Nbadan
11-28-2006, 08:54 PM
Most of you already know that I like Rodriquez, but his failure to go on the attack against a more vunerable Henry Cuellar cost him his seat once already, so why should this go-around against Bonilla be any different? Rodriquez needs a large latino turnout and for Bonilla voters to stay home to have a shot.
Carlos Guerra: Will the Bonilla-Rodríguez runoff hinge on money or issues?
Web Posted: 11/27/2006 11:51 PM CST
San Antonio Express-News
How was the 2006 election different? And will the "big changes" predicted materialize?
Democrats were expected to win a House majority, but with only 15 seats instead of the 29 they got. And the GOP would hold a thin Senate majority, but they lost the six seats Democrats needed.
But isn't it disturbing that only 45 of 435 House seats, and eight of 33 Senate seats were ever really in play? And those numbers grew because of the GOP's scandals.
If turnover in Congress is smaller than it was in Stalin's Politburo, blame incredibly effective electoral technology. Computers can now manipulate immense demographic and voting-behavior databases, and match them to individual voters, their addresses and phone numbers. This data is used in redistricting to protect — or oust — incumbents. And with polling, salient issues are identified and messages crafted to resonate with key voter groups. Contact strategies are crafted to turn out a candidate's base, to win over the undecided and to avoid motivating the opposition.
TV and radio deliver broad messages, and members of key groups are micro-targeted with phone calls or tailored direct mail.
So, on election day, well-funded campaigns already know who will vote and for whom, and who is undecided. It is very expensive, but high-tech campaigns leave little to chance — unless something like a scandal, demographic shift or a backlash destroys the incumbents' enormous advantage.
Monday, many area voters may participate in a very rare election, a congressional toss-up. And when early voting opens that day, U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla and former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodríguez will be treading in uncharted waters.
The incumbent Republican, Bonilla, had expected to run in a district specifically redrawn to reduce Latino voters — only 8 percent of whom voted for him in 2002 — to protect his re-election chances.
But that advantage vanished when the U.S. Supreme Court ordered that 100,000 voters, mostly Latinos, who were removed from his district be restored.
Despite his incumbency, and a multimillion-dollar war chest that paid for carpet-bombing the airwaves with ads touting Bonilla's reclaimed heritage — he failed to win outright and is in a runoff.
Gov. Rick Perry ordered the runoff be held on Dec. 12, el Día de La Virgen de Guadalupe, a religious feast day Latino Catholics celebrate with special activities, sparking indignant outcries.
Rodríguez has run successfully in many of the precincts restored to the district, which now is 61 percent Latino and has a record of delivering 51 percent of the vote for statewide Democratic candidates.
But if Bonilla now has the unexpected disadvantage of having to defend his party's stands on immigration, health care and social services that have made it very unpopular among Latinos, he still has the immense advantage of a $1.6 million campaign kitty to keep saturating the airwaves with his ads.
And if Rodríguez enjoys long-term popular support in the district's restored precincts, he must generate heavy turnouts in those areas on a holiday and also cut into Bonilla's strongholds in the outlying counties. And, Rodríguez must do it with much less money and despite federal laws that seriously limit additional fundraising.
So, whether this race turns on issues or money is now the big unknown. But both candidates have congressional voting records they will probably need to defend.
Stay tuned for the details.
To contact Carlos Guerra
Carlos Guerra: Will the Bonilla-Rodríguez runoff hinge on money or issues?
Web Posted: 11/27/2006 11:51 PM CST
San Antonio Express-News
How was the 2006 election different? And will the "big changes" predicted materialize?
Democrats were expected to win a House majority, but with only 15 seats instead of the 29 they got. And the GOP would hold a thin Senate majority, but they lost the six seats Democrats needed.
But isn't it disturbing that only 45 of 435 House seats, and eight of 33 Senate seats were ever really in play? And those numbers grew because of the GOP's scandals.
If turnover in Congress is smaller than it was in Stalin's Politburo, blame incredibly effective electoral technology. Computers can now manipulate immense demographic and voting-behavior databases, and match them to individual voters, their addresses and phone numbers. This data is used in redistricting to protect — or oust — incumbents. And with polling, salient issues are identified and messages crafted to resonate with key voter groups. Contact strategies are crafted to turn out a candidate's base, to win over the undecided and to avoid motivating the opposition.
TV and radio deliver broad messages, and members of key groups are micro-targeted with phone calls or tailored direct mail.
So, on election day, well-funded campaigns already know who will vote and for whom, and who is undecided. It is very expensive, but high-tech campaigns leave little to chance — unless something like a scandal, demographic shift or a backlash destroys the incumbents' enormous advantage.
Monday, many area voters may participate in a very rare election, a congressional toss-up. And when early voting opens that day, U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla and former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodríguez will be treading in uncharted waters.
The incumbent Republican, Bonilla, had expected to run in a district specifically redrawn to reduce Latino voters — only 8 percent of whom voted for him in 2002 — to protect his re-election chances.
But that advantage vanished when the U.S. Supreme Court ordered that 100,000 voters, mostly Latinos, who were removed from his district be restored.
Despite his incumbency, and a multimillion-dollar war chest that paid for carpet-bombing the airwaves with ads touting Bonilla's reclaimed heritage — he failed to win outright and is in a runoff.
Gov. Rick Perry ordered the runoff be held on Dec. 12, el Día de La Virgen de Guadalupe, a religious feast day Latino Catholics celebrate with special activities, sparking indignant outcries.
Rodríguez has run successfully in many of the precincts restored to the district, which now is 61 percent Latino and has a record of delivering 51 percent of the vote for statewide Democratic candidates.
But if Bonilla now has the unexpected disadvantage of having to defend his party's stands on immigration, health care and social services that have made it very unpopular among Latinos, he still has the immense advantage of a $1.6 million campaign kitty to keep saturating the airwaves with his ads.
And if Rodríguez enjoys long-term popular support in the district's restored precincts, he must generate heavy turnouts in those areas on a holiday and also cut into Bonilla's strongholds in the outlying counties. And, Rodríguez must do it with much less money and despite federal laws that seriously limit additional fundraising.
So, whether this race turns on issues or money is now the big unknown. But both candidates have congressional voting records they will probably need to defend.
Stay tuned for the details.
To contact Carlos Guerra