Pomeroy Rankings

[johngateswhiteley]

...this guy is really on to something. A&M top 5, USC 26 and oklahomo state right where they should be...next to Winthrop.

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

[johngateswhiteley]

A&M is on the front page of Sportsline.com! woohoo!

[johngateswhiteley]

USC closer to top 25!

http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/gamecenter/recap/NCAAB_20070120_AZST@USC

[johngateswhiteley]

http://msn.foxsports.com/cbk/story/6384964

[MajorMike]

Pomeroy's rankings are just silly. Indy as #8? uo as #16?

If you buy into his rankings, this is your B12:
atm 16-0
KU 13-3
uo 12-4
UT 10-6
ttek 9-7 (lose @ Mizzou)
OSU 8-8 (getting swept by uo)
KState 8-8
Neb 7-9
Mizzou 6-10
ISU 4-12
BU 2-14
CU 0-16

He picks uo to win at GIA tonite 64-62.

RPI is the standard in which all basketall teams are ranked. Even on his site, he lists RPI. Like it or not RPI is to basketball what BCS is to football.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Like it or not, it's not as important to the selection committee as you think. But hey, when that's what you have to hang your hat on after you get smoked by Kansas and A&M, knock yourself out.

[johngateswhiteley]

Pomeroy's rankings are just silly. Indy as #8? uo as #16?

If you buy into his rankings, this is your B12:
atm 16-0
KU 13-3
uo 12-4
UT 10-6
ttek 9-7 (lose @ Mizzou)
OSU 8-8 (getting swept by uo)
KState 8-8
Neb 7-9
Mizzou 6-10
ISU 4-12
BU 2-14
CU 0-16

He picks uo to win at GIA tonite 64-62.

RPI is the standard in which all basketall teams are ranked. Even on his site, he lists RPI. Like it or not RPI is to basketball what BCS is to football.

looks good to me. :elephant

[MajorMike]

I believe you are completely mistaken as to how much RPI is used and tells us. I understandhow years of frustration at complete basketball futility have made you so angry, but nothing I have said belittles atm or pumps up OSU, so I see little reason for you to keep bringing up OSU's losses when I have not once pumped any of their wins(with the possible exception of the excitement of the UT game). But, hey, if it makes you feel good, go for it. Still won't make atm's SOS better, tho.

- Last year's top 4 in RPI:
Duke, Nova, UConn, Memphis - All #1 seeds
- Last year's 5-7:
Ohio State, UT, Tenn - all #2 seeds
- Iowa was 8 but got a 3 seed; UCLA (#10) got the last #2 seed after winning the P10
- Other #3 seeds all came from 3rd group of 4 (Zags, UNC) except Fla (#15) who just won the SEC
- 3 of the #4 seeds were correctly distributed according to RPI, except KU (#20) who won the B12 Tourney got a 4-seed.

In other words, the top 16 seeds were almost exactly according to RPI.

You may be able to draw the same parallel of KU last year to atm this year. KU went 13-3, tied for the B12 reg season, and won the B12 Tourney. Because of poor SOS, they were only #20 in RPI dispite winning 16 of their last 17.

atm had a poor SOS last year, as well. They finished one of the hottest teams in the nation, at RPI #44, yet were seeded #10. There were only 5 at-large teams seeded lower than them. If you look at the people around them, #45 arKy was a #8 seed, #42 Bucknell was a #9 seed.

You can not deny, that RPI is very, VERY relevant. If it wasn't, CBS, Pomeroy, USAToday, etc, all would not emulate the RPI formula to see who's going to get in and who isn't.

atm is good, never said they weren't. Since you don't have much success recently, maybe you will be happy with a #4 seed.

[johngateswhiteley]

1 UCLA 16 1 0.7170 2 0.6376
2 North Carolina 17 2 0.6792 4 0.6180
3 Arizona 13 5 0.6739 1 0.6557
4 Wisconsin 19 1 0.6668 36 0.5688
5 Pittsburgh 17 3 0.6667 5 0.6098
6 Air Force 17 2 0.6536 46 0.5616
7 Oklahoma State 15 3 0.6511 22 0.5777
8 Kentucky 15 4 0.6491 3 0.6187
9 Duke 16 3 0.6469 6 0.6028
10 Ohio State 16 3 0.6414 37 0.5681
11 Clemson 18 2 0.6396 53 0.5591
12 Oregon 18 1 0.6376 75 0.5456
13 Indiana 14 4 0.6367 25 0.5762
14 Texas Tech 14 5 0.6351 12 0.5917
15 Texas A&M 16 2 0.6347 79 0.5432

...here is the current RPI on sportsline.com. i have no problem with 15 as the Aggs will move up when they beat tech, kansas, etc.

[johngateswhiteley]

btw, Capt. Mike...Arizona won't be a #1 seed and they are in the top 4.

[MajorMike]

btw, Capt. Mike...Arizona won't be a #1 seed and they are in the top 4.

You play right into my hands here. BECAUSE of their brutal non-conf sched, they can easily be a 2 or 3 seed even if they get 3rd in the P10... because of their RPI. I am not convinced Zona hasn't completely fallen apart, but they did just play 1-loss Ore, @ SC, @ UCLA, and all 3 were damn good games. The good news is they only have 3 games left of the next 10 in the P10 that should worry them (and 2 of them are home against SC and UCLA), so their RPI will remain rock solid.

Not to mention they have a date at home against UNC this weekend.

[johngateswhiteley]

You play right into my hands here. BECAUSE of their brutal non-conf sched, they can easily be a 2 or 3 seed even if they get 3rd in the P10... because of their RPI. I am not convinced Zona hasn't completely fallen apart, but they did just play 1-loss Ore, @ SC, @ UCLA, and all 3 were damn good games. The good news is they only have 3 games left of the next 10 in the P10 that should worry them (and 2 of them are home against SC and UCLA), so their RPI will remain rock solid.

Not to mention they have a date at home against UNC this weekend.

...i didn't play into anything. there is not a chance zona gets a #1 seed...that will go to UNC, Florida, UCLA, Wisconsin, etc. and you didn't comment on A&M being #15 in this RPI.

[MajorMike]

And I also didn't comment on OSU being #7.

[johngateswhiteley]

And I also didn't comment on OSU being #7.

so what, this is a perfect example of where the RPI is worthless. kansas and A&M spank oklahomo state and the cowboys still have a higher rpi than both...stupid.

and don't compare the BCS to the RPI, thats idiotic.

[johngateswhiteley]

http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm

...in all the updated projections, A&M is a 2 seed. lets see where they are when the other analysts update their seeds. as it stands, we average a 3.

[MajorMike]

When KU has 2 bad losses at home and atm has a horrid non-conf SOS, yes. Its not totally who you beat but what you did for a whole year.

So which is more worthless, polls or RPI? RPI is stats polls are opinion.

Shouldn't Mizzou St be atop Wisconsin in the polls? They beat them.
Shouldn't KU be atop Florida in the polls? They beat them.
Shouldn't Vandy and arKy be ranked ahead of Bama in the Polls? They beat them.

Your last statement shows your ignorance. They only way it isn't just the same is that the basketball world embraces the RPI, whereas the football world hates the BCS.

[johngateswhiteley]

When KU has 2 bad losses at home and atm has a horrid non-conf SOS, yes. Its not totally who you beat but what you did for a whole year.

So which is more worthless, polls or RPI? RPI is stats polls are opinion.

Shouldn't Mizzou St be atop Wisconsin in the polls? They beat them.
Shouldn't KU be atop Florida in the polls? They beat them.
Shouldn't Vandy and arKy be ranked ahead of Bama in the Polls? They beat them.

Your last statement shows your ignorance. They only way it isn't just the same is that the basketball world embraces the RPI, whereas the football world hates the BCS.

you argued on any given day...did you not? and you have to look at the body of work. it seems quite obvious A&M and Kansas are better than oklahomo state; arguing missouri state should be ranked higher than wisconsin is idiotic as is not looking how a team won or lost. oklahomo state got annihilated, they didn't lose to the #1 team in the nation on the road by 3, and @ LSU without the big man by 12.

[MajorMike]

So which is more idiotic? RPI or polls?

[johngateswhiteley]

So which is more idiotic? RPI or polls?

they both can be. i just think its ridiculous to compare the BCS to the RPI.

[MajorMike]

Good. Then don't continually give the RPI grief and praise the polls when both are as bad as the other.

Why. Are not both the measure that a team is based on upon year's end? Are not both the accepted gauge of a team, even moreso than national polls in both cases? If there was a football playoff, would not the BCS be instrumental in determining whom gets to play in it?

Seems pretty same same to me.

[johngateswhiteley]

Good. Then don't continually give the RPI grief and praise the polls when both are as bad as the other.

Why. Are not both the measure that a team is based on upon year's end? Are not both the accepted gauge of a team, even moreso than national polls in both cases? If there was a football playoff, would not the BCS be instrumental in determining whom gets to play in it?

Seems pretty same same to me.

:wtf look capt. shit head, i think they both have their faults and they both have their strengths. however, the Polls, imo are clearly more accurate. i don't think thats very debatable.

as for the BCS and RPI:

1. there is no playoff in CFB
2. the BCS factors in human polls

[johngateswhiteley]

as i said earlier, osu is right where they should be...next to winthrop...both teams A&M's bitch.

another thing, gotta love USC as an 8th seed!

[MajorMike]

Pomeroy's rankings are just silly. Indy as #8? uo as #16?

If you buy into his rankings, this is your B12:
atm 16-0
KU 13-3
uo 12-4
UT 10-6
ttek 9-7 (lose @ Mizzou)
OSU 8-8 (getting swept by uo)
KState 8-8
Neb 7-9
Mizzou 6-10
ISU 4-12
BU 2-14
CU 0-16

He picks uo to win at GIA tonite 64-62.

RPI is the standard in which all basketall teams are ranked. Even on his site, he lists RPI. Like it or not RPI is to basketball what BCS is to football.

Ooops.

[johngateswhiteley]

2006 Pomeroy Rankings
#1 Florida
#2 t.u.
#3 ucla

2006 National Title Winner: Florida (ucla 2nd)

2005 Pomeroy Rankings
#1 Illinois
#2 North Carolina

2005 National Title Winner: North Carolina (Illinois 2nd)

2004 Pomeroy Rankings
#1 Duke
#2 Connecticut

2004 National Title Winner: Connecticut (Duke 3rd)

2003 Pomeroy Rankings
#1 Pittsburgh
#5 Syracuse

2003 National Title Winner: Syracuse

2002 Pomeroy Rankings
#1 Duke
#2 Maryland
#3 Kansas

2002 National Title Winner: Maryland (Kansas 3rd)

2001 Pomeroy Rankings
#1 Duke
#2 Arizona

2001 National Title Winner: Duke (Arizona 2nd)

2000 Pomeroy Rankings
#1 Michigan State
#4 Florida

2000 National Title Winner: Michigan State (Florida 4th)

1999 Pomeroy Rankings
#1 Duke
#2 Connecticut

1999 National Title Winner: Connecticut (Duke 2nd)

* granted, tourney play was included, but still impressive nonetheless, i'd say.

[MajorMike]

I call BS on this. Not only does he get to rank them on how they did going thru the tourney, he gets to call them all 'good wins' because they beat a tourney team. Of course they come up on top in his final ratings (or near the top) because they have beaten the 'best' teams regardless of whom they play.

Take a look back at his blogs going INTO the tourney. Last year, his ratings BEFORE it started predicted this for the dance:

Atlanta


Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Finals Champion
2 Texas 92.83% 75.00% 55.11% 34.80% 22.16% 14.05%
1 Duke 97.45% 80.24% 57.34% 32.83% 19.71% 11.77%
3 Iowa 87.08% 54.50% 21.90% 9.85% 4.46% 1.99%
4 LSU 77.23% 44.15% 17.54% 7.10% 3.03% 1.28%
12 Texas A&M 62.84% 33.86% 12.73% 4.88% 1.97% 0.79%
6 West Virginia 59.41% 27.53% 8.99% 3.31% 1.22% 0.44%
7 California 51.90% 12.36% 5.13% 1.62% 0.51% 0.16%
10 NC State 48.10% 10.88% 4.32% 1.30% 0.39% 0.12%
5 Syracuse 37.16% 15.47% 4.22% 1.17% 0.34% 0.10%
11 So. Illinois 40.59% 15.37% 3.94% 1.14% 0.33% 0.09%
9 UNC-Wilm. 53.50% 10.92% 4.07% 1.04% 0.28% 0.07%
8 George Wash. 46.50% 8.56% 2.92% 0.67% 0.16% 0.04%
13 Iona 22.77% 6.52% 1.17% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
15 Penn 7.17% 1.76% 0.33% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
14 N'western St. 12.92% 2.60% 0.28% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Southern 2.55% 0.28% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Atlanta presents the most obvious regional final in the bracket, with a Duke/Texas rematch seemingly inevitable. (Although, LSU may have a say in that.) Those of you that feel Duke should win based on its earlier 31-point drubbing of the Longhorns are using one game as evidence at the exclusion of the other 25-30 which say that this game would be at least a tossup. Interesting that the 12-seed comes in as the fifth-likeliest team to get to Indy. I think that speaks more to the weakness of seeds 5+ in the bracket.

Oakland


Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Finals Champion
4 Kansas 78.93% 54.37% 38.45% 25.92% 14.72% 9.01%
2 UCLA 95.39% 70.86% 53.75% 29.49% 14.80% 8.09%
5 Pitt 81.35% 34.47% 19.87% 10.81% 4.64% 2.19%
1 Memphis 86.40% 52.89% 22.30% 11.60% 4.70% 2.10%
8 Arkansas 72.27% 36.08% 13.45% 6.32% 2.26% 0.90%
11 San Diego St. 55.81% 34.29% 12.35% 4.17% 1.25% 0.42%
7 Marquette 62.35% 19.94% 11.30% 3.88% 1.18% 0.40%
6 Indiana 44.19% 24.66% 7.68% 2.23% 0.57% 0.16%
3 Gonzaga 56.26% 24.58% 7.06% 1.88% 0.44% 0.11%
13 Bradley 21.07% 8.23% 3.31% 1.25% 0.34% 0.10%
10 Alabama 37.65% 8.61% 3.81% 0.93% 0.20% 0.05%
14 Xavier 43.74% 16.47% 3.97% 0.88% 0.17% 0.04%
9 Bucknell 27.73% 8.15% 1.58% 0.42% 0.08% 0.02%
12 Kent State 18.65% 2.93% 0.73% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
16 Oral Roberts 13.60% 2.88% 0.32% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
15 Belmont 4.61% 0.58% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Perhaps the truest test of the adjusted efficiency formula comes in Oakland, where Memphis rates the third-most likely team to get to the Final Four (and fourth-best to win it all). Kansas would be the favorite to win the region except that they got hosed in the draw. Bradley could give them problems, and a Pitt/Kansas game would easily be the most compelling 2nd round game, with the two of them in the top 10 in Pythagorean win %. And how about the Hogs as a sleeper? Seriously, if you’re trying to win something enormous like the ESPN contest, picking Arkansas to go all the way isn’t a bad idea. Sure they’re a longshot, but not as much as most people think.

Washington


Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Finals Champion
1 UConn 94.79% 73.74% 49.55% 32.74% 20.97% 11.55%
3 North Carolina 89.81% 65.88% 49.40% 26.90% 16.03% 8.08%
4 Illinois 69.71% 41.74% 19.10% 10.52% 5.52% 2.39%
5 Washington 75.34% 39.34% 16.61% 8.55% 4.16% 1.65%
2 Tennessee 77.53% 50.47% 20.24% 7.32% 2.99% 0.97%
6 Michigan St. 58.46% 20.10% 11.29% 3.86% 1.50% 0.46%
8 Kentucky 64.43% 18.55% 7.82% 3.28% 1.28% 0.39%
7 Wichita St. 58.37% 26.14% 7.81% 2.05% 0.62% 0.14%
11 George Mason 41.54% 11.57% 5.55% 1.52% 0.48% 0.11%
13 Air Force 30.29% 12.23% 3.45% 1.25% 0.41% 0.11%
10 Seton Hall 41.63% 15.47% 3.67% 0.75% 0.18% 0.03%
9 UAB 35.57% 6.83% 1.99% 0.59% 0.16% 0.03%
12 Utah State 24.66% 6.69% 1.39% 0.38% 0.09% 0.02%
15 Winthrop 22.47% 7.93% 1.38% 0.20% 0.04% 0.00%
14 Murray St. 10.19% 2.45% 0.66% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
16 Albany 5.21% 0.88% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
In radio apearances over the past three or four weeks, I have been selling Washington as a Cinderella. Much to my surprise, the Huskies have been the trendy pick to fall in the first round. I’m a little puzzled by this. This isn’t November anymore. They’ve adjusted from the loss of last year’s stellar backcourt. Sure, they have a shaky freshman point guard, but nobody seems to hold that against Duke. Oh, Duke has J.J. Redick, you say. Actually, Brandon Roy’s offensive production has not been that much different (Roy 125.6 ORtg/27.4% Poss vs. Redick 122.1/29.4). True, UW doesn’t have a Shelden Williams-analog. But the Huskies make up for some of that with another outside shooter in Ryan Appleby. And they’re an improved defensive team from last season.

With all that said, a road to the Final Four that goes through Illinois, UConn, and UNC, seems way too rocky to have a realistic (even 8-9%) chance of getting there.

Minneapolis


Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Finals Champion
1 Villanova 96.12% 68.64% 50.72% 32.01% 17.73% 9.01%
3 Florida 83.38% 59.56% 34.03% 18.37% 8.85% 3.86%
2 Ohio State 90.75% 56.79% 32.66% 17.11% 7.97% 3.34%
7 Georgetown 63.18% 29.18% 14.57% 6.53% 2.55% 0.88%
4 Boston College 65.04% 38.44% 14.23% 6.12% 2.19% 0.69%
8 Arizona 56.56% 18.82% 10.58% 4.65% 1.70% 0.55%
5 Nevada 75.40% 39.42% 13.54% 5.44% 1.81% 0.53%
6 Oklahoma 63.10% 24.48% 9.68% 3.59% 1.14% 0.31%
9 Wisconsin 43.44% 12.18% 6.07% 2.29% 0.71% 0.19%
10 Northern Iowa 36.82% 12.64% 4.75% 1.56% 0.43% 0.10%
13 Pacific 34.96% 15.55% 3.82% 1.12% 0.26% 0.05%
11 UW-Milwaukee 36.90% 10.33% 2.89% 0.76% 0.17% 0.03%
14 So. Alabama 16.62% 5.62% 1.23% 0.25% 0.04% 0.01%
12 Montana 24.60% 6.59% 1.00% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
15 Davidson 9.25% 1.39% 0.19% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Monm./Hamp. 3.88% 0.36% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Florida got the shaft by drawing a (then-)highly-underrated Villanova in the second round. With questions about the first and third picks in this region - the health of Villanova’s Allan Ray and the complete loss of shooting touch by Ohio State’s Je’Kel Foster - this is a good opportunity for Billy Donovan to restore his post-season image.

In conclusion, this system leads one to believe that the champion will come from this group of seven: Villanova, Texas, Duke, UConn, UNC, Kansas, and UCLA. I’ll call anyone else that crashes the championship party a true Cinderella.

Not only was Florida NOT that high in his ratings... they weren't even in his top 7. According to his last quote... he had to consider Florida a cinderella.

By his ratings, the Final Four should have been UT, KU, UConn, Nova. None of those teams make the Final Four.

He even predicted UCLA to win the final game: "UCLA 61-57."

[johngateswhiteley]

hey nobody is perfect, and i already stated that he included the tourney in his rankings. i just thought, plugging in #'s and actually coming out with these teams was still sort of impressive. he uses a formula...

[MajorMike]

And his formula is almost completely based upon margin of victory. They don't care if you beat SW State for the Deaf and Blind by 60, you beat some team by 60 and by golly, that's all that matters.

[johngateswhiteley]

And his formula is almost completely based upon margin of victory. They don't care if you beat SW State for the Deaf and Blind by 60, you beat some team by 60 and by golly, that's all that matters.

wait?...so you don't think A&M is the 3rd most likely team in the country to win?

[johngateswhiteley]

http://bracketproject.atspace.com/comparison.htm

http://kenpom.com/rate.php

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=60633