The Polls Say...

[Nbadan]

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Your Karl Rove Nerve-center


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The percentage of likely voters who plan to vote for Democrats in Tuesday's congressional elections increased in the past week, and those voters supporting Democrats also seem less likely to change their minds before casting ballots, according to a CNN poll conducted over the weekend.

Democrats hold a 58 percent to 38 percent advantage over Republicans among likely voters in the survey released Monday morning, compared to the 53 percent to 42 percent advantage reflected in the poll a week ago. Pollsters asked people who identified themselves as being likely to vote which party's candidate they would you vote for in their congressional district if the election were being held today.

On this question, the poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In the so-called "poll of polls," which averages the results of five national surveys, the Democrats have a 53 percent to 41 percent margin over the Republicans.

CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/11/06/monday/index.html)

[Nbadan]

Pew is the first to report that Republicans are making any type of gains...

Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign's Final Days
Democrats Hold 47%-43% Lead Among Likely Voters
Released: November 5, 2006


A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.

The survey suggests that the judgment of undecided voters will be crucial to the outcome of many congressional races this year. As many as 19% of voters now only lean to a candidate or are flatly undecided. The Democrats hold a 44% to 35% lead among committed voters. But the race is more even among voters who are less strongly committed to a candidate; those who only lean to a candidate divide almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats (5% lean Republican/4% lean Democrat).

Republican gains in the new poll reflect a number of late-breaking trends. First, Republicans have become more engaged and enthused in the election than they had been in September and October. While Democrats continue to express greater enthusiasm about voting than do Republicans, as many Republican voters (64%) as Democratic voters (62%) now say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election. About a month ago, Democratic voters were considerably more likely than GOP voters to say they were giving a lot of thought to the election (by 59%-50%). As a result, Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats, as is typical in mid-term elections.

The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters.... Currently, Democrats lead by 44%-33% among independent voters....

People Press (http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=295)

[spurster]

NYT says:

Senate

40 Safe Dem.
8 Leaning Dem.
3 Tossup
2 Leaning Rep.
47 Safe Rep.

House

198 Safe Dem.
16 Leaning Dem.
17 Tossup
24 Leaning Rep.
180 Safe Rep.

[Nbadan]

SurveyUSA takes out TWO POLLS on Missouri in a single day: Both show McCaskill ahead


1rst poll has it as follows:
(D) McCaskill: 51%
(R) Talent: 42%

2nd poll has it as:
(D) McCaskill: 50%
(R) Talent: 44%

Survey USA (
http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx)

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[Nbadan]

In Montana..

Burns (R) Trailing Tester (D) By Two
Tester (D) 50% Burns (R) 48%
November 5, 2006
Democrat Jon Tester


In Montana, Senator Conrad Burns (R) has been mounting a furious comeback. While Jon Tester still has a slight edge in the race, the trend has been unmistakably in the GOP direction. After Labor Day, it was Jon Tester (D) by nine over Senator Conrad Burns (R). When October began, it was Tester by seven. Last Wednesday, it was Tester by four. Now, our final Montana poll shows Tester leading by just two points--50% to 48% (see crosstabs).

Ironically, Burns is one candidate who might be helped by the overall GOP weakness this year. If Montana voters have a simple choice between Jon Tester and Conrad Burns, Tester probably wins. However, while Montanans may be ready to fire Burns as their Senator, they're a bit more reluctant to have Democrats take over the Senate. Visits by President Bush and Vice President Cheney this week put that issue squarely before the voters by drawing more attention to the national implications of this race.

The President’s Job Approval rating in Montana is currently at 49%.

Rassmusen Reports (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/November%202006/montanaSenate1104.htm)