New Jersey the state that decides?

[T Park]

According to Strategic Vision, New Jersey is tied 42 42.

Florida supposedly is weak Kerry along with Pennsylvania and Iowa.


Could the election come down to New Jersey??

IF so, is that bad news for Bush???

IMO, yes it is.

[CosmicCowboy]

sure doesn't look good.

[CosmicCowboy]

17:12:21 ET // UPDATE: Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday evening after exit data from big media sources claimed Kerry competitive in key states.... FL Kerry +1 PA Kerry+2-4 OH Kerry+1 WI Kerry+4 MI Kerry+2 NH Kerry +4 // Senate Winners: Martinez FL Thune SD Bunning KY Salazar CO // Losers: Bowles NC Coors Co [But early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], 2000 exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]... Developing...

if this holds Bush is toast no matter what happens in Colorado, New Mexico and Hawaii.

[dcole50]

IF so, is that bad news for Bush???

IMO, yes it is.
In my opinon, yes and no. New Jersey should be a state that Kerry carries, but the Jame McGreevey fiasco and other factors may make potential Kerry voters there less likely to vote or vote the other way. We'll see.

I have a feeling this could be a long night. =/

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

All the early exit polls in 2000 were saying "Bush is toast."

I've already heard through my grapevine that some of the polling numbers are Demo. spin targeted at trying to convince Repubs to stay home.

[CommanderMcBragg]

I agree. WAY to early to make predictions.
Some will vote after work.

[CosmicCowboy]

All the early exit polls in 2000 were saying "Bush is toast."

I've already heard through my grapevine that some of the polling numbers are Demo. spin targeted at trying to convince Repubs to stay home.

I certainly hope you are right...but after CBS/CNN got egg all over their face declaring Florida for Gore (then Bush) in 2000 Strategic Vision has made some major changes to their polling procedures...I am expecting these exit polls to be more accurate than 2000.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Yep, and the chairman of Strategic Vision already came out to the media and offered this...


David E. Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, e-mails:

At Strategic Vision, we have been reviewing and conducting exit polls and do not know where the media reports came from. We are showing a slight advantage for Bush in Florida by 1 point.



So the "exit polls" reported to the media (from where I don't know) showed Kerry up four, when SV itself says Bush + 1.

[CommanderMcBragg]

The only "exit" I'm looking for is Bush's. :)

[CosmicCowboy]

So the "exit polls" reported to the media (from where I don't know) showed Kerry up four, when SV itself says Bush + 1.

daaaaamn!...now ain't THAT some shit?

[NeoConIV]

From the Kerry Spot at NRO:



MIDDLE CHEESE REPORTS IN! [ 5:24 PM]

Here's an update from Middle Cheese:

The "big cheeses" in GOP circles weren't worried by today's nutty exit poll scare. They know the bad, bad history of initial exit polls. In 2000, the first polls showed Bush and Gore even - Bush won by nine points. The 2000 Florida poll showed Gore winning by three, and we all know that ended with a 537 vote Bush win.

Even more glaring, in 2002, the first exit polls showed Wayne Allard down by 10 in the Colorado Senate race. He won by 10.

Catholic vote looks good for the President, particularly in Wisconsin.

Bush is getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote, compared to 35 percent in 2000.

And no, exit polls don't include early and absentee voting. Bush leads these nationwide.

There is total confidence that at the end of the night, Bush will win.

[Yonivore]

I agree. WAY to early to make predictions.
Some will vote after work.
And we all know there are more Republicans with jobs than Demoncrats. ;)