MajorMike
11-30-2006, 11:19 AM
From MLB.com
Cubs sign utilityman Mark DeRosa to a three-year deal
Winners: None
Neutral: Mark DeRosa
DeRosa, 31, came out of nowhere to post career highs across the board this past season (.296/.357/.456) and play enough games to qualify at second base and outfield in most fantasy leagues. Given his previous eight years of inconsistency as a part-timer, a repeat of such a high level of offensive production in 2007 is highly unlikely. Still, DeRosa's ability to produce on the road indicates that he probably won't regress into his former self, either. Ultimately, the Cubs inked DeRosa to man second base regularly in 2007, so it's his job to lose.
Losers: Roger Cedeno, Ryan Theriot
With Cesar Izturis set to start at shortstop and DeRosa being thrown into the mix at second, both Theriot and Cedeno, who lost a starting job due to his .229 second-half batting average this past season, will be fighting for backup spots in Spring Training.
Reds agree to a two-year contract with reliever Mike Stanton
Winners: None
Neutral: None
Stanton proved to be anything but a typical 39-year-old reliever with the Nationals and Giants this past season. The southpaw somehow managed to fare better on the road than at home despite pitching in two notorious pitchers' parks, allowed fewer earned runs to left-handed bats than right-handed ones and racked up eight saves in the process. His secret? Simply keeping the ball in the park was enough, as evidenced by his two home runs allowed in 77 2/3 innings, a terrific indicator heading into the homer-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. Still, unless the Reds become desperate, don't expect Stanton to match his save total in 2007, as last year's output was more of an environmental coincidence than a reflection of any sort of mound dominance. Look for Stanton to begin his decline as he approaches 40 years of age.
Losers: None
Reds agree to a three-year deal with shortstop Alex Gonzalez
Winners: None
Neutral: Alex Gonzalez
In their aim to piece together a strong defensive unit, the Reds apparently didn't mind Gonzalez's offensive shortcomings. His 23-homer output with the Marlins in 2004 feels like a distant memory, as various injuries combined with a two-year decline in his fly-ball rate seem to have stripped him of his pop. At 29, he's still relatively young, and he'll be starting his home games at homer-happy Great American Ball Park. But health concerns, a career .246 batting average and substandard plate skills really put a cap on his upside. Double-digit homers aren't out of the question, but he's worth selecting only as a last resort, if most everyday shortstops are off the board. He'll partner with athletic second baseman Brandon Phillips to round out Cincinnati's middle infield.
Losers: None
Cubs sign Alfonso Soriano to an eight-year contract
Winners: Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Church, Alex Escobar, Nook Logan
The Cubs now possess arguably the game's most fearsome mid-order trio in Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. Given the club's recent signing of second baseman Mark DeRosa, Soriano likely will stay put as a left fielder. It remains to be seen whether the Dominican Republic native, who became the first 40-homer/40-steal/40-double player in Major League history and drew a career-high 67 walks this past season, will be able to replicate his contract-year output and newfound plate patience, but the move from pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium to Wrigley Field will only help his cause. Don't make the mistake of selecting the 30-year-old slugger ahead of Albert Pujols, but Soriano has entrenched himself as a top five pick and an all-around fantasy stud.
Soriano's departure may finally give the late-blossoming Church the chance to start in the outfield on a daily basis. With little fanfare, Church delivered a stirring .892 OPS in 196 at-bats with the Nationals in 2006. His ability to hit left-handed pitching and swipe more than his share of bags suggests that he's ready for a shot at an everyday spot. If Church is given that opportunity, consider him a late-round sleeper.
The speedy Nook Logan and the athletic Alex Escobar could also factor into the battles for center and left field in Washington, though general manager Jim Bowden may decide to go the external route.
Neutral: None
Loser: Matt Murton
Unless the Cubs decide to mold Soriano into a center fielder, the acquisition probably spells the end of Matt Murton -- he of the .297-13-62 line in 2006 -- as the team's everyday left fielder.
Astros sign starter Woody Williams to a two-year deal
Winners: None
Neutral: None
Losers: Woody Williams
After posting his best ERA in four seasons this past season (3.65), Williams won't have the same margin for error in 2007. The soft-tossing 40-year-old has been aided heavily by pitching his home games in San Diego's spacious PETCO Park, where he had a 2.93 ERA in 2006. In contrast, Williams has been roughed up to the tune of a 5.26 ERA on the road over the last two years, making his arrival to the cozy confines of Minute Maid Park all the more ominous. Add in the fact that he's a fly-ball pitcher, and there's a possible recipe for disaster here. Stay away from Williams in 2007.
Astros ink outfielder Carlos Lee to a six-year contract
Winners: None
Neutral: Carlos Lee
All the cards seemed to fall in Lee’s favor during his 2006 contract year. After cranking 26 first-half homers, he was traded to Texas, where he went on to play in one of the game's top hitters’ parks and raise his batting average to an even .300. The majority of players tend to have their career year during their 20s, though, so paying for another awesome .300-37-116-19 stat line in the form of $30 at an auction or during the second round of a snake draft isn’t recommended.
Still, although he heads into 2007 on the wrong side of 30, Lee is unlikely to regress too far back from this past season’s production, considering he’ll be protected by the mighty Lance Berkman in a home park that features a short left-field porch -- ideal for right-handed sluggers. Given his impressive strides at the plate, improved strikeout rate over the last two seasons and golden five-category production, Lee should be among the first handful of outfielders off the board next season.
Losers: Luke Scott, Chris Burke, Jason Lane
The Astros’ acquisition of Lee likely marginalizes Scott and Lane into part-time right fielders and the talented Burke into a utilityman.
Diamondbacks trade Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas and Greg Aquino to the Brewers for Doug Davis, Dana Eveland and Dave Krynzel
Winners: Miguel Montero, Chris Snyder, Dana Eveland
The Diamondbacks' decision to trade Estrada probably has less to do with their confidence in his long-term potential with than the emergence of Montero as a blue-chip catching prospect. At 23 years old, Montero has shown above-average selectivity at the plate and impressive pop (.515 slugging percentage at Triple-A Tucson) as he's advanced through the farm system. Though he'll likely begin 2007 in a platoon with the 25-year-old Snyder, Montero is a good bet to receive the majority of at-bats as the left-handed-hitting part of the platoon. Given the scarcity of offensive-minded catchers, Montero is well worth keeping an eye on during Spring Training.
Moving to the Diamondbacks is especially more likely to aid the 23-year-old Eveland, whose ground-ball-inducing slider and deceptive fastball will play into the hands of the Arizona's slick infield defense. Eveland has been shuffled between the rotation and the bullpen in the Minors, but the D-backs' lack of left-handed relievers ideally suits him for the 'pen.
Neutral: Doug Davis, Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas, Dave Krynzel, Greg Aquino
Flaunting his great plate coverage, Estrada finished 2006 ranked fourth among qualified National League catchers in batting average (.302), albeit in just 414 at-bats. His low-walk total (13) is a cause for concern, as pitchers may force the aggressive switch-hitter to swing outside of the strike zone next season. Batting in the unimposing Brewers lineup doesn't bode well for another 71 RBIs, either. If Estrada can balance his ability to make consistent contact with just a tad more plate patience, a return to .300 is a feasible possibility.
Just when fantasy managers began trusting Davis, the soft-tossing 31-year-old disappointed in virtually every area this past season. His ERA shot up by more than a run, due in large part to a considerable drop in his strikeout rate and a ballooning walk rate (4.51 BB/9 IP). The lone bright spot heading into 2007 is that the crafty Davis won't have the pressure of getting as many outs on his own in Arizona, as the D-backs defense -- led by Gold Glover Orlando Hudson -- is far better than that of the Brewers. While a turnaround shouldn't necessarily be expected in 2007, it shouldn't come as a surprise, either.
Vargas' main problem this past season wasn't throwing strikes but rather giving up the long ball, as the 27-year-old starter yielded roughly 1.5 homers per nine innings. The good news is that leaving hitter-friendly Arizona, where he sported a 5.60 ERA in 2006, will give Vargas more freedom to throw the high heater without being consumed by "homer-phobia." The bad news? Vargas -- who tossed a career-high 167 2/3 innings this past season -- will miss the days when he could rely on his above-average defense to occasionally bail him out. All in all, expect something similar to his 2006 output in 2007.
New surroundings give the speedy Krynzel and the oft-injured, power-pitching Aquino another shot at turning talent into production, though neither is likely to play a prominent role in most fantasy leagues next year.
Losers: None
Cardinals ink starter Kip Wells
Winner: Kip Wells
Given the proven ability of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan to help "exiled pitchers" reclaim their careers (see Chris Carpenter), Wells stands a good chance to rebound in the St. Louis rotation. At the very least, the 29-year-old right-hander is a good bet to lower his sky-high 6.50 ERA of 2006 in his return to the National League. He'll also be supported by one of best infield defenses of his career, which will likely enable him to rely on his sharp slider and keep him from throwing gobs of pitches, as he did with the Rangers in 2006 (17.55 per inning). Take a late-round flier on Wells in NL-only formats; with better health, he could prove to be a decent bang for the buck.
Neutral: None
Losers: None
Cardinals sign second baseman Adam Kennedy to a three-year pact
Winner: Adam Kennedy
In leaving the Angels for the Cardinals, the 30-year-old Kennedy slides into a more productive lineup, which bodes well for a return to the days of 60-plus runs. However, Kennedy is less likely to approach the .300 batting average he posted during his peak years, unless of course the Cardinals opt to sit him against southpaw pitchers, against whom he batted just .193 this past season. He'll man second base on an everyday basis and likely hit in the lower half of the Cards batting order.
Neutral: None
Losers: None
Brewers sign infielder Craig Counsell to a two-year deal with a club option for 2009
Winner: None
Neutral: Craig Counsell
Following the signing, general manager Doug Melvin indicated that the 36-year-old Counsell is unlikely to assume a full-time spot in the Brewers infield. "His ability to play all infield positions will be extremely valuable," Melvin said. Counsell is a good bet to collect double-digit steals, hit about .250 and earn 300-plus at-bats in 2007, making him relevant solely in NL-only competition.
Loser: Corey Koskie
With Counsell scouring for starts and blue-chip third-base prospect Ryan Braun on the way, Koskie figures to see a reduction in playing time at third, which may lower the already good chance of another disabled-list stint in 2007.
Cubs sign utilityman Mark DeRosa to a three-year deal
Winners: None
Neutral: Mark DeRosa
DeRosa, 31, came out of nowhere to post career highs across the board this past season (.296/.357/.456) and play enough games to qualify at second base and outfield in most fantasy leagues. Given his previous eight years of inconsistency as a part-timer, a repeat of such a high level of offensive production in 2007 is highly unlikely. Still, DeRosa's ability to produce on the road indicates that he probably won't regress into his former self, either. Ultimately, the Cubs inked DeRosa to man second base regularly in 2007, so it's his job to lose.
Losers: Roger Cedeno, Ryan Theriot
With Cesar Izturis set to start at shortstop and DeRosa being thrown into the mix at second, both Theriot and Cedeno, who lost a starting job due to his .229 second-half batting average this past season, will be fighting for backup spots in Spring Training.
Reds agree to a two-year contract with reliever Mike Stanton
Winners: None
Neutral: None
Stanton proved to be anything but a typical 39-year-old reliever with the Nationals and Giants this past season. The southpaw somehow managed to fare better on the road than at home despite pitching in two notorious pitchers' parks, allowed fewer earned runs to left-handed bats than right-handed ones and racked up eight saves in the process. His secret? Simply keeping the ball in the park was enough, as evidenced by his two home runs allowed in 77 2/3 innings, a terrific indicator heading into the homer-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. Still, unless the Reds become desperate, don't expect Stanton to match his save total in 2007, as last year's output was more of an environmental coincidence than a reflection of any sort of mound dominance. Look for Stanton to begin his decline as he approaches 40 years of age.
Losers: None
Reds agree to a three-year deal with shortstop Alex Gonzalez
Winners: None
Neutral: Alex Gonzalez
In their aim to piece together a strong defensive unit, the Reds apparently didn't mind Gonzalez's offensive shortcomings. His 23-homer output with the Marlins in 2004 feels like a distant memory, as various injuries combined with a two-year decline in his fly-ball rate seem to have stripped him of his pop. At 29, he's still relatively young, and he'll be starting his home games at homer-happy Great American Ball Park. But health concerns, a career .246 batting average and substandard plate skills really put a cap on his upside. Double-digit homers aren't out of the question, but he's worth selecting only as a last resort, if most everyday shortstops are off the board. He'll partner with athletic second baseman Brandon Phillips to round out Cincinnati's middle infield.
Losers: None
Cubs sign Alfonso Soriano to an eight-year contract
Winners: Alfonso Soriano, Ryan Church, Alex Escobar, Nook Logan
The Cubs now possess arguably the game's most fearsome mid-order trio in Soriano, Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee. Given the club's recent signing of second baseman Mark DeRosa, Soriano likely will stay put as a left fielder. It remains to be seen whether the Dominican Republic native, who became the first 40-homer/40-steal/40-double player in Major League history and drew a career-high 67 walks this past season, will be able to replicate his contract-year output and newfound plate patience, but the move from pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium to Wrigley Field will only help his cause. Don't make the mistake of selecting the 30-year-old slugger ahead of Albert Pujols, but Soriano has entrenched himself as a top five pick and an all-around fantasy stud.
Soriano's departure may finally give the late-blossoming Church the chance to start in the outfield on a daily basis. With little fanfare, Church delivered a stirring .892 OPS in 196 at-bats with the Nationals in 2006. His ability to hit left-handed pitching and swipe more than his share of bags suggests that he's ready for a shot at an everyday spot. If Church is given that opportunity, consider him a late-round sleeper.
The speedy Nook Logan and the athletic Alex Escobar could also factor into the battles for center and left field in Washington, though general manager Jim Bowden may decide to go the external route.
Neutral: None
Loser: Matt Murton
Unless the Cubs decide to mold Soriano into a center fielder, the acquisition probably spells the end of Matt Murton -- he of the .297-13-62 line in 2006 -- as the team's everyday left fielder.
Astros sign starter Woody Williams to a two-year deal
Winners: None
Neutral: None
Losers: Woody Williams
After posting his best ERA in four seasons this past season (3.65), Williams won't have the same margin for error in 2007. The soft-tossing 40-year-old has been aided heavily by pitching his home games in San Diego's spacious PETCO Park, where he had a 2.93 ERA in 2006. In contrast, Williams has been roughed up to the tune of a 5.26 ERA on the road over the last two years, making his arrival to the cozy confines of Minute Maid Park all the more ominous. Add in the fact that he's a fly-ball pitcher, and there's a possible recipe for disaster here. Stay away from Williams in 2007.
Astros ink outfielder Carlos Lee to a six-year contract
Winners: None
Neutral: Carlos Lee
All the cards seemed to fall in Lee’s favor during his 2006 contract year. After cranking 26 first-half homers, he was traded to Texas, where he went on to play in one of the game's top hitters’ parks and raise his batting average to an even .300. The majority of players tend to have their career year during their 20s, though, so paying for another awesome .300-37-116-19 stat line in the form of $30 at an auction or during the second round of a snake draft isn’t recommended.
Still, although he heads into 2007 on the wrong side of 30, Lee is unlikely to regress too far back from this past season’s production, considering he’ll be protected by the mighty Lance Berkman in a home park that features a short left-field porch -- ideal for right-handed sluggers. Given his impressive strides at the plate, improved strikeout rate over the last two seasons and golden five-category production, Lee should be among the first handful of outfielders off the board next season.
Losers: Luke Scott, Chris Burke, Jason Lane
The Astros’ acquisition of Lee likely marginalizes Scott and Lane into part-time right fielders and the talented Burke into a utilityman.
Diamondbacks trade Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas and Greg Aquino to the Brewers for Doug Davis, Dana Eveland and Dave Krynzel
Winners: Miguel Montero, Chris Snyder, Dana Eveland
The Diamondbacks' decision to trade Estrada probably has less to do with their confidence in his long-term potential with than the emergence of Montero as a blue-chip catching prospect. At 23 years old, Montero has shown above-average selectivity at the plate and impressive pop (.515 slugging percentage at Triple-A Tucson) as he's advanced through the farm system. Though he'll likely begin 2007 in a platoon with the 25-year-old Snyder, Montero is a good bet to receive the majority of at-bats as the left-handed-hitting part of the platoon. Given the scarcity of offensive-minded catchers, Montero is well worth keeping an eye on during Spring Training.
Moving to the Diamondbacks is especially more likely to aid the 23-year-old Eveland, whose ground-ball-inducing slider and deceptive fastball will play into the hands of the Arizona's slick infield defense. Eveland has been shuffled between the rotation and the bullpen in the Minors, but the D-backs' lack of left-handed relievers ideally suits him for the 'pen.
Neutral: Doug Davis, Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas, Dave Krynzel, Greg Aquino
Flaunting his great plate coverage, Estrada finished 2006 ranked fourth among qualified National League catchers in batting average (.302), albeit in just 414 at-bats. His low-walk total (13) is a cause for concern, as pitchers may force the aggressive switch-hitter to swing outside of the strike zone next season. Batting in the unimposing Brewers lineup doesn't bode well for another 71 RBIs, either. If Estrada can balance his ability to make consistent contact with just a tad more plate patience, a return to .300 is a feasible possibility.
Just when fantasy managers began trusting Davis, the soft-tossing 31-year-old disappointed in virtually every area this past season. His ERA shot up by more than a run, due in large part to a considerable drop in his strikeout rate and a ballooning walk rate (4.51 BB/9 IP). The lone bright spot heading into 2007 is that the crafty Davis won't have the pressure of getting as many outs on his own in Arizona, as the D-backs defense -- led by Gold Glover Orlando Hudson -- is far better than that of the Brewers. While a turnaround shouldn't necessarily be expected in 2007, it shouldn't come as a surprise, either.
Vargas' main problem this past season wasn't throwing strikes but rather giving up the long ball, as the 27-year-old starter yielded roughly 1.5 homers per nine innings. The good news is that leaving hitter-friendly Arizona, where he sported a 5.60 ERA in 2006, will give Vargas more freedom to throw the high heater without being consumed by "homer-phobia." The bad news? Vargas -- who tossed a career-high 167 2/3 innings this past season -- will miss the days when he could rely on his above-average defense to occasionally bail him out. All in all, expect something similar to his 2006 output in 2007.
New surroundings give the speedy Krynzel and the oft-injured, power-pitching Aquino another shot at turning talent into production, though neither is likely to play a prominent role in most fantasy leagues next year.
Losers: None
Cardinals ink starter Kip Wells
Winner: Kip Wells
Given the proven ability of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan to help "exiled pitchers" reclaim their careers (see Chris Carpenter), Wells stands a good chance to rebound in the St. Louis rotation. At the very least, the 29-year-old right-hander is a good bet to lower his sky-high 6.50 ERA of 2006 in his return to the National League. He'll also be supported by one of best infield defenses of his career, which will likely enable him to rely on his sharp slider and keep him from throwing gobs of pitches, as he did with the Rangers in 2006 (17.55 per inning). Take a late-round flier on Wells in NL-only formats; with better health, he could prove to be a decent bang for the buck.
Neutral: None
Losers: None
Cardinals sign second baseman Adam Kennedy to a three-year pact
Winner: Adam Kennedy
In leaving the Angels for the Cardinals, the 30-year-old Kennedy slides into a more productive lineup, which bodes well for a return to the days of 60-plus runs. However, Kennedy is less likely to approach the .300 batting average he posted during his peak years, unless of course the Cardinals opt to sit him against southpaw pitchers, against whom he batted just .193 this past season. He'll man second base on an everyday basis and likely hit in the lower half of the Cards batting order.
Neutral: None
Losers: None
Brewers sign infielder Craig Counsell to a two-year deal with a club option for 2009
Winner: None
Neutral: Craig Counsell
Following the signing, general manager Doug Melvin indicated that the 36-year-old Counsell is unlikely to assume a full-time spot in the Brewers infield. "His ability to play all infield positions will be extremely valuable," Melvin said. Counsell is a good bet to collect double-digit steals, hit about .250 and earn 300-plus at-bats in 2007, making him relevant solely in NL-only competition.
Loser: Corey Koskie
With Counsell scouring for starts and blue-chip third-base prospect Ryan Braun on the way, Koskie figures to see a reduction in playing time at third, which may lower the already good chance of another disabled-list stint in 2007.