SpursFanFirst
04-20-2007, 08:28 AM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/ian_thomsen/04/19/five.minute.guide/index.html
With the six-month "preseason'' complete, we now enter the two-month real season: Sixteen teams, as many as 105 games, and the best basketball on the planet. Here are a few things to watch for as spring approaches summer:
Most Intriguing Storylines
In chronological order:
Will Tracy McGrady win a playoff series?
He is 0-for-5 in the opening round, but this is the first time his team will have home court advantage. More important than his personal record, the Rockets need to win this postseason to set themselves up for a title run next year.
Will the Bulls win a playoff series?
When Chicago VP John Paxson talked in this space this week about the Bulls' need for a low-post scorer to "settle the game down,'' he was practically forecasting the reason for their collapse Wednesday at New Jersey. That weak-kneed 106-97 loss dropped the Bulls from the East's No. 2 seed (where they would have faced the sub-.500 Nets) to No. 5, which now forces them to take on the defending champion Heat -- with the Pistons waiting for them in Round 2, if the Bulls are so lucky.
Despite their home court advantage, the young Bulls will be underdogs against Miami. It says a lot about their youth and their perimeter lopsidedness that the Bulls couldn't win the one game they needed against the Nets. Though it might ultimately have done them a favor, for there'll be no overrating their talent now. This series against Miami, coming off the demoralizing loss at New Jersey, will tell Paxson everything he needs to know about the Bulls' resilience, toughness and offseason needs.
Will LeBron James recreate last year's playoff run?
The answer is an emphatic yes, and -- again -- it's all thanks to Chicago's defeat. That win by New Jersey was easily the biggest game of the NBA season, because it swung James' Cavaliers from the No. 5 seed (and early rounds against Miami and Detroit) all the way up to No. 2, where they should breeze past the depleted Wizards (let the alarms sound on the Cavs' professionalism if they need more than five games to win that series) toward a second-round matchup on their home court against the Raptors or Nets. Instead of a first-round loss to Miami and all of the inner-sanctum torment that surely would have followed, the Cavaliers now have a legitimate shot of winning the Eastern finals against an older, tired team from Detroit or Miami. The young Michael Jordan never had it this easy.
Which version of the Heat will show up?
Will they keep things slow to play through Shaquille O'Neal? Will Dwyane Wade feel healthy enough to drive the paint -- and if so will their tempo inch up? They won the championship playing through Wade last year, but this year's team looks stronger going through Shaq, who led them back into contention in Wade's absence.
Will the elderly Spurs win their fourth title?
This team isn't exactly feeble: They won 58 games while limiting Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to fewer minutes than last year. They could have challenged Dallas and Phoenix all season, but that would have worn them out for the postseason run. Duncan is far more healthy now than last year, when his Spurs blew Game 7 to Dallas. San Antonio is the most intriguing team of the playoffs.
Can the Suns win without defending?
This has to be the year: Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa have never been better, and Amarι Stoudemire grows stronger every month. If they don't get past the Spurs and Mavericks this time, will owner Robert Sarver be willing to pay a luxury tax next season? Or will he seek traditional moves to improve the defense while trimming payroll?
Will the Mavericks break through?
No contender was more dominant, deeper or tougher than the Mavs, who established a high level of consistently hard play night after night that recalls the 2002-03 Spurs, the 1999-2000 Lakers and the latter-day Bulls of Jordan. The only thing left for Dirk Nowitzki to prove is that he can lead his team through Games 5, 6 and 7 of the playoffs in May and June. Will his Mavericks feel the pressure -- or will they exert it?
Can the East win the championship?
Detroit and Miami (if everything falls into place) are the two teams with the size and experience capable of knocking off Dallas, San Antonio or Phoenix in the NBA Finals. To do so they must control tempo over seven games, and that's a longshot.
Watch Out For ...
These dangerous teams or players are capable of elevating their games in the playoffs:
LeBron James: Will he build on last year's sensational playoff debut? James is capable of driving the Cavaliers through the wide-open East to the Finals.
Houston Rockets: Yao Ming is potentially the league's best center, McGrady is a dominant scorer and playmaker, and the Rockets led the league in field-goal defense. Because of injuries, they were unable to prove themselves at the highest level during the regular season -- they were just 28-24 in conference and 4-8 against Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio. If they coalesce during the playoffs, they'll make it a four-team race in the West.
Toronto Raptors: By earning the No. 3 seed, they've avoided Detroit and Miami during the first two rounds. The Raptors should get by New Jersey, and their recent 15-4 sprint as the most impressive Eastern team down the stretch demonstrates that they won't surrender to Cleveland in the second round. The playoff inexperience of Chris Bosh may be offset by the big-game familiarity of Juan Dixon and Rasho Nesterovic as well as Jose Calderon, Anthony Parker and rookie Andrea Bargnani, who have a history of coming up big in the European playoffs.
Jason Kidd: He led the Nets to victory against his nemesis Scott Skiles on Wednesday. Can he will former Raptor Vince Carter to avenge himself against his old team? Yes he can, but that might not be enough to advance.
Kobe Bryant: He is by far the most dangerous individual in these playoffs. His Lakers have been slumping, but Bryant could single-handedly lead the Lakers past Phoenix in the first round.
Best Round 1 Matchups
Don Nelson vs. the Mavericks: Golden State looks like it has the Mavericks' number, but that was a regular-season mirage. The Warriors will make the first round interesting, but they can't knock off the league's dominant side.
Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson vs. San Antonio: They won 10 of their final 11 to surge past the woebegone Lakers, but the individualistic Nuggets are about to be assimilated by the Borg-like Spurs. Resistance is futile.
Jeff Van Gundy vs. Jerry Sloan: Never will you see two more miserable-looking men doing something they love. And doing it better than almost anybody else. The winner wears the bigger frown.
Grant Hill vs. Detroit: Will this postseason homecoming be Hill's farewell? Just the opposite, I predict: It will complete his seven-year Orlando odyssey, and send him off in search of a new twilight career with a championship contender.
Vince Carter vs. Toronto: The criticism of Carter is that he doesn't bring it every night. That might not be a problem in this series.
Biggest Threats to Dallas
By order of the threat they pose:
1. Spurs: They have the requisite blend of defensive/offensive balance, depth, experience and inspiration after losing to Dallas last year.
2. Suns: If Nash can lead Phoenix past San Antonio, then he'll be capable of knocking off the Mavericks.
3. Pistons: Miami can't win in the Finals against Dallas, but Detroit can -- by controlling tempo, executing its half-court offense through Chris Webber and relying on the last-minute shooting of Chauncey Billups.
4. Rockets: Dallas had better kill them off early; the longer the Rockets survive, the more opportunity for them to discover rhythm and confidence. (Utah's defensive impotence -- should the Jazz advance to the second round -- will provide an easier mark for the Mavs.)
5. Warriors: If they steal a close game or two, the Warriors can enervate Dallas and shake its confidence heading into the latter rounds.
Five Useless Pieces of Crucial Information
Over the last five years, the team without home court advantage has won 21 percent of postseason series, making the NBA playoffs far and away the most predictable tournament in pro sports. (Over the same period, road teams have won 60 percent of the baseball playoffs and 36 percent of the NFL playoffs.)
The No. 8 seed is 0-8 since the NBA lengthened the first round to a best-of-seven format in 2002-03.
The NBA champion has been the No. 1 or 2 seed in its conference for the past 11 years; the last underdog champion was No. 6 Houston in 1994-95 during Jordan's abbreviated retirement.
NBA contenders who lack recent playoff success are historically incapable of winning the championship. Earning a ring is at minimum a two-year process, which means there is little chance the Rockets, Bulls, Raptors or Jazz -- whose core of players has yet to win a playoff series -- will suddenly catch fire and sprint to the title. The last group of players to earn the championship a month after winning its first playoff series was the 1976-77 Portland team.
The Pistons and Suns are trying to become the first champion without a 7-footer on the roster since the 1982-83 Philadelphia 76ers, who were led by 6-10 MVP Moses Malone.
Buzzer Beaters
3. On principle I'm sticking with my preseason pick of Phoenix to beat Miami in the Finals. However ...
2. The most likely champions, in order, are Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, Detroit. A title for any other team (including Miami, which is too unsettled entering the playoffs) would require, by NBA standards, a miracle.
1. Last week an Eastern Conference coach tried to convince me that the Spurs will win the whole thing, and he may be right. They may have fooled us all year long. Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Popovich may yet have been the best coach in the league ... again.
With the six-month "preseason'' complete, we now enter the two-month real season: Sixteen teams, as many as 105 games, and the best basketball on the planet. Here are a few things to watch for as spring approaches summer:
Most Intriguing Storylines
In chronological order:
Will Tracy McGrady win a playoff series?
He is 0-for-5 in the opening round, but this is the first time his team will have home court advantage. More important than his personal record, the Rockets need to win this postseason to set themselves up for a title run next year.
Will the Bulls win a playoff series?
When Chicago VP John Paxson talked in this space this week about the Bulls' need for a low-post scorer to "settle the game down,'' he was practically forecasting the reason for their collapse Wednesday at New Jersey. That weak-kneed 106-97 loss dropped the Bulls from the East's No. 2 seed (where they would have faced the sub-.500 Nets) to No. 5, which now forces them to take on the defending champion Heat -- with the Pistons waiting for them in Round 2, if the Bulls are so lucky.
Despite their home court advantage, the young Bulls will be underdogs against Miami. It says a lot about their youth and their perimeter lopsidedness that the Bulls couldn't win the one game they needed against the Nets. Though it might ultimately have done them a favor, for there'll be no overrating their talent now. This series against Miami, coming off the demoralizing loss at New Jersey, will tell Paxson everything he needs to know about the Bulls' resilience, toughness and offseason needs.
Will LeBron James recreate last year's playoff run?
The answer is an emphatic yes, and -- again -- it's all thanks to Chicago's defeat. That win by New Jersey was easily the biggest game of the NBA season, because it swung James' Cavaliers from the No. 5 seed (and early rounds against Miami and Detroit) all the way up to No. 2, where they should breeze past the depleted Wizards (let the alarms sound on the Cavs' professionalism if they need more than five games to win that series) toward a second-round matchup on their home court against the Raptors or Nets. Instead of a first-round loss to Miami and all of the inner-sanctum torment that surely would have followed, the Cavaliers now have a legitimate shot of winning the Eastern finals against an older, tired team from Detroit or Miami. The young Michael Jordan never had it this easy.
Which version of the Heat will show up?
Will they keep things slow to play through Shaquille O'Neal? Will Dwyane Wade feel healthy enough to drive the paint -- and if so will their tempo inch up? They won the championship playing through Wade last year, but this year's team looks stronger going through Shaq, who led them back into contention in Wade's absence.
Will the elderly Spurs win their fourth title?
This team isn't exactly feeble: They won 58 games while limiting Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili to fewer minutes than last year. They could have challenged Dallas and Phoenix all season, but that would have worn them out for the postseason run. Duncan is far more healthy now than last year, when his Spurs blew Game 7 to Dallas. San Antonio is the most intriguing team of the playoffs.
Can the Suns win without defending?
This has to be the year: Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa have never been better, and Amarι Stoudemire grows stronger every month. If they don't get past the Spurs and Mavericks this time, will owner Robert Sarver be willing to pay a luxury tax next season? Or will he seek traditional moves to improve the defense while trimming payroll?
Will the Mavericks break through?
No contender was more dominant, deeper or tougher than the Mavs, who established a high level of consistently hard play night after night that recalls the 2002-03 Spurs, the 1999-2000 Lakers and the latter-day Bulls of Jordan. The only thing left for Dirk Nowitzki to prove is that he can lead his team through Games 5, 6 and 7 of the playoffs in May and June. Will his Mavericks feel the pressure -- or will they exert it?
Can the East win the championship?
Detroit and Miami (if everything falls into place) are the two teams with the size and experience capable of knocking off Dallas, San Antonio or Phoenix in the NBA Finals. To do so they must control tempo over seven games, and that's a longshot.
Watch Out For ...
These dangerous teams or players are capable of elevating their games in the playoffs:
LeBron James: Will he build on last year's sensational playoff debut? James is capable of driving the Cavaliers through the wide-open East to the Finals.
Houston Rockets: Yao Ming is potentially the league's best center, McGrady is a dominant scorer and playmaker, and the Rockets led the league in field-goal defense. Because of injuries, they were unable to prove themselves at the highest level during the regular season -- they were just 28-24 in conference and 4-8 against Dallas, Phoenix and San Antonio. If they coalesce during the playoffs, they'll make it a four-team race in the West.
Toronto Raptors: By earning the No. 3 seed, they've avoided Detroit and Miami during the first two rounds. The Raptors should get by New Jersey, and their recent 15-4 sprint as the most impressive Eastern team down the stretch demonstrates that they won't surrender to Cleveland in the second round. The playoff inexperience of Chris Bosh may be offset by the big-game familiarity of Juan Dixon and Rasho Nesterovic as well as Jose Calderon, Anthony Parker and rookie Andrea Bargnani, who have a history of coming up big in the European playoffs.
Jason Kidd: He led the Nets to victory against his nemesis Scott Skiles on Wednesday. Can he will former Raptor Vince Carter to avenge himself against his old team? Yes he can, but that might not be enough to advance.
Kobe Bryant: He is by far the most dangerous individual in these playoffs. His Lakers have been slumping, but Bryant could single-handedly lead the Lakers past Phoenix in the first round.
Best Round 1 Matchups
Don Nelson vs. the Mavericks: Golden State looks like it has the Mavericks' number, but that was a regular-season mirage. The Warriors will make the first round interesting, but they can't knock off the league's dominant side.
Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson vs. San Antonio: They won 10 of their final 11 to surge past the woebegone Lakers, but the individualistic Nuggets are about to be assimilated by the Borg-like Spurs. Resistance is futile.
Jeff Van Gundy vs. Jerry Sloan: Never will you see two more miserable-looking men doing something they love. And doing it better than almost anybody else. The winner wears the bigger frown.
Grant Hill vs. Detroit: Will this postseason homecoming be Hill's farewell? Just the opposite, I predict: It will complete his seven-year Orlando odyssey, and send him off in search of a new twilight career with a championship contender.
Vince Carter vs. Toronto: The criticism of Carter is that he doesn't bring it every night. That might not be a problem in this series.
Biggest Threats to Dallas
By order of the threat they pose:
1. Spurs: They have the requisite blend of defensive/offensive balance, depth, experience and inspiration after losing to Dallas last year.
2. Suns: If Nash can lead Phoenix past San Antonio, then he'll be capable of knocking off the Mavericks.
3. Pistons: Miami can't win in the Finals against Dallas, but Detroit can -- by controlling tempo, executing its half-court offense through Chris Webber and relying on the last-minute shooting of Chauncey Billups.
4. Rockets: Dallas had better kill them off early; the longer the Rockets survive, the more opportunity for them to discover rhythm and confidence. (Utah's defensive impotence -- should the Jazz advance to the second round -- will provide an easier mark for the Mavs.)
5. Warriors: If they steal a close game or two, the Warriors can enervate Dallas and shake its confidence heading into the latter rounds.
Five Useless Pieces of Crucial Information
Over the last five years, the team without home court advantage has won 21 percent of postseason series, making the NBA playoffs far and away the most predictable tournament in pro sports. (Over the same period, road teams have won 60 percent of the baseball playoffs and 36 percent of the NFL playoffs.)
The No. 8 seed is 0-8 since the NBA lengthened the first round to a best-of-seven format in 2002-03.
The NBA champion has been the No. 1 or 2 seed in its conference for the past 11 years; the last underdog champion was No. 6 Houston in 1994-95 during Jordan's abbreviated retirement.
NBA contenders who lack recent playoff success are historically incapable of winning the championship. Earning a ring is at minimum a two-year process, which means there is little chance the Rockets, Bulls, Raptors or Jazz -- whose core of players has yet to win a playoff series -- will suddenly catch fire and sprint to the title. The last group of players to earn the championship a month after winning its first playoff series was the 1976-77 Portland team.
The Pistons and Suns are trying to become the first champion without a 7-footer on the roster since the 1982-83 Philadelphia 76ers, who were led by 6-10 MVP Moses Malone.
Buzzer Beaters
3. On principle I'm sticking with my preseason pick of Phoenix to beat Miami in the Finals. However ...
2. The most likely champions, in order, are Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, Detroit. A title for any other team (including Miami, which is too unsettled entering the playoffs) would require, by NBA standards, a miracle.
1. Last week an Eastern Conference coach tried to convince me that the Spurs will win the whole thing, and he may be right. They may have fooled us all year long. Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Popovich may yet have been the best coach in the league ... again.