FromWayDowntown
01-25-2007, 08:54 PM
John Hollinger's Western Conference All-Stars (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/allstar2007/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=WestAllStars) (insider)
West All-Stars: Tough choices at guard, forwardBy John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Welcome to the annual conundrum.
When it comes to choosing NBA All-Star teams, we've had the same pattern for about a decade now -- coaches in the West scratching their heads over whom to leave out, while those in the East have more trouble trying to find 12 men worthy of inclusion.
The disparity between the conferences becomes obvious at times like these, even if it's less so in the game itself. And it's especially glaring at the forward spot, where annually there are eight to 10 Western Conference players playing at an All-Star level but a maximum of six spots to reward them.
That said, I'm here to help. Today, I'm picking a 12-man roster for each conference to send to Vegas.
Before we get started let me explain my criteria. A player's accomplishments this season are the biggest factor, obviously, but not the only one. I'll take a player with a consistent track record of excellence over one who appears to be playing over his head, other things being equal. And I'm inclined to cut injured players some slack, provided their injuries are not part of a larger pattern.
Finally, bear in mind the NBA's rules: We have to choose a minimum of four guards, four forwards and two centers, with the last two spots available for any position.
So let's tackle the more difficult West.
The envelopes please:
WEST STARTERS
Steve Nash, G, Suns
He's got things completely backward -- usually you play like an MVP first, then you win the award.
Amazingly, Nash is putting together a career year at a soon-to-be 33. That's even more amazing when you consider we all thought he was having a career year the year before. Per 40 minutes he's averaging 21.9 points and 13.0 assists, and his 67.0 true shooting percentage leads the league; the recipient of many of his passes, Amare Stoudemire, is second.
Not only has his individual play been brilliant, but Nash's Suns look as though they might not lose a game the rest of the season.
Despite all of this, somehow the fans have avoided voting him to the starting lineup.
Kobe Bryant, G, Lakers
Maybe the knee surgery was the best thing that happened to him.
Having to play his way back into shape at the start of the year forced Bryant to dial it back and trust his teammates more, and for the first time since Shaq left he had teammates capable of stepping up to fill the void.
As a result, this is easily the best Lakers squad in the post-Shaq era, and Bryant has kept his name circulating in the MVP chase despite individual numbers that, while still spectacular, are well down from a year ago.
Dirk Nowitzki, F, Mavericks
I'd say Dirk's response to the Finals disappointment has been more than adequate.
Not only does he rank a close second to his nemesis Dwyane Wade in player efficiency rating (PER), he's also shown continued improvement at the defensive end -- the "Irk" days are long gone, folks.
As a result, the Mavs are a jaw-dropping 31-4 after their 0-4 start, and Nowitzki is the odds-on favorite to become the first Euro to win the league's MVP award.
Kevin Garnett, F, Timberwolves
Garnett is no longer in the limelight, but he's quietly putting together another great year for the Timberwolves.
He ranks fourth in PER and is second only to Denver's Marcus Camby in defensive rebound rate.
I just wish the Wolves would trade him to a contender so we could see him play in meaningful games again.
Tim Duncan, C, Spurs
Duncan is listed on the ballot as a forward, and most people still talk of him as a power forward, so let me offer this important announcement: Tim Duncan is a center.
If you made two lists, and one was "things a center does" and the second was "things Tim Duncan does", there would be 100 percent overlap. He jumps at the opening tip, he guards the opposing team's center, and the opposing team's center guards him. He is the Spurs' tallest player (even though he isn't listed as such) and their heaviest regular. He is normally paired in the frontcourt with a man who is two inches shorter, weighs 20 pounds less, and hangs out at the 3-point line. He plays the post the entire game and defends the lane at the defensive end. He's a center.
Thank you. We now return to our regular programming.
WEST SUBS
Yao Ming, C, Rockets
Despite his broken leg, Yao is a no-brainer pick as the West's second center, running roughshod over the league for 27 games before checking out with a tibia fracture.
Forget the timid Yao of yore -- this guy is an unguardable monster, and you can't foul him because he hits 86.7 percent from the line.
If he could have stayed healthy for the full season, we'd be talking about him with Nash and Nowitski for MVP.
Amare Stoudemire, C, Suns
There's no rule saying we can't take three centers, especially when the third one is playing as well as Stoudemire.
STAT is back, everyone, and it would be more obvious if he was averaging more then 30 minutes a game. His 40-minute numbers of 24.9 points, 12.1 boards and 60.2 percent shooting are hard to ignore. And as I mentioned above, Stoudemire is second in the league in true shooting percentage.
Better yet, he's taken a far greater interest in defense of late, helping propel Phoenix to a top 10 rating in defensive efficiency, so there's really no excuse to keep him off the team.
Carlos Boozer, F, Jazz
Among a very crowded forward field in the West, Boozer still stands out above the crowd.
Finally healthy, Boozer has provided a steady dose of post offense and dominating board work to keep the Jazz on top of the Northwest Division. Boozer's 40-minute numbers are sick -- 23.2 points, 12.8 boards, 56.2 percent shooting -- and he hasn't missed a game.
Elton Brand, F, Clippers
If there's one thing Western Conference coaches know how to do, it's screw Elton Brand out of an All-Star bid -- they've done it four of the past five years (though in 2002 an injury gave them a mulligan and he made the team as a replacement).
Once again, he deserves to be there, and I'm hoping the coaches will recognize this, too. While his production is down from his awesome campaign of a year ago, it remains more than good enough to crack the West's top 12 -- he's shooting 55.7 percent, scoring 21.8 points per 40 minutes and blocking two shots a night.
Because of that, he noses out Phoenix's Shawn Marion, Dallas' Josh Howard and Portland's Zach Randolph for the final forward spot.
Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
The punch-and-run move in Madison Square Garden was bush league, but Anthony's play before and after his 15-game ban has been so brilliant that it's impossible to ignore his credentials.
He's leading the NBA in scoring at 31.6 per game, and he's doing it efficiently too, hitting 49.7 percent from the floor and 81.4 percent from the line.
Overall, his 26.10 PER ranks third in the league. It would be completely unprecedented for a player of such quality to be kept out of this contest.
Manu Ginobili, G, Spurs
The rules require us to select two backup guards, which is a shame because Howard, Marion and Randolph are better than any of the guards I have to choose from.
But if I have to choose two more backcourt players, there's a crowded field to pick from. Ginobili and teammate Tony Parker, Seattle's Ray Allen, the Hornets' Chris Paul, Denver's Allen Iverson, Houston's Tracy McGrady, Sacramento's Kevin Martin, and Golden State's Baron Davis all can make a case for inclusion.
Among this group, Ginobili is a relatively easy first pick, even though the Spurs play him only 27.9 minutes per game to ease the wear and tear. That means his per-game averages don't stand out, but per minute this is the best year of his career. He's averaging 23.4 points per 40 minutes, rebounding like a small forward and stroking it at 41.7 percent from downtown.
Capping it off, he is also easily the best defensive player in the group, something for which he doesn't get nearly enough credit.
Tony Parker, G, Spurs
Now we're really splitting hairs.
If I had to choose the best player from among the remaining group, I'd probably go with Paul. But he's missed 14 games (and might not even be ready by All-Star weekend) -- if we take into account those missed games, that's a small demerit. Also, the difference between him and Parker in PER is less than a point.
Allen also deserves consideration, but he or Martin is the worst defender of the group, and besides I'm still seething from the coaches' indefensible selection of Allen over Paul a year ago.
So we're down to Parker, Iverson, McGrady, Martin and Davis. McGrady missed time with injuries and that's part of the annual trend, so we can't dismiss it. Nix him. Davis is last among the group in PER and nobody much likes to play with him. Nix. Martin is a poor defender and I'd like to see him keep this up for more than half a season. Nix.
So it's down to Iverson and Parker. There's essentially no difference in PER, and the time Iverson missed while Philly was trying to deal him shouldn't be held against him, in my opinion.
But Parker is the better defender and the more durable of the two, so in what basically amounts to a coin-toss I'll go with him for the final spot.
REALITY CHECK
In this section, let's look at how my ballot syncs up with what's possible, factoring in the actual voting and injuries. Two problems complicate our roster.
One is at guard, where McGrady or Iverson will beat out Nash for a starting job in the fan vote. That requires us to ditch one guard from the end of the roster, so it's au revoir, Mr. Longoria.
Because both T-Mac and A.I. were finalists for the roster anyway, we don't mind the replacement so much, but it's the starting nod that's irritating.
The second issue is Yao, who it appears won't be back from his broken leg until March and sure as heck isn't about to go for a test drive in an All-Star Game. Additionally, Yao was voted in as the starting center, while Duncan's likely to be voted in as one of the starting forwards. This presents a second issue, as we have to shift some positions around.
Fortunately, we already have put Stoudemire on our team as a backup center, so it's really just a question of adding another player to the roster to take Yao's spot. This comes down to Howard, Marion and Randolph.
Randolph can be knocked out on two counts: One, this year is far better than his career norms, and I'd like to see him keep it up for more than half a season. The second, bigger reason is Randolph's near-total dereliction of duty at the defensive end. He has the best stats and PER of the three, but I don't think anybody in the league would trade Marion or Howard for Zach.
So it's down to Marion and Howard. Howard ranks slightly ahead in PER, but he's played fewer games and fewer minutes per game. Both players are good defenders, too, so I can't get much traction in that comparison.
In the end, it comes down to this: Marion puts up these numbers year after year, while Howard has never approached this level before. Because of that, I have more belief that this is Marion's true level of ability than Howard's, so I'll take him by a whisker.
But in reality, both players probably will make it when the coaches screw Brand again, so it might end up being a moot point.
West All-Stars: Tough choices at guard, forwardBy John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Welcome to the annual conundrum.
When it comes to choosing NBA All-Star teams, we've had the same pattern for about a decade now -- coaches in the West scratching their heads over whom to leave out, while those in the East have more trouble trying to find 12 men worthy of inclusion.
The disparity between the conferences becomes obvious at times like these, even if it's less so in the game itself. And it's especially glaring at the forward spot, where annually there are eight to 10 Western Conference players playing at an All-Star level but a maximum of six spots to reward them.
That said, I'm here to help. Today, I'm picking a 12-man roster for each conference to send to Vegas.
Before we get started let me explain my criteria. A player's accomplishments this season are the biggest factor, obviously, but not the only one. I'll take a player with a consistent track record of excellence over one who appears to be playing over his head, other things being equal. And I'm inclined to cut injured players some slack, provided their injuries are not part of a larger pattern.
Finally, bear in mind the NBA's rules: We have to choose a minimum of four guards, four forwards and two centers, with the last two spots available for any position.
So let's tackle the more difficult West.
The envelopes please:
WEST STARTERS
Steve Nash, G, Suns
He's got things completely backward -- usually you play like an MVP first, then you win the award.
Amazingly, Nash is putting together a career year at a soon-to-be 33. That's even more amazing when you consider we all thought he was having a career year the year before. Per 40 minutes he's averaging 21.9 points and 13.0 assists, and his 67.0 true shooting percentage leads the league; the recipient of many of his passes, Amare Stoudemire, is second.
Not only has his individual play been brilliant, but Nash's Suns look as though they might not lose a game the rest of the season.
Despite all of this, somehow the fans have avoided voting him to the starting lineup.
Kobe Bryant, G, Lakers
Maybe the knee surgery was the best thing that happened to him.
Having to play his way back into shape at the start of the year forced Bryant to dial it back and trust his teammates more, and for the first time since Shaq left he had teammates capable of stepping up to fill the void.
As a result, this is easily the best Lakers squad in the post-Shaq era, and Bryant has kept his name circulating in the MVP chase despite individual numbers that, while still spectacular, are well down from a year ago.
Dirk Nowitzki, F, Mavericks
I'd say Dirk's response to the Finals disappointment has been more than adequate.
Not only does he rank a close second to his nemesis Dwyane Wade in player efficiency rating (PER), he's also shown continued improvement at the defensive end -- the "Irk" days are long gone, folks.
As a result, the Mavs are a jaw-dropping 31-4 after their 0-4 start, and Nowitzki is the odds-on favorite to become the first Euro to win the league's MVP award.
Kevin Garnett, F, Timberwolves
Garnett is no longer in the limelight, but he's quietly putting together another great year for the Timberwolves.
He ranks fourth in PER and is second only to Denver's Marcus Camby in defensive rebound rate.
I just wish the Wolves would trade him to a contender so we could see him play in meaningful games again.
Tim Duncan, C, Spurs
Duncan is listed on the ballot as a forward, and most people still talk of him as a power forward, so let me offer this important announcement: Tim Duncan is a center.
If you made two lists, and one was "things a center does" and the second was "things Tim Duncan does", there would be 100 percent overlap. He jumps at the opening tip, he guards the opposing team's center, and the opposing team's center guards him. He is the Spurs' tallest player (even though he isn't listed as such) and their heaviest regular. He is normally paired in the frontcourt with a man who is two inches shorter, weighs 20 pounds less, and hangs out at the 3-point line. He plays the post the entire game and defends the lane at the defensive end. He's a center.
Thank you. We now return to our regular programming.
WEST SUBS
Yao Ming, C, Rockets
Despite his broken leg, Yao is a no-brainer pick as the West's second center, running roughshod over the league for 27 games before checking out with a tibia fracture.
Forget the timid Yao of yore -- this guy is an unguardable monster, and you can't foul him because he hits 86.7 percent from the line.
If he could have stayed healthy for the full season, we'd be talking about him with Nash and Nowitski for MVP.
Amare Stoudemire, C, Suns
There's no rule saying we can't take three centers, especially when the third one is playing as well as Stoudemire.
STAT is back, everyone, and it would be more obvious if he was averaging more then 30 minutes a game. His 40-minute numbers of 24.9 points, 12.1 boards and 60.2 percent shooting are hard to ignore. And as I mentioned above, Stoudemire is second in the league in true shooting percentage.
Better yet, he's taken a far greater interest in defense of late, helping propel Phoenix to a top 10 rating in defensive efficiency, so there's really no excuse to keep him off the team.
Carlos Boozer, F, Jazz
Among a very crowded forward field in the West, Boozer still stands out above the crowd.
Finally healthy, Boozer has provided a steady dose of post offense and dominating board work to keep the Jazz on top of the Northwest Division. Boozer's 40-minute numbers are sick -- 23.2 points, 12.8 boards, 56.2 percent shooting -- and he hasn't missed a game.
Elton Brand, F, Clippers
If there's one thing Western Conference coaches know how to do, it's screw Elton Brand out of an All-Star bid -- they've done it four of the past five years (though in 2002 an injury gave them a mulligan and he made the team as a replacement).
Once again, he deserves to be there, and I'm hoping the coaches will recognize this, too. While his production is down from his awesome campaign of a year ago, it remains more than good enough to crack the West's top 12 -- he's shooting 55.7 percent, scoring 21.8 points per 40 minutes and blocking two shots a night.
Because of that, he noses out Phoenix's Shawn Marion, Dallas' Josh Howard and Portland's Zach Randolph for the final forward spot.
Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
The punch-and-run move in Madison Square Garden was bush league, but Anthony's play before and after his 15-game ban has been so brilliant that it's impossible to ignore his credentials.
He's leading the NBA in scoring at 31.6 per game, and he's doing it efficiently too, hitting 49.7 percent from the floor and 81.4 percent from the line.
Overall, his 26.10 PER ranks third in the league. It would be completely unprecedented for a player of such quality to be kept out of this contest.
Manu Ginobili, G, Spurs
The rules require us to select two backup guards, which is a shame because Howard, Marion and Randolph are better than any of the guards I have to choose from.
But if I have to choose two more backcourt players, there's a crowded field to pick from. Ginobili and teammate Tony Parker, Seattle's Ray Allen, the Hornets' Chris Paul, Denver's Allen Iverson, Houston's Tracy McGrady, Sacramento's Kevin Martin, and Golden State's Baron Davis all can make a case for inclusion.
Among this group, Ginobili is a relatively easy first pick, even though the Spurs play him only 27.9 minutes per game to ease the wear and tear. That means his per-game averages don't stand out, but per minute this is the best year of his career. He's averaging 23.4 points per 40 minutes, rebounding like a small forward and stroking it at 41.7 percent from downtown.
Capping it off, he is also easily the best defensive player in the group, something for which he doesn't get nearly enough credit.
Tony Parker, G, Spurs
Now we're really splitting hairs.
If I had to choose the best player from among the remaining group, I'd probably go with Paul. But he's missed 14 games (and might not even be ready by All-Star weekend) -- if we take into account those missed games, that's a small demerit. Also, the difference between him and Parker in PER is less than a point.
Allen also deserves consideration, but he or Martin is the worst defender of the group, and besides I'm still seething from the coaches' indefensible selection of Allen over Paul a year ago.
So we're down to Parker, Iverson, McGrady, Martin and Davis. McGrady missed time with injuries and that's part of the annual trend, so we can't dismiss it. Nix him. Davis is last among the group in PER and nobody much likes to play with him. Nix. Martin is a poor defender and I'd like to see him keep this up for more than half a season. Nix.
So it's down to Iverson and Parker. There's essentially no difference in PER, and the time Iverson missed while Philly was trying to deal him shouldn't be held against him, in my opinion.
But Parker is the better defender and the more durable of the two, so in what basically amounts to a coin-toss I'll go with him for the final spot.
REALITY CHECK
In this section, let's look at how my ballot syncs up with what's possible, factoring in the actual voting and injuries. Two problems complicate our roster.
One is at guard, where McGrady or Iverson will beat out Nash for a starting job in the fan vote. That requires us to ditch one guard from the end of the roster, so it's au revoir, Mr. Longoria.
Because both T-Mac and A.I. were finalists for the roster anyway, we don't mind the replacement so much, but it's the starting nod that's irritating.
The second issue is Yao, who it appears won't be back from his broken leg until March and sure as heck isn't about to go for a test drive in an All-Star Game. Additionally, Yao was voted in as the starting center, while Duncan's likely to be voted in as one of the starting forwards. This presents a second issue, as we have to shift some positions around.
Fortunately, we already have put Stoudemire on our team as a backup center, so it's really just a question of adding another player to the roster to take Yao's spot. This comes down to Howard, Marion and Randolph.
Randolph can be knocked out on two counts: One, this year is far better than his career norms, and I'd like to see him keep it up for more than half a season. The second, bigger reason is Randolph's near-total dereliction of duty at the defensive end. He has the best stats and PER of the three, but I don't think anybody in the league would trade Marion or Howard for Zach.
So it's down to Marion and Howard. Howard ranks slightly ahead in PER, but he's played fewer games and fewer minutes per game. Both players are good defenders, too, so I can't get much traction in that comparison.
In the end, it comes down to this: Marion puts up these numbers year after year, while Howard has never approached this level before. Because of that, I have more belief that this is Marion's true level of ability than Howard's, so I'll take him by a whisker.
But in reality, both players probably will make it when the coaches screw Brand again, so it might end up being a moot point.