What Exactly Is Clutch? (Dirk related)

[LEONARD]

taken from this blog:
http://www.mavscentral.com/showarticles.php?id=184

There has been some discussion going on in the forums on whether Dirk Nowitzki is too tight in “clutch” situations. More people think Dirk is still the man when it comes to taking these shots, while a voice or two thinks Jason Terry or someone else should step up to the plate to attempt these “clutch” shots.

So I decided to dive in statistically and see if Dirk is really “tight” in these situations or whether he is just normal Dirk. Everything I am going to look at will be since the beginning of last season (regular season only).

First off, I decided to look at the last two minutes of a game. Not totally crucial but you still need “big” shots in the final two minutes, especially if you are down or tied. And it looks like Dirk is tied for the second most game-tying or lead changing field goals in the last two minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime.

Most Game Tying/Lead Changing FGs, Last 2 Minutes – Since 2005-06

Player FGM
Kobe Bryant 19
Dirk Nowitzki 13
Paul Pierce 13
Mehmet Okur 13
Ben Gordon 13
Joe Johnson 12
Jason Terry 11
4 Others Tied With 11

So Both Dirk and JET have connected on a decent amount of crucial shots, but let’s now look at the final shot attempt. So the set criteria for this will be:

4th Quarter or OT
Under 24 seconds
Team is down by 1, 2 or the game is tied

The league average in these situations since the beginning of the 2005-06 season is 31.0%, which is much lower than the league average of 45.5% in normal situations. In these “last shot” attempts Dirk is shooting 30.8% (4-for-13) while Jason Terry is shooting 28.6% (2-for-7). So Dirk is right around the league average while JET is below, but neither is exceptionally good or bad in these situations.

For instance, both Pau Gasol and Carmelo Anthony are a deadly 58.3% (7-for-12), while Chauncey Billups is 6.7% (1-for-15) and Kobe Bryant is 18.2% (4-for-22).

Other Mavs who have taken shots include:

Jerry Stackhouse – 100.0% (1-for-1)
Josh Howard – 100.0% (2-for-2)
Devin Harris – 50.0% (1-for-2)
Greg Buckner – 0.0% (0-for-3)

Of those, the only one I can remember off the top of my head was Josh Howard’s lay-up against the Raptors earlier this season when Dirk was used a decoy. Otherwise, none of these really stand out nor have these players really been put in the situation on a more regular basis.

So what can we learn from this, Dirk and JET have both hit some big shots down the stretch in the last two years and when it comes to the last shot, both Dirk ad JET are right about the league average for making the last shot with Dirk slightly better than JET.

[monosylab1k]

How many of these guys have missed game-winning free throws? That also shoot 90% from the line?

[Bob Lanier]

There's no such thing as clutch, only choke. And Dirk is not a choker.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

How many of these guys have missed game-winning free throws? That also shoot 90% from the line?


ouch

[mardigan]

Clutch to me is Jordan hitting a game winning shot in the playoffs over Craig Ehlo to advance to the next round, thats clutch

[mabber]

taken from this blog:
http://www.mavscentral.com/showarticles.php?id=184

There has been some discussion going on in the forums on whether Dirk Nowitzki is too tight in “clutch” situations. More people think Dirk is still the man when it comes to taking these shots, while a voice or two thinks Jason Terry or someone else should step up to the plate to attempt these “clutch” shots.

So I decided to dive in statistically and see if Dirk is really “tight” in these situations or whether he is just normal Dirk. Everything I am going to look at will be since the beginning of last season (regular season only).

First off, I decided to look at the last two minutes of a game. Not totally crucial but you still need “big” shots in the final two minutes, especially if you are down or tied. And it looks like Dirk is tied for the second most game-tying or lead changing field goals in the last two minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime.

Most Game Tying/Lead Changing FGs, Last 2 Minutes – Since 2005-06

Player FGM
Kobe Bryant 19
Dirk Nowitzki 13
Paul Pierce 13
Mehmet Okur 13
Ben Gordon 13
Joe Johnson 12
Jason Terry 11
4 Others Tied With 11

So Both Dirk and JET have connected on a decent amount of crucial shots, but let’s now look at the final shot attempt. So the set criteria for this will be:

4th Quarter or OT
Under 24 seconds
Team is down by 1, 2 or the game is tied

The league average in these situations since the beginning of the 2005-06 season is 31.0%, which is much lower than the league average of 45.5% in normal situations. In these “last shot” attempts Dirk is shooting 30.8% (4-for-13) while Jason Terry is shooting 28.6% (2-for-7). So Dirk is right around the league average while JET is below, but neither is exceptionally good or bad in these situations.

For instance, both Pau Gasol and Carmelo Anthony are a deadly 58.3% (7-for-12), while Chauncey Billups is 6.7% (1-for-15) and Kobe Bryant is 18.2% (4-for-22).

Other Mavs who have taken shots include:

Jerry Stackhouse – 100.0% (1-for-1)
Josh Howard – 100.0% (2-for-2)
Devin Harris – 50.0% (1-for-2)
Greg Buckner – 0.0% (0-for-3)

Of those, the only one I can remember off the top of my head was Josh Howard’s lay-up against the Raptors earlier this season when Dirk was used a decoy. Otherwise, none of these really stand out nor have these players really been put in the situation on a more regular basis.

So what can we learn from this, Dirk and JET have both hit some big shots down the stretch in the last two years and when it comes to the last shot, both Dirk ad JET are right about the league average for making the last shot with Dirk slightly better than JET.

I recall the game winner that Stack made but don't recall who they beat. He made if from the corner with someone all over him.

The C.Billups stat is surprising since all the Piston fans on here say he's so clutch.

[mabber]

If you add in Dirk's big shots vs. the Griz & Spurs in the playoffs, I'd say he holds his own in making clutch shots.

[monosylab1k]

To me, making or missing the final gamewinner doesn't define whether you are clutch or a choker. It's how confident you play, and how well you execute under pressure (especially simple things like free throws). Jordan missed tons of gamewinners, but it's the way he played the two minutes beforehand that gave him the chance to even attempt a gamewinner.

And with Dirk, it's a real mixed bag. There's been times where he's unbelievably clutch, but there are far too many times where he's completely disappeared and choked. And missing free throws in those situations is absolutely unacceptable in my opinion.

I still want the ball in Dirk's hands with the game on the line...I'm just scared that he'll forego the shot and pass it to Dampier instead...

[mabber]

To me, making or missing the final gamewinner doesn't define whether you are clutch or a choker. It's how confident you play, and how well you execute under pressure (especially simple things like free throws). Jordan missed tons of gamewinners, but it's the way he played the two minutes beforehand that gave him the chance to even attempt a gamewinner.

And with Dirk, it's a real mixed bag. There's been times where he's unbelievably clutch, but there are far too many times where he's completely disappeared and choked. And missing free throws in those situations is absolutely unacceptable in my opinion.

I still want the ball in Dirk's hands with the game on the line...I'm just scared that he'll forego the shot and pass it to Dampier instead...

Yet if Damp holds on to the ball and dunks it then it's a great play.

Obviously, Dirk has had his failures but I just don't see the times you're talking about where he "completely disappears". At least not lately.

[monosylab1k]

Yet if Damp holds on to the ball and dunks it then it's a great play.

Obviously, Dirk has had his failures but I just don't see the times you're talking about where he "completely disappears". At least not lately.

Well he didn't exactly step up in those last 2 minutes and in the overtimes against Phoenix. 4 points in 2 overtimes if i remember correctly.

[Chris Childs]

Well he didn't exactly step up in those last 2 minutes and in the overtimes against Phoenix. 4 points in 2 overtimes if i remember correctly.

Does Dirk really have to be the go-to guy in late game situations? When I look at Dallas, with all of that talent on the team, I think to myself, why can't know one else besides Dirk step up? You have J Terry, Howard, Stackhouse, Harris who are all very good players and yet Dirk has to be the MJ of the team. Dirk is the superstar on the team but Dallas is just to deep to be talking about one player not being clutch.

[mardigan]

Yea, I definatley see Terry as more cold blooded than Dirk in those situations

[ponky]

Does Dirk really have to be the go-to guy in late game situations? When I look at Dallas, with all of that talent on the team, I think to myself, why can't know one else besides Dirk step up? You have J Terry, Howard, Stackhouse, Harris who are all very good players and yet Dirk has to be the MJ of the team. Dirk is the superstar on the team but Dallas is just to deep to be talking about one player not being clutch.

actually...............i agree.....but more than anything, sometimes i just fall down on my knees praying for someone, anyone, to drive it to the freakin' basket late in the game :lol

[mabber]

Does Dirk really have to be the go-to guy in late game situations? When I look at Dallas, with all of that talent on the team, I think to myself, why can't know one else besides Dirk step up? You have J Terry, Howard, Stackhouse, Harris who are all very good players and yet Dirk has to be the MJ of the team. Dirk is the superstar on the team but Dallas is just to deep to be talking about one player not being clutch.

It's best if the ball at least goes through Dirk as he'll be able to find an open guy if he's doubled or he'll have a mismatch 95% of the time if only one guy is covering him. Like most teams, they have a bunch of plays to choose from for last/key possessions and most of them are run through Dirk. They basically call for him to make a decision.

[monosylab1k]

Dirk is the superstar on the team but Dallas is just to deep to be talking about one player not being clutch.

If Dirk isn't stepping up for this team, then he's not a superstar.

There's a reason he's called the superstar of this team, and Terry Stack Howard etc. aren't given that label.

Regardles of how good or bad any of those guys play, in the end this team will live or die in the playoffs based on Dirk's performance, and his alone. He doesn't always have to be the go-to guy for a gamewinner, but he better be making significant contributions in those final minutes. And when it comes to that, Dirk has been a mixed bag so far.

[LEONARD]

Most consdier clutch to be just related to shooting, but passing and timely D can be "clutch" too IMO. Dirk's pass to Howard for a game winner earlier this season is one exactly.

I have no problem with Dirk taking every game winner or late game shot...same goes for Terry. It goes down from there...Stack, JHO, etc...

[Fromthebleachers]

To me, making or missing the final gamewinner doesn't define whether you are clutch or a choker. It's how confident you play, and how well you execute under pressure (especially simple things like free throws). Jordan missed tons of gamewinners, but it's the way he played the two minutes beforehand that gave him the chance to even attempt a gamewinner.

And with Dirk, it's a real mixed bag. There's been times where he's unbelievably clutch, but there are far too many times where he's completely disappeared and choked. And missing free throws in those situations is absolutely unacceptable in my opinion.

I still want the ball in Dirk's hands with the game on the line...I'm just scared that he'll forego the shot and pass it to Dampier instead...
perfect explanation. dirk made tons of shots in late game situations. your enot always going to have the game come down to the last shot so i think using that to define someone as clutch is entirely accurate. And besides, hes hit a lot of those already. Dirk is very confident late in ballgames. especially this year and thats when it counts. clutch to me is the consistent production and efficiency when a team needs it most whether it be in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th quarters. and he does that day in day out; every single game. Sad thing is is that of the hundreds of games hes played, all people seem to remember is the ones hes missed. Name more than a handfull of games this year when hes choked and ill name you almost 55 of them where he hasnt.

[Fromthebleachers]

Clutch isnt 100%. Its doing what ever you have to do to get the job done at the end of the day. Whether its making the extra pass, getting that steal or that rebound, hitting that shot or free throw, or even making a key stop late. Its always more than just one guy. No one person loses a game, so the blame should never fall on just one person.

[anon101]

Well he didn't exactly step up in those last 2 minutes and in the overtimes against Phoenix. 4 points in 2 overtimes if i remember correctly.

But he didn't 'step down' either. What gets missed in focusing on the last minute of regulation and then the overtimes is that Dirk was not playing well in general last week. Against Golden State, which never became a pressure situation, Dirk went 3-11 from the field and 7 of 9 (78%) from the stripe. In the game against Phoenix he was 11-28 overall and 8 of 12 (67%) from the stripe. Take out the pair of 'crunch-times' free throws in the last minute that everyone is focusing on and he was 7 of 10 (70%) from the stripe in that game. And he was 1-6 through the first half with Boston before finally breaking out out of the slump.

IOW, Dirk didn't play worse as the pressure got worse. He just was having a bad week and Phoenix happened to be able to take advantage.

(And in counter-point that he didn't 'lift his game' for the big game, I still don't understand the claims that this was a critical game for the Mavs. They were still 3 games ahead of the Suns in the Loss column and up 2-1 in the season series. I'm sure they wanted that game but they didn't 'need' it and they knew it. Hell, despite all the focus on one game, not even the biggest Mavs homer thinks we are going to sweep Phoenix in the playoffs. If we are almost certain to lose at least 1 when the games really count, why be surprised when we lose 1 when they don't. We lost 2 to Phoenix in last year's play-offs--and were still the team that advanced while they went home. If what it takes Phoenix to beat us is a double-overtime effort that takes so much out of them they can't be competitive for two games afterwards, I'll take it every time--that's a 4-2 series win.)

[sribb43]

I recall the game winner that Stack made but don't recall who they beat. He made if from the corner with someone all over him.

The C.Billups stat is surprising since all the Piston fans on here say he's so clutch.

it says since the beginning of 05-06, as I recall Stack hit a baseline jumper in Boston last season to give the Mavs the win

[mabber]

it says since the beginning of 05-06, as I recall Stack hit a baseline jumper in Boston last season to give the Mavs the win

That sounds right.

[LB7]

I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.

Who said this?

[mabber]

Who said this?

MJ

[sabar]

Clutch is not breaking down under pressure.
Choke is falling apart under pressure.

Clutch isn't performing above 100%, no one is going to go and shoot 25% above their FG% average in a clutch situation. Most analysts don't even consider clutch as a way to describe someone -- you either keep playing like you do under pressure or you fall apart from pressure and nervousness.

In other words, you either choke or you don't choke.

Dirk isn't a career choker if you will. He has choked at select games, but so do all athletes. His percentages in pressure situations are way too high IMO to be a choker.

Horry has clanked a ton of game winning and game tying shots in the games that he's played. But he's remembered for the ones he hit, specifically, playoffs.

[Fromthebleachers]

failures are much more publicized than victories

[Dirk41MVP]

if you don't think dirk's clutch or he's a choker, just ask san antonio fans...

[dbreiden83080]

Winning when it is all on the line and coming through when your team needs it most. Carrying your team when neccesarry to a title. Dirk had his shot at doing that last year and after playing lights out against the Spurs he came up empty in the big games in the finals. He'll get another shot this year to shake this label.

[RonMexico]

Yeah, this article is dumb. Before 2003, Steve Nash was 1-14 in "clutch," and "pressure" situations. Now, he's racked up 2 MVPs and the Suns want the ball in nobody else's hands but his.