What Say You Weather Manny

[1369]

Any chance of significant accumulation?


.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 335 PM CST MON JAN 8 2007)

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF MOSTLY CLEAR-DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED COLD
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS AS A NWLY FLOW PREVAILS AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT BACK TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. BUT ONLY A BRIEF WIND SHIFT AS A
STRONG RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BRISK
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL RAPIDLY IN WEST TX.
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
CLOUDS FOR THE LATE WEEK...AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO SURGES
BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY AS
A LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE DEEPENING GULF MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT A INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET.

THE MARTIN LUTHER KING WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES LOOK LIKE A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR S TX AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...PUSHING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY...THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WITH THE MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT AND THE COLD DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS BELOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE NRN HILL COUNTRY COULD SEE WINTER PCPN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEP SNOW PACK EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CERTAINLY MINIMIZE MODIFICATION OF THIS ARCTIC AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

IN SUMMARY HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DRASTICALLY DROPPING
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WIT
GOOD CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE WINTER PCPN WOULD MOST LIKELY START IN THE HILL COUNTRY IN FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE COLD AIR WILL INITIALLY BE VERY SHALLOW...BUT WITH CAA/EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER THE SLEET OR EVEN SNOW AS THE AIRMASS DEEPENS. MUCH TOO EARLY TO PONDER ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS...BUT THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER OTHER THAN JUST COLD TEMPERATURES...SO BEARS A CLOSE WATCH.

[Fillmoe]

Raise your hand if you're confused

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Raise your hand if you're confused

Let me make it easy for you, dumbass. (http://youtube.com/watch?v=kD_Sp6ICTxQ)

[Fillmoe]

Let me make it easy for you, dumbass. (http://youtube.com/watch?v=kD_Sp6ICTxQ)


what the fuck does that have to do with manny

[ZStomp]

go to weather.com ksat.com woai.com mysa.com etc...

[scott]

Weather channel says lows over the weekend around 35... I'm not certified meteorologist, but I would say that dampens chances of "accumulation"

[CubanMustGo]

I'm supposed to fly DFW/London on Saturday and will be majorly pissed if this excuse of a "winter weather" system keeps me from getting out on time.

[ashbeeigh]

damn damn damn. Move in day is going to succcccckkkkkkkkkkk. Accumulation or not.

[Mr Dio]

go to weather.com ksat.com woai.com mysa.com etc...


I think that might be a little too obvious for most people Z. :lol

[scott]

I'm supposed to fly DFW/London on Saturday and will be majorly pissed if this excuse of a "winter weather" system keeps me from getting out on time.

I flew to NYC with snow on the ground at DFW a few months ago, I wouldn't expect you to have any problems unless its The Day After Tomorrow (movie).

Have a great trip!

[CubanMustGo]

Snow's one thing, ice (what they're talking about right now) is another. Ice+Texas=panic in the streets

[MannyIsGod]

Ice + ANYWHERE = Panic

No one deals with ice well.

I didn't see this thread until Scott linked it. But yup, I think the news ill get to run their biannual "Big Chill" graphics late this weekend.

[Shelly]

Manny,

There's a pretty good article in February's issue of Popular Mechanics about Canada's ice road. I thought you might find it interesting. I didn't see it on their website, but you can read at the library, I'm sure.

[MannyIsGod]

WTF?


THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE ELIMINATION OF WINTERY
WX BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE THAT THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT POST-
FRONTAL WINTERY PRECIP. HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY TO MAKE
OUTDOOR PREPARATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

TYPICALLY WE NEED TWO FACTORS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THEY ARE AN INTRUSION OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH DIGGING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. WE HAVE THE ARCTIC INTRUSION BUT NOT THE
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF.

Are you fucking kidding me? The models can't have changed that much in one run. I call bullshit.

[CubanMustGo]

It's called "oops, as usual we overstated the chances of winter precip in TX and now there is absolutely NO data anywhere to support it." FWIW they have done the same thing in D/FW, raising the temps a few degrees when it's supposed to be wet this weekend.

[Shelly]

Steve Browne still thinks we will get something.

[MannyIsGod]

I like Steve Browne.

[MannyIsGod]

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO WAFFLE ON WHAT IS TO OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z SOLUTION NOW DEPICTS
OVERRUNNING PCPN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF 1-10. SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS HAVE
BLENDED WITH CRP AND HGX AND RE-INTRODUCED A WINTERY MIX INTO THE
FCST. CONFIDENCE...TO SAY THE LEAST IS LOW ATTM.

I knew that one model run wasn't enough to shift the damn forcast. The GFS handles shit crap horribly because there is so little historical data on it.

I bet that #1 its colder than they think its going to be, and #2 we get precip.

[MannyIsGod]

The latest GFS and NAM runs show overrunning precip. It'll be interesting to see what the next NWS discussion says.

[1369]

Manny, when does the NWS normally update their discussions, and does the NWS have a site for long range (10 days or so) forecasting? I've looked but haven't been able to find anything.

[MannyIsGod]

They normally update the local discussion very 4 hours or so. However, the real updates come 2 times a day, both between 4 and 5 o'clock both AM and PM. Sometimes a bit earlier, sometimes a bit later.

As for 6-10 day outlooks, this is the best you can get:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[MannyIsGod]

They have a crappy feel for this system. They have sped up the cold air, slowed it down, sped it up, and now slowed it down again. They've flip flopped on the moisture as well.

ONE OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FROZEN
PRECIP. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SLEET IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE
PRECIP WILL ALL BE RAIN.

[Shelly]

As I say to every prediction...

"I'll believe it when I see it."

[CubanMustGo]

As I say to every prediction...

"I'll believe it when I see it."

Ah, my dream job ... weather forecaster. You can be wrong 80% of the time and still keep a good-paying job. If only Trinity would have offered more than that one stinkin' meteorology class :madrun

[Shelly]

Steve Browne is still saying yes.

[MannyIsGod]

Ah, my dream job ... weather forecaster. You can be wrong 80% of the time and still keep a good-paying job. If only Trinity would have offered more than that one stinkin' meteorology class :madrunThis is such bullshit. Weather forcasters get shit for being wrong 80% of the time, but thats a total crock. Its a forcast, not a precise prediction. Its not meant to be right or wrong, its meant to give you a general guidline as to what the conditions are for that day.

That being said, meteorologists do a hell of a job with their accuracy.

[Extra Stout]

Ice + ANYWHERE = Panic

No one deals with ice well.


True dat. Flora don't deal with it well either -- ask the trees in St. Louis.

[MannyIsGod]

o.O


A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPILL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL HELP KEEP THE ARCTIC AIR ANCHORED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED
IMPULSES ALOFT IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET PRODUCING FREEZING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING
PERIODS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
BE AIDED BY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MID TO LOWER TEXAS COAST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IMPINGING ON THE MARINE LAYER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO
SNOW DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE.

[THE HATER]

how many times has this manmny dude been wrong?

ok just list the times, he has been right.


1. never

[Taco]

http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/8046/fireplacesg6.gif
I loaded up on firewood for the cold snap

[MoSpur]

I can't for this actual cold front. I hate the hot and humid weather.

[MannyIsGod]

...a Wintry Mix Of Precipitation Across South Central Texas Possible
Late Sunday Into Early Wednesday...

A Very Strong Cold Front Will Push Into The Hill Country And South
Central Texas Saturday Night Into Sunday. As Much Colder Air
Continues To Push Into South Texas Sunday Into Sunday Night,
Temperatures Will Fall To Freezing In The Hill Country By Monday
Morning And Much Of The Rest Of South Central Texas Monday Night.
Because Of A Series Of Fast Moving Upper Air Disturbances Moving
In From The West Monday Through Early Wednesday, There Will Be A
Chance Of Wintry Mix Of Precipitation Developing Over The Hill
Country Early Monday, And All Of South Central Texas Monday Night
Through Wednesday Morning.

The Precipitation Is Expected To Begin As Freezing Rain Over The
Hill Country As Early As Morning Morning...spreading Across Much
Of The Rest Of South Central Texas By Monday Night. As The Freezing
Air Deepens, The Freezing Rain Will Likely Transition Into Sleet
And/or Snow Sometime Monday Night Or Tuesday Morning.

Temperatures Could Briefly Warm Above Freezing Tuesday Afternoon,
However By Tuesday Night Additional Disturbances Will Increase
The Moisture In The Sub-freezing Atmosphere, Transitioning The
Precipitation Back To Sleet Or Snow Across Much Of The Area.

Light Accumulations Of Ice And Snow Are Expected At This Time
With Icing Problems Mainly On Bridges, Overpasses And Exposed
Objects. However Even Light Ice Accumulations Can Be Extremely
Dangerous Here In South Texas.

The Timing And Depth Of The Cold Air Push Will Be Critical With
This Possible Winter Weather Episode, Therefore Listen To Noaa
Weather Radio Or Your Local Media For Updates.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I Wish The National Weather
Service Would Use Lower Case
Letters To Begin Words In
Their Reports.

[MannyIsGod]

They're in all caps but the UBB software changes it to just hte first letter caps.

[1369]

Well, pouring 700+ yards of concrete Monday morning is going to suck ass...

[CubanMustGo]

If you guys get snow down there again and D/FW doesn't I am going to be SO pissed. What's the point in moving 300 miles north if you never get any snow ??

[MannyIsGod]

I think we're far more likely to get freezing rain than snow, but who knows. This is shaping up as a pretty big event.

MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY ON THE WINTER WEATHER.
FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY STARTING MON MORNING
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH THE COLD AIR. A CHANCE OF FROZEN PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID-DAY TUE. TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN. WE WILL CONSIDER ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EAST OF TEXAS BY
WED EVENING AND TAKE ALL THE WINTER PRECIP WITH IT, BUT TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually, the ice storm that is setting up across the middle of the country is going to be brutal. I'm pretty sure we'll get some effect of this towards the end of the weekend, but North Texas is probably going to get hammered all weekend long.

[MoSpur]

I really hope there is at least ice so that I don't have to work.

[CubanMustGo]

Actually, the ice storm that is setting up across the middle of the country is going to be brutal. I'm pretty sure we'll get some effect of this towards the end of the weekend, but North Texas is probably going to get hammered all weekend long.

Yeah, looks like the next two days are supposed to be pretty bad up here. I hope the ground is warm enough so I can get to D/FW for my flight to London tomorrow afternoon.

In the meantime we're having flash floods up here. That's OK because the lake we get our water from is like 16' low.

[MannyIsGod]

I wouldn't bet on your flight being able to go. If you can make arrangements with your airline, you may want to try.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Holy fucking shit. I went to work this morning and it was 68 degrees. Just left work and it's friggin' 39.

The cold is coming.

[CubanMustGo]

I wouldn't bet on your flight being able to go. If you can make arrangements with your airline, you may want to try.

This is a real tight there-and-back. I just bought some trip cancellation insurance, b/c if it ends up being as bad as they say D/FW could get nailed and shut down for the better part of 36 hours, and basically that would screw the entire trip.

$40 is pretty cheap insurance and it'll cover it if the airport gets shut down.

[MannyIsGod]

I'd bet on that airport being shut down. Nice job with that purchase.

[samikeyp]

Actually, the ice storm that is setting up across the middle of the country is going to be brutal. I'm pretty sure we'll get some effect of this towards the end of the weekend, but North Texas is probably going to get hammered all weekend long.

We are getting the north end of that here. Looks like a fun weekend. :p:

[Shelly]

Thunder!

[scott]

Thunder!

Too early in the morning for AC/DC, Sheallay

[exstatic]

Damn, did SA suddenly shift to the Pacific Northwest? I feel all depressed with this rain by the hours and hours, and should maybe write some grunge music.

[scott]

Just kill yourself instead.

[Shelly]

Too early in the morning for AC/DC, Sheallay

:lol


I'm waiting for it to start raining ash.

[exstatic]

Just kill yourself instead.
Nah, I'll just drink some more coffee. It'll keep my hands occupied so I don't accidentally slit my wrists. :p:

[scott]

Nah, I'll just drink some more coffee. It'll keep my hands occupied so I don't accidentally slit my wrists. :p:

Please don't slit your wrists... I've got overdose in the SpursTalk exstatic suicide pool

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damnit, the cold hasn't pushed far enough south. We're getting two inches of rain an hour right now in Dallas. We'd have a rocking snowstorm if the cold weather would just hurry up and get here.

[exstatic]

Please don't slit your wrists... I've got overdose in the SpursTalk exstatic suicide pool

Hah! No vBookie for you!! :fro

[MannyIsGod]

Damnit, the cold hasn't pushed far enough south. We're getting two inches of rain an hour right now in Dallas. We'd have a rocking snowstorm if the cold weather would just hurry up and get here.You'd be having an ice storm, not a snow storm. When you see what that much water will do in an ince storm, you're not going to be happy.

:lol Do you have a fire place? Stock up on wood. You're going to be pissed when the power's out and you're cold as fuck.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I'd be happy if I don't have to go to work on Monday :lol

[CubanMustGo]

You'd be having an ice storm, not a snow storm. When you see what that much water will do in an ince storm, you're not going to be happy.

:lol Do you have a fire place? Stock up on wood. You're going to be pissed when the power's out and you're cold as fuck.

Yep. The warm air is overriding a very thin layer of cold air and so it will be ice once the surface temps gets down enough. Interestingly every time it rains it gets warmer - the heavy rain has actually kept the ice storm at bay so far.

Took care of the wood last night. Got the fireplace going now. Fortunately for us the power lines in our neighborhood are underground but of course the big transmission lines are very much up in the air.

[xrayzebra]

Here you go, this is what the weather service is putting out.......

VAL VERDE-KINNEY-UVALDE-MEDINA-BEXAR-GUADALUPE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DEL RIO...BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...
HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...SEGUIN...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1220 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

EXPECT FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THE RAIN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS EARLY AS MONDAY.

MOST OF THE ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE FROM FREEZING RAIN...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

------------------------------------------------------------

Those ice accumulations ought to take care of some of those branches on the
trees.

[01Snake]

Talk to my parents a few minutes ago and they said its 46 degrees in Boerne right now. Kinda weird we are still at 70.

[MannyIsGod]

Talk to my parents a few minutes ago and they said its 46 degrees in Boerne right now. Kinda weird we are still at 70.Thats a cold front for you.

[xrayzebra]

Things are moving a little faster than expected, aren't they?

[rl64tx]

all stocked up on firewood and liquor!! :drunk

[1369]

Stocked up on Tito's and olive juice (Dirty Martini) and I'm making beer cheese soup tonight from a recipe that I got from a bar I used to go to when I lived in Minnesota.

[MannyIsGod]

eewww

[T Park]

beer cheese soup?

dear lord....

[1369]

eewww


beer cheese soup?

dear lord....

We mock that which we don't understand.

[rl64tx]

Stocked up on Tito's and olive juice (Dirty Martini) and I'm making beer cheese soup tonight from a recipe that I got from a bar I used to go to when I lived in Minnesota.

It sounds interesting to me!! I googled it and found some good recipes..may have to brew up some, thanks!! :hungry:

[Shelly]

We mock that which we don't understand.

:lol

I thought it sounded kinda good!

[Slomo]

I had turkey breast steaks fried in a beer batter for lunch :tu

[T Park]

BTW just stepped outside.

In a matter of about 40 minutes, its gone form muggy mild to freezing cold.

Holy cow.

[leemajors]

We mock that which we don't understand.

sounds good, as long as you don't have to use any bier kaese from Germany. that scent can fill a room, and not in a good way. tastes pretty good, but it reeks more than any cheese i have ever smelled.

[leemajors]

I had turkey breast steaks fried in a beer batter for lunch :tu

i've had a nice tender venison backstrap marinating in a puree of onions, garlic, sage, rosemary and apple cider vinegar for the last 20 hours. gonna wrap it in pancetta before i grill it... :hungry:

[rl64tx]

i've had a nice tender venison backstrap marinating in a puree of onions, garlic, sage, rosemary and apple cider vinegar for the last 20 hours. gonna wrap it in pancetta before i grill it... :hungry:

I'm grilling up some HEB pre seasoned beef fajitas and adding some grilled onions and bell peppers! If I can survive the frigid 51 degrees here in SA!! Puro Tejano!! :drunk

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I'm fixing to fire up the Foreman grill for some Shiner burgers here at the Casa de Hoopsfan.

I'm fully stocked for the ice storm - 12 pack of Shiner, bottle of Grey Goose, bottle of Crown, cooler of ice.

:hat

[Kori Ellis]

I'm fixing to fire up the Foreman grill for some Shiner burgers here at the Casa de Hoopsfan.

I'm fully stocked for the ice storm - 12 pack of Shiner, bottle of Grey Goose, bottle of Crown, cooler of ice.

:hat

And if you run out of ice, you can just put a bucket outside and fill it back up.

[MannyIsGod]

And if you run out of ice, you can just put a bucket outside and fill it back up.:lol

My mom and I went out to lunch and when I left it was warm. When we got out of the car to eat it was FREEZING. I hate this weather.

[Shelly]

You're so...so...tropical

[1369]

You're so...so...tropical

Now why do I picture Shelly saying tropical in a breathy Marilyn-esque voice?

[MannyIsGod]

Damn straight I'm tropical.

[Manu20]

I think this was an interesting Discussion.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST INDICATES PERSISTENCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES...RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS...ALL IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON MONDAY.

WHILE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS OF MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN MAINLY THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA...MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZES DO
OCCUR IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS...AND THERE CAN BE SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES FOR VARIOUS
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE FREEZE EVENTS ARE
CHALLENGING TO FORECAST SINCE AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS TENDS TO BE
SHALLOW...MAKING IT HARD FOR COMPUTER MODELS TO RESOLVE THE RELEVANT
PARAMETERS ON AN ADEQUATE SCALE...AND THESE EVENTS ARE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH SUCH THAT GOOD FORECASTING REFERENCES AND TOOLS ARE NOT
ROBUST.

ONE THING IS KNOWN...AND THAT IS THAT MAJOR FREEZE EVENTS IN THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC OUTBREAKS
SUCH AS THE ONE NOW TAKING PLACE. ALSO...THERE ARE SIMILARITIES
BETWEEN ARCTIC OUTBREAKS THAT CAN BE DESCRIBED IN A GENERAL
SENSE...AND IT MAY BE INSTRUCTIVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE CURRENT H5
PATTERN BASED ON ANALYSIS DONE BY MCFARLAND (1976).

THE MAIN H5 FEATURES TO BE LOOKING FOR...ACCORDING TO THE MCFARLAND
STUDY...ARE A DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER BAFFIN BAY...A MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WITH AN EAST-WEST TROUGH LINE...
ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE TROUGH LINE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROUGH LINE. KEY EVENTS INCLUDE THE
BREAK OUT OF A HIGH LATITUDE SURFACE HIGH AFTER THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
OMEGA-TYPE BLOCK OVER NORTHWEST CANADA...THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
EAST-WEST TROUGH LINE LINKING UP WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER BAFFIN
BAY...CYCLOGENESIS IN THE BASE OF THE EAST-WEST TROUGH AS IT MOVES
SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH. THE CURRENT PATTERN DOES INDEED REFLECT MANY OF THE ABOVE
FEATURES...SO IT WILL PAY TO BE VIGILANT. THE MODELS ARE NOT
FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE EVENT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THOSE
PROVIDED BY GUIDANCE.

AN INITIAL PREPARATORY COLD AIR MASS FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA IS
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS NOW...BUT IS PREVENTED FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH JUST YET AS THERE IS A STROM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO KICK OUT BEFORE IT IS
OVERTAKEN BY ARCTIC AIR SPILLING OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA. IF THE H5
TROUGH HAD BEEN ABLE TO SWING SOUTH AND EAST A BIT MORE BEFORE BEING
OVERTAKEN BY COLD AIR...THERE MIGHT HAVE BEEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
STRONGER ARCTIC OUTBREAK. NONETHELESS...COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
REACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING...STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH
THROUGH THE BROWNSVILLE AREA AROUND MID DAY.

TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LIFTING AND MOISTURE INCREASE TO 10
KFT WITH THE FRONT ON MONDAY...BRINGING INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE COLD AIR WILL CREATE A
VERY STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE AND A STRONG INVERSION...SO THINK
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMIZED. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING
TOWARD SHARP BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NOW IS DEVELOPING HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT QUICKER MOVING PUSH ON MONDAY WITH LIMITED UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD REDUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL HERE BY THEN. AFTER
FROPA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE AND BEGIN TO DECREASE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEDGE OF COLD AIR AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 950 MB OR 2000 FT...OR JUST A BIT LOWER...
WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX...SLEET OR ICE PELLETS
AND HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE ZONE WORDING. WILL REASSESS POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER WATCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEFORE ISSUING ANY OF
THOSE PRODUCTS.

WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM FOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES...SINCE THESE
SEEM TO REFLECT THINGS BETTER. TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE BE
DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER ABOUT WEDNESDAY WILL BLEND THE GFS BACK INTO THE GRIDS.

LOCAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY BY AROUND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFILTRATION ENDS. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED A WEEK FROM
TODAY AS MORE COLD AIR DESCENDS FROM CANADA.
&&

[MannyIsGod]

Man thats a long discussion. Thats a pretty interesting read though - for weather geeks - because it gives a good background on how the situation sets up on a large and nearly global scale.

Its true that if the low wasn't developing in the southwest we'd be freezing our asses off right now and we also wouldn't have the ice.

Anyhow, because the tempature is going to be hovering so close to the freezing point starting tomorrow and probably all of Monday, different parts of town will see different conditions. This is a pretty cool page to find a weather station near you to see what the conditions are like. 2-3 degrees will be a big difference in conditions over the next few days.

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps/gmap.asp?zip=78212&magic=1&wmo=99999

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

And if you run out of ice, you can just put a bucket outside and fill it back up.

Ha ha, nice. Man vs. wild, Dallas ice storm edition...

[MannyIsGod]

Ha ha, nice. Man vs. wild, Dallas ice storm edition...:lol

With a foreman grill? Ha!

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

:lol

With a foreman grill? Ha!

:lol Okay, you got a point... And I won't have to gather downed limbs for a shelter, either. But besides that, it's all the same...

[1369]

:lol Okay, you got a point... And I won't have to gather downed limbs for a shelter, either. But besides that, it's all the same...

With the exception of the roof, four walls, R-25 insulation, central heat, soft bed....yea, I can see the similarities between you and the Frog.

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

I got a tent. Who wants to go camping?

[MannyIsGod]

Well, looking over the model runs for the NAM, on early Tuesday morning it shows the 5000 ft layer to be below freezing and a good amount of precipitation happening here. I believe that would indicate snow, but I'm not completely sure. We'll see when the next discussion comes out.

[Kori Ellis]

Well, looking over the model runs for the NAM, on early Tuesday morning it shows the 5000 ft layer to be below freezing and a good amount of precipitation happening here. I believe that would indicate snow, but I'm not completely sure. We'll see when the next discussion comes out.

So that means you aren't coming out of your house at all until about Friday? :lol

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah I don't know, but I hate going out when its this cold. I went out today when it was still warm, and by the time I got back I was close to being dead. If we get all the ice and snow, I'll have to go out to take pictures and what not, but otherwise I'm going to curl up in a blanket with coffee/soup.

I hate the cold.

[MannyIsGod]

Well, they haven't put up the new discussion yet, but they have the new forcasts up. Snow/Sleet Monday night/Tuesday morning is what they are calling for. Probably turning from Snow to rain on Tuesday.

They show the low tonight (sunday night) as 33 with heavy rain, so I think there is a decent chance of ice tonight as well.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I just want to know what happened to all the global warming articles that were out two weeks ago? I guess they shut the hell up now the nation is freezing :lol

[Shelly]

This weather is GREAT!!!!

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Some tree limbs are starting to sag here in Plano. Several overpasses throughout DFW already closed. Let the fun begin...

[Shelly]

So that means you aren't coming out of your house at all until about Friday? :lol

Manny is going into hibernation. :sleep

[kingsfan]

I hate the cold too, lucky for me it's 70 degrees http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smispin.gif These rough winters are a bitch http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smirolleyes.gif

[MannyIsGod]

Wow! According to the last NAM run, we'd be under freezing all day Tuesday and maybe Wednesday as well. That gives a huge window for snowfall and accumulation. Also, if there is a widespread snow event the way there was on Christmas 2 years ago, the snow itself will act as a device to keep the air near the surface colder. This will be an interesting 48 hours.

Tonight may see freezing rain, but I kinda doubt it. I think tomorrow night is the real deal though.

[CubanMustGo]

I just want to know what happened to all the global warming articles that were out two weeks ago? I guess they shut the hell up now the nation is freezing :lol


Ah, the typical knee-jerk "look, we got three days of cold weather so let's ignore the trends of the last fifty years" response. Congrats on not seeing the forest for the trees.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn, power was out for about three hours today.

Manny, FWIW, they were talking here about the air up above 3000 feet being in the 50+ degree range, which was precluding the snow.

We're getting freezing rain here right now. Hope I get a snow/ice day tomorrow :hat

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Ah, the typical knee-jerk "look, we got three days of cold weather so let's ignore the trends of the last fifty years" response. Congrats on not seeing the forest for the trees.

Kinda like last year's bullshit about all the hurricanes being caused by global warming and then we didn't have any serious hurricanes this year stuff, huh?

I can see the trees just fine. They're frozen over though :lol

[td4mvp21]

Wow! According to the last NAM run, we'd be under freezing all day Tuesday and maybe Wednesday as well. That gives a huge window for snowfall and accumulation. Also, if there is a widespread snow event the way there was on Christmas 2 years ago, the snow itself will act as a device to keep the air near the surface colder. This will be an interesting 48 hours.

Tonight may see freezing rain, but I kinda doubt it. I think tomorrow night is the real deal though.
How far south could snowfall reach? Corpus maybe?

[Extra Stout]

Kinda like last year's bullshit about all the hurricanes being caused by global warming and then we didn't have any serious hurricanes this year stuff, huh?

I can see the trees just fine. They're frozen over though :lol
One warm snap does not mean global warming. Average world temperatures being up across the board over a long period of time constitutes global warming.

One season with lots of hurricanes does not constitute global warming. Now, if 80 years from now we look back and say, "Huh, there sure have been a lot of hurricanes these past eighty years" from our beachfront villas in Victoria, then that probably constitutes global warming.

[MannyIsGod]

Temps are falling fast and precip is picking up. The weather station I'm watching out in Boerne is about to hit the freezing mark, but most others around the area seem like it'll be a while before they do. If temps keep falling at the rate they are right now, then we will get freezing rain tonight in San Antonio.

[SpursWoman]

This weather sucks. :(



Although my kids are out of their minds thinking they might get to see some snow. :spin

[Sunshine]

Sucks that I have to work today. Would be a PERFECT day to stay in bed all day and snuggle with my honey bunny!

[SpursWoman]

I think everyone here is planning on leaving early .... which would include me. I hate driving in rain, much less ice. I'm a big baby. :oops :lol

[katyon6th]

Sucks that I have to work today. Would be a PERFECT day to stay in bed all day and snuggle with my honey bunny!

That's exactly what I was thinking when I woke up this morning and I've been contemplating it ever since. But alas, here I am at work ... cold as fuck because bldg management didn't turn the heat on in our office until after we got in this morning. What the hell?

[Sonia_TX]

Sucks that I have to work today. Would be a PERFECT day to stay in bed all day and snuggle with my honey bunny!


I'm at home and will probably be in bed all day but I don't have a honey bunny to share that with. Dangit!!


Everybody be careful driving home today/tomorrow. Seems like it's going to get nasty out there.

[Shelly]

I've been covering my plants all morning. The temp was 34 when I got up and now it's at freezing. I just checked the wind chill and it's 22!

[Spurfect]

Well we keep hearing that we might be leaving early... I hope it's true
my friend in Houston just wrote to me and told me they are closing down right now and will be off tomorrow!

[Taco]

http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/8046/fireplacesg6.gif
I loaded up on firewood for the cold snap

I got my fireplace going, who's got the marshmellows? :hungry:

[xrayzebra]

Looks like the moisture is moving out of the area to me. I just checked the radar
and everything is moving East and nothing in the West. What little was
out there was evaporating. Keep you fingers crossed.

[PM5K]

I'm at home and will probably be in bed all day but I don't have a honey bunny to share that with. Dangit!!


mmmm....

[CubanMustGo]

Looks like the moisture is moving out of the area to me. I just checked the radar
and everything is moving East and nothing in the West. What little was
out there was evaporating. Keep you fingers crossed.

You may be done for now but you've got more impulses headed your way late tonight and tomorrow.

[xrayzebra]

You may be done for now but you've got more impulses headed your way late tonight and tomorrow.


Yep you are right, here is the advisory from NWS.

AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES INCLUDING AUSTIN
HOWEVER THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE EXIT OF THE LATEST UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT NECESSARY AND WILL RESULT IN
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
TUESDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL
ADHERE TO EXPOSED OBJECTS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-223-160000-
/O.CON.KEWX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070116T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-GONZALES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDE RICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...GONZALES
1154 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007

[Spurfect]

when's the bad weather gonna hit the Perrin Beitel/410 area... I wanna get out of here!!! :lol

[Sunshine]

I hate driving in the ice. Absolutely hate it. If it's icey when I leave...someone's getting a phone call to come pick me up from work! :lol

[MannyIsGod]

It probably won't get bad until much later tonight. You guys should be fine to drive home. Just becareful.

[PM5K]

If any ladies need rides home just let me know....

Otherwise be very careful, I wouldn't want anything to happen to my precious.....

[Sunshine]

I think tonight is a good night for a roaring fire in the fireplace, a nice hot King Ranch Chicken casserole and maybe a hot toddy.

Oh, and Monday night football.

[Solid D]

If any ladies need rides home just let me know....

Otherwise be very careful, I wouldn't want anything to happen to my precious.....

You called them ladies. Congratulations. There is hope for you, yet.

[PM5K]

You called them ladies. Congratulations. There is hope for you, yet.

Yeah I only call them bitches AFTER I've tapped it...

[Spurfect]

going home in 15.. yayy

[PM5K]

going home in 15.. yayy

Be careful darling...

[MannyIsGod]

PM5K is a smart man.

I think the NWS just put the local radar on snow mode.

[PM5K]

PM5K is a smart man.

I think the NWS just put the local radar on snow mode.

I fucking hate cold weather, the only advantage is hot chocolate, spooning, and menudo/caldo, otherwise fuck it...

However, I don't care how cold it is, if it snows my ass is outside, I haven't seen significant snow since I was a kid in Odessa....

[midgetonadonkey]

I'm going to get drunk as hell tonight and go speeding down I-10 at 105+.

[Melmart1]

It was nice knowing you, Midge.

[PM5K]

It was nice knowing you, Midge.

And everyone else on IH-10

[Melmart1]

You actually think there will be other people on there?

[PM5K]

You actually think there will be other people on there?

You think Midge is the only idiot in a city of over one million people?

You obviously don't read these forums enough...

[Melmart1]

You think Midge is the only idiot in a city of over one million people?

You obviously don't read these forums enough...
Midge isn't an idiot, he is just crazy. There is a fine line you know...

[PM5K]

He's both, he's a crazy idiot....

Driving on IH-10 tonight would be crazy, doing it while intoxicated would be something only an idiot would do, so he's obviously a cridiot...

[Sunshine]

Yea! My boss just told me to leave at 5:00.

(I usually have to work till 7:00)

[midgetonadonkey]

He's both, he's a crazy idiot....

Driving on IH-10 tonight would be crazy, doing it while intoxicated would be something only an idiot would do, so he's obviously a cridiot...

You are the fucking idiot for thinking I was serious.

[midgetonadonkey]

Midge isn't an idiot, he is just crazy. There is a fine line you know...

And thank you Mel for speaking the truth about me.

[PM5K]

You are the fucking idiot for thinking I was serious.

You are the fucking idiot for thinking I was thinking you were serious....


What were you thinking?

(BTW I don't think you are serious even now)

[midgetonadonkey]

You know what. Just to spite you, I'm gonna go do it.

[Mixability]

just call him fat, midge.

he'll buckle.

[PM5K]

You know what. Just to spite you, I'm gonna go do it.

Just to spite you, I totally believe you, damn cridiot...

[PM5K]

just call him fat, midge.

he'll buckle.

I'm not fat, I'm big boned...

[katyon6th]

I think tonight is a good night for a roaring fire in the fireplace, a nice hot King Ranch Chicken casserole and maybe a hot toddy.

Oh, and Monday night football.

Sorry, no MNF tonight ... it's the playoffs.

:elephant

[midgetonadonkey]

As a fat person I can not call anyone fat.

[PM5K]

I win....

[MannyIsGod]

Fuck MNF, Jack Baeur is on tonight.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Fuck MNF, Jack Baeur is on tonight.

Jack Bauer is on now.

[MannyIsGod]

Jack Bauer is on now.Eh?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Eh?

I didn't want to stop watching the game yesterday, so I downloaded yesterday and today's episodes to watch.

[2Blonde]

Jack Bauer is on now.
We just started watching Jack Bauer recently, so we are only on the beginning of season 4. I spent two days trying to track down the the last episode of season 3 this weekend. We are just DVR-ing the new stuff until we get through seasons 4 & 5.

BTW... It's frigging COLD out there. I'm going to go crawl under my heated blankie in a few minutes.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

We just started watching Jack Bauer recently, so we are only on the beginning of season 4. I spent two days trying to track down the the last episode of season 3 this weekend. We are just DVR-ing the new stuff until we get through seasons 4 & 5.

BTW... It's frigging COLD out there. I'm going to go crawl under my heated blankie in a few minutes.

I still have only seen parts of Season 1, I'm going to try and keep up with this season and watch the others once this one finishes.

[MannyIsGod]

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON AREA RADARS STILL DEPICT A PATCHY WINTERY MIX FROM
SAN MARCOS TO GEORGETOWN AND BRENHAM MOVING NORTHEAST. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWFA (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/cwfa.htm) WAS PRECIP FREE. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAVERSE SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTERY WX (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/wx.htm). THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP
WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THEN OVERSPREAD
THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST
MIDDAY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
FREEZING SOUTH TO THE MID 20S NORTH. THUS THE EXPECTED WINTER
PRECIP WILL RANGE FROM RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN SOUTH TO SNOW NORTH.
THE METRO AREAS OF AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL SEE A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WHICH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLOSURE OF ELEVATED
OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY TUESDAY DUE
TO ICE ACCUMULATIONS. A CENTRAL TEXAS UPPER-AIR SOUNDING WOULD SURE
BE HANDY FOR DETERMINING PCPN TYPE FOR THIS EVENT.

PRECIP STAYS IN THE FORECAST AS RIPPLES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. AS ALWAYS THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT FOR MODELS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/models.htm) TO RESOLVE. THE THREAT OF
WINTERY PCPN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SFC (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/sfc.htm) TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL OF THE CWFA (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/cwfa.htm). ATTM (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/glossary/def/attm.htm) WILL EXTEND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY.
WILL LET LATER SHIFTS INTERROGATE FUTURE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO DETERMINE
THE NEED FOR EXTENDING THE WARNING AND ADVISORY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL STILL BE COOL AND OVERCAST THANKS
TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 60S POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. IN THE
INTERIM WINTER HAS THE UPPER HAND.

[midgetonadonkey]

So does this mean I don't have to work tomorrow?

[katyon6th]

I've been invited to watch Jack Bauer tonight with someone very special but I've never seen an episode of 24.

What to do?

[midgetonadonkey]

I've been invited to watch Jack Bauer tonight with someone very special but I've never seen an episode of 24.

What to do?

You should go watch it with that someone and then ask a million questions throughout the duration of the show. Guys love it when chicks do that.

[katyon6th]

You should go watch it with that someone and then ask a million questions throughout the duration of the show. Guys love it when chicks do that.

I warned him about that but he says he doesn't mind.

What do you think that means?

[01Snake]

Weather.com says is snowing in SA right now. :lol

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I warned him about that but he says he doesn't mind.

What do you think that means?

To answer your question, I don't think PM5K will have a problem with it.

[spurschick]

It's times like these when I think that Jennifer Broome sprouts wood.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

It's times like these when I think that Jennifer Broome sprouts wood.

Well, there goes any chance at an erection tonight.

[spurschick]

Well, there goes any chance at an erection tonight.

I don't even know where to begin commenting on that. :lol

[spurs=bling]

Fuck this shit, i hate cold weather.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I don't even know where to begin commenting on that. :lol

Follow your heart. :lol

[midgetonadonkey]

I warned him about that but he says he doesn't mind.

What do you think that means?

I think it means the relationship is relatively new and he is trying to say the right things.

[PM5K]

To answer your question, I don't think PM5K will have a problem with it.

Not one bit....

[MannyIsGod]

I'm going out into the blizzard. I may not make it back. Please remember me if I die.

Goodbye.

[midgetonadonkey]

I'm going out into the blizzard. I may not make it back. Please remember me if I die.

Goodbye.

I'm not remembering shit!!

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I'm going out into the blizzard. I may not make it back. Please remember me if I die.

Goodbye.

Can I have the TV if you die?

[PM5K]

I'm going out into the blizzard. I may not make it back. Please remember me if I die.

Goodbye.

Who are you again?

[Shelly]

I'm going out into the blizzard. I may not make it back. Please remember me if I die.

Goodbye.


God Speed, Manuel.

[MannyIsGod]

I survived. It was a harrowing experience, but I returned with Starbuck's coffee.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh yeah, there is a steady rain down here. The temp is still about a degree or 2 above freezing, but that won't last long. When that hits 32 I hate to see what this is going to do.

[MannyIsGod]

TXDOT starting to close roads right now. I bet schools will start canceling soon considering it is all downhilll from here.

[Sonia_TX]

This is exciting. lol I love cold weather but only when I get to stay indoors and in bed, watching tv.

And it makes me laugh when I see my cousin on TV!! Good ole CPS Safety Awareness.

[Shelly]

TXDOT starting to close roads right now. I bet schools will start canceling soon considering it is all downhilll from here.

Yes...the rain is starting to freeze at my house and ice is starting to from. My kids are keeping their fingers crossed that Norhtside closes school.

[Das Texan]

i wonder how i can parlay this into not driving to ft worth tomorrow.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, there is no way they don't Shelly. This stuff is just going to get much much worse as the night goes on. Half the city is under freezing and the other half will be within a couple of hours. The rain is coming down at a decent clip and its going to keep up most if not all of the night.

[SequSpur]

get a jacket and gloves and quit being wusses. WTF?

[DaSpurs#1]

Yeah, there is no way they don't Shelly. This stuff is just going to get much much worse as the night goes on. Half the city is under freezing and the other half will be within a couple of hours. The rain is coming down at a decent clip and its going to keep up most if not all of the night.where do yall live? cuzz right now its just drizzling where i live at 1604 and 281

[MannyIsGod]

Downtown.

Drizzle will be more than enough, though. It takes less than 1/100 of an inch in rain to cause this city to have its roadways shut down.

[SequSpur]

Steve Brown says it's going to snow mofos.

[MannyIsGod]

I told you that days ago motherfucker. Steve Browne gets his info from me.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Oh yeah, there is a steady rain down here. The temp is still about a degree or 2 above freezing, but that won't last long. When that hits 32 I hate to see what this is going to do.

If you keep getting rain, not much until it stops. It'll be like up here on Saturday where it rained and rained and even though the temp. at the surface was below freezing, up in the clouds it was up in the 50s and that kept things from getting really bad.

When it stops though, you're screwed. :lol

[SequSpur]

I told you that days ago motherfucker. Steve Browne gets his info from me.

Steve Brown > Jennifer Broom > Manny

[MannyIsGod]

If you keep getting rain, not much until it stops. It'll be like up here on Saturday where it rained and rained and even though the temp. at the surface was below freezing, up in the clouds it was up in the 50s and that kept things from getting really bad.

When it stops though, you're screwed. :lolNah, because its been in the low 30s all day, rain will start freezing on contact. I'm pretty sure that by late tonight most of the bridges in town will have a good coat of ice on them. The trees will all start to be covered by ice as well.

[SequSpur]

i got icycles.

[MannyIsGod]

No shit? Damn.

[MannyIsGod]

BB Gun > Icycles

[SequSpur]

No shit? Damn.

yeah, dude, i'm licking them.. :toast

[spurschick]

Got a steady drizzle up here at 1604/Blanco/Huebner

[Shelly]

I'm starting to get icicles also

[katyon6th]

Motherfucker. There's ice on my porch and I almost just died.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

No icicles yet, but the water on our sidewalk lights is frozen.

[katyon6th]

There's all sorts of closures on the NW side. I may get to sleep in.

[Shelly]

SAN ANTONIO -- The Texas Department of Transportation closed some freeway ramps in San Antonio on Monday night due to freezing weather.

The following roads are closed or in the process of being closed:

Elevated ramps of I-10 Westbound exit to Huebner Road
I-10 Westbound entrance ramp to UTSA Blvd
I-10 Westbound entrance to Loop 1604
I-10 Eastbound exit to the frontage road at Leon Creek
Loop 1604 Westbound entrance ramp to I-10
Loop 410 Eastbound exit to Jackson-Keller
Loop 410 Westbound exit to West Avenue
Westbound exit to Vance Jackson Road
I-10 elevated levels in both directions between Fresno and I-35

[SequSpur]

NEISD is closed tomorrow.

[Shelly]

Northside is taking it's sweet time announcing if they're gonna close. Effer.

[Shelly]

ALL SCHOOLS CLOSED TUESDAY DUE TO ICE THREAT
NISD Communications Department
January 15, 2007
Due to the winter ice threat, ALL Northside ISD schools and offices will be closed on Tuesday. A decision about classes on Wednesday will be announced on Tuesday via this website and the media.

[MannyIsGod]

Shitload of rain to the SW thats going to be coming in. I think I'm going to call and order a pizza in a bit just to make them come out. :lmao

[Shelly]

Tip them well!

[Das Texan]

Shitload of rain to the SW thats going to be coming in. I think I'm going to call and order a pizza in a bit just to make them come out. :lmao



ya we all know that wont end well.

[DaSpurs#1]

NEISD Just Got Canceled!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ObiwanGinobili]

oh crappity crap crap.

Today the plant switched to NightShift.... Emo is getting off work at 3:30 AM.
oh man I do not want him driving home in this shit at 3:30am. :depressed

[ObiwanGinobili]

oh damn.
AND I gotta bring the munchkins to a Dr.s apt. tomarrow AM.

greeeeeat. just great.

[SpursWoman]

Judson ISD is cancelled tomorrow. :smokin

[exstatic]

Rolled the trash barrel near the front door a couple of hours ago. Just put my trash in it and rolled it to the curb. There was ice on it already. Fun times tommorrow. I'm setting my alarm 30 minutes early. I already covered by windshield and mirrors with trashbags.

[MannyIsGod]

I wish I didn't have to drive to work tomorrow. :(


Oh wait, I don't. Bitches!

[Melmart1]

Working from home RULES on a day like tomorrow!!!

Unfortunately, methinks my roommates will likely be home all day too.

[Kori Ellis]

Our back deck is pretty iced over all ready. I hope it snows or something good.

[MannyIsGod]

Working from home RULES on a day like tomorrow!!!

Unfortunately, methinks my roommates will likely be home all day too.Push him outside and drench him with the hose.

[MannyIsGod]

The snow will start much later tonight/tomorrow morning. I would be suprised if most of us in SA didn't get snow.

[td4mvp21]

Our back deck is pretty iced over all ready. I hope it snows or something good.

It sounds like it will. When it snowed here (Corpus) two years ago, everything got really icy first and it was mostly a ice/rain mix, then it turned to snow.

[Sonia_TX]

Working from home RULES on a day like tomorrow!!!

Unfortunately, methinks my roommates will likely be home all day too.

Yes it does. I would hate to have to drive to work in this weather.

[Melmart1]

Push him outside and drench him with the hose.
One is a social worker- would city employees get the day off? The other is a law student, I guess law students at St. Mary's start before everyone else, he has been at it a week already. I swear, they expect the students to be sub-human robots, so I bet he does have to go tomorrow. I mean, he had chapters upon chapters of work to do during Christmas break. That is complete insanity.

[SpursWoman]

Well, I know how we're spending our semi-unexpected day off tomorrow ... User's parents got this for my kids for Christmas and we finally got it all together...


http://tsa.imageg.net/graphics/product_images/p419472dt.jpg


The pool is really weird because the table and cues are so small...but the foosball & the air hockey kick ass. :smokin

[midgetonadonkey]

I'm sleeping with my windows open tonight.

[MannyIsGod]

No you're not. You're going to sit in your warm apartment and post on Spurstalk.

[Kori Ellis]

No you're not. You're going to sit in your warm apartment and post on Spurstalk.

When did Midge become your bitch?

[SpursWoman]

I'm sleeping with my windows open tonight.

I thought you were going for ride? :drunk

[midgetonadonkey]

I am nobody's bitch!!

[midgetonadonkey]

No you're not. You're going to sit in your warm apartment and post on Spurstalk.

I live in a house. Ha!

[Spurfect]

SAN ANTONIO -- The Texas Department of Transportation closed some freeway ramps in San Antonio on Monday night due to freezing weather.

The following roads are closed or in the process of being closed:

Elevated ramps of I-10 Westbound exit to Huebner Road
I-10 Westbound entrance ramp to UTSA Blvd
I-10 Westbound entrance to Loop 1604
I-10 Eastbound exit to the frontage road at Leon Creek
Loop 1604 Westbound entrance ramp to I-10
Loop 410 Eastbound exit to Jackson-Keller
Loop 410 Westbound exit to West Avenue
Westbound exit to Vance Jackson Road
I-10 elevated levels in both directions between Fresno and I-35

welp, those are some of the roads I take to go to work.
looks like I'll be sleeping in tomorrow! :sleep :clap

[MannyIsGod]

God, KABB has the worst news.

[timvp]

It's not going to snow. This is San Antonio ... we hear the same ish every year. Add global warming, the small ice caps or whatever and the last 20 years of no snow and it'll be like every other year.

If it snows, I'll post a picture of timvp submerged in snow.

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

What about Timvp encased in ice?

[scott]

Fuck now I'm going to have 2 traffic lights to work tomorrow instead of taking the highway.

[SpursWoman]

We've got a Fordcicle & a Nissicle so far. :)

[katyon6th]

This weather makes my bones all sorts of achy. I'm getting old.

[MannyIsGod]

WTF? You're like 18.

[midgetonadonkey]

Katy is only 18?

[Extra Stout]

This weather makes my bones all sorts of achy. I'm getting old.
My ancestors in Europe put up with this crap like 24 weeks out of the year. No wonder they wanted to colonize the rest of the planet.

[timvp]

:lol

What about Timvp encased in ice?

It's gotta be snow. There's already ice out there. I just don't believe that it's going to actually snow.

If it does snow, I'll bury myself in it while holding a sign that says "Global Warming?"

:fro

[MannyIsGod]

LOL sweet.

[Duff McCartney]

I dunno if it will actually accumulate any snow. It just doesn't feel like it will accumulate any...just flurries.

[Extra Stout]

http://www.moonbattery.com/archives/Al_Gore_preaching.jpeg

[MannyIsGod]

If snow falls, it will accumulate. There will be ice on the ground, where the hell is the snow going to go?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

We've got a Fordcicle & a Ni*s*sicle so far. :)

Damn, that would have been a lot more fun with a typo SW :lol

[katyon6th]

What does crushed rock do for iced roads except cause flying crushed rocks?

[katyon6th]

Also, can someone post a link listing road closures?

Thank you.

[MannyIsGod]

It provides better traction I believe. You can probably go to any of the local news station sites and they'll have road closure info. Or you can google TXDOT.

I'm going to post some of the model graphics to show people what the latest NAM run says.

[MannyIsGod]

This is the precip for 6am tomorrow. SA looks to be getting rain at that point, maybe rain at a good clip.

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/12h/nam_pres_12h.gif

These are the temps for the same time at the surface. San Antonio looks to be way below zero. You can see the color code at the bottom. The temps are in Celsius.
http://weather.unisys.com/nam/12h/nam_sfc_12h.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/nam/12h/nam_sfc_12h.htmlhttp://weather.unisys.com/nam/12h/nam_sfc_12h.html

Here is the kicker though. This is the tempature for the air 5000 feet in the air. This needs to be below freezing for it to snow, and its not according to this model.

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/12h/nam_850_12h.gif

[katyon6th]

None of that makes sense to me. I see rainbows.

[MannyIsGod]

This is at 6pm tomorrow

It looks to still be raining/sleeting/snowing in some form

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/24h/nam_pres_24h.gif

Still below freezing

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/24h/nam_sfc_24h.htmlhttp://weather.unisys.com/nam/24h/nam_sfc_24h.htmlhttp://weather.unisys.com/nam/24h/nam_sfc_24h.gif

And NOW the temp starts to drop below freezing at 5k feet. So then we would be getting snow.
http://weather.unisys.com/nam/24h/nam_850_24h.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/nam/24h/nam_850_24h.html

[exstatic]

:lmao @ LJ and his impossible snow. It snowed and stuck in 2003, Valentine's day, I think.

[Kori Ellis]

:lmao @ LJ and his impossible snow. It snowed and stuck in 2003, Valentine's day, I think.

We weren't here. We were at All-Star weekend.

[Kori Ellis]

Also, can someone post a link listing road closures?

Thank you.

http://www.woai.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3b138c5f-24e8-48e8-913e-e0e51eb754b3

They are updating that link regularly.

[exstatic]

Yippee Skip!! My boss just called, and I get a weather day!!!

[exstatic]

We weren't here. We were at All-Star weekend.
That would explain his thoughts of impossibility, then. The time before that was in 1985.

It was fucked up, though, because I was still working at Harcourt then, and we were doing a software rollout, and I had to drive in at 7:00 AM that Saturday. I'm glad it was a Saturday, because while I remember how to drive in this shit, no one else knows. I saw 5 groups of car accidents on 1604 between I35 and Bulverde road. I was driving 35 MPH in the right lane, and a few idiots were just FLYING by, only to wind up in a ditch.

[MannyIsGod]

I drove home at 6am that morning because I was working graveyard at the time. It was a really wet snow, so it melted then refroze so I had inches of ice on my car. It was a bitch just to open the door much less get it all off my car.

On the way home, I saw well over a dozen wrecks on the highway. The highways were open when I got on, and closed when I got off. I drove slow as hell, but I did hit ice and felt my car just glide at one point. Still, you could tell people just panicked a lot and the moment they did that they were toast. It was nasty.

[CubanMustGo]

This is the precip for 6am tomorrow. SA looks to be getting rain at that point, maybe rain at a good clip.


These are the temps for the same time at the surface. San Antonio looks to be way below zero. You can see the color code at the bottom. The temps are in Celsius.

Here is the kicker though. This is the tempature for the air 5000 feet in the air. This needs to be below freezing for it to snow, and its not according to this model.

Exactly what happened in Dallas this weekend. Flying out Saturday it was bizarre to see the temps climb as the plane did. The 50-degree layer was about 4-5K feet thick and that's where all the heavy rain came from. And that warm layer helped keep the ice storm from being worse up here b/c the rain actually warmed up the surface. Those poor SOBs in Oklahoma didn't have that good fortune and they have a real mess on their hands.

[Das Texan]

It's gotta be snow. There's already ice out there. I just don't believe that it's going to actually snow.

If it does snow, I'll bury myself in it while holding a sign that says "Global Warming?"

:fro


that would be awesome.

[Das Texan]

:lmao @ LJ and his impossible snow. It snowed and stuck in 2003, Valentine's day, I think.



i was in dallas.

i had just taken my orals the day before.


it was white all over. that was a fun way to start my post orals life :lol