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04-06-2007, 06:43 PM
Playoff sneak peek
Playoff sneak peek

By Steve Kerr, Yahoo! Sports
April 6, 2007





SAN ANTONIO – The matchup appears inevitable, complete with all its nuances: the total contrast in styles, Steve Nash's brilliance against Tony Parker's speed, the methodical dominance of Tim Duncan against the explosive youth of Amare Stoudemire and Gregg Popovich's defensive obsession against Mike D'Antoni's need for high-scoring, frenetic basketball.

It's all there, and in all likelihood we're going to see it live and in color in a best-of-seven series sometime in May.

On Thursday night we got a sneak preview of that potential playoff matchup, and if the San Antonio Spurs' 92-85 win over the Phoenix Suns proved anything, it's that San Antonio might be the only team in the NBA that can slow the Suns down.

The two clubs are locked in as the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the Western Conference, so barring a major first-round upset, they will meet in the West semifinals. Phoenix's main focus in the final two weeks of the season is securing the two spot, which carries with it the home-court advantage in an eventual series with the Spurs. But San Antonio kept that race alive with Thursday's win and is now within range of the Suns, sitting just two games back and owning the tiebreaker in case the teams are even in the standings. With seven games remaining, Phoenix doesn't have much breathing room trying to secure that second seed.

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Of more concern for the Suns, though, is the manner in which the Spurs controlled the tempo Thursday night.

For most of the game, Phoenix's vaunted running attack was held in check. San Antonio used its execution in the half court to slow things down, accomplishing that task by taking care of the ball and establishing Tim Duncan in the post. Tony Parker attacked when he had an advantage and got plenty of easy hoops in scoring a season-high 35 points, but in the half court, the Spurs opted not to launch quick jump shots that might result in rebounds and fast breaks. Instead, they went to Duncan, who had his way with Stoudemire and Boris Diaw.

Unable to deal with Duncan by using smaller defenders, the Suns were forced to counter with Kurt Thomas. While Thomas did a great job defensively on Duncan, his presence meant Phoenix couldn't go with its small, quick lineup to expose matchups and quicken the pace. The result was a tempo that San Antonio was very comfortable with.

Therein lies the rub for the Suns: If they go small, they can't guard Duncan. If they put Thomas in the game, they can't run. That's why the Spurs have been the one NBA team capable of slowing down Phoenix the past couple of years. And by keeping the Suns in the half court, San Antonio has been able to deny them open looks at three-pointers.

Much of Phoenix's success in recent years has come from its firepower from the three-point line. Against the rest of the league the last three seasons, the Suns have averaged 25 three-point attempts, making about 10 per game. Against San Antonio, those numbers are down considerably – 16 three-point attempts and fewer than six made per game (they made just two of 11 Thursday). Without a big three-point advantage or many open-court opportunities, Phoenix has been unable to play its customary relentless style against the Spurs. That's why San Antonio has now won 15 of the last 19 meetings between the two clubs, including the playoffs.

With all that said, and with the Suns shooting a mere 38.6 percent Thursday night, Phoenix was still within four points at 84-80 late in the game. The Spurs needed to make a couple of big stops late to secure the victory. If you're the Suns, you walk away thinking, "Wow, we played horribly and we had a chance to win." But the reality is, if San Antonio plays its style and doesn't allow Phoenix to shoot threes or get out in transition over an entire seven-game series, the Spurs are going to win. That's their style – it's what they do.

For the Suns to beat San Antonio, Amare Stoudemire has to be able to defend Duncan. Thomas will be counted on during certain possessions, but if Stoudemire can hold his own defensively and stay on the floor, Phoenix is more likely to play the game at its pace.

The Suns can slide Shawn Marion to the four, put three guards on the court and try to run and shoot like crazy. And with the Spurs so focused on staying home with three-point shooters, Stoudemire can use the open space in the lane to attack the rim. That's what he did in the teams' 2005 West finals series – won 4-1 by San Antonio – when he averaged 37 points a game. Thursday was a different story, however. Stoudemire scored only 15 points on 7-of-19 shooting, and he was never a factor.

This game was a barometer of sorts for each club, and the Spurs liked what they saw. Phoenix, on the other hand, found out it is going to have to make some adjustments if it's going to beat San Antonio. The first order of business is to try to secure the two seed and the home-court advantage. But if this matchup occurs in May, the Suns will have to figure out how to play their game – not San Antonio's.


Steve Kerr is Yahoo! Sports' NBA analyst. Send Steve a question or comment for potential use in a future column or webcast.