Spurs' Ginobili shines whether as starter or sub

[xamila rey]

Spurs' Ginobili shines whether as starter or sub

Web Posted: 02/28/2007 11:21 PM CST

Johnny Ludden
Express-News

Three seasons ago, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich replaced Manu Ginobili in the starting lineup with Hedo Turkoglu in an effort to boost Turkoglu's confidence. At the time, Popovich might as well have announced he was removing steak from the menu of every restaurant in Argentina.
In addition to their love for all things beef, Argentines share a deep passion for Ginobili, and Popovich's decision didn't settle well in their stomachs. In the weeks that followed, Spurs officials and San Antonio media members received a torrent of e-mails from the South American country questioning Popovich's sanity, as well as a few of his other mental faculties.

So it came as a surprise last month that when Popovich again asked his frenetic guard to go to the bench to help the team, nary a complaint was heard from Ginobili's countrymen.

"They got used to it, too; I'm not the only one," Ginobili said, laughing. "Before they took it like it was degrading. I tried to explain it to them, but I guess they didn't understand it at that point.

"But with time, after a championship season, they realize I'm doing good coming from the bench, too. They just don't care."

Ginobili insisted he also doesn't mind. What matters, he said, is the Spurs have won six consecutive games and are playing their best ball of the season.

Ginobili has played a large role in the success, averaging 16.9 points and shooting 40.2 percent from the 3-point line, both career bests. But neither he nor Popovich can quantify how much his move to the bench has helped. Or how long it will last.

"It's definitely subject to change," Popovich said.

In addition to debating whether to resume starting Ginobili, the coaching staff also has discussed keeping him on the bench and starting Michael Finley in place of Brent Barry. But with the Spurs on their longest winning streak of the season, Popovich has held off making another lineup change.

"It's probably a more potent attack night after night after night," Popovich said of Ginobili coming off the bench. "I think it makes our bench longer."

Ginobili has been slightly more productive as a reserve, despite playing fewer minutes. Popovich also thinks Ginobili looks to score more quickly when coming off the bench.

While Popovich still occasionally hangs his head in frustration when Ginobili forces a shot or dribbles into a turnover, he values his aggressiveness.

"I just want Manu to be Manu more than anything else," Popovich said. "I want to make sure I'm not limiting him in anyway. It's always way more good than bad, so I just try to leave him alone and let him use his judgment."

Ginobili, who typically enters midway through the first quarter, said he tries to assume more of a scorer's role once Tony Parker goes to the bench. With Parker struggling last week in Atlanta, Ginobili scored 40 points, 24 of which came in a 4-minute, 47-second burst.

"I'm just in a period where I'm feeling good with my shot, so I'm trying to use it," Ginobili said. "I'm still trying to get comfortable with my midrange, so I try to take a couple more a game. So far, it's been working good."

Although Ginobili's minutes have dipped recently because of the Spurs' lopsided victories, Popovich tries to play him for longer stretches off the bench, particularly in the second half.

"A lot of times when he's starting, or like I'm doing now, you play the first six minutes and by the clock you're coming out," Barry said. "There are some games where he might score 14 points in the first six minutes and his number will be called and I don't think he was all that happy coming out of the game.

"Now, he sits there and gets ready to go, and if he gets it going the minutes are just going to be extended. That's a good thing, because once Manu finds his rhythm he's going to have that kind of confidence the whole game."

More than one opposing coach also thinks the Spurs have become more productive by using Ginobili as a reserve.

"Having their top three guys on the court together for 25, 30 minutes was unbalanced," Denver's George Karl said. "Now that they only have their three best players on the court together for 15 or 20 minutes it's easier to balance out the egos and the touches, and that's part of basketball."

Only Chicago's Ben Gordon has averaged more points as a reserve than Ginobili's 18.1. Ginobili would need to come off the bench for at least 23 of the Spurs' remaining 25 games to be eligible for the NBA's Sixth Man award, though that, he said, is the least of his concerns.

"Pop told me that sooner or later I was going to go back to the starting lineup, so I think it's going to happen," Ginobili said. "But I just don't care."


* * *
BETTER OFF THE BENCH?

Manu Ginobili's individual numbers are better this season as a substitute, but the Spurs' winning percentage is higher when Ginobili starts. The Spurs are 2-3 when he hasn't played.

G MPG FG% 3Pt% RPG PPG Team recordStarter 36 28.9 45.1 38.9 4.5 16.4 26-10 (.722)Sub 16 25.2 50.8 42.9 4.2 18.1 11-5 (.688)

http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/basketball/nba/spurs/stories/MYSA030107.01C.BKNspurs.ginobili.38416a4.html

[MannyIsGod]

In a bit, that percentage will flip. The team is coming together very well with Manu off the bench. We've been calling for this for a long time, and this is the longest Pop has ever run with it and I don't think the recent win streak is in spite of that but rather because of that (in part).

[Kori Ellis]

In a bit, that percentage will flip. The team is coming together very well with Manu off the bench. We've been calling for this for a long time, and this is the longest Pop has ever run with it and I don't think the recent win streak is in spite of that but rather because of that (in part).

I predict he'll go back to starting within a month :lol

[timvp]

I've always thought the Spurs were at their best with Manu coming off the bench. Not only does he play as well or better off the bench, it makes rotations go a lot smoother.

I really hope that Pop holds out and stays with this strategy for the rest of the season but knowing the history, Pop will put Manu back in the starting lineup at some point.

It's just a matter of when.

[aaronstampler]

I agree, it works better this way. Him and Tony are friends off the court, but on it they don't have much chemistry. The fewer the two of them play together, the better. Unfortunately in the playoffs, Manu and Tony will probably be on the floor together at least 20 mins a night, maybe 25.

[Kori Ellis]

I agree, it works better this way. Him and Tony are friends off the court, but on it they don't have much chemistry. The fewer the two of them play together, the better. Unfortunately in the playoffs, Manu and Tony will probably be on the floor together at least 20 mins a night, maybe 25.

I don't think it's a matter of chemistry. Moreso that they both do well when they are the primary ball handler. But even currently, I think they still have a good amount of minutes on the floor together and things seem to be working.

The reason I think that they'll go back to Manu starting is because in the stretch run and the postseason, they'll need to get off to good starts more than ever. And for that, I think they need to have their best players on the court from the get-go. Plus in the postseason, most teams have two swingmen that start that need to be defended and Barry can't defend much of anyone.

[timvp]

Him and Tony are friends off the court, but on it they don't have much chemistry. The fewer the two of them play together, the better.

:rolleyes

Last season, Manu had his best +/- when paired with Parker. In the playoffs, Manu had his best +/- when paired with Parker and vice versa. Parker and Manu play best when they are on the court together.

Starting Manu lets them be on the court together in more important junctures -- like the last ten minutes of the game.

[ManuTim_best of Fwiendz]

Yeah, I remember the Tony-Manu tandem pretty deadly in the playoffs.

They usually get good balance if they both get enough touches in enough minutes.

But I remember hearing the announcers saying something lately there had been runs where Pop acknowledged that Tim and Tony would sometimes forget Manu was on the court, for whatever reason.

[SenorSpur]

The other problem is the Spurs don't get much out of either Barry or Finley as the starter. They are truly inconsitent, weak links to what should be a solid perimeter rotation.

[George Gervin's Afro]

I think Vaughn has helped our second team tremendously as well. Certainly not the to the extent of manu but that boy plays with energy and I love that! He is the anti-Beno !

[RADECK]

Manu should be starter

[batman2883]

Manobili is the best thing to ever happen to the world of basketball!!!!!

[AFBlue]

I just wish that the guy replacing Ginobili in the starting lineup (whether Barry or Fin) would be consistent. Barry hasn't really "stepped up" as a starter, but it hasnt' been that many games, so he might get in a groove...

[batman2883]

barry will come into his role soon enough....they havent lost since the switch so things are gonna happen dont worry

[Kori Ellis]

barry will come into his role soon enough....they havent lost since the switch so things are gonna happen dont worry

What do you mean they haven't lost since the switch?

The Spurs are 8-4 since Manu moved to the bench on Jan 28th.

[boutons_]

"I think it makes our bench longer."

... and make our starters shorter.

[batman2883]

What do you mean they haven't lost since the switch?

The Spurs are 8-4 since Manu moved to the bench on Jan 28th.
my bad kori i meant after the all star break ha ha ha ha ha my blunder

[Supergirl]

I don't think it's a matter of chemistry. Moreso that they both do well when they are the primary ball handler. But even currently, I think they still have a good amount of minutes on the floor together and things seem to be working.

The reason I think that they'll go back to Manu starting is because in the stretch run and the postseason, they'll need to get off to good starts more than ever. And for that, I think they need to have their best players on the court from the get-go. Plus in the postseason, most teams have two swingmen that start that need to be defended and Barry can't defend much of anyone.

EXACTLY what I was thinking - that the reason it works so well to have Manu come from the bench is that it allows both Parker and Manu to take turns being the primary ballhandler, the PG, the floor leader, and both to play with TD.

[hater]

without Manu these last 3 or 4 years not only would we only have 2 championships, we'd be merely a top 8 team that loses in the 1st round.

[CaptainLate]

I just wish that the guy replacing Ginobili in the starting lineup (whether Barry or Fin) would be consistent.

Buck Harvey wrote: "And if the Spurs somehow sign Luis Scola and Andres Nocioni in the offseason? Then they might want to schedule a playoff series (in Argentina)."

Is Nocioni a FA next season?

[Kori Ellis]

Buck Harvey wrote: "And if the Spurs somehow sign Luis Scola and Andres Nocioni in the offseason? Then they might want to schedule a playoff series (in Argentina)."

Is Nocioni a FA next season?

Yes

[whottt]

It's a tribute to Manu's versatility...

A lot of Argies and others have asked why Parker doesn't do it...

Parker couldn't do it like Manu...Parker has Superstar talent, but he's not an energy guy. I'm not sure Duncan could energize the bench like Manu does either.

Manu has the ability to serve in the role of Superstar or Energy guy...much like he also has the ability to be the leader(as he is on Team Argentina) or a supporting talent...

Most players just don't have the ability to change roles and be effective like Manu does.


I'd say that Manu is the successor to David Robinson in that way...the way David constantly changed his role and game for the betterment of the team...it's what Manu does now. It won't win him the gratitude of the casual fan(see Robinson, David)...but the people that know the game will only respect him more because of it...


It's definitely not a slight on Manu...as long as there's no confusion as to who the man truly is...like there was with Hedo.



Manu is the no-brainer lock for 6th man of the year if he stays in this role(Gordon scores but he doesn't do it at a great PCT)...

I'd like to see him get that award since it is unlikely he will ever win the regular season MVP.

[Texas_Ranger]

Manu's great all the time. I'm verry happy that the Spurs pick him on the draft.

[cheguevara]

Buck Harvey wrote: "And if the Spurs somehow sign Luis Scola and Andres Nocioni in the offseason? "


oh man, this has been my dream all along.

[Cherry]

Buck Harvey wrote: "And if the Spurs somehow sign Luis Scola and Andres Nocioni in the offseason?"

please!:cheer

[ggoose25]

lets retire manu's number

[ArgSpursFan]

without Manu these last 3 or 4 years not only would we only have 2 championships, we'd be merely a top 8 team that loses in the 1st round.

Don´t say that,you may hurt some people´s feelings in here. :nope

[romain.star]

although they're not the same type of players, would you rather change the current parker Manu tandem for a Kidd Carter tandem?

[ArgSpursFan]

although they're not the same type of players, would you rather change the current parker Manu tandem for a Kidd Carter tandem?

hell no,what did they win together anyways?

[whottt]

hell no,what did they win together anyways?




http://www.24carat.co.uk/images/1948swissgoldmedallion5thwinterolympicsstmoritzrev 240.jpg

[ArgSpursFan]

http://www.24carat.co.uk/images/1948swissgoldmedallion5thwinterolympicsstmoritzrev 240.jpg

good point.Was talking about NBA though.
if that´s the case Scola did win one too,but many spurs fans here think that means shit.but that´s ok

[Rick Von Braun]

:rolleyes

Last season, Manu had his best +/- when paired with Parker.

I think you might be reading this slightly wrong, perhaps because you are looking at this from TP's perspective only. Parker have always had his best +/- numbers when paired with Manu, but the same is not true the other way around.

Last year Parker's best teammate was Manu, with a +13/48min for the tandem TP/Manu (http://www.82games.com/0506/0506SASP.HTM). However, from Manu's perspective his best teammates in terms of +/- production were Horry (+17), Beno (+17), TD (+13), TP (+13) and Rasho (+13).

This tendency has been constant since Manu joined the Spurs:

2003-2004
TP: +8 with Manu (TP's best with any teammate)
Manu: +8 with TP was the lowest of all teammates sans Mercer, Rose and Bowen; e.g. +15 Hedo, +14 Hart, +12 Duncan, +11 Horry, etc.

2004-2005
TP: +15 with Manu (TP's best with any teammate)
Manu: +15 with TP was average for Manu, e.g. +19 Duncan, +18 Horry, +17 Barry, etc.

It is clear that Manu brings the best +/- production in TP, but not the other way around. Maximizing the time they don't overlap on the field is not a bad thing for the Spurs, if Manu is more productive with other teammates.

While I usually disagree with George Karl's view, I do tend to agree with this quote from the article:
"Having their top three guys on the court together for 25, 30 minutes was unbalanced," Denver's George Karl said. "Now that they only have their three best players on the court together for 15 or 20 minutes it's easier to balance out the egos and the touches, and that's part of basketball."

The fact that Manu has the highest True Shooting % of any Spurs' player with 60.8% (and tied 11th overall in the entire league) (http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2007/jh_ALL_TSP.htm) only means good things with slightly more touches, since you maximize production per possession.

[romain.star]

hell no,what did they win together anyways?

don't get me wrong... i'm a big fan of our franco-argentinian back court but i assume that a Kidd - Carter - Duncan team might win titles too

[ArgSpursFan]

I think you might be reading this slightly wrong, perhaps because you are looking at this from TP's perspective only. Parker have always had his best +/- numbers when paired with Manu, but the same is not true the other way around.

Last year Parker's best teammate was Manu, with a +13/48min for the tandem TP/Manu (http://www.82games.com/0506/0506SASP.HTM). However, from Manu's perspective his best teammates in terms of +/- production were Horry (+17), Beno (+17), TD (+13), TP (+13) and Rasho (+13).

This tendency has been constant since Manu joined the Spurs:

2003-2004
TP: +8 with Manu (TP's best with any teammate)
Manu: +8 with TP was the lowest of all teammates sans Mercer, Rose and Bowen; e.g. +15 Hedo, +14 Hart, +12 Duncan, +11 Horry, etc.

2004-2005
TP: +15 with Manu (TP's best with any teammate)
Manu: +15 with TP was average for Manu, e.g. +19 Duncan, +18 Horry, +17 Barry, etc.

It is clear that Manu brings the best +/- production in TP, but not the other way around. Maximizing the time they don't overlap on the field is not a bad things for the Spurs, if Manu is more productive with other teammates.

While I usually disagree with George Karl's view, I do tend to agree with this quote from the article:
"Having their top three guys on the court together for 25, 30 minutes was unbalanced," Denver's George Karl said. "Now that they only have their three best players on the court together for 15 or 20 minutes it's easier to balance out the egos and the touches, and that's part of basketball."

The fact that Manu has the highest True Shooting % of any Spurs' player with 60.8% (and tied 11th overall in the entire league) (http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2007/jh_ALL_TSP.htm) only means good things with slightly more touches, since you maximize production per possession.

that was a great post.
But the thing is that when TP and Manu are on the floor Mnu becomes the 3 rd scoring option,andParker gets more space to penetrate when Manu is on the floor tham when he isn´t.(and that´s alright I must say)
but at the same time i must say also that ,the scenario changes in the playoffs and more on key games(like game 5,6 or 7)when manu becomes the 2nd or the 1st scoring option when he is on the floor,regardless on who is or isn´t playing.

[romain.star]

that was a great post.
But the thing is that when TP and Manu are on the floor Mnu becomes the 3 rd scoring option,andParker gets more space to penetrate when Manu is on the floor tham when he isn´t.(and that´s alright I must say)
but at the same time i must say that ,the scenario changes in the playoffs and more on key games(like game 5,6 or 7)when manu becomes the 2nd or the 1st scoring option when he is on the floor,regardless on who is or isn´t playing.

manu is stronger in the head then TP when it really counts... he's just more mature despite his "crazyness" on the floor
the way manu leads his national team to world and olympic medals says it all

[GrandeDavid]

I've always thought the Spurs were at their best with Manu coming off the bench. Not only does he play as well or better off the bench, it makes rotations go a lot smoother.

I really hope that Pop holds out and stays with this strategy for the rest of the season but knowing the history, Pop will put Manu back in the starting lineup at some point.

It's just a matter of when.

Well, its pretty clear that as long as this streak keeps going, Pop won't make any lineup changes, and I don't expect this streak to end for at least another seven or eight games, perhaps more.

So we've got plenty more games to see Manu come off the bench.

[ShoogarBear]

The log can be described pretty simply just with math.

Duncan and Parker play about 34-35 MPG. Manu plays about 28-29 MPG.

Let say these are your highest priorities:
1. Playing all three of them together for as long as possible in the fourth quarter (3-star time).
2. Playing at least two of them together (2-star time) at as much as possible, because the Spurs suck otherwise.

Through trial and error, you find that the longest amount of time you can have all three on the court is about 6 minutes. The rest of the time can be broken down many ways, such as.

Tim-Tony 17 minutes
Tim- Manu 11 minutes
Manu-Tony 11 minutes
0-star time 3 minutes

If you play all three together more than 6 minutes a game, then you have to increase the number of minutes of 0-1 star time, which is Bad For The Spurs. And if you start all three, then that will not only increase the 0-1 star time, but will decrease the number of minutes of 3-star time in the fourth, which is also Bad For The Spurs (unless they're blowing somebody out).

[SuperManu!!!]

FOr now, this move is generating good numbers....but please, don't start finley!!!

[DDS4]

Who cares who starts.

As long as the big 3 end games.

[Kori Ellis]

I think you might be reading this slightly wrong, perhaps because you are looking at this from TP's perspective only. Parker have always had his best +/- numbers when paired with Manu, but the same is not true the other way around.

Last year Parker's best teammate was Manu, with a +13/48min for the tandem TP/Manu (http://www.82games.com/0506/0506SASP.HTM). However, from Manu's perspective his best teammates in terms of +/- production were Horry (+17), Beno (+17), TD (+13), TP (+13) and Rasho (+13).

This tendency has been constant since Manu joined the Spurs:

2003-2004
TP: +8 with Manu (TP's best with any teammate)
Manu: +8 with TP was the lowest of all teammates sans Mercer, Rose and Bowen; e.g. +15 Hedo, +14 Hart, +12 Duncan, +11 Horry, etc.

2004-2005
TP: +15 with Manu (TP's best with any teammate)
Manu: +15 with TP was average for Manu, e.g. +19 Duncan, +18 Horry, +17 Barry, etc.

It is clear that Manu brings the best +/- production in TP, but not the other way around. Maximizing the time they don't overlap on the field is not a bad thing for the Spurs, if Manu is more productive with other teammates.

While I usually disagree with George Karl's view, I do tend to agree with this quote from the article:
"Having their top three guys on the court together for 25, 30 minutes was unbalanced," Denver's George Karl said. "Now that they only have their three best players on the court together for 15 or 20 minutes it's easier to balance out the egos and the touches, and that's part of basketball."

The fact that Manu has the highest True Shooting % of any Spurs' player with 60.8% (and tied 11th overall in the entire league) (http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2007/jh_ALL_TSP.htm) only means good things with slightly more touches, since you maximize production per possession.


Actually if you use lenovo stats, which the NBA uses, you can see here that Manu had his best +/- last regular season with Parker.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/lenovo_sort.jsp?pcomb=2&season=22005&split=9&team=Spurs

Parker actually had better +/- with Duncan and Bowen than he did with Manu. But Manu's best combination was with Parker.

In the postseason, Manu's +/- was highest with Duncan, followed closely by with Parker.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/lenovo_sort.jsp?pcomb=2&season=42005&split=9&team=Spurs

This season, the best two player combination on the Spurs is Bowen/Duncan. :lol So I don't know how highly I rate +/- for the Spurs. :lol

http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/lenovo_sort.jsp?pcomb=2&season=22006&split=9&team=Spurs


I know you are getting your stats from somewhere else, but these are what the NBA uses. NBA.com, 82games.com and Popcorn Machine all usually vary a bit (even if you use per 48 on each). I'm not sure why that is.

[timvp]

I think you might be reading this slightly wrong, perhaps because you are looking at this from TP's perspective only.
No, I was using the total numbers. Manu had his highest +/- total when paired with Parker ... for both the regular season and the playoffs.

Ginobili played more minutes with Duncan, but his +/- total was lower than his +/- total with Parker. And I never hear anyone say Duncan hurts Manu's game.


Parker have always had his best +/- numbers when paired with Manu, but the same is not true the other way around.
Everyone usually has their best +/- numbers per minute with Manu. Manu is the +/- king. Always has been.

Why is that? Well, not only is he a great player, but because he plays limited minutes (compared to most stars), so anyone on the court for his half of the game is going to do well. If Manu was forced to play 35-38 minutes per game, his +/- wouldn't always be amazingly high.



Last year Parker's best teammate was Manu, with a +13/48min for the tandem TP/Manu (http://www.82games.com/0506/0506SASP.HTM). However, from Manu's perspective his best teammates in terms of +/- production were Horry (+17), Beno (+17), TD (+13), TP (+13) and Rasho (+13).

If Manu is the king of +/-, then Horry is the next in line. Since he's been a Spur, his +/- have always been very high (other than this year :depressed).

Pairing both Manu and Horry makes sense to be the top -- especially considering that when they play together, it's usually at the end of games.

When paired with Beno last year, Manu assumed more of the point guard role (notice the APG). But his +17 is tough to judge because Beno played such few minutes last year.

Next on the list is Parker. Manu was +13.4 with Parker, +12.9 with Duncan and +12.5 with Rasho.

So, if you want to use +/- totals, Manu was best when paired with Parker. If you want to use +/- per 48 minutes, Parker was third ... yet only behind a +/- specialist and the little time Beno played.


It is clear that Manu brings the best +/- production in TP, but not the other way around. Maximizing the time they don't overlap on the field is not a bad thing for the Spurs, if Manu is more productive with other teammates.

Again, I agree with Manu coming off the bench ... but I don't think it's main purpose is to play Tony and Manu less together. If anything, it means they'll play more together in the fourth quarter than ever.

And really, Manu playing worse because Tony is on the court is a myth. People like to act like with ballhog Tony off the court, Manu will be free to shine.

If you look at last year's stats, Manu averaged 22.5 points per 48 minutes when on the court with Parker. That's one of his highest marks.

Parker on the other hand averaged 21.2 points per 48 minutes when paired with Manu. That was the lowest Parker averaged with anyone paired with him on the entire team.

If anything, when Parker and Ginobili are separated, it's Parker's stats which go up more than Ginobili's stats do.

But again, "separating" the two players isn't really the issue. That implies that one of them holds the other back. The truth is the Spurs are best when they are on the court together.


While I usually disagree with George Karl's view, I do tend to agree with this quote from the article:
"Having their top three guys on the court together for 25, 30 minutes was unbalanced," Denver's George Karl said. "Now that they only have their three best players on the court together for 15 or 20 minutes it's easier to balance out the egos and the touches, and that's part of basketball."

It doesn't have anything to do with separating egos. Like Manu said, when he comes off the bench, Tim and Tony are on their way to the bench. That allows Manu to be more aggressive scoring wise.

What hurt the Spurs at times this year was when Pop played lineups with one or none of the big three on the court. With Manu coming off the bench, we don't see that anymore.


The fact that Manu has the highest True Shooting % of any Spurs' player with 60.8% (and tied 11th overall in the entire league) (http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2007/jh_ALL_TSP.htm) only means good things with slightly more touches, since you maximize production per possession.

Check Brent Barry's TS% :)

It's good to see that you agree with Manu coming off the bench. I know that in the past that you've been against it.

The more I see it, the more I like it. Manu can concentrate on scoring when he comes into the game. Pop can always keep at least one of the big three on the court. And most importantly, Tony, Manu and Tim can play together more in the fourth quarters.

I also think the Spurs switching from Beno to Vaughn is going to help Manu. With Beno, Manu had to waste energy being a semi-point guard out there and oftentimes had to guard smaller players. Now with Vaughn, he's a good enough ballhandler that Manu can just concentrate on scoring, and a good enough defender that Manu will never be forced to guard a ballhandler.

[Rick Von Braun]

Hi Kori :toast


Actually if you use lenovo stats, which the NBA uses, you can see here that Manu had his best +/- last regular season with Parker.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/lenovo_sort.jsp?pcomb=2&season=22005&split=9&team=Spurs

Parker actually had better +/- with Duncan and Bowen than he did with Manu. But Manu's best combination was with Parker.

Perhaps you may be reading this incorrectly. When evaluating which pair of players play better with each other, the only way to draw a meaningful comparison is normalizing playing times, since each pair of players play different times. Therefore, it is more important the +/- per unit of time when comparing pair of players. Allow me a very simple illustration: if players A and B play 1000 minutes together and have +100, and players A and C play 500 minutes together and have a +75, the better pair is A/C by 50% per minute played, despite the fact that the absolute +/- is larger for A/B. Of course, if pair X and Y played only 5 minutes together, there is simply not enough data to say anything meaningful, which is why I usually compare the main guys in the Spurs' rotation only.

Unfortunately, the Lenovo stats you indicated only have the raw +/-, and +/- per minute is not calculated (the column is empty), but it should be easily calculated based on playing time.


In the postseason, Manu's +/- was highest with Duncan, followed closely by with Parker.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/lenovo_sort.jsp?pcomb=2&season=42005&split=9&team=Spurs

This season, the best two player combination on the Spurs is Bowen/Duncan. :lol So I don't know how highly I rate +/- for the Spurs. :lol

http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/lenovo_sort.jsp?pcomb=2&season=22006&split=9&team=Spurs

This is related to the explanation above. The players that log the most minutes in general, and the most minutes with TD in particular are TP and Bowen, so the raw +/- is expected to be higher with both of them.

The only thing that has been a constant for the Spurs since 2003 is that Manu and TD are the two players that consistently make all other teammates better. Each teammate gets higher +/- when playing with Manu/TD than their own average +/- since 2003. Manu has been perfect in this regard every year with the Spurs, and TD has been almost perfect, with the sole exception of last year, since he didn't play that well with Horry and Oberto (in the latter case only marginal minutes so it should not count for much).


I know you are getting your stats from somewhere else, but these are what the NBA uses. NBA.com, 82games.com and Popcorn Machine all usually vary a bit (even if you use per 48 on each). I'm not sure why that is.

There are small differences, that mostly depend on how they process the logs. For instance, if a player gets on the court while some other player (same or opposing team) is shooting FTs, some criteria might determine that the results of the 2 FTs belong to the player that was on the court at the time of the foul, some other criteria might determine that the new player gets penalized or credit for the FT points, and other simply split the FTs. There are other examples that can explain the differences, but I hope you catch my gist.

However, all these differences are quite small, so my point remains. For example, NBA.com says the TP-Manu in the 2005-2006 season had a +333 while 82games.com says it was +342. Since they played together roughly 1230 minutes, their +/- per 48 minutes are virtually identical (+13.0 NBA.com vs +13.3 82games.com). A couple of decimal points do not change main point.

[timvp]

The only thing that has been a constant for the Spurs since 2003 is that Manu and TD are the two players that consistently make all other teammates better. Each teammate gets higher +/- when playing with Manu/TD than their own average +/- since 2003.
True. And that's a great sign. Per minute, I'd say Duncan and Manu are the Spurs' best players. That they always have a positive impact on the rest of their teammates is a great sign.

However, take out pairs where Parker is paired with the backup point guard, and Parker did the same thing last year and is close to doing it again this year. All he'd have to do is improve 1 point per 48 minutes when paired with Horry. In the '05 season, he was also very, very close.

So it's not like Duncan and Manu make everyone much better and Parker makes players worse. Maybe you could say that in the '03-04 season, but in the last three years, Parker is right with Duncan and Manu.

Take away the twin point guard backcourts and the Spurs have three players who make their teammates better and have been doing it for three seasons.

I can live with that.

:smokin

[Rick Von Braun]

Hey timvp :spin


No, I was using the total numbers. Manu had his highest +/- total when paired with Parker ... for both the regular season and the playoffs.

Ginobili played more minutes with Duncan, but his +/- total was lower than his +/- total with Parker. And I never hear anyone say Duncan hurts Manu's game.

The differences last year were very small...

Manu-TP played 1228 minutes together with +342, i.e. +13.3 per 48
Manu-TD played 1281 minutes together with +344, i.e. +12.9 per 48

Again, there might be small variations depending on the source and the criteria used to assign +/- in certain circumstances, but overall they all pretty much agree.



Everyone usually has their best +/- numbers per minute with Manu. Manu is the +/- king. Always has been.

Why is that? Well, not only is he a great player, but because he plays limited minutes (compared to most stars), so anyone on the court for his half of the game is going to do well. If Manu was forced to play 35-38 minutes per game, his +/- wouldn't always be amazingly high.

This is true when comparing him with players that play ~40 minutes per game, but not necessarily true when comparing him with players that play less than 35 minutes per game. No player on the Spurs plays more than 35 minutes in the regular season.


If Manu is the king of +/-, then Horry is the next in line. Since he's been a Spur, his +/- have always been very high (other than this year :depressed).

Nope, that is an insult to Duncan. Both Manu and Duncan have being Kings since 2003.


Pairing both Manu and Horry makes sense to be the top -- especially considering that when they play together, it's usually at the end of games.

When paired with Beno last year, Manu assumed more of the point guard role (notice the APG). But his +17 is tough to judge because Beno played such few minutes last year.

Next on the list is Parker. Manu was +13.4 with Parker, +12.9 with Duncan and +12.5 with Rasho.

So, if you want to use +/- totals, Manu was best when paired with Parker. If you want to use +/- per 48 minutes, Parker was third ... yet only behind a +/- specialist and the little time Beno played.

Correct. I won't argue about the precision of the numbers or the sources, but you should agree with me that there is a significant difference between +17 and +13 and there is not a significant difference between +13.3 and +12.9. What is wrong with pairing Manu more minutes with Beno and Horry last year if we could come back in time?


Again, I agree with Manu coming off the bench ... but I don't think it's main purpose is to play Tony and Manu less together. If anything, it means they'll play more together in the fourth quarter than ever.

I disagree... I think it is benefitial that they play less together... if for no other reason that each may have more touches and don't get in the way of each other. TP plays as a SG, so it is better to let him do his thing with Brent or Finley as a spot up shooter and let Manu rest on the bench. This is not a derogatory comment on TP and/or Manu. It is the coach obligation to put his players in the best conditions to succeed for the benefit of the team.


And really, Manu playing worse because Tony is on the court is a myth. People like to act like with ballhog Tony off the court, Manu will be free to shine.

If you look at last year's stats, Manu averaged 22.5 points per 48 minutes when on the court with Parker. That's one of his highest marks.

Correct, but still lower than when Manu played with Beno, Barry or Horry. What would have been the issue of matching Manu more time with these guys? They get larger number of differential points per possesion, they would have increased Spurs production even more.


Parker on the other hand averaged 21.2 points per 48 minutes when paired with Manu. That was the lowest Parker averaged with anyone paired with him on the entire team.

If anything, when Parker and Ginobili are separated, it's Parker's stats which go up more than Ginobili's stats do.

Points per 48 minutes is not the most important thing. Outscoring your opponent is. Tony get's the best point differential for the Spurs when playing with Manu. I don't know what it is, but Manu certainly helps him and the team.


But again, "separating" the two players isn't really the issue. That implies that one of them holds the other back. The truth is the Spurs are best when they are on the court together.

It doesn't have anything to do with separating egos. Like Manu said, when he comes off the bench, Tim and Tony are on their way to the bench. That allows Manu to be more aggressive scoring wise.

It has nothing to do with egos, but it has to do with touches. And I don't mean touches only to score, but to distribute the ball and find weakness in the opponent. I've seen Manu many times not attempting a FG when on the court without TD and TP, and still the Spurs outscore the opponent.


What hurt the Spurs at times this year was when Pop played lineups with one or none of the big three on the court. With Manu coming off the bench, we don't see that anymore.

I agree, but it would be relatively simple to find a rotation where the big 3 start and finish, and the rest of the game almost every time there are 2 of the big 3 on court. It is not rocket science, so I don't think this coming off the bench has been the key.


Check Brent Barry's TS% :)

Very good point. A lot of players do not qualify according to NBA league leaders rules, so they are not included in the link provided. These rules to qualify players with a threshold are in place to avoid outliers of very few minutes played, few attempts, few games, etc. Brent has been excluded for an arbitrary threshold decided by the NBA, but he certainly has had a magnificient TS% so far.


It's good to see that you agree with Manu coming off the bench. I know that in the past that you've been against it.

The more I see it, the more I like it. Manu can concentrate on scoring when he comes into the game. Pop can always keep at least one of the big three on the court. And most importantly, Tony, Manu and Tim can play together more in the fourth quarters.

I somehow agree with all these points, but I also think they are orthogonal with Manu coming off the bench. Having alternative playing times other than the first and last 6 minutes of the game is perfectly possible with an adequate rotation.

There is one weakness on the coming off the bench that I think is quite obvious, in particular for the playoffs. You keep arguing that Manu cannot play for extended minutes, but I am certain that he will play at least 32 minutes per game during the playoffs. If he comes off the bench and doesn't play the first 6 minutes of the first and third quarter (12 minutes), it means he will have to play 32 out of the remaining 36 minutes (48 - 12), i.e. 4 court minutes of rest for the entire game. Pop would be killing him physically.

Furthermore, as Kori said, I think the Spurs enter the game at full throttle in the playoffs riding all their horses.

I am with Kori here... coming playoff time, he will be starting the first and third quarters in order to get him more resting time over the entire game and hopefully to impose the Spurs tempo and will over the game.


I also think the Spurs switching from Beno to Vaughn is going to help Manu. With Beno, Manu had to waste energy being a semi-point guard out there and oftentimes had to guard smaller players. Now with Vaughn, he's a good enough ballhandler that Manu can just concentrate on scoring, and a good enough defender that Manu will never be forced to guard a ballhandler.

This is a good point. I hope it works better than Nick's experiment last year.

Cheers!