saying senators have won elections with smaller margins.

Webb's staff is starting its transition work, "measuring the drapes", etc. :lol

[SA210]

You didn't win any thing. You and the Dimm-O-Craps
think you are so smart with your little midterm elections.
Well let me tell you that Bush won and is still a winner
doesn't that make you mad? Hee-hee! Two more years
and there is nothing you or Land Grab Reid or Nancy
Moussoliniosi can do about it. Good luck when you get
drafted to fight in suburban Miami.
Darn, I missed this one!

:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao @ Chump

Even got X's paragraph form down perfect.

:lol

[MannyIsGod]

According to the Virginia site, there are now 2599 precincts to be recorded.

[Vendetta]

Allen has made my year.

[PixelPusher]

MSNBC and AP is now "calling it" for Webb, based on the expectation that Allen will concede tomorrow.

[Guru of Nothing]

Yes Virginia, there is a Lame Duck.

[judaspriestess]

Good riddance. ba-bye senator macacawitz