Bruce Bowen and the Championship Indicative Stat

[whottt]

I believe I have stumbled upon the key player stat that determines exactly how far the Spurs will go in the post season...and it involves Bruce Bowen.

Observe:

Bruce Bowen steals per game:

YR SPG Playoff Result
01-02 1.1 Lost to the LA Lakers 1-4 in the second round
02-03 0.8 Won NBA Championship
03-04 1.0 Lost to the LA Lakers 2-4 in the second round
04-05 0.7 Won NBA Championship
05-06 1.0 Lost to the Dallas Mavericks 3-4 in the second round

There is a direct correlation between Bruce Bowen's SPG average and the Spurs post season success...when he averages 1SPG or better the Spurs never make it past the second round, when he averages under 1SPG the Spurs never fail to win the championship.

Eerie huh?

It gets even weirder....in the years he averages a steal or more per game, the more total steals and the higher his per game averaged, the quicker the Spurs are defeated in the second round...


In the years Bruce averages under a SPG, the more total steals he has while being under a SPG, the easier the Spurs win in the finals.


Now I know this sounds like a bunch of superstitious nonsense and voodoo...but there is a direct correlation any way you slice it.


It's on Bruce.

And insomnia rules!

[polandprzem]

Someone need to tell Bruce that it is not nice to steal. :nope

[freemeat]

While it might seem that you're on to something here, I have to disagree that there's a direct "correlation". First off, to say the Spurs "never fail to win a championship" when he averages less than 1 SPG is a little misleading, considering it's only happened twice.

Secondly, you have to look at who he's guarding and what the style of play has been in those series. While he did get back up to 1 SPG, in the series against Dallas, I'd argue that it was mostly because of the more up-tempo style that was played. There were more turnovers due to quick passes and good defense.

Foremost, when Bruce does get a steal, it seems that most of the time it creates a fastbreak opportunity. In the '03 win, he had Tony, Speedy and Jackson on the receiving end of that turnover. In the '05 win, Manu was at the top of his game. The in-between years were a bit different. This season, I don't see why more Bruce steals would not result in more easy buckets...hence, this random stat won't hold true very long. It's a coincidence, at best...but not indicitive of Bruce needing to loosen the D at all.

More steals, more D can only help!