DMN's Colishaw: Spurs, others have "no chance" of beating Mavs or Suns in playoffs

[CubanMustGo]

Just a little blurb from a very long, tedious article written by the Dallas Boring News' Tim Colishaw, the premise of which seems to be that the NHL is a better league than the NBA because teams actually made significant trades this year:


One player can make a huge difference in the NBA. One trade could have shifted the balance of power (if you can use that word) in the East.

And everyone sat around doing nothing.

Likewise with the San Antonio Spurs, the Utah Jazz, the Los Angeles Lakers. These are very good teams with absolutely no shot at beating Dallas or Phoenix. And maybe one trade wouldn't have changed that.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/columnists/tcowlishaw/stories/030407dnspocowlishaw.3456c60.html

Ya know, like most others here I am very impressed with how well Dallas is playing this year. But sh*t happens and the team with the best regular season record ain't guaranteed nothing but the #1 seed in the playoffs. And to say none of the other top teams in the West can beat Phoenix belies the fact that the Suns have a losing record against those same teams.

More crack reporting from the Boring News. If Dallas does somehow manage to not win the championship these guys will probably commit suicide, so convinced are they of the Mavs' playoff invulnerability.

Before Mav fan goes berzerk, note that I am not denying the Mavs are, barring injury, favorites to win it. I just take issue with this "we're having a great regular season and there's no way anyone can beat us" mentality most of the sports writers up here display on a daily basis. You can bet Avery isn't taking teams for granted.

[George Gervin's Afro]

In all honesty I like the fact that no one is giving us a shot. Especially from people like Colonshaw

[bigfan]

I agree 100% that its great the writers in Dallas are so sure the Mavs are going to beat the Spurs in the playoffs. That just makes the eventual Spurs victory much sweeter. I do think the Mavs are a much better team than before and will be tougher to beat, but I like our chances based on our team makeup, our coaches and the intangibles (like being written off before the playoffs!)

[mavsfan1000]

That was really a stupid thing to say by Colishaw. The spurs definitely have a shot at beating both the mavs and suns. Maybe not a great shot but it is possible.

[Clutch20]

Yeah, chamelions on crack. I've seen those columnists in a feeding frenzy, turn on their own hometown teams with no mercy, kinda like LA Times. DMN's media team sell print, at any cost. Mav's supporters still wince at their hometown's newspaper write ups about them during the '05 run. I read the Telegraph from Ft. Worth for a better balanced story.

[ducks]

when was this written

[dallasmavsnfuego214]

its dumb to say they have no shot at beating Dallas event though they are a big underdog. but saying Spurs cant beat Phoenix? come on now..... :lol

[exstatic]

Phoenix is a Chimera, like they are every year. With the correct seedings now implemented, they have no chance to get out of the second round, having to face either Dallas or SA.

[Mavs are Champs]

Phoenix is a Chimera, like they are every year. With the correct seedings now implemented, they have no chance to get out of the second round, having to face either Dallas or SA.

As of right now I am assuming that Phoenix is going to be playing San Antonio. I don't envy the trip San Antonio has to make this Post Season to get to the WCF, Same one, pretty much, that the Mavs had to make last year, going through a so so team (Lakers w/o Odom), then all of a sudden having to play a completely different type of team (run and gun, to hell with defense, Suns), THEN, if you win both of those games, play in the WCF against the Mavs ( yet again a different style of bball). Should be a stressful run for Spurs fans. I hope they make it,so we can see that Mavs-Spurs matchup

[samikeyp]

Should be a stressful run for Spurs fans.

Most are. :)

[Mavs are Champs]

I guess that being said, its brutal conference all the way around. Dallas may have to play a Denver with a gelled AI/Melo, and then turn around and play Utah/Houston. Our saving grace is that Utah/Houston should be beat down for both teams.

[Obstructed_View]

I learned my lesson in 1995 about how important the regular season is.

The Spurs have made it through tougher playoff runs than Phoenix and Dallas. It sounds to me like, for all the wins, Mavs fans are whistling in the dark when it comes to the Spurs. Of course, if Maverick fans didn't have a massive inferiority complex, they wouldn't be trolling a Spurs board for hours every day ready to take on Spurs fans for their differing opinions.

[samikeyp]

Oh well since Tim Cowlishaw says so the season must be over. Im surprised the NBA is still playing games. :lol

[Obstructed_View]

Tim Cowlishaw is such a Mavericks fan he spends half of his Around the Horn appearances complaining about the scoring.

[Borosai]

If that is the popular opinion in Dallas (among fans and media), then the pressure on the Mavs is going to be insane this year. I wonder how they will handle it in the playoffs. Oh, and if the Mavs manage to lose, watch out...bodies everywhere.

[dallasmavsnfuego214]

I learned my lesson in 1995 about how important the regular season is.


then the Spurs 8 game win streak means nothing right?

according to your logic

[Tom_Foolery]

Just a little blurb from a very long, tedious article written by the Dallas Boring News' Tim Colishaw, the premise of which seems to be that the NHL is a better league than the NBA because teams actually made significant trades this year:


One player can make a huge difference in the NBA. One trade could have shifted the balance of power (if you can use that word) in the East.

And everyone sat around doing nothing.

Likewise with the San Antonio Spurs, the Utah Jazz, the Los Angeles Lakers. These are very good teams with absolutely no shot at beating Dallas or Phoenix. And maybe one trade wouldn't have changed that.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/columnists/tcowlishaw/stories/030407dnspocowlishaw.3456c60.html

Ya know, like most others here I am very impressed with how well Dallas is playing this year. But sh*t happens and the team with the best regular season record ain't guaranteed nothing but the #1 seed in the playoffs. And to say none of the other top teams in the West can beat Phoenix belies the fact that the Suns have a losing record against those same teams.

More crack reporting from the Boring News. If Dallas does somehow manage to not win the championship these guys will probably commit suicide, so convinced are they of the Mavs' playoff invulnerability.

Before Mav fan goes berzerk, note that I am not denying the Mavs are, barring injury, favorites to win it. I just take issue with this "we're having a great regular season and there's no way anyone can beat us" mentality most of the sports writers up here display on a daily basis. You can bet Avery isn't taking teams for granted.





i like the streak we're on, but i will feel more confident if we can beat the more elite teams. until then, it doesn't matter that we beat the scrub teams in the NBA and end up with a good record. if we cannot beat teams like dallas or the suns, then yeah, we shouldn't be too confident.

[mabber]

Tim Cowlishaw is such a Mavericks fan he spends half of his Around the Horn appearances complaining about the scoring.

I don't see where he has the time to watch all the Mav games as he's pretty much devoting all of his time to NASCAR these days. :lol I'm not sure how he got that gig (as NASCAR expert all of a sudden).

[FromWayDowntown]

then the Spurs 8 game win streak means nothing right?

according to your logic

I'm sure that's true for most of us.

Winning 8 consecutive games in February and March is pretty much irrelevant. The 1994-95 Spurs were 30-4 in their last 34 games, including 21 of their last 23 -- and that team still lost in the WCF. The next year, the Spurs had a 17 game winning streak that included the last game in February and every game that team played in March. And it still lost in the 2nd Round.

[joeyjfive]

Didnt some other writer say the exact samething Colishaw is saying, I beleive he called the NBA the No Balls League, since no one managed to pull off a crazy trade that he can write 58969684 articles about.

[Mavs are Champs]

If that is the popular opinion in Dallas (among fans and media), then the pressure on the Mavs is going to be insane this year. I wonder how they will handle it in the playoffs. Oh, and if the Mavs manage to lose, watch out...bodies everywhere.

I agree, with the expectations the fans and media alike have with these mavs, that if they lose many people will go crazy. That being said, I think that Avery and his team are handling the hooplah pretty well. They seem to be put together well when handling this years success. I don't see Mavs running around filming commercials (ala Wade), or responding to all the media praise with arrogance. They all admitt that the only thing that matters is the Championship.

[Cry Havoc]

I learned my lesson in 1995 about how important the regular season is.


And I learned my lesson (again) this year about how being written off so early by so many people affects a team. A lot of writers may not come out and say it, but the general feel is that the Mavs are an unstoppable juggernaut this year, and are practically impossible to stop come playoffs, if healthy.

Now, I realize that some analysts are saying the Spurs have a legit shot. Some even favor them due to more experience. But you just need to take one look at the Chicago Bears (and the Colts) from this past season to see what a team can do with a chip on it's shoulder.

Coming into the playoffs, neither team was expected to do much other than maybe win a playoff game or two and go home in the conference title game.

The Bears in particular were media underdogs, and every single ESPN analyst picked the Saints to beat them. Some went so far as to say there is "no way the Bears can beat this Saints team."

They were right. The Bears didn't beat them. They annihilated them, causing fumbles and offensive miscues all over the field with their defense. In much the same way, the Colts won, won, and then after being down early, came back to dominate the second half against the Patriots and win a Super Bowl.

Personally, I love being written off. I want our players to step into the series vs. the Mavs with the entire media saying it's going to be a 5 game laugher of a series for Dallas. I want Duncan and Parker to walk onto the court and just stare down the Mavs players. Then I want to see a series of the most physical, most overpowering, most pissed off Spurs basketball in our 30 years of existence as a franchise. I want to walk into game 1 and completely dismantle the Mavs.

Will it happen? Dunno. But I know that when a bunch of people tell a great team, "See that team over there? That's Goliath. You have no chance of beating him." Players like Tim Duncan often simply nod in agreement... and reach for a slingshot.

[Slinkyman]

As of right now I am assuming that Phoenix is going to be playing San Antonio. I don't envy the trip San Antonio has to make this Post Season to get to the WCF, Same one, pretty much, that the Mavs had to make last year, going through a so so team (Lakers w/o Odom), then all of a sudden having to play a completely different type of team (run and gun, to hell with defense, Suns), THEN, if you win both of those games, play in the WCF against the Mavs ( yet again a different style of bball). Should be a stressful run for Spurs fans. I hope they make it,so we can see that Mavs-Spurs matchup

i really can't believe you think that playing the lakers is the same as playing the griz, one team has a history of winning championships with one of the best coaches of all time with one of the best players in the league today and the other team has never won a single playoff game and thier best player is a soft 7 footer. Dallas had a first round bye last year plan and simple while the lakers this year could push any team to 6 or 7 games.

This playoffs won't be nearly as tough as playing the nuggets, sonics, suns and pistons in 05.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Isn't this the same idiot that said the mavs would win the finals when they were up 2 games? The one that inspired Wade?...............NEXT

[GrandeDavid]

Just a little blurb from a very long, tedious article written by the Dallas Boring News' Tim Colishaw, the premise of which seems to be that the NHL is a better league than the NBA because teams actually made significant trades this year:


One player can make a huge difference in the NBA. One trade could have shifted the balance of power (if you can use that word) in the East.

And everyone sat around doing nothing.

Likewise with the San Antonio Spurs, the Utah Jazz, the Los Angeles Lakers. These are very good teams with absolutely no shot at beating Dallas or Phoenix. And maybe one trade wouldn't have changed that.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/columnists/tcowlishaw/stories/030407dnspocowlishaw.3456c60.html

Ya know, like most others here I am very impressed with how well Dallas is playing this year. But sh*t happens and the team with the best regular season record ain't guaranteed nothing but the #1 seed in the playoffs. And to say none of the other top teams in the West can beat Phoenix belies the fact that the Suns have a losing record against those same teams.

More crack reporting from the Boring News. If Dallas does somehow manage to not win the championship these guys will probably commit suicide, so convinced are they of the Mavs' playoff invulnerability.

Before Mav fan goes berzerk, note that I am not denying the Mavs are, barring injury, favorites to win it. I just take issue with this "we're having a great regular season and there's no way anyone can beat us" mentality most of the sports writers up here display on a daily basis. You can bet Avery isn't taking teams for granted.

This Dallas hometown beat writer comes off like the inexperienced geek who finally MIGHT get some action, but...OOOOOOHHHHHHHH...prematurely blows it. The guys is talking out of his ass about something he knows nothing. Besides, does this idiot know San Antonio's recent record over Phoenix the past few seasons? How about in the 2005 playoffs? Nash was younger then. Stoudemire hadn't had microfracture surgery. And so Dallas squeaked by San Antonio for once in last year's playoffs. Let's let this year's playoffs actually arrive and the teams actually face one another before making completely unsubstantiated, garbage statements. How some beat writers get hired is beyond me. Must be a miserable job.

Veteran teams like San Antonio know all about the war and the grind, they've got championship experience a few times over. The regular season doesn't mean anything without a grain of salt. Blah blah blah.

Let's talk about something real, something with substance now.

[Obstructed_View]

The thing is, guys, NOBODY in Dallas wants to read an article saying the Mavericks can be beaten by the Spurs. Someone who would write that in a Dallas paper doesn't understand his audience or is Dale Hansen, who loves scaring the shit out of fans and has the clout to get away with it.

[peskypesky]

Ahh, I remember just a few years ago, all the "experts" declaring the lowly Detroit Pistons had no chance of defeating the might Shaq&Kobe-led Lakers. Remember that, people? Never underestimate the heart of a champion.

[Mavs are Champs]

The thing is, guys, NOBODY in Dallas wants to read an article saying the Mavericks can be beaten by the Spurs. Someone who would write that in a Dallas paper doesn't understand his audience or is Dale Hansen, who loves scaring the shit out of fans and has the clout to get away with it.

I disagree, I listen to the local sports media, ala ESPN 103.3, and in the past they are often hyper-critical over the mavs and their performance. Any local media is going to be partial to their team and to assume that that only relates to Dallas is asinine. Since when is the media a non-biased entitiy anyways.
Come on now, if one article upset Some spurs fans that bad, wow. A lot of the guys on this board say us Mav fans constantly bitch about getting no respect, and then one article comes up and boom: Its the Spurs against the world.Well, welcome to the Mavs world, where up until this year, and even more so up until this point and time during this season, especially after the loss in the Finals, have we really started garnering some national respect. Its going to be a hellla good playoffs this year.

[Dirkadirkastan]

That's a powerful speech, Havoc, but there's no way the Mavs should be viewed as Goliath, especially by 'dem Spurs.

[Extra Stout]

Dallas can and should be favored over the Spurs because:

1) They are a better team overall

2) They have matchup advantages against the Spurs.

But the overconfidence by the Dallas media is foolish. I just finished a statistical analysis of the Mavericks' season -- and they are not quite as strong as their record shows through 59 games.

Statistical gobbledygook below:

I took the point differential in each of their games and mapped out a normal distribution. By doing that, I can draw a line on the curve through "Point differential =0," and calculate the percentage of the integral of the normal distribution that lies under that line.

The Mavs' expected winning percentage is 75.13%, as opposed to their actual of 84.75%. They have 5 more wins than what their performance would predict. In actuality, they are a 62-win team that has won an unusual amount of close games.

While that is still serious title material, and Dallas rightly is the championship favorite, they are not so invincible as a lot of their fans and media might like to believe. It is no sure thing.

[dg7md]

This could inspire the Spurs to play hard against the Mavs.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Mr. Hollinger, going 23-4 in games decided by nine points or less cannot possibly be a matter of luck now, can it?

[Extra Stout]

Mr. Hollinger, going 23-4 in games decided by nine points or less cannot possibly be a matter of luck now, can it?
If statistically they should be only 18-9, then yeah, the extra 5 wins could be luck. +/-3 wins from the expected value is normal. 5 would be unusual, but not unheard of.

Nobody has been able to find any statistical measure for extraordinary "clutchness," only for choking. A "clutch" team performs equally as well under pressure as not. A choking team visibly underperforms.

[Obstructed_View]

I disagree, I listen to the local sports media, ala ESPN 103.3, and in the past they are often hyper-critical over the mavs and their performance. Any local media is going to be partial to their team and to assume that that only relates to Dallas is asinine. Since when is the media a non-biased entitiy anyways.
Okay, Dallas isn't a bandwagon town, dude. You've obviously never listened to the radio on the day after a Cowboys game. Being "hyper-critical" of the Mavs "in the past" wouldn't coincide with their losing, would it? Don't know if you've been paying attention or not, but they haven't lost in a while and still haven't gotten past blaming the officials for stealing their championship from them last season, complete with being almost completely unable to hide their glee that Dwayne Wade got severely injured.

Again, Cowlishaw knows better than to write an article splashing cold water on Mavericks fans during this incredible run, even in an article that's mostly about the NHL. Negativity doesn't sell papers in Dallas until a team starts to struggle. When the Mavs have a bad stretch and drop a few games in the next couple of weeks we'll see what the reaction is.

[Mavs are Champs]

If statistically they should be only 18-9, then yeah, the extra 5 wins could be luck. +/-3 wins from the expected value is normal. 5 would be unusual, but not unheard of.

Nobody has been able to find any statistical measure for extraordinary "clutchness," only for choking. A "clutch" team performs equally as well under pressure as not. A choking team visibly underperforms.

Almost any coach, or any athelete would say that a W is a W, and games and stats aren't tracked by how "lucky said team is. You can tweak numbers and stats to make your case by adjusting the formula. The true litmus test when watching these teams play, is to actually "watch." A LOT of these 5 to 6 point wins these Mavs have had are do to solid play, rebounding, defense, etc. The Mavs never seem worried throughout the game, and if the go down by 5 or 6, like last night, a timeout is called and Avery tweaks the game plan.

Then Boom, the Mavs go on a run. They are just playing really solid bball, much like the Spurs right now.

Luck comes into play when looking at which Orlando team the Mavs and Spurs had to play. :p:

[Obstructed_View]

Almost any coach, or any athelete would say that a W is a W, and games and stats aren't tracked by how "lucky said team is. You can tweak numbers and stats to make your case by adjusting the formula. The true litmus test when watching these teams play, is to actually "watch." A LOT of these 5 to 6 point wins these Mavs have had are do to solid play, rebounding, defense, etc. The Mavs never seem worried throughout the game, and if the go down by 5 or 6, like last night, a timeout is called and Avery tweaks the game plan.

Then Boom, the Mavs go on a run. They are just playing really solid bball, much like the Spurs right now.

Luck comes into play when looking at which Orlando team the Mavs and Spurs had to play. :p:

I agree. The Mavs are playing the way the Spurs have from time to time in the last fifteen years. If they get down, they don't panic because they know they are going to make a run. If the game is close at the end, they don't panic because they know they can play good defense and execute. Dirk is confident that he can get a shot, and if he can't get a shot, he knows someone is open that's not afraid to take an open shot he provides for them. The confidence is the factor in those games.

BUT: Everyone has a plan until they get hit.

[Mavs are Champs]

Okay, Dallas isn't a bandwagon town, dude. You've obviously never listened to the radio on the day after a Cowboys game. Being "hyper-critical" of the Mavs "in the past" wouldn't coincide with their losing, would it? Don't know if you've been paying attention or not, but they haven't lost in a while and still haven't gotten past blaming the officials for stealing their championship from them last season, complete with being almost completely unable to hide their glee that Dwayne Wade got severely injured.

Again, Cowlishaw knows better than to write an article splashing cold water on Mavericks fans during this incredible run, even in an article that's mostly about the NHL. Negativity doesn't sell papers in Dallas until a team starts to struggle. When the Mavs have a bad stretch and drop a few games in the next couple of weeks we'll see what the reaction is.

If that happens. You can't just cherry pick quotes to justify your argument. I said that the media was biased, but not just Dallas'. So what if a homer wants to write an article singing the praises of a team that has won 15 in a row after winning 13 and 12 straight and after going 50-5. So what do you think he should say; "The mavericks, who are breaking all kinds of team records, is so so and they should just go ahead and pack their bags come playoff time."
And trashing a team who plays solid every night is a hard thing to do. And almost any fan in Dallas will tell you that the Mavs blew their chance last year. They blamed the Mavs for sucking it up, not the refs, not even the Heat, which I dont think is entirely fair.
As for DWade getting hurt, it has nothing to do with the injury, it has everything to do with the wheelchair/shoulder display. It sucks when anyone gets hurt on any team, but tell me you wouldnt think it was a little ridiculous if Duncan, the cornerstone to your team, would be wheeled off after a SHOULDER injury. Im not convinced he wouldnt keep playing in spite of being hurt.

[SRJ]

Phoenix is a paper tiger. None of the contenders have anything to fear from them.

[Mavs are Champs]

I agree. The Mavs are playing the way the Spurs have from time to time in the last fifteen years. If they get down, they don't panic because they know they are going to make a run. If the game is close at the end, they don't panic because they know they can play good defense and execute. Dirk is confident that he can get a shot, and if he can't get a shot, he knows someone is open that's not afraid to take an open shot he provides for them. The confidence is the factor in those games.

BUT: Everyone has a plan until they get hit.
Agreed, just like last years Championship.

[SRJ]

If statistically they should be only 18-9, then yeah, the extra 5 wins could be luck. +/-3 wins from the expected value is normal. 5 would be unusual, but not unheard of.

Nobody has been able to find any statistical measure for extraordinary "clutchness," only for choking. A "clutch" team performs equally as well under pressure as not. A choking team visibly underperforms.

I'm willing to bet the Mavericks perform well in categories like FT%, FG%, TO, and REB. My theory is that teams that win more games than they should perform well in these categories, and I'll take a look at it as soon as I can.

[Obstructed_View]

If that happens. You can't just cherry pick quotes to justify your argument. I said that the media was biased, but not just Dallas'. So what if a homer wants to write an article singing the praises of a team that has won 15 in a row after winning 13 and 12 straight and after going 50-5. So what do you think he should say; "The mavericks, who are breaking all kinds of team records, is so so and they should just go ahead and pack their bags come playoff time."
Go back and read my post. My point is the writers in Dallas KNOW not to write articles saying something like that in the middle of a run like this, and I was explaining it to the Spurs fans that don't live up here. Cowlishaw wrote exactly what he was supposed to write. The Mavericks fans are in such an uproar there are guys logging onto Spurs message boards with ridiculous names like "Mavs are Champs". Why the fuck would a sportswriter want to go against that kind of incredible bandwagon passion? The average Mavericks fan doesn't know dick about basketball and actually thinks Mark Cuban is the reason the team is good. You sell papers to that kind of person by talking up why they should win, because otherwise they start focusing on Cowboys season.

[Mavs are Champs]

I'm willing to bet the Mavericks perform well in categories like FT%, FG%, TO, and REB. My theory is that teams that win more games than they should perform well in these categories, and I'll take a look at it as soon as I can.

I agree, the term clutch is too arbitrary. Its the same principal as being down by three with 5 seconds left. Who are the Spurs going to go to for that last second 3 point attempt. Duncan? Parker? Finley? Horry? (Rhetorical)

[FromWayDowntown]

Who are the Spurs going to go to for that last second 3 point attempt. Duncan? Parker? Finley? Horry? (Rhetorical)

Ginobili.

[Mavs are Champs]

Go back and read my post. My point is the writers in Dallas KNOW not to write articles saying something like that in the middle of a run like this, and I was explaining it to the Spurs fans that don't live up here. Cowlishaw wrote exactly what he was supposed to write. The Mavericks fans are in such an uproar there are guys logging onto Spurs message boards with ridiculous names like "Mavs are Champs". Why the fuck would a sportswriter want to go against that kind of incredible bandwagon passion? The average Mavericks fan doesn't know dick about basketball and actually thinks Mark Cuban is the reason the team is good. You sell papers to that kind of person by talking up why they should win, because otherwise they start focusing on Cowboys season.

Even if the Mavs win the Championship, the local media will start talking Cowboys the day after, thats just how Dallas is about the 'boys. I get your point, I really do. My point is that their is an entire thread dedicated on the Spurstalk board about what this one local sportswriter said about his team, and how it shouldnt matter, because thats how all sports writers are. And,,, you can't and shouldnt assume that just because theteam is doing well now, that everyone who likes them is a bandwagoneer. Thats not a fair assumption.

AS for my screen name, I like the Discussions overall on this board more so than other boards. I don't see a problem in engaging in some lively arguments with true sports fans on this site, and also trashing some of the idiots who like the Spurs because they are bandwagonners and thats all. Its ususally pretty easy to tell the difference. And read my signature if you are upset over the screen name.

[Mavs are Champs]

Ginobili.
Damnit, I said rhetorical, but how did I not put Ginobili in that list,, it messed up my whole point. :depressed

[Obstructed_View]

and also trashing some of the idiots who like the Spurs because they are bandwagonners and thats all. Its ususally pretty easy to tell the difference.
Like a Spurs fan who would join a division rival's fanboard after his team had won, I don't know, fifteen games in a row? Is that how you tell?

[FromWayDowntown]

Damnit, I said rhetorical, but how did I not put Ginobili in that list,, it messed up my whole point. :depressed

Yeah, I know.

[ponky]

i don't take much stock in local sportswriter, they mostly tend to be homers...bill simmons basically made the same assessments a couple of weeks ago after the trade deadline expired

[sghspurs]

keep the stupid articles coming cowlishaw. I love the fact that for once the spurs are not going to be picked by anyone to win so they can just fly under the radar, so to speak, and maybe ruin some teams "great" seasons.

[himat]

Some of the greatest teams in NBA History have been defeated by an 8th seed team on a roll. The Spurs are former NBA Champions, they are on a roll. If they are on a roll come playoff time they have a big chance to beat the Mavs, and Suns.

[ponky]

stop getting all riled up by a stupid article. it's a dallas media outlet, of course they're going to homer on the mavs, dang. anyway, wasn't cowlishaw the guy that avery snapped at last season during the playoffs? he's good for some laughs

[FromWayDowntown]

I honestly couldn't care less what some sportswriter thinks about the Spurs chances, because what he thinks has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with whether the Spurs will win or not. I do think that the Mavericks will face immense pressure from those closest to them come playoff time, but I suspect that they've been dealing with that to some extent for most of the last year. Even so, Tim Cowlishaw could write that the Mavericks will win this year's title every day from now until the end of the regular season and it won't negate the fact that, like every other team that qualifies for the playoffs, they'll have to win 16 games to get that done.

As for who holds what chances to win, I'll keep my own counsel about that. If Cowlishaw wrote tomorrow that he thinks the Raptors are the odds on favorites to win the title, it doesn't mean that Toronto should be dusting off those championship parade plans they used for the Blue Jays in 1993.

[Kent_in_Atlanta]

That was really a stupid thing to say by Colishaw. The spurs definitely have a shot at beating both the mavs and suns. Maybe not a great shot but it is possible.


Yes, they do have a great shot. I'm not predicting that the Spurs will beat the Mavs, but here's what people need to realize (particularly if they're planning to participate in any NBA office pools).

There have been many great NBA championship teams that laid low through most of the regular season. The Spurs are a veteran team that's been in the championship picture every year for a while now, and they know that the regular season really doesn't amount to much. Numerous NBA insiders (not the sports writers, but coaches, players, etc.) have been insisting for most of the season up till a few weeks ago that the Spurs were going through the motions until it's time to tune-up for the playoffs. Hard to argue with that now.

The fact of the matter is that the Spurs are playing at a championship level now, just like the Suns and especially the Mavs. December and January don't amount horse $#&#$ at this point.

Anyone who doesn't think the Spurs are as legit a title contender as there is in the NBA right now, hasn't been paying attention or they're just believing what they want to believe.

[phyzik]

And I learned my lesson (again) this year about how being written off so early by so many people affects a team. A lot of writers may not come out and say it, but the general feel is that the Mavs are an unstoppable juggernaut this year, and are practically impossible to stop come playoffs, if healthy.

Now, I realize that some analysts are saying the Spurs have a legit shot. Some even favor them due to more experience. But you just need to take one look at the Chicago Bears (and the Colts) from this past season to see what a team can do with a chip on it's shoulder.

Coming into the playoffs, neither team was expected to do much other than maybe win a playoff game or two and go home in the conference title game.

The Bears in particular were media underdogs, and every single ESPN analyst picked the Saints to beat them. Some went so far as to say there is "no way the Bears can beat this Saints team."

They were right. The Bears didn't beat them. They annihilated them, causing fumbles and offensive miscues all over the field with their defense. In much the same way, the Colts won, won, and then after being down early, came back to dominate the second half against the Patriots and win a Super Bowl.

Personally, I love being written off. I want our players to step into the series vs. the Mavs with the entire media saying it's going to be a 5 game laugher of a series for Dallas. I want Duncan and Parker to walk onto the court and just stare down the Mavs players. Then I want to see a series of the most physical, most overpowering, most pissed off Spurs basketball in our 30 years of existence as a franchise. I want to walk into game 1 and completely dismantle the Mavs.

Will it happen? Dunno. But I know that when a bunch of people tell a great team, "See that team over there? That's Goliath. You have no chance of beating him." Players like Tim Duncan often simply nod in agreement... and reach for a slingshot.


:tu

[Viva Las Espuelas]

wasn't cowlishaw the guy that avery snapped at last season during the playoffs? No. His name was ed or fred.

[Agloco]

If that happens. You can't just cherry pick quotes to justify your argument. I said that the media was biased, but not just Dallas'. So what if a homer wants to write an article singing the praises of a team that has won 15 in a row after winning 13 and 12 straight and after going 50-5. So what do you think he should say; "The mavericks, who are breaking all kinds of team records, is so so and they should just go ahead and pack their bags come playoff time."
And trashing a team who plays solid every night is a hard thing to do. And almost any fan in Dallas will tell you that the Mavs blew their chance last year. They blamed the Mavs for sucking it up, not the refs, not even the Heat, which I dont think is entirely fair.
As for DWade getting hurt, it has nothing to do with the injury, it has everything to do with the wheelchair/shoulder display. It sucks when anyone gets hurt on any team, but tell me you wouldnt think it was a little ridiculous if Duncan, the cornerstone to your team, would be wheeled off after a SHOULDER injury. Im not convinced he wouldnt keep playing in spite of being hurt.

You obviosuly haven't tried to walk after dislocating a sholder...........

Trust me, everytime you make any sort of movement it feels like your arm is being ripped out. Not fun.

The wheelchair was to help with immobilization as much as possible. It was hardly drama-queen material........

[supaphly119]

spurs starters are averaging less and less minutes and the mavs are getting more and more...it doesn't matter if you win all 82 games. the playoffs are an entirely different animal and i don't care who you are, if you play 90+ nba games you get tired.

[Mavs are Champs]

You obviosuly haven't tried to walk after dislocating a sholder...........

Trust me, everytime you make any sort of movement it feels like your arm is being ripped out. Not fun.

The wheelchair was to help with immobilization as much as possible. It was hardly drama-queen material........

where as odom's wheelchair. And yeah I tore my rotator cuff while playing baseball, also broke my wrist, both on the same play. Didnt need the wheelchair.

[CubanMustGo]

where as odom's wheelchair. And yeah I tore my rotator cuff while playing baseball, also broke my wrist, both on the same play. Didnt need the wheelchair.

You weren't a multi-million dollar investment and the franchise's future, either. :lol

[Mavs are Champs]

You weren't a multi-million dollar investment and the franchise's future, either. :lol
true, but odom is, and I didnt see a wheelchair/stretcher combo when he got hurt

...and the only reason i pointed out my injury was because it was assumed that I knew nothing about shoulder injuries.

[Mavs are Champs]

true, but odom is, and I didnt see a wheelchair/stretcher combo when he got hurt

...and the only reason i pointed out my injury was because it was assumed that I knew nothing about shoulder injuries.

referring to the $ investment, not the franchise part,, although I do think the lakers are in a world of hurt with him gone

[mavs>spurs2]

Ehh...i'd say the spurs CAN beat the mavs or suns but I don't THINK it will happen.

[phyzik]

I agree with Mavs fans that Wade is a punk... Fall down 7 times get up 8 my ass.... I've broken my collar bone playing football, 2 fingers when a car battery fell on my hand, been shot in the chest by my best friend on accident puncturing my lung when I was 13 and had to have a chest tube put in, broke my leg at a system of a down concert and shoved my way to the sound booth in the mash pit - took some asprin to stay for the concert - then proceeded to drive myself to the Methodist Hospital, had my skin scraped off in the hospital with a fucking brillo pad after I burned the shit out of it (THAT fucking brought tears to my eyes).

I dont care how much money he makes, he's a pussy.
















Mav fans are still gay though and cant wait for the playoffs when we have to put down the lame ass horse after it chokes. :lol

[mavs>spurs2]

I agree with Mavs fans that Wade is a punk... Fall down 7 times get up 8 my ass.... I've broken my collar bone playing football, 2 fingers when a car battery fell on my hand, been shot in the chest by my best friend on accident puncturing my lung when I was 13 and had to have a chest tube put in, broke my leg at a system of a down concert and shoved my way to the sound booth in the mash pit - took some asprin to stay for the concert - then proceeded to drive myself to the Methodist Hospital, had my skin scraped off in the hospital with a fucking brillo pad after I burned the shit out of it (THAT fucking brought tears to my eyes).

I dont care how much money he makes, he's a pussy.
















Mav fans are still gay though and cant wait for the playoffs when we have to put down the lame ass horse after it chokes. :lol

Wow sounds like you've had a rough time lol

[Mavs are Champs]

I agree with Mavs fans that Wade is a punk... Fall down 7 times get up 8 my ass.... I've broken my collar bone playing football, 2 fingers when a car battery fell on my hand, been shot in the chest by my best friend on accident puncturing my lung when I was 13 and had to have a chest tube put in, broke my leg at a system of a down concert and shoved my way to the sound booth in the mash pit - took some asprin to stay for the concert - then proceeded to drive myself to the Methodist Hospital, had my skin scraped off in the hospital with a fucking brillo pad after I burned the shit out of it (THAT fucking brought tears to my eyes).

I dont care how much money he makes, he's a pussy.














Mav fans are still gay though and cant wait for the playoffs when we have to put down the lame ass horse after it chokes. :lol

lemme guess, your name is "Lucky" right?
:downspin:

[mardigan]

Yea, I shattered 2 discs in my lower spine playing basketball, and drove myself to the hospital crying like a bitch, but I didnt need a wheelchair, but I guess I can understand why the franchise didnt want to take a chance. Wade is a baller, but yea maybe a little pussy-ish

[mikekim]

As of right now I am assuming that Phoenix is going to be playing San Antonio. I don't envy the trip San Antonio has to make this Post Season to get to the WCF, Same one, pretty much, that the Mavs had to make last year, going through a so so team (Lakers w/o Odom), then all of a sudden having to play a completely different type of team (run and gun, to hell with defense, Suns), THEN, if you win both of those games, play in the WCF against the Mavs ( yet again a different style of bball). Should be a stressful run for Spurs fans. I hope they make it,so we can see that Mavs-Spurs matchup

You got it right...it will be tough...very tough...

But what you said does sound very familiar (but not for the Mavs run last year, although I could definitely see that). In fact, it sounds eerily like the 2005 playoff run for the Spurs. That was when they had to face the thugs of Denver (yet they were a pretty damn good number 7 seed... and went into playoffs with some momentum if I remember correctly) and the thugs of Seattle (a bit more disrespectful...remember jerome james' "I give them no respect" comment?). Then the Spurs had to out-potentize the potent offense of the Suns, in a quick 5 games with high scoring I might add (except they forgot to out-potent amare...). THEN they had to finish it off against what many called their mirror-image, the mighty Detroit Pistons...

And we have to remember that run was with a hurt and limited Tim Duncan (although it was also with an insane Manu). But yes, I do think this year, the road might actually be a bit more difficult for the Spurs (MIGHT...that '05 didn't really seem like a walk in the park)...dallas and phoenix have improved (not to mention, Houston with Yao back should start looking much more dangerous pretty soon), Spurs are older of course, and they have looked a step behind for much of the season (although they're starting to get it together).

But assuming that Tim will remain 100% healthy and dominant, Parker recovers fully and quickly from his hip setback (which I think the Spurs are handling with a "better safe than sorry" approach anyways), and Manu's great regular season translates into an even greater '07 Playoff Manu (or I'll even take this year's regular-season Manu), with a focused and productive bench (mainly Elson, Barry, and Finley annnnd I guess some 3's from Rob won't hurt)...I think the Spurs will have to be considered one of the main contenders for the title along with the Mavs, Suns, and Pistons (I really don't want to make the mistake of ignoring the Pistons, like everyone did in '04). Now, keep in mind that much of these conditions have already been met or are currently, as we speak, in the process of being met.

Yeah...I don't know what this sportswriter in Dallas is thinking...I would be a bit annoyed if Buck Harvey or Johnny Ludden said something like that...although I have to confess, I haven't been reading as much of their articles since I've moved out here to LA, so I don't know if they have said anything that comes near to this level of stupidity...but I would doubt that they have.

"absolutely no shot"...yeah...sure, buddy...

[phyzik]

lemme guess, your name is "Lucky" right?
:downspin:

:lol

I was just a crazy kid, Im 27 come Saturday so its not like its been in a short time frame, and the last injury I had was the Brilo pad shit when I was 17... was high on something and my car was overheating, decided to put water in it and didnt the let engine cool down. :oops

I'll spare the gory details but I ran inside the gas station and put my hand in the beer cooler, the cashier was telling me to get my hand out and I said some shit to him that would have made satan himself blush :madrun

[Mavs are Champs]

Yea, I shattered 2 discs in my lower spine playing basketball, and drove myself to the hospital crying like a bitch, but I didnt need a wheelchair, but I guess I can understand why the franchise didnt want to take a chance. Wade is a baller, but yea maybe a little pussy-ish


He is for sure a baller, it just seems like everything is one big commercial opp. for him. The huge press conference today stressing that hes going to be back; When I saw that play I knew I would be listening to him "getting back up" to help his team. Im not saying that he faked the injury or anything, I just think he gets a little overdramatic and trys to capatilize on this whole " Im a warrior" thing.
I guess whatever works though, but im not buying into the whole "I fall down, but before I do, I hand over my keys to a Nav, get back up, ride a bike while listening to two heads talking to me on my shoulders, both of them asking me if Barkley wants me in his top five" thing.

[Mavs are Champs]

You got it right...it will be tough...very tough...

But what you said does sound very familiar (but not for the Mavs run last year, although I could definitely see that). In fact, it sounds eerily like the 2005 playoff run for the Spurs. That was when they had to face the thugs of Denver (yet they were a pretty damn good number 7 seed... and went into playoffs with some momentum if I remember correctly) and the thugs of Seattle (a bit more disrespectful...remember jerome james' "I give them no respect" comment?). Then the Spurs had to out-potentize the potent offense of the Suns, in a quick 5 games with high scoring I might add (except they forgot to out-potent amare...). THEN they had to finish it off against what many called their mirror-image, the mighty Detroit Pistons...

And we have to remember that run was with a hurt and limited Tim Duncan (although it was also with an insane Manu). But yes, I do think this year, the road might actually be a bit more difficult for the Spurs (MIGHT...that '05 didn't really seem like a walk in the park)...dallas and phoenix have improved (not to mention, Houston with Yao back should start looking much more dangerous pretty soon), Spurs are older of course, and they have looked a step behind for much of the season (although they're starting to get it together).

But assuming that Tim will remain 100% healthy and dominant, Parker recovers fully and quickly from his hip setback (which I think the Spurs are handling with a "better safe than sorry" approach anyways), and Manu's great regular season translates into an even greater '07 Playoff Manu (or I'll even take this year's regular-season Manu), with a focused and productive bench (mainly Elson, Barry, and Finley annnnd I guess some 3's from Rob won't hurt)...I think the Spurs will have to be considered one of the main contenders for the title along with the Mavs, Suns, and Pistons (I really don't want to make the mistake of ignoring the Pistons, like everyone did in '04). Now, keep in mind that much of these conditions have already been met or are currently, as we speak, in the process of being met.

Yeah...I don't know what this sportswriter in Dallas is thinking...I would be a bit annoyed if Buck Harvey or Johnny Ludden said something like that...although I have to confess, I haven't been reading as much of their articles since I've moved out here to LA, so I don't know if they have said anything that comes near to this level of stupidity...but I would doubt that they have.

"absolutely no shot"...yeah...sure, buddy...

Yeah I think that Houston may be the dark horse that Mavs, Spurs, and Suns fans are over looking. The Mavs only solace is that they will get to play either Utah or Houston AFTER they beat one another up. Its no shoe-in for anyone in the West this year..

[Obstructed_View]

I disagree. I think Utah is going to be the team someone's going to end up wishing they hadn't drawn.

[Mavs are Champs]

I disagree. I think Utah is going to be the team someone's going to end up wishing they hadn't drawn.

I could agree with that depending on the whole Boozer vs. Yao health thing. Both have good coaches, Utah has a better overall team, but Houston has TMac and Yao. I think that is going to be a badass first round series. I think both teams are being overlooked right now, being shadowed by the Mavs,Suns,Spurs Trio. While i am saying this cautiously, I also think that they are being overlooked by those three with good reason, they arent in the same league. That being said, I don't think the Mavs will over look them at all, they seem pretty focused right now and Avery is too good to let that happen.

[Obstructed_View]

I could agree with that depending on the whole Boozer vs. Yao health thing. Both have good coaches, Utah has a better overall team, but Houston has TMac and Yao. I think that is going to be a badass first round series. I think both teams are being overlooked right now, being shadowed by the Mavs,Suns,Spurs Trio. While i am saying this cautiously, I also think that they are being overlooked by those three with good reason, they arent in the same league. That being said, I don't think the Mavs will over look them at all, they seem pretty focused right now and Avery is too good to let that happen.
If everyone is healthy on both teams, Utah has the better talent and plays much more disciplined basketball. Houston will never beat you with execution.

[Mavs are Champs]

If everyone is healthy on both teams, Utah has the better talent and plays much more disciplined basketball. Houston will never beat you with execution.

True, but TMac is one of the scariest guys to play against. That being said it is a seven game series, and Dirk can, and usually does go point for point with him when they play each other.

Utah is tough for sure! Again, I dont think that after the first round, the playoffs are a lock for anyone.

[Obstructed_View]

True, but TMac is one of the scariest guys to play against.
You think I, as a Spurs fan, don't know that? :lol Seriously, when I was at the game in Houston in February, I was very, very impressed with him as a basketball talent. That talent, on that team, with that coach, will win a game or two, not a series.



I dont think that after the first round, the playoffs are a lock for anyone.After last year's playoffs, I'll buy that.

[MannyIsGod]

Mr. Hollinger, going 23-4 in games decided by nine points or less cannot possibly be a matter of luck now, can it?Actually, from a statistical point it probably IS luck. One bonce this way, one bounce that way can skew such a small sample - and in statistics 27 examples is an EXTREMELY small sample - to a large degree.

[MannyIsGod]

stop getting all riled up by a stupid article. it's a dallas media outlet, of course they're going to homer on the mavs, dang. anyway, wasn't cowlishaw the guy that avery snapped at last season during the playoffs? he's good for some laughsAll riled up? This thread is barely 2 pages long. How is that all riled up?

[johngateswhiteley]

the only team that can beat the Spurs is the mavs, and that series is a toss-up. the suns have zero chance of beating the Spurs in the playoffs...they just can't.

[Obstructed_View]

The Suns look (on paper) to have improved from last year a hell of a lot more than the Mavs have.

[J.T.]

Cowlishaw sucks on Around the Horn.

[Dirkadirkastan]

If the Mavs have a 2/3 chance of winning a close game (9 points or less), which is pretty good, the odds of winning 23+ out of 27 is still less than 3%...

[MannyIsGod]

If the Mavs have a 2/3 chance of winning a close game (9 points or less), the odds of winning 23+ out of 27 is less than 3%...Exactly.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Exactly what?

[MannyIsGod]

That even if the Mavs have a distinct edge in close games (and 2:1 is a pretty damn big edge) that the chances of them having the record they have now are very low and could easily be considered a statistical anamoly or "luck" if you will.

[Dirkadirkastan]

A low probability is an indication that you might have the wrong theory. If you're willing to accept any low probability as luck no matter how small it is, then you're not really taking the data into consideration at all.

3%? That's pretty darn small. Of course, if the odds were 1:1 instead of 2:1, then the odds of winning 23+ of 27 are less than 0.02%. Would just accept THAT model as truth too, and claim the Mavs are hitting a 1 in 5000 chance?

No. The 0.02% is a pretty sure sign that model's wrong. 3% is obviously better, but not that great. The only reason you would accept it is if you really wanted to believe the Mavs were lucky from the start. But like I said, that has nothing to do with the data.

If you wanted to bring that probability up to something reasonable, say 20%, which is still pretty darn lucky (just 1 in 5, not 1 in 33), then instead of 2/3=67% you would have to concede around 76%, more than 3:1.

But you said 2:1 was already a "damn big edge". But like I said, if you make it even smaller, then you're calling the Mavs lucky beyond all reason. That's not going with the best model, that's going with your preferred model.

Either you have to believe the Mavs are way off the charts lucky, or they're actually pretty good at winning close games. I choose the latter.

[MannyIsGod]

Having a 2:1 advantage in a situation where there are innumerable variables is a GIGANTIC edge. I'm not sure you realize how a close basketball game can change on a call, bounce, or any other of the numerous variables so having a 3:1 edge in that type of a situation is highly improbable.

You can choose to believe that if you wish, but there is no way I'm going to give the Mavs that kind of credit.

[mabber]

I disagree. I think Utah is going to be the team someone's going to end up wishing they hadn't drawn.

I agree that no one is going to want to play Utah as that will be a very physical series. With that said, I think a hot & healthy Houston team has a better chance of knocking off Dallas or San Antonio than does Utah.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Say the other half of your conclusion then.

"I believe the Mavs are lucky, to the point of 1 in 100, 1000, or maybe even 5000."

It is mathematically impossible for them to be lucky within reason AND without any special kind of skill. The numbers speak for themselves.

[MannyIsGod]

Not really - with a small sample size you can see large swings in either direction. And 27 games is an extremely small sample size, therefore its not unreasonable for the Mavs to be nowhere near where they should be statistically. Whether or not they are lucky or good is indistinguishable from 27 games therefore you can't really draw any conclusions. Me not wanting to gie them credit doesn't mean that I believe they are completely lucky (obviously the Mavericks are a good team) but rather that how good or how lucky they are remains to be seen.

[mabber]

The Suns look (on paper) to have improved from last year a hell of a lot more than the Mavs have.

Mavs (on the court) are playing much better than they did last season in several areas. It may not translate on paper but it's obvious to see if you've watched all their games last season & this season. They're really not playing that great during this current winning streak but they've played an easy schedule.

I've only seen about a dozen Sun's games so it's hard for me to compare them from last season. In the games I've seen though, I haven't seen the much improved D that everyone in Phoenix is talking about.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Dude, I'm using a formula.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution#Probability_mass_function

n in this case is 27, and I'm adding the values from k=23 through k=27. p is the probability that we're discussing. If p is small (close to 1/2), then the sum is EXTREMELY small (around 0.001), GIVEN THE NUMBERS.

The probability is less than 3% if you concede the original 2:1, and it gets worse as you decrease p. NUMBERS DO NOT LIE. It has nothing to do with the "small sample size" because the formula already took the 27 and 23 into account.

[MannyIsGod]

Run the formula for a team going 15-0 and tell me what it comes up with. It has everything to do with sample size.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Well, that's just p^15. But you have to give me a p. 2/3? If you are 2/3 likely to win a game, the chance of winning 15 straight is 0.002284, or about 1 in 438.

[MannyIsGod]

So a team with a 2:1 advantage will only win 15 in a row less than .25% according to the formula? You know thats a large underestimation, and the reason being that the sample size is so small that you will get wild deviations.

Hence, 27 games isn't enough to draw any conclusions.

[Dirkadirkastan]

The error would be in determining p, not the subsequent calculation.

You don't seem to put very much faith in math.

If the probability of flipping heads is 1/2, then the probability of flipping heads 8 times in a row is (1/2)^8 = 1/256. If you throw 8 coins on the floor, you have a 1/256 chance of getting 8 heads. In other words, If you throw them on the floor, pick them up, throw them again, pick them up, throw them again, etc. and repeat this for a few years, you will be astonished to find that you got 8 heads almost exactly once every 256 tries. The accuracy of the prediction has nothing to do with the fact that we're using 8 coins. The prediction will always be accurate. That's why we do math.

"You know that's a large underestimation"? Ha! No, I actually know it to be pretty spot on. What we've been talking about is a version that's a little more complicated since the probability isn't 1/2, but it's not really any different.

[Obstructed_View]

Mavs (on the court) are playing much better than they did last season in several areas. It may not translate on paper but it's obvious to see if you've watched all their games last season & this season. They're really not playing that great during this current winning streak but they've played an easy schedule.

I've only seen about a dozen Sun's games so it's hard for me to compare them from last season. In the games I've seen though, I haven't seen the much improved D that everyone in Phoenix is talking about.
Another Mavs fan that doesn't even know his own team. The Mavs had a ton of injuries last year, they've had almost none this year by comparison. The are as healthy right now as they were in the playoffs last year. The only difference is that this year they won't be as rested, and the other teams in the west have improved more than they have.

[mabber]

Another Mavs fan that doesn't even know his own team. The Mavs had a ton of injuries last year, they've had almost none this year by comparison. The are as healthy right now as they were in the playoffs last year. The only difference is that this year they won't be as rested, and the other teams in the west have improved more than they have.

:rolleyes :lol

I go to just about every home game as I have had season tickets for 4 years now and I have watch every road game for the last several years. Trust me, the level of play is higher than the level of play than last year's team (in many ways). I don't want to get in an argument about it as there's no way you know the Mavs as well as I do. Just like I don't know the Spurs as well as you do.

[Obstructed_View]

:rolleyes :lol

I go to just about every home game as I have had season tickets for 4 years now and I have watch every road game for the last several years. Trust me, the level of play is higher than the level of play than last year's team (in many ways). I don't want to get in an argument about it as there's no way you know the Mavs as well as I do. Just like I don't know the Spurs as well as you do.
Wow. Impressive resume. Too bad you didn't even remember that Howard, Harris, Stackhouse and Van Horn all missed a bunch of games due to injury, yet the Mavs still won 60 games. The Mavs are playing with the confidence that comes with health. Josh Howard has picked up the scoring and has become an even better rebounder. The level of play is higher because there's an actual rotation.

And if you want to know something about the Mavs, just ask me. I don't mind helping you out. I'm certain I've been watching them longer than you have.

[mabber]

Wow. Impressive resume. Too bad you didn't even remember that Howard, Harris, Stackhouse and Van Horn all missed a bunch of games due to injury, yet the Mavs still won 60 games. The Mavs are playing with the confidence that comes with health. Josh Howard has picked up the scoring and has become an even better rebounder. The level of play is higher because there's an actual rotation.

And if you want to know something about the Mavs, just ask me. I don't mind helping you out. I'm certain I've been watching them longer than you have.

That would be impossible since I've been watching them since day 1. I even had season tickets from year 2 to year 10 or so of their existence. I didn't get season tickets again until 4 years ago as I couldn't afford them for awhile.

I'm guessing that I'm much older than you (44), but unlike you, I'll not say I'm certain of it :rolleyes

Of course I'm aware of the injury situation compared to last season but that doesn't mean that they aren't playing better (individually and as a team). Dirk, Josh, Damp & Devin have all improved their games. The addition of George & Buckner has improved their perimeter defense big time.

They've improved their passing as a team as well and some of that is from them playing more together (less injuries) like you said but a lot of it is just having the core players together another year.

Regardless, you can believe what you want and continue to think you know the Mavs better than all Mav fans.

[vingian]

That even if the Mavs have a distinct edge in close games (and 2:1 is a pretty damn big edge) that the chances of them having the record they have now are very low and could easily be considered a statistical anamoly or "luck" if you will.


That's all the Mavs are this season.....an anomaly

:elephant :elephant :elephant :elephant

[Rummpd]

Wake me when this anomaly ever has a parade or a banner that means something.

[MannyIsGod]

The error would be in determining p, not the subsequent calculation.

You don't seem to put very much faith in math.

If the probability of flipping heads is 1/2, then the probability of flipping heads 8 times in a row is (1/2)^8 = 1/256. If you throw 8 coins on the floor, you have a 1/256 chance of getting 8 heads. In other words, If you throw them on the floor, pick them up, throw them again, pick them up, throw them again, etc. and repeat this for a few years, you will be astonished to find that you got 8 heads almost exactly once every 256 tries. The accuracy of the prediction has nothing to do with the fact that we're using 8 coins. The prediction will always be accurate. That's why we do math.

"You know that's a large underestimation"? Ha! No, I actually know it to be pretty spot on. What we've been talking about is a version that's a little more complicated since the probability isn't 1/2, but it's not really any different.:lol

I understand the math completely. The math is fundemental to what I do every day and you seem to misunderstand that with such a small sample you're liable to get wild results. You yourself pointd out that the averages don't come for YEARS.

Also - it is possible to flip a coin for YEARS and get heads each and everytime. The math does not say that is impossible, only that it is imporbable. You seem to misunderstand that you are establishing a probability and nothing more.

[Agloco]

Say the other half of your conclusion then.

"I believe the Mavs are lucky, to the point of 1 in 100, 1000, or maybe even 5000."

It is mathematically impossible for them to be lucky within reason AND without any special kind of skill. The numbers speak for themselves.


Save the odds for the poker table where luck regins supreme at the end of the day........

Skill decides basketball games, not random chance.

The Mavs are playing lights out right now, end of story. Put your damm stats book up already.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Sorry, Agloco, I'm just getting frustrated at middle-finger's ignorance.

The probability of throwing 8 coins on the floor and getting 8 heads is 1/256, whether it's your first try or your 9999999999th try. But it seems like he's saying that the probability is different in each case because "the sample size is small" which makes no sense.

[DubMcDub]

It's so pathetic to listen to middle finger clamor on and on about how the Mavs may be "lucky". Talk about letting your emotions and your hopes get in the way of rational thought.

[Agloco]

Sorry, Agloco, I'm just getting frustrated at middle-finger's ignorance.

The probability of throwing 8 coins on the floor and getting 8 heads is 1/256, whether it's your first try or your 9999999999th try. But it seems like he's saying that the probability is different in each case because "the sample size is small" which makes no sense.



I hate all of that shit anyway, it's why I stuck to medical physics. Screw statistical mechanics.

Already on ESPN I'm seeing questions about where the Mavericks rank among the all time great teams. It's too early for any of that shit, and too early for any of this statistical crap either.

Plain and vanilla: If the Mavericks continue to play like they have during the past 55 games, they will win the championship. Simple.

I don't think they can keep it up though........

[mabber]

I hate all of that shit anyway, it's why I stuck to medical physics. Screw statistical mechanics.

Already on ESPN I'm seeing questions about where the Mavericks rank among the all time great teams. It's too early for any of that shit, and too early for any of this statistical crap either.

Plain and vanilla: If the Mavericks continue to play like they have during the past 55 games, they will win the championship. Simple.

I don't think they can keep it up though........

Media needs stuff to talk/write about. A team on a hot streak makes that much easier for them to fill up space and air time.

[Obstructed_View]

But it seems like he's saying that the probability is different in each case because "the sample size is small" which makes no sense.
If there's a 50% probability that a coin will be heads, does that mean it lands on its edge if you only flip it once?

[MannyIsGod]

Sorry, Agloco, I'm just getting frustrated at middle-finger's ignorance.

The probability of throwing 8 coins on the floor and getting 8 heads is 1/256, whether it's your first try or your 9999999999th try. But it seems like he's saying that the probability is different in each case because "the sample size is small" which makes no sense.Is that really what I've been saying? Because I've said nothing of the sort. Apparently you're reading comprehension are a bit behind your math skills. What I've said is that with a small sample size you can achieve varying results that are no where near what they should be according to the numerical probability. You need to go through a large amount of tests before you get anywhere near where the probablity says you should be. Do you understand that?

[MannyIsGod]

I hate all of that shit anyway, it's why I stuck to medical physics. Screw statistical mechanics.

Already on ESPN I'm seeing questions about where the Mavericks rank among the all time great teams. It's too early for any of that shit, and too early for any of this statistical crap either.

Plain and vanilla: If the Mavericks continue to play like they have during the past 55 games, they will win the championship. Simple.

I don't think they can keep it up though........Don't tell him that - hell tell you sample size means dick. Apparently the there is no devation from the probability - ever.

[MannyIsGod]

If there's a 50% probability that a coin will be heads, does that mean it lands on its edge if you only flip it once?Owned.