Availability of the Suns Picks

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The Pheonix Suns have 3 1st round picks in this draft (their own - 29 currently, the Cavs - 20 Currently, the Hawks - 8 Currently). They have repeatedly sold off picks in the past to help their salary cap structure (like we did with Barbosa). In 2006 for example, they dumped picks 21 and 27. Pick #21 (Rajon Rondo), Brian Grant (Expiring), and Cash went to Boston for a Future 1st (uncertain protection). Portland Acquired pick #27 for cash considerations (an auction that we should have tried to get in on, damnit!).

I don't think that their financial situation (on the edge of the lux tax) has improved much over the year. I wonder if they would like to get rid of a 1st (or two) again (and the associated guaranteed contracts). If so, I wonder if we could get in on the action. I am not sure if they could use Bonner (or Ely's) expiring contracts.

PS. Bruno, as the you are apparently a CBA & salary cap guru, would you care to expand the analysis of the Suns cap situation?

[timvp]

A) The only thing that'd make sense would be if the Spurs traded two of their picks in the draft to the Suns to move up. But the Suns don't need or want more picks.

B) History says the Spurs will draft and stash. If that's the case, they already have good positioned picks to do that.

C) The Suns aren't in the business of helping the Spurs.

[Ocotillo]

The Suns aren't in the business of helping the Spurs.

Yeah, but they owe us for helping out with Barbosa. :p:

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A) The only thing that'd make sense would be if the Spurs traded two of their picks in the draft to the Suns to move up. But the Suns don't need or want more picks.

B) History says the Spurs will draft and stash. If that's the case, they already have good positioned picks to do that.

C) The Suns aren't in the business of helping the Spurs.

TIMVP, i'm suggesting that the Suns are looking to dump a pick or two for cap reasons, just like they did last year. I'm pretty sure their overall salary has gone up a fair bit - extensions for Barbosa and Diaw, added Banks for the MLE. Their total salaries next year are ~77 million - call it 10 million in luxury tax on top. Without any rookie contracts, and with only 10 players signed. Think the ownership will like it?
http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/06-07salaries.htm
I think they will be forced to do something...
And they have dumped 1sts for cap reasons before.
Maybe they don't want to deal with us, but we should at least inquire.

[exstatic]

A) The only thing that'd make sense would be if the Spurs traded two of their picks in the draft to the Suns to move up. But the Suns don't need or want more picks.

B) History says the Spurs will draft and stash. If that's the case, they already have good positioned picks to do that.

C) The Suns aren't in the business of helping the Spurs.

D) A first round pick is a guaranteed contract for two years, i.e. 2009.


It wouldn't surprise me to see the Spurs offload THEIR first rounder.

[Marcus Bryant]

Whoever is drafted with the Spurs' pick will be a star.

[Mr. Body]

B) History says the Spurs will draft and stash. If that's the case, they already have good positioned picks to do that.

:shootme :smchode:

[BillsCarnage]

The Suns will not let go of ATL's pick unless it falls out of the top 10, which isn't likely. I could see them moving their own pick, though.

I really doubt the Suns will want to help the Spurs in any way. When the Barbosa deal went down the Suns were horrible.

[timvp]

TIMVP, i'm suggesting that the Suns are looking to dump a pick or two for cap reasons, just like they did last year. I'm pretty sure their overall salary has gone up a fair bit - extensions for Barbosa and Diaw, added Banks for the MLE. Their total salaries next year are ~77 million - call it 10 million in luxury tax on top. Without any rookie contracts, and with only 10 players signed. Think the ownership will like it?
http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/06-07salaries.htm
I think they will be forced to do something...
And they have dumped 1sts for cap reasons before.
Maybe they don't want to deal with us, but we should at least inquire.

I doubt the Spurs would take on more picks. If they bring back Butler and White, I see at most one rookie on the squad. That means that they'll most likely be the ones looking to trade away their picks.

[Mr. Body]

If the Spurs come away with nothing this draft, meaning too a pick-n-stash, they are toast. If anything, the Spurs will try to move up, like every year, but this time they have some real assets to do it. Scola only has one more year on his contract and his buyout may be much lower because of it (Tau sees him walk away without anything), or they can package their first and the Milwaukee pick to move up some spots.

It is absolutley imperative that they replace some graybeards with young talent, starting as soon as possible.

[timvp]

If the Spurs come away with nothing this draft, meaning too a pick-n-stash, they are toast.

I disagree that it has to come from the draft. I can easily see them trading some of their picks and expiring contracts for a player that can come in and produce right away.

And with the age of Duncan and Manu, I'd rather see that and I think the Spurs would rather see that too.

[Bruno]

First, As timvp said, it's highly unlikely that Suns do a trade with Spurs. They will do some deals to save money but not with Spurs : they will do trade with the 25 teams that aren't western contenders.

Now a quick analysis of Suns' state even if it's not really Spurs related (some Suns fans can correct me if i'm wrong, they know their team better than me) :

The Luxury tax threshold should be around $69M next year. If Suns don't do anything and keep their picks, they will be $11M over it. It's too much. They need to make some moves to save money without hurting their chances to win a championship.

I guess they will do some moves before the dealine and not this summer because they will need to get TE or do deals with teams under cap if they do their cost cutting moves this summer and it will be way more complicate than doing trades at the deadline for expirings contracts.

When you look at Suns roster, there are three players that aren't core members and can be dealt in cost saving trades:
- Kurt Thomas : I don't think they will trade him. He is really important to their defense and his salary will hurt them only for the 07-08 year.
- Marcus Banks : They will try to trade him for expirings. He is a bad fit with them because he lacks PG skills to run an up tempo offense. Maybe they will have to add a first to find a team ready to take his contract.
- James Jones: I think too that he will be traded. When everybody is healthy he hasn't a lot of playtime. Suns have two players (Jalen Rose and Jumaine Jones) that can take his spot this year and given than almost all lottery picks are forward, the player drafted with the Atlanta's pick will take hsi spot next year.

If Suns trade James Jones and Marcus Banks, they will be $5M over the tax in 07-08 and under in 08-09. Being $5M over the tax isn't that bad even more when you consider that being slighty over the tax won't hurt a team less next year than this year or than in 05-06.

Teams over the tax are penalized in two ways : the 1$ for 1$ tax and the fact that they received less money when the luxury tax recolted is share between teams. A team over the tax for 1$ received 1/30th lof the luxury tax recolted than a team over the tax for 1$. In 05-06, teams have paid $72M ($2.4M per team) of luxury tax, they will pay $56M($1.8M per team) this year and they will pay around $30M($1.0M per team) next year.


Now for the picks. First an interesting link about furture draft picks :
http://www.realgm.com/src_future_draftpicks.php

I disagree with you that Suns have dumped first round picks for cap reasons. The main reason why they have traded their first rounds picks last year was because they weren't high on available players. The Rondo trade is not a fincancial one , it's just a first for a future first. Notice too that they have sign Banks this summer for a way bigger contract than Rondo's contract. They have sold the pick to Portland for the $3M and not because of the guaranteed contract.

Late first round picks contracts doesn't really hurt a team. A minimum contract will cost $770K against the luxury tax next year, the 20th pick $1.25M and the 30th $1M. And now only two years are guaranteed. Dumping late first round pick just to save money makes few sense because filing the roster with late first round picks to reach the minimum roster (13 players) isn't really more expensive than filling the roster with min contracts.

Assuming that Suns don't trade their picks at the deadline, they will maybe trade their two late first round picks during the draft this year too but it will be mainly because nobody they like will be available and because they can get a good return for them. Given the quality of this draft, I guess a good player will be available at the Cavs pick.

[Bruno]

I doubt the Spurs would take on more picks. If they bring back Butler and White, I see at most one rookie on the squad. That means that they'll most likely be the ones looking to trade away their picks.

Agree.
I don't think that Spurs will have 3 or 4 rookies coming from the draft next year : they are in win now mode and can have almost half of their roster fill with question marks players.
I expect to see some trades or to see late second rounds picks (Spurs second round pick and bulls second round pick if they get him) spend on euros players who will stay in europe.