Two Weeks Which May Change the World

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Two Weeks Which May Change the World
Rich Galen
Wednesday November 10, 2004

· Sometimes there is a confluence of events which, by themselves are important, but taken as a group are nothing less than seismic.

· Here are four such events which may well make November, 2004 an historic month: George W. Bush was re-elected President. Yasser Arafat will have died. The battle for Fallujah will be successfully prosecuted.. The Iranians appear to be moving toward an agreement on controlling their nukes.

· President Bush, building on a clear win along with additional GOP strength in the US House and Senate, will set a clear path for America. Clarity of purpose during a time of war is crucial in dealing with friends and foes alike.

· While our some-time allies in Europe pretend that the black-and-white view of the war on terror with which they view President Bush is too simplistic for their tastes, it does allow them to understand where America is likely to go and to decide whether they want to come along.

· Yasser Arafat dying has nothing to do with the re-election of the President, of course. But what happens next will absolutely be influenced by it. If John Kerry had been elected, the Palestinians would be much more likely to wait until late January, when Mr. Kerry would have been inaugurated, then await signals from a Kerry foreign policy/national security team about how much more negotiating room they might get.

· With President Bush remaining in the Oval Office, it is far more likely that the new Palestinian leadership in the post-Arafat era will be looking for the best deal it can get, as soon as it can get it.

SIDEBAR:
The vision of Jacques Chirac – who waited a full week to congratulate President Bush – all but keening and sobbing with grief at the foot of Arafat’s hospital bed makes us wonder what Chirac believes is in this for him.
END SIDEBAR

· The battle for Fallujah will be successful. Iraqi forces are fully involved with US Marine and Army elements and are, by all indications, performing very well. Whether we catch and/or kill Abu al-Zarqawi in Fallujah, or in Ramadi, or not at all this month, the operation will establish that the coalition forces are serious about ridding Iraq of the terrorists who have no goal but the destabilization of the nation.

· It also further establishes the authority of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi over events in Iraq. His government now has enough confidence in its ability to manage political activities in Iraq to agree to the military operations. Five months ago, that was not the case.
· This is a big deal as they move toward the elections in late January 2005.

· Nothing in that region happens in a vacuum so it is not an accident that the well-telegraphed operation in Fallujah is coincident with Iran’s possible agreement to cease development of weapons grade enriched uranium.

· The theocracy in Iran may well be in jeopardy over the medium term in any event, but a successful transition to democracy in Iraq – its next-door neighbor – would certainly not be a good sign for the Mullahs ability to maintain power in Tehran.

· The only one of these four events which is at issue is the Iranian piece. If it doesn’t happen this week, and if it doesn’t happen the way it appears to be going this week their nuclear program will be disabled in the near future.

· Events which are important in their own right, taken together, can change the flow of history. Take notes this fortnight. You may be witnessing such a confluence.

[Nbadan]

Here are four such events which may well make November, 2004 an historic month: George W. Bush was re-elected President. Yasser Arafat will have died. The battle for Fallujah will be successfully prosecuted.. The Iranians appear to be moving toward an agreement on controlling their nukes.

George W Bush stole the 2004 election as he did the 2000 election. He may be your President, but he's not my President. If you believe in his policies so much then why aren't you out there signing up for the Army, Marines or Reserves to support W's jihad? That is, unless your a chicken-hawk like the policy-makers in the administration who have gotten us into a Civil war we can't win either way.

We are killing women, children, the sick and elderly in Fallujah. This is not the way to win the hearts and minds of Iraqis. Meanwhile, the few Arab fighters and nationalists who are fighting the Marines will just melt away into the general population and live to fight another day in Ramadi, Baghdad, Mosuel, and in the rest of Iraq. The Marines who stay in Fallujah will be sitting ducks, or if they leave, the insurgents will be back within days. We should have negotiated. The administration doesn't understand that we are fighting a war of attrition and the Iraqis have a lot of patience and are willing to take a lot of casualties and fatalities. Israel lost the infauda in Lebonon, if we stay in Iraq we will lose the peace in Baghdad and in the rest of Iraq and the Middle East.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

he's not my President.

Good, then move to Canada, prick.


If you believe in his policies so much then why aren't you out there signing up for the Army, Marines or Reserves to support W's jihad?

I'm actually trying to get a job with civilian side of Navy Intel, DIA, or the NSA, and if that doesn't work out my fallback is OCS via either Navy, AF, or Marines, so fuck off bitch. It'd be a done deal if there was any place here in Texas I could learn Arabic.

If you believe his policies are so wrong, why aren't you over there in Iraq with Zarqawi telling the world how wrong we are? I even offered to pony up for the airline ticket.


We are killing women, children, the sick and elderly in Fallujah.

Says who? The insurgents? Where's your proof, outside the Chinese commie newspaper you linked earlier today?


Meanwhile, the few Arab fighters and nationalists who are fighting the Marines will just melt away into the general population and live to fight another day in Ramadi, Baghdad, Mosuel, and in the rest of Iraq.

You don't get it do you? The insurgents are really starting to piss off the common Iraqi because who are they killing, who is actually taking higher casualty numbers than the Americans? Answer: the Iraqi citizens who are trying to make their country a better place.

The insurgents are getting increasingly desperate, they're even having to get Saudi clerics to try and garner support/manpower to go help in Iraq, because our Marines and Army are accomodating their wishes to "martyr" themselves and go see Allah.


The Marines who stay in Fallujah will be sitting ducks, or if they leave, the insurgents will be back within days.

Says you. I know some guys (hint, US military) who have the past experiences of several wars via military history that say otherwise.



We should have negotiated.

See, this is where you prove you're a fucking idiot. You can't negotiate with these fuckers. The only negotiating they understand is an M16 round between the eyes, which we are glady obliging them with in Fallujah as we speak.

Good God Dan, you sat here the other day and said you knew more about the Mideast than all of us combined, your comment that we should "negotiate" proves how far you have your head up your fucking ass.

You want to negotiate? Fine. Let me break out Osama's wishlist...

1. US withdraw support for Israel. Israel ceases to exist. New Muslim Palestinian state born. Done with that? Alright...

2. US and western interests (economic and military) completely withdraw from the entire Arabian peninsula and Middle East. Done?

3. End of "atrocities" (read, sane people stopping genocidal murdering by Muslims) in Kashmir, Chechnya, Xinjiang, Phillipines, Sudan.

4. US withdraw completely from Afghanistan and Iraq.

5. Oil prices go up to about $150 a barrel, their "rightful cost". Osama and Co. currently feel US friendly autocracies in the Middle East are subsidizing Western oil prices via poverty of their people.

6. US quits "propping" up several autocratic regimes in the Middle East where "corrupt" rulers are in cohorts with the West and persecuting their own people (say goodbye to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, UAE).

You want to negotiate all that Dan? Go ahead, you'd definitely be the biggest loser in the history of the fucking world. Nice legacy.



The administration doesn't understand that we are fighting a war of attrition and the Iraqis have a lot of patience and are willing to take a lot of casualties and fatalities.

The administration understands it perfectly fine. Unfortunately they have all these rules of engagements for our troops designed to limit civilian casualties so sackless wonders like you don't bitch and moan. Fuck, we could largely end this nonsense by dropping a nuke in Western Pakistan/East Afghanistan, but world opinion would scream forever.

The irony is, we are facing an enemy that will fight until we make our point (read kill enough of them) that they no longer want to fight. Heard that before? I have. Japan, WWII, and it took two nukes to get them to the negotiating table.



Israel lost the infauda in Lebonon, if we stay in Iraq we will lose the peace in Baghdad and in the rest of Iraq and the Middle East

First off, Mr. Self Proclaimed "Middle East Expert", it's intifada, not infauda. Way to go rookie. Second off, Israel didn't lose anything, they withdrew to fight another day. And look where it's got them... the majority of Hamas' leadership is gone, Arafat just kicked the bucket, and the high ups in the PLO are already talking about the possibility of peace with Israel. Yeah, sucks to be Israel :rolleyes

You don't get it do you? (don't answer, I already know). Have you seen what happened in Afghanistan? Elections, elected rulers, freedom (they even had a woman running, which in a Muslim country some would say is very screwed up).

It's the same thing that will happen in Iraq. Once elections occur, we get more troops trained who can take over their nation's security, and we begin to withdraw both from national leadership (after elections) and militarily (after troops are trained), Iraqis will see that we don't intend to occupy after all, and you'll see insurgent punks like Zarqawi hanging from corner light posts.

Dan, do yourself a favor and just shut the fuck up until you go do some reading (real books, not the Chinese News and salon.org) and get some facts under your belt.

I kinda feel bad after this post, because I'm all about a fair fight usually but in this case you've come unarmed in the intelligence/knowledge department.

Negotiate with the terrorists, holy shit that's a good one...

:lmao

"Um, Mr. Zarqawi, this is the Marine Expeditionary Force commander outside Fallujah. I was wondering if you would stop shooting at us and talk for a few minutes." :lol

Tell me you're just trying to take an opposing viewpoint for the sake of argument, and that you're really not that stupid.

[Nbadan]

If you believe his policies are so wrong, why aren't you over there in Iraq with Zarqawi telling the world how wrong we are? I even offered to pony up for the airline ticket.

So cause I don't agree with you and George Bush on Iraq policy, I am allied with Al-Zarqawi? A dead man? Makes sense considering members of the W adminstration have also accused teachers and postal workers of being terrorists too.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I never said you were allied with Zarqawi. Just if you feel bush is Satan, we're killing innocents over there, go prove it.

Shit, you don't even have to go see Zarqawi, just go over there and find me proof we're deliberately killing women, children, elderly, etc. etc. (insert your liberal communist bullshit accusations here).

[Nbadan]

Says who? The insurgents? Where's your proof, outside the Chinese commie newspaper you linked earlier today?

Do the math yourself. 100,000 Fallujah civilians still in the city. American planes destroying complete neighborhoods in a matter of seconds. No clean water, no food, no hospitals or even rescuers to dig up the already dead and dying. The streets littered with pieces of flesh and burnt limbs. Nevermind, I'm sure the civilians left in Fallujah are having a cheery time!

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

My math says that there was 50,000 in the city tops at the start of the American operation.

American planes are not destroying complete neighborhoods, only buildings where insurgents are shooting from.

Hospitals, rescuers? There was a nice story (already buried today seeings it's positive) of American troops bringing women and children out of the northern part of the city to tent cities set up by American forces, as well as taken the injured to the hospital in western Fallujah.

As for the body parts nonsense, where else did you expect the insurgents body parts to go?

Nevermind, I see you're still a bitter, cowardly, anti-American, pro-Al Qaeda, full of shit loser.

[Nbadan]

Shit, you don't even have to go see Zarqawi, just go over there and find me proof we're deliberately killing women, children, elderly, etc. etc. (insert your liberal communist bullshit accusations here).

There you go making assertions out of what I am saying again. I never said that our troops were intentionally targeting innocent civilians, and I have never said that at all. What I am saying is that civilians will die because in wars, they always do, and they always do in larger numbers than combatants from either side that are at war.

I am saying that this could have been a great diplomatic victory for W if he could have dealt with this Sunni problem in any other way than war, but the NeoCons leading the war simply got impatient with the peace negotiations because they are on a deadline to have an election by January to make a political statement for George Bush and the Republican party. In doing so they have sabotaged any chance of ever negotiating with the Sunnis, even though realistically, it's the only way to avoid a Civil War in Iraq after our troops leave.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

What I am saying is that civilians will die because in wars, they always do

Well, we're at war, so what's your fucking problem? All I see you doing is calling our troops butcheres and murders on here, so I apologize for making the reach that you blame them for it, when you have said you blame them and Bush for it.

I am saying you are a dumbass, we sat around and pissed up a rope vis-a-vis "Sunni diplomacy" for the last twelve years. The Sunnis have warred with anyone and everyone for 1400 years, I don't know why the hell you think it's going to stop.

The elections aren't a political statement by Bush. For someone who wants our troops home sooner I can't believe you're that ignorant of things.

The sooner the Iraqis have national elections, pick THEIR people, make their own VOTES and preferences known, coupled with us training sufficient numbers of troops, we can follow through with our promise to the Iraqi people of being liberators and not occupiers, as we start to withdraw.

Hence, Iraqis get more control of their country. Iraqis realize the foreign fighting insurgents saying we want to colonize Iraq are full of shit and kick them out or kill them. We start bringing troops home. ME is a better place.

Your problem is you are so blinded for your absolute hate of Bush, you can't see anything for what it really is, instead applying this assenine political tie-in with Bush.