View Full Version : I'm dreaming of a White Christmas....
MannyIsGod
12-18-2006, 07:56 AM
And for right now, thats all it is. But remember a couple of years ago when the models were forcasting snow over a week out? I didn't think there was a chance in hell the models would hold up but low and behold most of South Texas got snow. Well, check this out:
THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND COULD BE A WINTERY MIX FOR THE
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE GFS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/gfs.htm) AND ECMWF (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/ecmwf.htm) BRING ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROF SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS TEXAS. THE THICKNESS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/thick.htm) VALUES FALL BELOW 546 DAM CHRISTMAS
EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. A COLD FRONT (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/front.htm) WILL ALSO MOVE THRU
THE CWFA (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/cwfa.htm) SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.
THIS FROPA (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/fropa.htm) WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR AT THE SFC (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/sfc.htm)...WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT. THESE FACTORS WOULD PRODUCE A WINTERY MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE HILL COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AS ALWAYS WITH A FCST SEVEN DAYS OUT...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
MAY CHANGE...BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. EL NINO WINTERS FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WINTER PRECIP EVENTS.
MannyIsGod
12-18-2006, 07:58 AM
What I find really interesting this time around is that 2 major models are picking up on the forecast. The GFS is the best model we have, but it doesn't do great with Wintery weather in South Texas. However, the ECMF seems to do better and its forecasting the same thing. It would be pretty cool if it happened.
MannyIsGod
12-18-2006, 07:59 AM
(pun not intended)
exstatic
12-18-2006, 08:20 AM
Saturday night? You folks be careful getting home from Kori's...
phyzik
12-18-2006, 08:36 AM
hah... if it rains/snows on or around Christmas, I know I wont be driving..... Not because Im afraid of the weather...... Im afraid of San Antonio drivers in that weather.
A 40mph wind forces people to slow down to 50mph here. :lol
PhotoShop
12-18-2006, 10:12 AM
http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p55/RackTheMouse/club-blizzard.gif
Sigmund Freud
12-18-2006, 10:15 AM
Snow in SA? Manny really is living in a dream world.
http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p55/RackTheMouse/snow-club.gif
:lmao
:lol @ Frost Bit Mouse and Christmas Hat Looter
SpursWoman
12-18-2006, 10:41 AM
A mousecicle! :lmao
CubanMustGo
12-18-2006, 11:10 AM
Snow in SA? Manny really is living in a dream world.
I guess that being as old as you are, Siggy, you already forgot about the great Christmas Eve Snow Event of 2004 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Christmas_Eve_Snowstorm) which brought substantial amounts to places like Victoria, Corpus Christi, and even some to Brownsville. If it can happen there, it could happen in SA.
JoeChalupa
12-18-2006, 11:53 AM
I miss having a white Christmas.
But I don't miss shoveling snow one bit.
How come it can snow in Texas, but not in California?????????
T Park
12-18-2006, 11:55 AM
It would be nice, but unfortunately all the snow would fall in the hill country and the city will just be plain cold.
Its a nice wish, but prob we city commoners will never see it.
ShoogarBear
12-18-2006, 12:10 PM
I'm dreaming of a White Christmas....
Elitist.
Johnny_Blaze_47
12-18-2006, 12:10 PM
It would be nice, but unfortunately all the snow would fall in the hill country and the city will just be plain cold.
Its a nice wish, but prob we city commoners will never see it.
We had a flurry on that following Valentine's Day.
If it's snowing when things break up @ Kori's, I'll walk home.
ShoogarBear
12-18-2006, 12:11 PM
Damn, mouse has gotten scary good with the 'Shop skilz.
Damn, mouse has gotten scary good with the 'Shop skilz.
Props to Mouse :clap
Johnny_Blaze_47
12-18-2006, 02:14 PM
Why's it gotta be a "white" Christmas, you racist?
ShoogarBear
12-18-2006, 02:21 PM
We're having a high of 75 today in DC, and it's supposed to be 50s through the weekend.
I will be super-pissed if it's colder in SA than it is here when I'm home. :guin
MosesGuthrie
12-18-2006, 02:47 PM
Keep dreaming. :)
Why's it gotta be a "white" Christmas, you racist?
HEY JB YOUR ASIAN BROTHER WON SURVIVOR LAST NIGHT :clap
HE BEAT OUT MY SPIC BROTHER "OZZY"
CrazyOne
12-18-2006, 03:31 PM
Rack the Mouse... I'm just glad I'm inside where it's warm...
Shelly
12-18-2006, 04:47 PM
How come you can have Earthquakes in California, but not in Texas?????????????
You can, the faults just aren't active.
one day...
CubanMustGo
12-18-2006, 05:16 PM
How come it can snow in Texas, but not in California?????????
Dude, you have these things called MOUNTAINS. Look up Mammoth Mountain if you want to find some snow. Hell, there are even mountains north of the LA basin that get snow several times a year.
Shelly
12-18-2006, 05:24 PM
Dude, you have these things called MOUNTAINS. Look up Mammoth Mountain if you want to find some snow. Hell, there are even mountains north of the LA basin that get snow several times a year.
It can snow farther south than Mammoth. Even Saddleback Mountain gets snow occasionally
MannyIsGod
12-18-2006, 05:29 PM
Latest dicussion. Looks like the GFS is having the usual trouble but the rest of the models are picking up the wintery mix. Still a long way out and it'll more than likely change, but hey it doesn't hurt to dream.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER MORE AND THE
GFS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF AN OFF-RUN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS.
SO...STILL A CHANCE FOR WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS EVE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.
THEN...CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
CHANCES OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...MAINLY OVER THE SAME AREAS BUT
POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST A LITTLE FARTHER EAST INTO AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE ESCARPMENT.
Jackie
12-18-2006, 05:29 PM
http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p55/RackTheMouse/club-blizzard.gif
The snow won't stop your new KIA from starting. :)
Shelly
12-18-2006, 07:30 PM
Steve Browne is thinking the same way you are, Manny.
Maclovio Manny is way better than Steve Brown
01Snake
12-19-2006, 02:26 PM
It can snow farther south than Mammoth. Even Saddleback Mountain gets snow occasionally
Wow! Blast from the bast. I use to live near Saddleback Mountain.
angel_luv
12-19-2006, 02:46 PM
:lol Nice photoshop work. :)
Shelly
12-19-2006, 02:52 PM
Wow! Blast from the bast. I use to live near Saddleback Mountain.
I'm from OC originally. My parents live in San Juan Capo and my husband grew up in Mission Viejo.
TheSanityAnnex
12-19-2006, 02:58 PM
How come it can snow in Texas, but not in California?????????
It doesn't snow in California? I believe it may have snowed once at Mammoth, and possibly once at Tahoe. I could be wrong though.
TheSanityAnnex
12-19-2006, 03:00 PM
It can snow farther south than Mammoth. Even Saddleback Mountain gets snow occasionally
Even further south than that is Palomar Mountain, North San Diego County. I used to hike up there with my buddies and snowboard when there was a decent winter.
Shelly
12-19-2006, 03:02 PM
Even further south than that is Palomar Mountain, North San Diego County. I used to hike up there with my buddies and snowboard when there was a decent winter.
I've never heard of that mountain. Where is it exactly?
01Snake
12-19-2006, 05:43 PM
I'm from OC originally. My parents live in San Juan Capo and my husband grew up in Mission Viejo.
Too funny. I was born in Mission Viejo and lived there until my freshman year of high school.
Shelly
12-19-2006, 05:51 PM
small world :)
01Snake
12-19-2006, 06:03 PM
small world :)
No kidding! I lived close to Newhart Elementry. We had an awesome view of Saddleback Mtn and I do remember seeing snow on it sometimes.
I went back to OC a few years ago for the first time in 10 years and could not believe how it had changed. Crazy!
Shelly
12-19-2006, 06:12 PM
I'll be there on Friday. We go back every Christmas and it changes more and more each time I go back.
My mil lives around Alicia/Trabuco. I went to Dana Hills.
MannyIsGod
12-19-2006, 06:21 PM
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANYWHERE FROM A
555DAM TO A 565DAM 500MB LOW...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY FOR OUR
FORECAST WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD BETWEEN LIQUID
OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THIS FORECAST...BUT FELT IT NECESSARY TO AT LEAST MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW FOR OUR NW THIRD SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
OUR EASTER HALF SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST.
Its a razors edge right now. Just depends on exactly how cold that air is.
it usually doesn't snow that much where i am
but i got more than a foot a few weeks ago
And for right now, thats all it is. But remember a couple of years ago when the models were forcasting snow over a week out? I didn't think there was a chance in hell the models would hold up but low and behold most of South Texas got snow. Well, check this out:
Just send some damn rain :(
MannyIsGod
12-23-2006, 05:43 AM
Well, if we get anything we'll get sleet it looks like. The Hill Country might see snow though.
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS TIME
THE PROJECTED TRACK TODAY IS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS BUT NOT UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TODAY WILL BE A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DAY WITH HAIL. THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SUPERCELLS AND
LARGE HAIL SOUTH OF A COTULLA TO VICTORIA LINE. BUT IF THE TRACK
CHANGES JUST A BIT, SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NOTICED IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THEREFORE, WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. TONIGHT, THE SLOW
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW DRY AIR TO FILTER IN WHILE THE
RAINS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE FROM ABOVE. THE FREEZING
LEVEL IS NOW EXPECTED TO FALL ONLY TO 3THSD FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL,
THUS THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ON THE WAY DOWN. THICKNESS
VALUES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF SLEET WITH THE RAIN SPREADING
EAST ACROSS INTERSTATE 35 SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
WE WILL SEE A BEAUTIFUL SUNSET SUNDAY NIGHT. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH AND BRING A
FEW FLURRIES TO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER, THE AIR WILL BE SO
DRY BELOW THE CLOUD LEVEL, NO SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. BY
THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND BRINGS
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THIS ONE MAY WIND UP COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SLEET AND COLD RAIN, BUT HOLDING OFF ON MENTIONING SLEET FOR NOW.
Slomo
12-23-2006, 05:52 AM
http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p55/RackTheMouse/club-blizzard.gifI can't believe I missed this! :lol
Good job, but you should've put yourself indoors :lol
MannyIsGod
12-24-2006, 06:45 PM
Chance of flurries late tonight.
MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
SPRINKLE OR FEW SNOW FLURRIES AS FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH. STILL
EXPECTING VFR WITH CIGS 070-100 THROUGH 00Z TUE. MAIN CONCERN
BEHIND FRONT WILL BE NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30KTS FROM 14Z-00Z. BY 00Z TUE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2026 vBulletin Solutions Inc. All rights reserved.