johngateswhiteley
01-07-2007, 09:04 AM
The very best of the mids
posted: Friday, January 5, 2007 | Print Entry
We should all think carefully, redefine our terms and become more precise. The term "upset" doesn't always apply to the traditional little guy beating the traditional big guy. Mid-Major doesn't mean lesser ability and major doesn't mean superiority.
We need to look closely at teams, and look beyond their records, to determine which teams can really play and which teams cannot. We need to look at who you play, where you play, and how you play, and the circumstances of each game relative to the college basketball landscape.
We need to watch the games. The scores can tell us some important things, but far from everything.
When you watch teams play, and really evaluate them from their performance over time, it becomes clear that there are a lot (precise definition of "a lot": very many; a large number) of teams from non-power conferences or traditional one bid leagues that can play. A lot of non-power conference teams can beat a really good power conference team on a given day. If the stronger, more powerful team does not play its best, and does not come into the game mentally and physically prepared to play and compete at the highest level, there are a lot of teams out there that play in non-power conferences that can win against a really good power conference team.
I think most everyone agrees with that point. With the 3-point shot, differing levels of experience at majors and mid-majors in a given year, and the level of talent dispersed around the country with the reduction in scholarships, there are a lot of teams that are competitive at the higher levels from year to year.
Some would argue that there are several non-power conference teams that can compete favorably, game in and game out, with the very best power teams in the country. I don't agree. "Several" is defined as more than two or three, but less than "many." There are more than just several teams that can compete favorably with the upper echelon teams in college basketball.
I believe there is an array (precise definition: a large and impressive grouping) of non-power conference teams that are good enough to beat the best power conference teams in the country. This array consists of a dozen teams that can compete favorably at home, on the road and on a neutral floor with the very best teams in the nation. If any team from this array wins a game, it is probably not an upset. Really good teams usually don't "upset" other really good teams. They just beat them. The following teams, in my judgment, have a chance to win, and can win, against anyone out there:
Butler: The Bulldogs have really good guards and a good experience level, and if you foul this team, it will knock down its free throws. A.J. Graves is an outstanding shooter who can really find openings. He also leads the team in steals. Mike Green leads the team in rebounding and assists, and Brandon Crone can play inside and out. Butler has beaten Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee, Gonzaga and Purdue, and there are few teams, if any, that Butler cannot beat. Will the Bulldogs get clipped a few times in the Horizon League? Probably, but this team will be in the NCAA Tournament, and can win there.
Air Force: The Falcons were good last year and were an NCAA team. This year, Jeff Bzdelik's team is better. The Falcons have won on the road at Stanford and Colorado, and beat Texas Tech, Wake Forest and Long Beach State on neutral floors. I am not suggesting that this is a Murderer's Row of college basketball, but it is clear that Air Force is a quality team. Dan Nwaelele, Jacob Burtschi and Nick Welch are all quality performers who are hard to guard.
Gonzaga: The Zags play as ambitious a nonconference schedule as anyone, and Mark Few almost must do that in order to prove just how good his team really is. So far, Gonzaga has played North Carolina, Butler, Duke, Texas, Washington State and Georgia away from home, and also traveled to play at Virginia before opening up West Coast Conference play. Gonzaga's 9-5 record is still pretty stout, and this team can be in the Sweet 16 as easily as was last year's version.
Nevada: This is a veteran team with quality parts. Nick Fazekas is the marquee performer, and if he played at North Carolina, UCLA or Duke, he would be on the cover of every magazine in the country. Fazekas overshadows other really good players like Marcelus Kemp, Ramon Sessions and Kyle Shiloh. Nevada has beaten Oregon State, Santa Clara, California and Gonzaga, and has the chops to beat almost anyone.
Wichita State: Don't be fooled by the Shockers' losing four in a row. Two of those losses were, in large measure, because P.J. Couisnard was out and/or limited, and the other two were Missouri Valley Conference games. This team can play with anyone. Kyle Wilson can hit from the perimeter and put it on the deck, and Couisnard and Sean Ogirri are tough as nails. Plus, I would love to have Matt Braeuer as a teammate. That kid spits fire on the floor. Mark Turgeon has a quality team that already is undervalued because of a few bumps in the road.
Northern Iowa: The Panthers have good players at every position and have really solid big guys in Grant Stout and Eric Coleman. Stout can step away and Coleman is an undersized lefty power player who knows how to play angles in the lane. Brooks McKowen and Adam Viet can stretch defenses. Northern Iowa is an experienced group. The Panthers have beaten Iowa State, Bucknell, Iowa, Bradley and Wichita State, and very well could be an NCAA Tournament team.
Missouri State: The Bears are a really, really solid basketball team, and Blake Ahearn is a great college player who will be one of the MVC's all-time greats. This team is well-coached, disciplined and tough enough to hang with anyone. Ahearn averages 16 points per game, but easily could average more if he hunted his shot. Ahearn takes only good shots; he hits over 50 percent of his 3s and over 90 percent of his free throws. Missouri State beat Wisconsin by two on a neutral floor, lost by three to Oklahoma State in overtime (also in South Padre Island), lost at St. Louis by one (on a disputed buzzer-beater), beat Indiana State, beat South Florida and Bradley on the road, and had Creighton down 10 late before letting the game get away in Omaha.
Southern Illinois: Few teams in America guard people like the Salukis. This is one of the most fit and well-conditioned teams in the nation, and all you have to do is watch them close out to tell that this is a well-drilled team, too. SIU has toughness at every position and wins because it has the will to defend. SIU has beaten Wichita State, St. Louis, Virginia Tech and Minnesota, and has lost only to Arkansas and Indiana. The Salukis do not score with great ease, but Jamaal Tatum can get a shot whenever he wants one. Randal Falker is a great worker on both ends and Matt Shaw can step out and shoot or post. Tony Young and Bryan Mullins (a.k.a. G.I. Joe) are really solid guards and the Salukis have depth. In the NCAA Tournament, this team can beat almost anyone.
Winthrop: No team in the Big South has been anywhere near the high level of Winthrop consistently over time. Gregg Marshall's team is good enough to beat a lot of people; the Eagles have played North Carolina tough, played Wisconsin to overtime on the road, and beat Mississippi State and Old Dominion. Torrell Martin is a big-time athlete who can really shoot it and Michael Jenkins can knock down shots and drive it as well. Big men Craig Bradshaw and Phillip Williams can hold their own against most big guys and Chris Gaynor does a good job of running the team. Of the one-bid league teams, Winthrop is among the very best.
Drexel: If the measure of a good team is the ability to win on the road, then Drexel is a good team. The Dragons have beaten Villanova, Syracuse, Temple and Vermont on the road, and beat St. Joseph's and George Mason at home. Bruiser Flint's team has very good guards in Bashir Mason and Dominick Mejia, and very good and athletic interior defenders led by Frank Elegar, the team's leading scorer.
Creighton: The Blue Jays were one of my favorites to be "this year's George Mason." Creighton has been one of the more consistent winners on the mid-major level, and one of the biggest reasons is Dana Altman. The former Kansas State coach has beaten George Mason, Xavier, Houston and Missouri State, and has lost to Nebraska, Dayton and Fresno State on the road. Nate Funk is one of the best guards in the Midwest and can shoot it and make plays, and Anthony Tolliver is a really solid inside player and defender. Point guard Josh Dotzler, although not a big numbers guy, is a valuable player in his ability to run a team and blend everything, but he is out with a hand injury for a few weeks.
Utah State: Stew Morrill is one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball. He just goes to work everyday and makes sure his team does the same. Utah State has beaten Drake and Utah, and the Aggies' only losses have come on the road. Jaycee Carroll is one of the best shooters in the country, and Stephen DuCharme is a very efficient forward who shoots over 60 percent from the floor. Utah State has players who fill roles, play hard, and play together. The Aggies guard you from tap to buzzer, and you have to play very well to beat them.
Other Teams to Watch (because they can beat you, too)
• Western Kentucky (very well-coached by Darrin Horn with a great player in Courtney Lee, but still young)
• Fresno State (Steve Cleveland is a really good coach, and Quinton Hosley and Dominic McGuire are very good)
• Davidson (very disciplined and good offensively)
• Marist (one of the best point guards in America in Jared Jordan)
• Old Dominion (beat Georgetown and UAB, led by inside-out forward Valdas Vasylius)
• Hofstra (starting to play its best with outstanding guards in Loren Stokes and Antoine Agudio)
• Indiana State (beat Purdue and Butler, and Gabriel Moore can score and get to the free throw line)
• Oral Roberts (Caleb Green is a special player)
• North Texas (very athletic and can shoot the 3)
• Cal State Fullerton (Bobby Brown and undersized forward Scott Cutley give the Titans a chance)
• VCU (beat UAB. Anthony Grant has three really good guards)
• Ohio (a solid team with Jerome Tillman, Leon Williams and Bubba Walther leading, and five guys averaging over 13 ppg)
• San Diego (won at Cal and UCSB. Brad Holland is a really good coach with a balanced team)
• Bradley (Jeremy Crouch can really shoot it, but is injured right now)
• UC Santa Barbara (beat UNLV and Fresno State, and Alex Harris is an efficient shooter and scorer)
• Holy Cross (very well-coached, as always, by Ralph Willard)
• Appalachian State (T.J. Thompson and Donte Minter give ASU a chance)
• George Mason (solid pieces at every position, but still figuring it out. Guess what? Jim Larranaga is still really optimistic).
posted: Friday, January 5, 2007 | Print Entry
We should all think carefully, redefine our terms and become more precise. The term "upset" doesn't always apply to the traditional little guy beating the traditional big guy. Mid-Major doesn't mean lesser ability and major doesn't mean superiority.
We need to look closely at teams, and look beyond their records, to determine which teams can really play and which teams cannot. We need to look at who you play, where you play, and how you play, and the circumstances of each game relative to the college basketball landscape.
We need to watch the games. The scores can tell us some important things, but far from everything.
When you watch teams play, and really evaluate them from their performance over time, it becomes clear that there are a lot (precise definition of "a lot": very many; a large number) of teams from non-power conferences or traditional one bid leagues that can play. A lot of non-power conference teams can beat a really good power conference team on a given day. If the stronger, more powerful team does not play its best, and does not come into the game mentally and physically prepared to play and compete at the highest level, there are a lot of teams out there that play in non-power conferences that can win against a really good power conference team.
I think most everyone agrees with that point. With the 3-point shot, differing levels of experience at majors and mid-majors in a given year, and the level of talent dispersed around the country with the reduction in scholarships, there are a lot of teams that are competitive at the higher levels from year to year.
Some would argue that there are several non-power conference teams that can compete favorably, game in and game out, with the very best power teams in the country. I don't agree. "Several" is defined as more than two or three, but less than "many." There are more than just several teams that can compete favorably with the upper echelon teams in college basketball.
I believe there is an array (precise definition: a large and impressive grouping) of non-power conference teams that are good enough to beat the best power conference teams in the country. This array consists of a dozen teams that can compete favorably at home, on the road and on a neutral floor with the very best teams in the nation. If any team from this array wins a game, it is probably not an upset. Really good teams usually don't "upset" other really good teams. They just beat them. The following teams, in my judgment, have a chance to win, and can win, against anyone out there:
Butler: The Bulldogs have really good guards and a good experience level, and if you foul this team, it will knock down its free throws. A.J. Graves is an outstanding shooter who can really find openings. He also leads the team in steals. Mike Green leads the team in rebounding and assists, and Brandon Crone can play inside and out. Butler has beaten Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee, Gonzaga and Purdue, and there are few teams, if any, that Butler cannot beat. Will the Bulldogs get clipped a few times in the Horizon League? Probably, but this team will be in the NCAA Tournament, and can win there.
Air Force: The Falcons were good last year and were an NCAA team. This year, Jeff Bzdelik's team is better. The Falcons have won on the road at Stanford and Colorado, and beat Texas Tech, Wake Forest and Long Beach State on neutral floors. I am not suggesting that this is a Murderer's Row of college basketball, but it is clear that Air Force is a quality team. Dan Nwaelele, Jacob Burtschi and Nick Welch are all quality performers who are hard to guard.
Gonzaga: The Zags play as ambitious a nonconference schedule as anyone, and Mark Few almost must do that in order to prove just how good his team really is. So far, Gonzaga has played North Carolina, Butler, Duke, Texas, Washington State and Georgia away from home, and also traveled to play at Virginia before opening up West Coast Conference play. Gonzaga's 9-5 record is still pretty stout, and this team can be in the Sweet 16 as easily as was last year's version.
Nevada: This is a veteran team with quality parts. Nick Fazekas is the marquee performer, and if he played at North Carolina, UCLA or Duke, he would be on the cover of every magazine in the country. Fazekas overshadows other really good players like Marcelus Kemp, Ramon Sessions and Kyle Shiloh. Nevada has beaten Oregon State, Santa Clara, California and Gonzaga, and has the chops to beat almost anyone.
Wichita State: Don't be fooled by the Shockers' losing four in a row. Two of those losses were, in large measure, because P.J. Couisnard was out and/or limited, and the other two were Missouri Valley Conference games. This team can play with anyone. Kyle Wilson can hit from the perimeter and put it on the deck, and Couisnard and Sean Ogirri are tough as nails. Plus, I would love to have Matt Braeuer as a teammate. That kid spits fire on the floor. Mark Turgeon has a quality team that already is undervalued because of a few bumps in the road.
Northern Iowa: The Panthers have good players at every position and have really solid big guys in Grant Stout and Eric Coleman. Stout can step away and Coleman is an undersized lefty power player who knows how to play angles in the lane. Brooks McKowen and Adam Viet can stretch defenses. Northern Iowa is an experienced group. The Panthers have beaten Iowa State, Bucknell, Iowa, Bradley and Wichita State, and very well could be an NCAA Tournament team.
Missouri State: The Bears are a really, really solid basketball team, and Blake Ahearn is a great college player who will be one of the MVC's all-time greats. This team is well-coached, disciplined and tough enough to hang with anyone. Ahearn averages 16 points per game, but easily could average more if he hunted his shot. Ahearn takes only good shots; he hits over 50 percent of his 3s and over 90 percent of his free throws. Missouri State beat Wisconsin by two on a neutral floor, lost by three to Oklahoma State in overtime (also in South Padre Island), lost at St. Louis by one (on a disputed buzzer-beater), beat Indiana State, beat South Florida and Bradley on the road, and had Creighton down 10 late before letting the game get away in Omaha.
Southern Illinois: Few teams in America guard people like the Salukis. This is one of the most fit and well-conditioned teams in the nation, and all you have to do is watch them close out to tell that this is a well-drilled team, too. SIU has toughness at every position and wins because it has the will to defend. SIU has beaten Wichita State, St. Louis, Virginia Tech and Minnesota, and has lost only to Arkansas and Indiana. The Salukis do not score with great ease, but Jamaal Tatum can get a shot whenever he wants one. Randal Falker is a great worker on both ends and Matt Shaw can step out and shoot or post. Tony Young and Bryan Mullins (a.k.a. G.I. Joe) are really solid guards and the Salukis have depth. In the NCAA Tournament, this team can beat almost anyone.
Winthrop: No team in the Big South has been anywhere near the high level of Winthrop consistently over time. Gregg Marshall's team is good enough to beat a lot of people; the Eagles have played North Carolina tough, played Wisconsin to overtime on the road, and beat Mississippi State and Old Dominion. Torrell Martin is a big-time athlete who can really shoot it and Michael Jenkins can knock down shots and drive it as well. Big men Craig Bradshaw and Phillip Williams can hold their own against most big guys and Chris Gaynor does a good job of running the team. Of the one-bid league teams, Winthrop is among the very best.
Drexel: If the measure of a good team is the ability to win on the road, then Drexel is a good team. The Dragons have beaten Villanova, Syracuse, Temple and Vermont on the road, and beat St. Joseph's and George Mason at home. Bruiser Flint's team has very good guards in Bashir Mason and Dominick Mejia, and very good and athletic interior defenders led by Frank Elegar, the team's leading scorer.
Creighton: The Blue Jays were one of my favorites to be "this year's George Mason." Creighton has been one of the more consistent winners on the mid-major level, and one of the biggest reasons is Dana Altman. The former Kansas State coach has beaten George Mason, Xavier, Houston and Missouri State, and has lost to Nebraska, Dayton and Fresno State on the road. Nate Funk is one of the best guards in the Midwest and can shoot it and make plays, and Anthony Tolliver is a really solid inside player and defender. Point guard Josh Dotzler, although not a big numbers guy, is a valuable player in his ability to run a team and blend everything, but he is out with a hand injury for a few weeks.
Utah State: Stew Morrill is one of the most underrated coaches in college basketball. He just goes to work everyday and makes sure his team does the same. Utah State has beaten Drake and Utah, and the Aggies' only losses have come on the road. Jaycee Carroll is one of the best shooters in the country, and Stephen DuCharme is a very efficient forward who shoots over 60 percent from the floor. Utah State has players who fill roles, play hard, and play together. The Aggies guard you from tap to buzzer, and you have to play very well to beat them.
Other Teams to Watch (because they can beat you, too)
• Western Kentucky (very well-coached by Darrin Horn with a great player in Courtney Lee, but still young)
• Fresno State (Steve Cleveland is a really good coach, and Quinton Hosley and Dominic McGuire are very good)
• Davidson (very disciplined and good offensively)
• Marist (one of the best point guards in America in Jared Jordan)
• Old Dominion (beat Georgetown and UAB, led by inside-out forward Valdas Vasylius)
• Hofstra (starting to play its best with outstanding guards in Loren Stokes and Antoine Agudio)
• Indiana State (beat Purdue and Butler, and Gabriel Moore can score and get to the free throw line)
• Oral Roberts (Caleb Green is a special player)
• North Texas (very athletic and can shoot the 3)
• Cal State Fullerton (Bobby Brown and undersized forward Scott Cutley give the Titans a chance)
• VCU (beat UAB. Anthony Grant has three really good guards)
• Ohio (a solid team with Jerome Tillman, Leon Williams and Bubba Walther leading, and five guys averaging over 13 ppg)
• San Diego (won at Cal and UCSB. Brad Holland is a really good coach with a balanced team)
• Bradley (Jeremy Crouch can really shoot it, but is injured right now)
• UC Santa Barbara (beat UNLV and Fresno State, and Alex Harris is an efficient shooter and scorer)
• Holy Cross (very well-coached, as always, by Ralph Willard)
• Appalachian State (T.J. Thompson and Donte Minter give ASU a chance)
• George Mason (solid pieces at every position, but still figuring it out. Guess what? Jim Larranaga is still really optimistic).