Flight3107
03-26-2007, 02:33 PM
Don't stereotype Dirk by: John Hollinger
posted: Monday, March 26, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki
When it comes to basketball, we're all fascinated by the little guys. For starters, guards have the ball in their hands for much of the game and, in addition, the buckets they make tend to be more spectacular and skillful. Moreover, we relate better to guys nearer to our own size.
For that reason, both fans and media alike have tended to make the same mistake over and over again: Overrating guards at the expense of the big guys who, invariably, are the major difference between winning and losing.
I say that by way of introduction to my assessment of the MVP race. Two guards -- Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant -- are two of the most entertaining players you'll ever see, and certainly among the game's elite. However, if you're filling out an MVP ballot and the top two names on it aren't Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan, I think you've got some serious explaining to do.
While watching the latter two players quietly and methodically dominate might not be as TV-friendly as the exploits of Nash and Kobe, I don't think there's any question they've been the league's two most effective players this season.
In Duncan's case, MVP voters seem to have given themselves license to ignore the fact that the Spurs are the league's top defensive team every year (though they trail Houston by a whisker at the moment), and that he is the main reason for that. He's an easy No. 2 on my ballot, backed by stats (20.0 points, 10.8 boards, 53.5-percent shooting) that would be even more spectacular if the June-focused Spurs weren't limiting him to 34.4 minutes per game.
But the king of killing you softly is Nowitzki. He can be hard to appreciate because one of his greatest attributes is the absence of negative plays. Nowitkzi turns the ball over on only 8.1 percent of the possessions he uses, the lowest rate among the league's go-to guys (which I've defined as a Usage Rate of 25.0 or higher; Michael Redd, at 8.3 percent, is second).
Throw in averages of 50.1 percent from the floor, 90.1 percent from the line and you get a true shooting percentage of 60.6 -- again, this is the best among go-to guys (Bryant is a distant second at 58.9 percent; Nash devotees will note he leads the league in this category at 65.5 but doesn't have a high enough Usage Rate to qualify). Combined with his 41.8-percent shooting from 3-point range, and he's banging on the door of the prestigious 50-40-90 club.
Moreover, the combo of rare turnovers and few misses means he gets his points while still leaving plenty of possessions on the table for other Mavs to score. That consequently explains why Dallas can have such an efficient offense even with a largely shoot-first, one-on-one crew.
Where Nowitzki suffers in the MVP chase is that he's already been stereotyped. When he came into the league he was a sieve on defense and shot mostly jumpers on offense. Despite the considerable evolution of his game since then, some voters still want to pigeonhole him.
This topic got Avery Johnson a bit fired up when I talked to him before the Mavs played in Atlanta yesterday.
"Because he's still perceived as a jump shooter some people don't ever see him post up, because they just want to be critical of his game," said Johnson. "Same thing defensively. He's made improvements defensively and I wouldn't say that if it wasn't the truth. But he's still going to be perceived as a guy that doesn't play defense."
Johnson noted that Nowitzki's defense has improved across the board this year -- on the ball, on the help side, and on the glass (where his 15.4 Rebound Rate is a career-best). And one thing I'll add, since Johnson didn't, is that Dirk has also picked up a wicked strip move when guys post him up.
But, of course, the real problem for opponents is guarding him offensively. I'll let an opposing coach explain.
"He's a big 4, but he's a mobile 4," said Hawks coach Mike Woodson. "The fact that he can shoot a jump shot with major range causes some problems for all guys that guard him. You try to go small on him, he just backs you down and shoots over you. You go big and he can go around you ... He causes match-up problems all over the floor with him being a 7-footer. He's beautiful to watch."
And when the Mavs post him up at the foul line, as they've done so successfully the past two seasons, it's pretty much a case of picking your poison.
"It's tough because you can't double in the middle of the floor. If you do that you're going to leave somebody, and the rotation patterns are so much tougher," said Woodson.
As a result, he's second in the league in Player Efficiency Rating -- trailing only the injured Dwyane Wade -- and has Dallas on top of the West with a scintillating 58-11 mark.
So while he may not be spectacular, he's devastatingly effective -- even moreso than the equally-methodical Duncan. Thus, as good as Nash and Kobe have been, I can't put either of them higher than third on my MVP ballot. Sorry.
The two big guys in Texas have been the league's two most valuable performers this season, and I'm pretty sure one of them will be walking off with the Larry O'Brien Trophy this June. If it was up to me (relax, by the way -- it isn't), Nowitzki will get another trophy about a month prior, as the league's first European MVP. Judge his overall game instead of his jump-shooting stereotype, and it's pretty clear he deserves it.
posted: Monday, March 26, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki
When it comes to basketball, we're all fascinated by the little guys. For starters, guards have the ball in their hands for much of the game and, in addition, the buckets they make tend to be more spectacular and skillful. Moreover, we relate better to guys nearer to our own size.
For that reason, both fans and media alike have tended to make the same mistake over and over again: Overrating guards at the expense of the big guys who, invariably, are the major difference between winning and losing.
I say that by way of introduction to my assessment of the MVP race. Two guards -- Steve Nash and Kobe Bryant -- are two of the most entertaining players you'll ever see, and certainly among the game's elite. However, if you're filling out an MVP ballot and the top two names on it aren't Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan, I think you've got some serious explaining to do.
While watching the latter two players quietly and methodically dominate might not be as TV-friendly as the exploits of Nash and Kobe, I don't think there's any question they've been the league's two most effective players this season.
In Duncan's case, MVP voters seem to have given themselves license to ignore the fact that the Spurs are the league's top defensive team every year (though they trail Houston by a whisker at the moment), and that he is the main reason for that. He's an easy No. 2 on my ballot, backed by stats (20.0 points, 10.8 boards, 53.5-percent shooting) that would be even more spectacular if the June-focused Spurs weren't limiting him to 34.4 minutes per game.
But the king of killing you softly is Nowitzki. He can be hard to appreciate because one of his greatest attributes is the absence of negative plays. Nowitkzi turns the ball over on only 8.1 percent of the possessions he uses, the lowest rate among the league's go-to guys (which I've defined as a Usage Rate of 25.0 or higher; Michael Redd, at 8.3 percent, is second).
Throw in averages of 50.1 percent from the floor, 90.1 percent from the line and you get a true shooting percentage of 60.6 -- again, this is the best among go-to guys (Bryant is a distant second at 58.9 percent; Nash devotees will note he leads the league in this category at 65.5 but doesn't have a high enough Usage Rate to qualify). Combined with his 41.8-percent shooting from 3-point range, and he's banging on the door of the prestigious 50-40-90 club.
Moreover, the combo of rare turnovers and few misses means he gets his points while still leaving plenty of possessions on the table for other Mavs to score. That consequently explains why Dallas can have such an efficient offense even with a largely shoot-first, one-on-one crew.
Where Nowitzki suffers in the MVP chase is that he's already been stereotyped. When he came into the league he was a sieve on defense and shot mostly jumpers on offense. Despite the considerable evolution of his game since then, some voters still want to pigeonhole him.
This topic got Avery Johnson a bit fired up when I talked to him before the Mavs played in Atlanta yesterday.
"Because he's still perceived as a jump shooter some people don't ever see him post up, because they just want to be critical of his game," said Johnson. "Same thing defensively. He's made improvements defensively and I wouldn't say that if it wasn't the truth. But he's still going to be perceived as a guy that doesn't play defense."
Johnson noted that Nowitzki's defense has improved across the board this year -- on the ball, on the help side, and on the glass (where his 15.4 Rebound Rate is a career-best). And one thing I'll add, since Johnson didn't, is that Dirk has also picked up a wicked strip move when guys post him up.
But, of course, the real problem for opponents is guarding him offensively. I'll let an opposing coach explain.
"He's a big 4, but he's a mobile 4," said Hawks coach Mike Woodson. "The fact that he can shoot a jump shot with major range causes some problems for all guys that guard him. You try to go small on him, he just backs you down and shoots over you. You go big and he can go around you ... He causes match-up problems all over the floor with him being a 7-footer. He's beautiful to watch."
And when the Mavs post him up at the foul line, as they've done so successfully the past two seasons, it's pretty much a case of picking your poison.
"It's tough because you can't double in the middle of the floor. If you do that you're going to leave somebody, and the rotation patterns are so much tougher," said Woodson.
As a result, he's second in the league in Player Efficiency Rating -- trailing only the injured Dwyane Wade -- and has Dallas on top of the West with a scintillating 58-11 mark.
So while he may not be spectacular, he's devastatingly effective -- even moreso than the equally-methodical Duncan. Thus, as good as Nash and Kobe have been, I can't put either of them higher than third on my MVP ballot. Sorry.
The two big guys in Texas have been the league's two most valuable performers this season, and I'm pretty sure one of them will be walking off with the Larry O'Brien Trophy this June. If it was up to me (relax, by the way -- it isn't), Nowitzki will get another trophy about a month prior, as the league's first European MVP. Judge his overall game instead of his jump-shooting stereotype, and it's pretty clear he deserves it.