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ducks
06-17-2004, 09:58 PM
This summer in the NBA will be about dysfunction and its consequences. So, naturally, the Los Angeles Lakers will lead a movement that could alter the league's power structure.

If there is a Lakers quake, the entire league should feel it. That's a scary thought for some teams, a promising one for others.

"They will make a move in August to rebuild this basketball club," predicted Lakers Coach Phil Jackson, whose five-year contract runs to the end of June.

In addition to Jackson, two of the Lakers' Fab Four -- Kobe Bryant and Gary Payton -- can be free agents. Another, power forward Karl Malone, became one on Wednesday. Their best player, Shaquille O'Neal, can opt out of his contract after next season, but it's unlikely because he would be fleeing from a $32 million salary in 2005-06.

To examine the impact the Lakers will have, begin with Bryant. He is expected to flirt with several teams, including the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, New York Knicks, Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs. If he chooses to go to another team, the lucky winner becomes an instant championship contender.

If Bryant opts for San Antonio, the Spurs would be talented enough to build a dynasty.

Bryant, accused of sexual assault, also could go to prison. His trial might not begin until September. Even if he were acquitted, his legal troubles might elongate the free-agency process. If a team signs him before a verdict, it probably would have an out clause to protect against paying millions to a man in prison if he were convicted.

The real problem would be a trade. Most teams would have to get a commitment from Bryant, then work out a sign-and-trade deal with the Lakers because they don't have enough cap space to give Bryant maximum dollars. The Lakers have said they would refuse to help out a team in this way.

But if Bryant leaves, they would want something in return because O'Neal plus any all-star would equal a contender.

Bryant, who has squabbled with O'Neal and Jackson, said he wouldn't mind returning to the Lakers. Bryant also wants to have a team built around him, one in which he doesn't have to defer to another player.

"I would not be opposed to playing with them forever," Bryant said. "It's just not up to me. It's not my decision."

Jackson is walking toward the door. After Detroit beat his Lakers and won the NBA championship Tuesday, Jackson said "it's a pretty slim chance" he'll be coaching next season.

Jackson figures to take a year off, as he did after leaving Chicago, and return to coaching with another championship-ready team. He'll slap the triangle on that team -- maybe the Dallas Mavericks, maybe Denver, maybe a team in the Eastern Conference -- and there's another shift in power.

O'Neal's future is open for questioning, too. If Jackson leaves, O'Neal will be upset. He could coexist with Bryant for a few more title runs, but who could coach those massive egos as well as Jackson?

If Bryant and Jackson leave, O'Neal might be looking at a rebuilding situation, especially if the Lakers don't sign and trade Bryant. In that case, it might be best for O'Neal and the Lakers to part. Few teams could afford to offer good value in a trade for O'Neal next season and retain championship pieces around him. He is due $29 million in 2004-05 to go with the $32 million the next season.

Any O'Neal trade likely would occur after next season. Then, perhaps O'Neal would push aside that $32 million guarantee and sign an extension to get, say, $100 million over five years. Such a contract would be more tradable. And O'Neal gets $68 million more out of the deal.

There is a slim possibility O'Neal could go this year. He might demand a trade, or Bryant might demand O'Neal be traded in order to secure his return. If Lakers owner Jerry Buss had to choose, he'd pick Bryant. He said as much during the regular season, which upset O'Neal and Jackson.

"It's going to be a funny summer," O'Neal said. "Everyone's going to take care of their own business and everyone's going to do what's best for them, and I don't know what that entails."

The Orlando Magic could feel these tremors. O'Neal could stay in L.A. and try to woo Tracy McGrady, his good friend. On the other side, McGrady could stay in Orlando and try to woo O'Neal, but that's too dreamy a scenario right now. Or a Shaq-Kobe split could inspire McGrady to team elsewhere with another big man -- Tim Duncan? Jermaine O'Neal? Yao Ming? -- to try to emulate Shaq and Kobe.

We haven't even gotten to Malone's likely retirement and Payton's likely exit to another team (possibly via trade). The Lakers also could watch Horace Grant and Rick Fox retire and Derek Fisher move as a free agent.

This team will be different. This league will be different.

"We've had an incredible run," Bryant said.

A run that ends with a sprint from each other.

Jerry Brewer can be reached at [email protected].
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