CubanMustGo
02-08-2007, 12:18 AM
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2757049&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab3pos1
John Hollinger's "Least Improved Team," our boy Beno ranks #9:
9. Beno Udrih, Spurs
Udrih played very well last year in limited minutes but inexplicably sat while veteran retread Nick Van Exel imploded in the postseason. This year the Spurs rectified that mistake, promoting Udrih to No. 2 behind Tony Parker, but Udrih seemingly has gone out of his way to make them regret it.
He's down to 35.4 percent from the floor, which is tough to live with given his shaky defense, and after solid campaigns in his first two pro seasons, his PER is down to single digits this year.
Ducks will be happy to hear that #2 is none other than LeBron James. Here's the list:
Most disappointing players: 2005-06 PER vs. 2006-07 PER
1. Andrei Kirilenko 20.71 14.24 -6.47
2. LeBron James 28.17 23.96 -4.21
3. Mike James 19.88 13.16 -6.72
4. Jameer Nelson 19.55 15.30 -4.25
5. Joel Przybilla 15.32 7.70 -7.62
6. Dan Gadzuric 17.28 9.89 -7.39
7. Boris Diaw 17.31 13.00 -4.31
8. Larry Hughes 14.08 12.12 -1.96
9. Beno Udrih 15.28 9.09 -6.19
10. Marquis Daniels 15.00 10.12 -4.88
11. Hedo Turkoglu 16.80 12.17 -4.63
12. Chris Kaman 15.01 11.74 -3.27
13. Jason Collins 5.49 2.97 -2.52
14. Ben Wallace 17.54 14.38 -3.16
15. Antoine Walker 14.47 10.22 -4.25
1. Andrei Kirilenko, Jazz
An All-Star caliber player over the last four seasons, Kirilenko has suddenly turned into a mediocre role player. Kirilenko seems utterly lost in the Jazz offense, mostly relying on his very shaky jump shot, and has been a far less capable shot blocker than in previous seasons -- perhaps because he has to play on the perimeter more with Carlos Boozer back in the fray.
His woes aren't lessening any as the season goes on -- he's cleared 11 points exactly once in his last 16 games. His struggles have brought up trade rumors, but as our Marc Stein pointed out recently, who'd take him right now?
2. LeBron James, Cavaliers
James was my pick for MVP a year ago, and like many I thought he'd pretty much take over the league this season. What we've seen instead is a surprising slip backward, including a dip in scoring numbers and a puzzling slump from the free-throw line.
It's easy to blame exhaustion from the world championship, but Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki played in the same tournament, and both are dominating. A better explanation might be Cleveland's lack of a real point guard, which doesn't allow James to play off the ball more.
3. Mike James, Timberwolves
Continuing the theme of "disappointments named James" -- this one perhaps was more expected -- according to a concept of mine called the Fluke Rule, 90 percent of players who see large one-year PER jumps after age 28 fall right back down to Earth the next year.
James was 30 last season and his PER went up over three points, making him a textbook case. But James has done the rule one better by descending below even his previous norms, and as another minus he's become a liability at the defensive end.
4. Jameer Nelson, Magic
Orlando thought it had a rising star on its hands after Nelson's breakout 2005-06 season, but his third season hasn't been nearly as impressive. Nelson suffered a plague of turnovers at the start of the season and hasn't shot as consistently as he did a year ago, especially on 3-pointers. He's lost 1.6 points per game off his average despite a slight uptick in minutes. His assists are down too, which can't be making Dwight Howard happy.
5. Joel Przybilla, Trail Blazers
Przybilla had a nasty injury at the start of the season, so I'll cut him a bit of slack, but even after returning he's struggled. Struggled might not be the word, actually -- his PER is barely half of what it was last season, the biggest drop of any player besides Richardson. Per 40 minutes he's scoring less than half as much as a year ago, and his turnover rate has skyrocketed to an unacceptable 27.8 -- tied with Dallas' DeSagana Diop for the league's worst.
All in all, not a great way to reward the Blazers for giving him a five-year, $32 million deal over the summer.
6. Dan Gadzuric, Bucks
Half of the fans don't even know this guy exists, but Gadzuric was an extremely effective energy guy off the bench the last three seasons. With the departure of Jamaal Magloire, I figured this season would be a golden opportunity for him to establish himself as one of the game's better young centers. Instead he's established himself as one of the league's most unmovable contracts, with $30 million left on his deal and a single-digit PER.
He's struggled enough to play his way out of Milwaukee's big-man rotation, a difficult feat considering the Bucks' poor frontcourt, and won't be back in it for a while since he's out with a separated shoulder.
7. Boris Diaw, Suns
Diaw showed up in preseason out of shape and got off to a slow start, but even with improved conditioning he's not making the same impact he did a year ago. Per 40 minutes, he's down 2.6 points and 2.2 rebounds from last season, but making 0.2 more turnovers.
His blocks and steals are way down, too, a sign that perhaps his fitness level remains less than optimal. It's easy to say now that perhaps he was playing over his head in 2005-06, but I'm sure the Suns would have liked that information before signing him to a five-year, $45 million extension.
8. Larry Hughes, Cavaliers
Hughes' numbers aren't as far down from a year ago as some of the other players on this list, nor as much as teammate Zydrunas Ilgauskas' for that matter. So why single him out? Because we thought last year was the off year; this was supposed to be Hughes' bounce-back season.
Instead he's been even worse, with his per-minute numbers down across the board and his trademark free-throw drawing skill in serious remission, and that's been as big a reason for Cleveland's struggles as King James' unexpected production dip.
9. Beno Udrih, Spurs
Udrih played very well last year in limited minutes but inexplicably sat while veteran retread Nick Van Exel imploded in the postseason. This year the Spurs rectified that mistake, promoting Udrih to No. 2 behind Tony Parker, but Udrih seemingly has gone out of his way to make them regret it.
He's down to 35.4 percent from the floor, which is tough to live with given his shaky defense, and after solid campaigns in his first two pro seasons, his PER is down to single digits this year.
10. Marquis Daniels, Pacers
The Pacers thought they were getting an up-and-comer when they got Daniels from Dallas in the offseason, but he's struggled and has lost the confidence of Indy coach Rick Carlisle. The weird thing in his case is that his scoring numbers are down only slightly; it's the rebounds and assists that have tanked.
I don't have a good explanation -- Daniels is only 25 and began his career with three solid NBA seasons -- but it's costing him a great opportunity to take over the Pacers' starting shooting guard spot.
11. Hedo Turkoglu, Magic
Turkoglu was one of the keys to the Magic's strong finish a year ago, but he has struggled to keep up the momentum this season. He's shooting a career-low 40.6 percent, and despite standing 6-foot-10 has been one of the most ineffective players at his position on the glass.
He's matching his career high in one category, though: turnovers. Don't be shocked if Trevor Ariza takes his job when he returns from injury; the high-flyer has been vastly more effective.
12. Chris Kaman, Clippers
Another guy whose 2005-06 breakout seems to be short-lived, Kaman's statistical dip hasn't been as severe as that of some other players on the list. But his strong playoffs and big offseason extension (five years, $52 million) created expectations that he's come nowhere close to satisfying, mainly because his 52.3 percent shooting mark from a year ago now looks flukishly high -- he's down to 44.6 percent this year.
13. Jason Collins, Nets
Collins falls in Hughes' category -- we thought the big drop off came a year ago and there'd be a rebound this season. Instead, the freefall continues unimpeded. Collins' impossibly low PER of 2.97 isn't just the lowest in the league this season -- it's the worst of any player in the past two decades. Only Michael Curry in 2003-04 and Nikoloz Tskitishvili in 2002-03 have managed to play more than 1,000 minutes in a season with a PER below five; it appears Collins will be joining the club.
Collins already owned the worst PER of any player to play more than 1,500 minutes since 1987; at his current pace he'll shatter his own record.
14. Ben Wallace, Bulls
The four-time Defensive Player of the Year has almost no chance of making it five, as he's begun showing his age at 32. Wallace's offensive numbers are down, yes, but the Bulls can live with that. The bigger disappointments have been his rebounds, blocks and steals, all of which have dipped from a year ago (Bulls fans will say he's playing fewer minutes than last season, but they're coming at a much faster pace, so it's roughly a wash in terms of possessions).
As a result, the Bulls aren't quite the dominating defensive force they hoped to become when they inked Big Ben to a four-year, $60 million deal this summer -- yes, they're No. 2 in defensive efficiency, but the idea was that they'd be a runaway No. 1.
15. Antoine Walker, Heat
We had to anticipate a little slippage from Miami's vets this season due to the championship hangover effect, but that doesn't mean we should have expected Walker's 3-point Brick-O-Rama extravaganza. He's making only 29.0 percent of his attempts from downtown, which makes it a little puzzling that he's taking nearly half his shots from that distance -- many of them coming off the dribble. It's as though he spent the entire offseason watching videotapes of Baron Davis.
Perhaps shooting from closer in wouldn't help him, though, since he's making only 33.3 percent from the line. The real problem? All that body fat is throwing off his shot.
John Hollinger's "Least Improved Team," our boy Beno ranks #9:
9. Beno Udrih, Spurs
Udrih played very well last year in limited minutes but inexplicably sat while veteran retread Nick Van Exel imploded in the postseason. This year the Spurs rectified that mistake, promoting Udrih to No. 2 behind Tony Parker, but Udrih seemingly has gone out of his way to make them regret it.
He's down to 35.4 percent from the floor, which is tough to live with given his shaky defense, and after solid campaigns in his first two pro seasons, his PER is down to single digits this year.
Ducks will be happy to hear that #2 is none other than LeBron James. Here's the list:
Most disappointing players: 2005-06 PER vs. 2006-07 PER
1. Andrei Kirilenko 20.71 14.24 -6.47
2. LeBron James 28.17 23.96 -4.21
3. Mike James 19.88 13.16 -6.72
4. Jameer Nelson 19.55 15.30 -4.25
5. Joel Przybilla 15.32 7.70 -7.62
6. Dan Gadzuric 17.28 9.89 -7.39
7. Boris Diaw 17.31 13.00 -4.31
8. Larry Hughes 14.08 12.12 -1.96
9. Beno Udrih 15.28 9.09 -6.19
10. Marquis Daniels 15.00 10.12 -4.88
11. Hedo Turkoglu 16.80 12.17 -4.63
12. Chris Kaman 15.01 11.74 -3.27
13. Jason Collins 5.49 2.97 -2.52
14. Ben Wallace 17.54 14.38 -3.16
15. Antoine Walker 14.47 10.22 -4.25
1. Andrei Kirilenko, Jazz
An All-Star caliber player over the last four seasons, Kirilenko has suddenly turned into a mediocre role player. Kirilenko seems utterly lost in the Jazz offense, mostly relying on his very shaky jump shot, and has been a far less capable shot blocker than in previous seasons -- perhaps because he has to play on the perimeter more with Carlos Boozer back in the fray.
His woes aren't lessening any as the season goes on -- he's cleared 11 points exactly once in his last 16 games. His struggles have brought up trade rumors, but as our Marc Stein pointed out recently, who'd take him right now?
2. LeBron James, Cavaliers
James was my pick for MVP a year ago, and like many I thought he'd pretty much take over the league this season. What we've seen instead is a surprising slip backward, including a dip in scoring numbers and a puzzling slump from the free-throw line.
It's easy to blame exhaustion from the world championship, but Dwyane Wade and Dirk Nowitzki played in the same tournament, and both are dominating. A better explanation might be Cleveland's lack of a real point guard, which doesn't allow James to play off the ball more.
3. Mike James, Timberwolves
Continuing the theme of "disappointments named James" -- this one perhaps was more expected -- according to a concept of mine called the Fluke Rule, 90 percent of players who see large one-year PER jumps after age 28 fall right back down to Earth the next year.
James was 30 last season and his PER went up over three points, making him a textbook case. But James has done the rule one better by descending below even his previous norms, and as another minus he's become a liability at the defensive end.
4. Jameer Nelson, Magic
Orlando thought it had a rising star on its hands after Nelson's breakout 2005-06 season, but his third season hasn't been nearly as impressive. Nelson suffered a plague of turnovers at the start of the season and hasn't shot as consistently as he did a year ago, especially on 3-pointers. He's lost 1.6 points per game off his average despite a slight uptick in minutes. His assists are down too, which can't be making Dwight Howard happy.
5. Joel Przybilla, Trail Blazers
Przybilla had a nasty injury at the start of the season, so I'll cut him a bit of slack, but even after returning he's struggled. Struggled might not be the word, actually -- his PER is barely half of what it was last season, the biggest drop of any player besides Richardson. Per 40 minutes he's scoring less than half as much as a year ago, and his turnover rate has skyrocketed to an unacceptable 27.8 -- tied with Dallas' DeSagana Diop for the league's worst.
All in all, not a great way to reward the Blazers for giving him a five-year, $32 million deal over the summer.
6. Dan Gadzuric, Bucks
Half of the fans don't even know this guy exists, but Gadzuric was an extremely effective energy guy off the bench the last three seasons. With the departure of Jamaal Magloire, I figured this season would be a golden opportunity for him to establish himself as one of the game's better young centers. Instead he's established himself as one of the league's most unmovable contracts, with $30 million left on his deal and a single-digit PER.
He's struggled enough to play his way out of Milwaukee's big-man rotation, a difficult feat considering the Bucks' poor frontcourt, and won't be back in it for a while since he's out with a separated shoulder.
7. Boris Diaw, Suns
Diaw showed up in preseason out of shape and got off to a slow start, but even with improved conditioning he's not making the same impact he did a year ago. Per 40 minutes, he's down 2.6 points and 2.2 rebounds from last season, but making 0.2 more turnovers.
His blocks and steals are way down, too, a sign that perhaps his fitness level remains less than optimal. It's easy to say now that perhaps he was playing over his head in 2005-06, but I'm sure the Suns would have liked that information before signing him to a five-year, $45 million extension.
8. Larry Hughes, Cavaliers
Hughes' numbers aren't as far down from a year ago as some of the other players on this list, nor as much as teammate Zydrunas Ilgauskas' for that matter. So why single him out? Because we thought last year was the off year; this was supposed to be Hughes' bounce-back season.
Instead he's been even worse, with his per-minute numbers down across the board and his trademark free-throw drawing skill in serious remission, and that's been as big a reason for Cleveland's struggles as King James' unexpected production dip.
9. Beno Udrih, Spurs
Udrih played very well last year in limited minutes but inexplicably sat while veteran retread Nick Van Exel imploded in the postseason. This year the Spurs rectified that mistake, promoting Udrih to No. 2 behind Tony Parker, but Udrih seemingly has gone out of his way to make them regret it.
He's down to 35.4 percent from the floor, which is tough to live with given his shaky defense, and after solid campaigns in his first two pro seasons, his PER is down to single digits this year.
10. Marquis Daniels, Pacers
The Pacers thought they were getting an up-and-comer when they got Daniels from Dallas in the offseason, but he's struggled and has lost the confidence of Indy coach Rick Carlisle. The weird thing in his case is that his scoring numbers are down only slightly; it's the rebounds and assists that have tanked.
I don't have a good explanation -- Daniels is only 25 and began his career with three solid NBA seasons -- but it's costing him a great opportunity to take over the Pacers' starting shooting guard spot.
11. Hedo Turkoglu, Magic
Turkoglu was one of the keys to the Magic's strong finish a year ago, but he has struggled to keep up the momentum this season. He's shooting a career-low 40.6 percent, and despite standing 6-foot-10 has been one of the most ineffective players at his position on the glass.
He's matching his career high in one category, though: turnovers. Don't be shocked if Trevor Ariza takes his job when he returns from injury; the high-flyer has been vastly more effective.
12. Chris Kaman, Clippers
Another guy whose 2005-06 breakout seems to be short-lived, Kaman's statistical dip hasn't been as severe as that of some other players on the list. But his strong playoffs and big offseason extension (five years, $52 million) created expectations that he's come nowhere close to satisfying, mainly because his 52.3 percent shooting mark from a year ago now looks flukishly high -- he's down to 44.6 percent this year.
13. Jason Collins, Nets
Collins falls in Hughes' category -- we thought the big drop off came a year ago and there'd be a rebound this season. Instead, the freefall continues unimpeded. Collins' impossibly low PER of 2.97 isn't just the lowest in the league this season -- it's the worst of any player in the past two decades. Only Michael Curry in 2003-04 and Nikoloz Tskitishvili in 2002-03 have managed to play more than 1,000 minutes in a season with a PER below five; it appears Collins will be joining the club.
Collins already owned the worst PER of any player to play more than 1,500 minutes since 1987; at his current pace he'll shatter his own record.
14. Ben Wallace, Bulls
The four-time Defensive Player of the Year has almost no chance of making it five, as he's begun showing his age at 32. Wallace's offensive numbers are down, yes, but the Bulls can live with that. The bigger disappointments have been his rebounds, blocks and steals, all of which have dipped from a year ago (Bulls fans will say he's playing fewer minutes than last season, but they're coming at a much faster pace, so it's roughly a wash in terms of possessions).
As a result, the Bulls aren't quite the dominating defensive force they hoped to become when they inked Big Ben to a four-year, $60 million deal this summer -- yes, they're No. 2 in defensive efficiency, but the idea was that they'd be a runaway No. 1.
15. Antoine Walker, Heat
We had to anticipate a little slippage from Miami's vets this season due to the championship hangover effect, but that doesn't mean we should have expected Walker's 3-point Brick-O-Rama extravaganza. He's making only 29.0 percent of his attempts from downtown, which makes it a little puzzling that he's taking nearly half his shots from that distance -- many of them coming off the dribble. It's as though he spent the entire offseason watching videotapes of Baron Davis.
Perhaps shooting from closer in wouldn't help him, though, since he's making only 33.3 percent from the line. The real problem? All that body fat is throwing off his shot.