ambchang
12-26-2006, 09:52 PM
Since for as long as I can remember, there has always been talk about how certain players are getting preferential treatment from the referees, and it always comes down to people refuting by saying Player A has the same number of FTAs as Player B, thus there is no preferential treatment, I tend to disagree.
Afterall, a player who shoots lots of jumpers SHOULD have less contact when shooting, thus less FTA, than a player who drives into the paint a lot.
I am taking this hypothesis to make a model.
I will take the shooting data (courtesy of 82games.com) of ALL the players in the 05-06 regular season, and run a model to predict how many FTA a player should have based on how often he shoots inside and outside. After this model is created, I will use it to predict how many FTA's each player should shoot, and see the difference between actual and predicted FTA per 48 minutes, then rank those players.
I will use the same model to predict playoff numbers.
And yes, I do know that players like Shaq and other poor FT shooting superstars may have a higher number of FTAs based on intentional fouls, but I am not ready to put in FT% as a predictor.
The forum should expect the model, and some sort of findings by mid-January (I don't have all day sitting there and typing out stats in the spreadsheet, you know).
Afterall, a player who shoots lots of jumpers SHOULD have less contact when shooting, thus less FTA, than a player who drives into the paint a lot.
I am taking this hypothesis to make a model.
I will take the shooting data (courtesy of 82games.com) of ALL the players in the 05-06 regular season, and run a model to predict how many FTA a player should have based on how often he shoots inside and outside. After this model is created, I will use it to predict how many FTA's each player should shoot, and see the difference between actual and predicted FTA per 48 minutes, then rank those players.
I will use the same model to predict playoff numbers.
And yes, I do know that players like Shaq and other poor FT shooting superstars may have a higher number of FTAs based on intentional fouls, but I am not ready to put in FT% as a predictor.
The forum should expect the model, and some sort of findings by mid-January (I don't have all day sitting there and typing out stats in the spreadsheet, you know).