The zebras really aren't that bad.

[ambchang]

The verdict is in, the zebras, at least in last year’s playoffs, are not biased, and I hope that this can put the conspiracy theories to death.
I ran a model (similar to the model I ran earlier for the regular season) to predict the number of FTAs a player should get based on the number of perimeter shots, shots in the paint, dunks, tips and 3pters. After the model was run, I decided to take out 3pters and tips, because statistically, these two factors do not show that they are significant.
What I found was a little surprising, to say the least.
The teams that “suffer” most from a lack of calls are Phoenix, Cleveland, and LA Clippers. Phoenix could be easily explained by their style of play, but I was surprised by Cleveland as the team that suffered the 2nd most out of all 16 playoff teams, with about 6 less FTs attempted than expected per game, given their style of play, and the presence of one LeBron James.
Chicago being the top beneficiary of the calls was just as surprising, perhaps it was due to the physical nature of the Miami series, where calls are a frequent occurrence.
All the teams that faced Phoenix saw their expected FTAs in the negatives, which is not surprising given the no foul policy by Mike D’Antoni, as well as the higher than expected number of layups and dunks from fastbreaks.

Team GP Dif Total Dif / Game
CHI 6 34.69343 5.782238378
WAS 7 38.57245 5.510349997
MIA 23 116.1622 5.050528628
SAS 20 56.14845 2.807422328
DET 23 57.50887 2.500385631
IND 13 29.37893 2.259917562
MEM 23 18.21389 0.791908243
SAC 22 6.738917 0.306314406
NJN 22 -0.6626 -0.030118141
DEN 23 -23.4917 -1.021376141
LAL 23 -26.5326 -1.153591394
DAL 23 -34.552 -1.50226194
MIL 20 -44.6722 -2.233608036
LAC 17 -53.5584 -3.150496763
CLE 8 -49.2999 -6.162481683
PHO 13 -124.648 -9.588288725

From an individual standpoint, I took the players that have less than 5 FTAs, and ranked them according to the difference between actual and predicted FTs, and projected it to 48 minutes. Shockingly, none of the first seven players are what you would qualify as superstars. Dirk Nowitzki, the player often cited as the player that got an unreasonable amount of FTs by Spurs fans, ranked 16th out 126 players, Manu Ginobili, the player who was accused by non-Spurs fan as a flopper, ranked 15th out of the bunch. At the same time, NBA-darling Dwayne Wade ranked a lowly 24th of the bunch, while LeBron James couldn’t even get into the top 40. Remember, players such as Jannero Pargo, David Harrison, and Reggie Evans all finished higher than these superstars, and I doubt that the league wants Chicago, Indiana or Seattle to win the championship, nor can these players bring in significant revenue from their jersey sales.

Name FTA PFTA Dif Total Dif / 48 min
David Harrison 12 3.911056 8.088944448 12.52481721
Reggie Evans 18 2.12208 15.87791999 11.04550956
Hakim Warrick 14 6.892516 7.107483502 7.933935072
Ronny Turiaf 6 2.12208 3.877919993 7.445606386
Dahntay Jones 10 3.092019 6.907981312 7.208328326
Jannero Pargo 5 2.467067 2.532932876 6.398988319
Nazr Mohammed 18 6.335407 11.66459263 5.956387727
Gilbert Arenas 70 41.59818 28.40182008 4.80030762
Alonzo Mourning 42 20.77198 21.228023 4.528644906
Derek Anderson 8 2.032398 5.967601611 4.340073899
Brendan Haywood 25 11.40765 13.59235251 4.209244648
Chauncey Billups 116 59.19705 56.80294868 3.86195685
Tyson Chandler 10 1.637111 8.362889333 3.859795077
Corey Maggette 67 43.57032 23.42967883 3.851454054
Manu Ginobili 87 54.73124 32.26876177 3.635916819
Dirk Nowitzki 229 154.6723 74.32771153 3.633126429
Robert Horry 26 9.690812 16.30918826 3.479293496
Michael Redd 46 32.57024 13.42975719 3.465743791
Tim Duncan 131 96.6815 34.31850433 3.341355391
Jermaine O'Neal 53 38.08046 14.91954075 3.315453499
Kevin Martin 29 15.92708 13.07292416 3.185281013
Austin Croshere 18 6.468767 11.53123264 3.162852382
Maurice Evans 16 9.428389 6.571610883 3.123141806
Dwyane Wade 250 190.6534 59.34664581 2.970426485
Anderson Varejao 37 22.62316 14.37683749 2.899530249
Carmelo Anthony 52 41.4074 10.5925978 2.634428468
Sasha Vujacic 11 4.406944 6.593055515 2.453229959
Kirk Hinrich 42 30.23938 11.76062492 2.41243588
Ben Wallace 66 34.54372 31.45628083 2.34821381
Vladimir Radmanovic23 11.14572 11.85428024 2.313030291
Eddie Jones 15 9.328283 5.671717208 2.287751479
Lamar Odom 45 30.72054 14.27945805 2.18284709
Vince Carter 108 89.3234 18.6765987 1.992170528
James Posey 37 13.52076 23.47923926 1.856677899
Jason Collins 22 10.79411 11.2058896 1.775190431
Shaquille O'Neal 182 155.8887 26.11133997 1.651310038
Erick Dampier 44 28.59221 15.40778824 1.629017259
Sam Cassell 68 54.73173 13.26827395 1.576428588
Ben Gordon 37 29.08627 7.913729305 1.550444925
Andres Nocioni 35 27.75331 7.246691815 1.512353074

So there you have it, this is as scientific as I can get with the available data, and even though I am aware of the short comings of leaving out style of play in the analysis, this is as detailed as I can get. If anybody can supply me with the raw data of individual series (numbers such as FTA, 3pters taken, perimeter shots taken, paint shots taken, tips and dunks broken down by individual players), I am more than happy to run the analysis.

[Solid D]

Very interesting statistics. I'll have to absorb these a bit. I see quite a few guys in the list who are adept at drawing contact, whether by their physical nature or their craftiness.

Very interesting indeed....

[dbestpro]

You must have had input on the BCS. You apply too many assumptions. For instance I can tell you that people who are left handed tend to get fouled more than right handed people. That is just another assumption.There are a lot of reasons why calls go one way or another. Why don't you try to do a model based on aggressiveness and whining. These seem to be the two most prominent factors.

[Das Texan]

biased title.


just because the refs arent biased doesnt mean they are good....

[ChumpDumper]

Anyone seen the referee show on NBAtv? It's mildly interesting.

[RonMexico]

Suns' style doesn't just inhibit their ability to get to the line. A lack of inside presence last post-season was a factor too. I think the addition of Amare could change that a little bit this year.

Nash gets very few calls unfortunately, and I don't know how he has to start flopping to get to the line more (a la Devin Harris/Jason Terry).

[boutons_]

"referee show"

Officiating 101? or whatever it's called. I find it entertaining. Ronnie Nunn admitted the ref was in a wrong position to make call, at the end of the Pistons game a couple night ago, and made the wrong call.

[The Truth #6]

Does it seem like the refs aren't calling the quick technicals like they were in the first few weeks? I actually liked it because it hinted at having some form of level playing field. Now, it seems like its back to the way things were.

[dirk4mvp]

Suns' style doesn't just inhibit their ability to get to the line. A lack of inside presence last post-season was a factor too. I think the addition of Amare could change that a little bit this year.

Nash gets very few calls unfortunately, and I don't know how he has to start flopping to get to the line more (a la Devin Harris/Jason Terry).


You're crying and bitching pours into other threads as well. :cry :cry

[reydawg]

What was your level of significance? 5%?

What were the p-values?

[ambchang]

You must have had input on the BCS. You apply too many assumptions. For instance I can tell you that people who are left handed tend to get fouled more than right handed people. That is just another assumption.There are a lot of reasons why calls go one way or another. Why don't you try to do a model based on aggressiveness and whining. These seem to be the two most prominent factors.

There are some assumptions in the model, of course, and the major one is that the relationship is actually linear. I looked at the residual plots and it seems to pretty close, but then again, the model can't be perfect. Again, with a multiple R of .92, I really can't ask for too much more.
The purpose of the model is to show that whining has little, if anything to do with calls. Jump shot attemps, Dunk attempts and paint attempts explains most of FTAs, and aggressiveness was defined in the dunk attempts and paint attempts. Again, this is an assumption of mine.

[ambchang]

Suns' style doesn't just inhibit their ability to get to the line. A lack of inside presence last post-season was a factor too. I think the addition of Amare could change that a little bit this year.

Nash gets very few calls unfortunately, and I don't know how he has to start flopping to get to the line more (a la Devin Harris/Jason Terry).
Well, the lack of inside presence is explained in the model (attempts in the paint and dunk attempts). The reason the Suns get so much fewer actual attempts than their predicted FTA is because they run a lot. Running creates open layups and dunks (which leads to higher predicted FTAs), but doesn't really give FTAs because people are rarely fouled when they run. (And 1s do happen, but not too often, and I did not incorporate fouled shot attempts because I don't have the data.)

[ambchang]

What was your level of significance? 5%?

What were the p-values?

I had a 95% CI, and I can't recall the P-Values off the top of my head, but they were like 1E-10 or lower. Tips had a 0.98, and 3 pta had something like a 0.2 or something, so I took them off.

[reydawg]

I had a 95% CI, and I can't recall the P-Values off the top of my head, but they were like 1E-10 or lower. Tips had a 0.98, and 3 pta had something like a 0.2 or something, so I took them off.

Gotcha. Did you try the square of any of those variables? I'd be interested to know if there's any non-linear significance to any of them. For example, if FTA tends to increase disproportionately with FGA (like if the expected increase in FTA between 3 & 4 FGA is less than the expected increase between 7 & 8 FGA).

This might be one way of seeing if high-volume shooters tend to get more than their fair share of FTA's.

[T Park]

The refs havent been good since about 95.

:lol

The refs arent bad Good lord..

[dav4463]

Referees take a lot of pride in their game too. I'm sure they all talk behind Salavatorre's back "he calls too tight!".., etc.... but they all try to do their best and that's all you can ask for isn't it? Sure some are better than others, just like some players are better than others. Some may hold a grudge for a while...they are human. It's about game management more than getting every single call perfect...especially in the NBA where every call is looked at in slo-mo from every possible angle. The NBA has to be the hardest game in the world to officiate and EVERY TEAM thinks they are getting screwed ALL THE TIME.

The only time I've seen a blatant screw job was the Spurs getting screwed vs.Dallas last year ! :lol

[phyzik]

I think its not so much who gets more fouls and who gets less, but the reasoning behind the fouls thats in question.

One guy gets hammered alot and barely gets a call, where another gets a gust of air that ruffles his hair and the refs are quick to jump on it.

Interesting stat none the less.... I'd be curious to see individual ref stats. possibly Salvatore stats per team.