It's officially time to break Iraq in three pieces...

[exstatic]

Last week a Colorado energy consultancy firm, IHS, stunned some of Iraq's politicians and oil engineers by declaring that the country's oil reserves were about 215 billion barrels — about double the estimates that have held for Iraq for years. That would make Iraq a giant oil power, second only to Saudi Arabia. If the estimates prove true, Iraq's potential would outstrip its other neighbor Iran, which sits atop about 136 billion barrels of oil. The IHS engineers examined 438 undrilled fields and used new technology to recalculate old reservoirs.

But for Iraqi politicians the more dramatic news might be where the country's unexpected reserves lie, rather than their size. The report says about 100 billion barrels of oil and a large amount of gas lie in the Sunni-dominated Al-Anbar province. Until now, Sunni politicians have feared economic devastation if Iraq divided into a federation or imploded into disparate ethnic states, since the territory dominated by their ethnic group was thought to be the only one without large reserves of oil. (Both the Shi'ite south and Kurdish north have productive fields.) "The Western desert has lain dormant," says Colin Lothian, senior analyst on Middle East energy for Wood Mackenzie, an international energy research and consultancy. "It's not out of the realm of possibility."

Time article (http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1614000,00.html)

It's time to fix Churchill's mistake, and there's no reason not to now. The biggest concern was that one of the 3 groups (the Sunnis) would be left without oil and spiral into poverty. Problem solved. :)

It might be better not to have all that oil under one roof, so to speak, too.

[ChumpDumper]

I predict we'll be seeing alot of proposed maps now. This could actually be seen as a viable alternative for our foreign policy rather than just deciding what degree of a disaster we are willing to leave behind in two years.

[exstatic]

I predict we'll be seeing alot of proposed maps now.
The Exxon/Mobil map, the Conoco map, the BP map...
:lol

[Ocotillo]

Wouldn't that simplify things......

[RandomGuy]

I read some rather interesting papers for my economics class about how greater democracy= disintegration of nations.

Think about that

Russian confederation=poof!

Yugoslavia=poof!

czechloslovakia=poof!

I would predict a loose confederation at best.

The suck thing is that both Iran and Turkey do NOT really want a kurdistan, and that muddies things considerably.

The shia and sunni powers (iran and, well every other muslim nation in the region) will probably be stuck in a proxy war in Iraq for a long time.

[exstatic]

I don't really care what Iran wants, and wouldn't it be delicious revenge to fund a Kurdish insurgency in Iran? Fuck the ayatollas, and rock the casbah.

[mullet]

its like the civil war. the South shoulda won and we'd have less problems now.

[TDMVPDPOY]

best way is to have 3 states and shift every fuckn ethic group in seperate states

1.diesel
2.unleaded
3.leaded

FTW!

[Carrot Top]

not just yet

[sabar]

Yeah, sounds easy, but it's more than oil. For example, if you split it all up along the oil reserves, Kurdistan would have all the good arable land in Iraq, and they already import more food than they grow.

[whottt]

Still pales in comparison to the centuries old competition between the Sunnis and Shias, and the Kurds desire to have no part of either of them...especially the Sunnis.


It was a horrible idea to force them to live together, much as it, was a horrible idea to promise Palestinians and Jews the same land....and shoehorn a bunch of European Jews into the ME in the first place...that's why they call us Imperialists and colonialists....Israel is Europe's last great colony...



It's pretty obvious to me that they(Sunnis/Shias) hate each other more than they hate us...they couldn't unite against us if their soverignty depended on it...if they could, we'd be gone. Religion is that way...especially when it's two fanatical factions.

[Bob Lanier]

Nationalism is a greater evil than violence.

Those who are left alive will eventually learn to get along.

[Nbadan]

With Al-Sadr running his own city-state in Baghdad, the Coalition of the tricked aren't likely to conceed a virtual de-facto Iranian government in Shiia controlled Iraq. it will take decades to bring all these factions together into a cohesive government and convince them that sharing the oil wealth while existing in a loose coalition of one central government, kinda like Yugoslavia, is the only way to go.

[RandomGuy]

I don't really care what Iran wants, and wouldn't it be delicious revenge to fund a Kurdish insurgency in Iran? Fuck the ayatollas, and rock the casbah.

Not really. A Kurdish insurgency in Iran=kurdish insurgency in turkey=regional war=Very Bad Thing.

[RandomGuy]

With Al-Sadr running his own city-state in Baghdad, the Coalition of the tricked aren't likely to conceed a virtual de-facto Iranian government in Shiia controlled Iraq. it will take decades to bring all these factions together into a cohesive government and convince them that sharing the oil wealth while existing in a loose coalition of one central government, kinda like Yugoslavia, is the only way to go.

The Shia in Iraq are Arab, not Persian.

They may have the same religion, but are not quite the same thing when it comes to ethnic identity.

[George Gervin's Afro]

Who said this:


I think for us to get American military personnel involved in a civil war inside Iraq would literally be a QUAGMIRE. Once we got to Bagdhad, what would we do?... I do not think the United States wants to have U.S. military forces accept casualties and accept responsibility of trying to govern Iraq. It MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL



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VP 5 deferrment dick... yes my friends not only is a he flip flopper he's an evil lying bastard... but,but,but dems want to surrender... but,but,but libs want to cut and run.. you war whores make me sick..

[boutons_]

dubya and dickhead busted Iraq in 2003.

There is no Iraq there, only debris, fragments, residue.

The Iraq "govt" is weak and corrupt, the army and police are useless, the infrastructure and nominal institutions are horribly deteriorated, 1000s of middle-class Iraqis would would serve as the foundation of one or mutliple new Iraqs have immigrated as refugees.

Turkey and Iran are ready and threatening to attack an autonomous Kurdish state in former north Iraq.

Iraq is lost, it's not winnable with the resources the US is ready to put in.

The majority of Iraqis and US citizens wants the US out. Majorities of both US chambers have voted to approve withdrawal.

GTFO as soon as possible.

And bet $1000, a sure thing, that dubya/dickhead/rove/rummy/Repugs will blame their failure in Iraq on everybody else.

[rascal]

My prediction is the US gets out shortly after Bush is out of office, then Bush will say the new administration lost the war,which he will always say was winnable.