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View Full Version : Hypothetically speaking, new playoff format might still crumble



zocool16
12-13-2006, 06:05 PM
Maybe one of these days we'll come to a realization, a realization that maybe this new playoff format is still flawed.

The new format has the three division winners and the second-place team with the best record in the conference aligned 1 through 4. Everything seems in order now, there is no expectation of something like last year's gaffe which had the Mavericks and Spurs meeting in the Western Conference Semifinals, right?

For maybe just the nightmares of whoever organizes these new formats, the HOUSTON ROCKETS have become serious playoff contenders(at least up until before McGrady got hurt). With Yao Ming's improved play and its new surrounding cast, it is a serious possibility that 3 teams from the same division, the Western Southwest (The Mavs, the Spurs and the Rockets) might have 60-wins seasons, or at least close.

What's going to happen then if hypothetically we have a division winner with a 45-37 record or something of that sort (let's recall the horrific East Atlantic division)?

Let's let our wild imagination make up a possible scenario at the end of the regular season. This is our standings (hypothetically):

1. Spurs (61-21)
2. Mavs (60-22)
3. Lakers (54-28)
4. Utah (45-37) ...assuming these hadn't been these GREAT Utah Jazz...
5. Rockets (60-22) (mavs own tie-breaker)
6. Suns (53-27)
7. Hornets (43-39)
8. Nuggets (42-40)

Do you see what that would be like? Assuming 1 through 3 get by and 5 beats 4, the Semifinals would stand : 1) Spurs vs. Rockets, 2) Mavs vs. Lakers
Not really fair for the number 1 seed huh?. That could be any of the 3 Texas teams... hypothetically.

Hypothetically speaking though, the best team always wins no matter where they play at, they get through everyone and everything. Hypothetically speaking this is what would have happened this year if not for the amazing run the Jazz is having right now...hey but it's early, there is still a chance this could happen...

...Hypothetically.

May god bless the Jazz.

GINNNNNNNNNNNNOBILI
12-13-2006, 06:10 PM
The new playoff format has nothing to do with the first round, it's all about re-seeding for the 2nd round so the best series is in the WCF instead of WCSF

zocool16
12-13-2006, 06:11 PM
The new playoff format has nothing to do with the first round, it's all about re-seeding for the 2nd round so the best series is in the WCF instead of WCSF

I'm sorry, please enlighten me a little more deeply on this.

Extra Stout
12-13-2006, 06:29 PM
The new playoff format has nothing to do with the first round, it's all about re-seeding for the 2nd round so the best series is in the WCF instead of WCSF
Wrong.

Extra Stout
12-13-2006, 06:55 PM
Statistically, one should expect that the top two teams will come from the same division in one of the conferences once every 5 seasons.

Make that the top three teams and you are talking once every 23 seasons.

For the case where one division has the top three records, and another division has no teams in the top five, as per the hypothetical case laid forth by the thread starter, that should happen once every 271 seasons.

GINNNNNNNNNNNNOBILI
12-13-2006, 07:22 PM
Wrong.

Yea, I just looked it up.. I was wrong, why does the NBA make things harder than they should be?

ShoogarBear
12-13-2006, 10:32 PM
Statistically, one should expect that the top two teams will come from the same division in one of the conferences once every 5 seasons.

Make that the top three teams and you are talking once every 23 seasons.

For the case where one division has the top three records, and another division has no teams in the top five, as per the hypothetical case laid forth by the thread starter, that should happen once every 271 seasons.I didn't confirm your math, but I agree that your basic logic is correct.

Except for one nitpick. You're assuming that every team starts each season with an equally strong chance at the #1 seed. We know that isn't true, given that the only teams that have gotten the #1 seed since 1999 are LA, SA, and PHX (unless SAC got it one year, but I don't think so).

In real life, the current unequal distribution of strength will change only a little from year to year, so the odds are realistically somewhere shorter than for the perfect scenario you calculated.

Spurminator
12-13-2006, 10:47 PM
Why would the Spurs play the Rockets in that scenario?

Wouldn't they play the Lakers after the re-seed?

zocool16
12-14-2006, 12:24 AM
Why would the Spurs play the Rockets in that scenario?

Wouldn't they play the Lakers after the re-seed?


nope the brackets would match them up with the rockets. The records affect the seedings but not the brackets.

FromWayDowntown
12-14-2006, 12:36 AM
For whatever it's worth, SAC had the West #1 seed in 2002 (hence, Game 7 of the WCF at Arco that year)

Nashfan
12-14-2006, 12:58 AM
By the way, I think it is funny that you have the Lakers and Rockets winning more games than the Suns this year. What drug are you on? :lol

zocool16
12-14-2006, 01:07 AM
By the way, I think it is funny that you have the Lakers and Rockets winning more games than the Suns this year. What drug are you on? :lol

Hypothetically... hypothetically... lol

TDMVPDPOY
12-14-2006, 01:09 AM
the seeding should go by team standings, no team with a low record that wins their division deserves a seeding over another team that has a higher team record in another division

z0sa
12-14-2006, 09:35 AM
Except for one nitpick. You're assuming that every team starts each season with an equally strong chance at the #1 seed. We know that isn't true, given that the only teams that have gotten the #1 seed since 1999 are LA, SA, and PHX (unless SAC got it one year, but I don't think so).

Minnesota got the #1 seed in 2004 along with Sacramento in 2002.