Plus/Minus Game 10: Spurs 91, Raptors 96

[FromWayDowntown]

The numbers really show the effect of the runs in yesterday's game; it's even more obvious when you look at it in terms of various players' stints on the floor. Barry, for example, was +13 in one stint, but -16 in the next. Duncan had a +18 stint, followed by a -24. Pretty miserable all the way around:

+6 - Brown
+4 - Bowen
+2 - Udrih
+1 - Duncan
EVEN - Rose
-4 - Nesterovic
-5 - Barry
-6 - Horry
-7 - Parker
-16 - Ginobili

Here are the cumulative numbers through 10 games:

+104 - Duncan
+86 - Ginobili
+77 - Bowen
+75 - Parker
+54 - Nesterovic
+17 - Horry
+13 - Rose
+7 - Barry
+2 - Wilks
-1 - Udrih
-8 - Brown
-27 - Massenburg

[SLOVENIAN 8]

TNX!! :king

[timvp]

FWD, thanks again.

This is what happens when Manu plays too many minutes. He starts missing shots and getting blown by on defense. Pop should always keep him around 30 minutes per game. If he does that, he has an all-star. If he doesn't, Manu is worthless in fourth quarters and will end up injured.

[FromWayDowntown]

Good call, timvp. Manu and Duncan were both -24 in the 4th. Not that they were the only ones with bad 4th quarter numbers: by my count here is the 4th Quarter from a plus/minus perspective:

-2 - Brown
-3 - Nesterovic
-3 - Udrih
-8 - Bowen
-15 - Barry
-20 - Horry
-21 - Parker
-24 - Duncan
-24 - Ginobili

[Rick Von Braun]

Hi FWD,

I've noticed some slight differences between your raw +/- numbers and others gathered elsewhere (http://www.82games.com/0405SAS1.HTM).

Individual Player Floor Time statistics



Player Min Net Off Def Net48 W L Win%
Duncan 76% +98 99.0 86.1 12.9 9 1 90.0
Ginobili 64% +90 99.1 85.1 13.9 8 2 80.0
Parker 72% +74 99.3 89.0 10.3 7 3 70.0
Bowen 59% +72 99.4 87.2 12.2 9 1 90.0
Nesterovic 57% +56 97.4 87.6 9.8 6 3 66.7
Horry 22% +17 97.6 90.1 7.6 6 3 66.7
Rose 33% +15 91.1 86.6 4.5 4 5 44.4
Barry 52% +6 92.7 91.5 1.1 5 5 50.0
Wilks 3% 0 66.0 66.0 0.0 1 2 33.3
Udrih 25% -3 86.8 88.0 -1.2 5 4 55.6
Brown 22% -8 89.4 93.0 -3.5 4 6 40.0
Massenburg 10% -27 76.7 102.9 -26.2 1 5 16.7


Legend:
Min = the percentage of the team's total minutes the player was on the floor.
Net = net points (+/-) for the team while the player was on the floor.
Net48 = the team net points per 48 minutes of playing time for the player.
W = number of games a player's team outscored its opponents while he was on the court.
L = number of games a player's team was outscored by its opponents while he was on the court.
Win% = the winning percentage for the player based on Wins versus Losses.
I wonder if there might be a small bug in the program you use to parse the play-by-play from nba.com. http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/images/smilies/smidrunk.gif

[FromWayDowntown]

Actually, Rick, I'm aware of the difference and can account for the variation. I actually cull the numbers manually. One issue that comes up in doing the numbers that way is how to account for a player who enters after a foul but before 1 or both of the free throws have been taken. My solution is to apply a team concept and (rather arbitrarily) say that the substitution does not occur until AFTER the free throws have been taken. For example, say Devin Brown substitutes for Bruce Bowen while Tim Duncan is at the line. Under my accouting rules, any points that Duncan scores are attributed to Bowen for plus/minus purposes, since Bowen was involved in the play (somehow) that resulted in Tim getting to the line. I apply the same rule when an opponent is shooting, since in that example, Bowen was involved (somehow -- even if by just standing there) in the play that resulted in the free throws being awarded. I made that decision last year when I started doing this, because I noticed that players who committed fouls were getting the "benefit" of being off the floor when the free throws resulting from the foul were taken. Somehow, that just doesn't seem to be an accurate way to depict the situation. Since I didn't want to apply the rule in some arbitrary fashion, I devised the concrete rule that I use. Over the course of a season, it might account for a slight difference in the plus or minus direction, but my sense is that it generally evens out as the season progresses.

As your source demonstrates, my methodology DOES offer a different result, but the differences are pretty much negligible. I'm open to suggestion on this, though. If you think my methodology is flawed, I'm amenable to changing it.

[Rick Von Braun]

FWD, thanks again.

This is what happens when Manu plays too many minutes. He starts missing shots and getting blown by on defense. Pop should always keep him around 30 minutes per game. If he does that, he has an all-star. If he doesn't, Manu is worthless in fourth quarters and will end up injured.I actually slightly disagree with that statement. I think Manu's so and so performance has more to do with simply not having his best game. The other games when he played the most minutes are:

35 minutes against the Heat: 35 8-12 5-6 8-10 2 5 7 7 6 1 4 2 29
34 minutes against the Lakers: 34 8-18 1-6 1-2 5 2 7 6 5 1 5 4 18
32 minutes against the Warriors: 32 3-7 2-4 9-12 1 3 4 9 2 1 3 3 17
Hardly horrible performances when playing more than 30 minutes. His defense in the 4th quarter against all the above teams was near flawless in those games.

I do agree that Manu style of play is not best fit to play 40-45 minutes, but I think he is perfectly capable of playing 35 minutes or less.

Pop knows this, and has set up the swingman rotation with Manu leaving at the ~6 minute mark in the 1st half and putting him back at the ~3 minute mark. He puts Manu only the initial ~5 minutes in the 2nd and put him back in the last 2 minutes only when necessary. The 3rd quarter is similar to the 1st, and the 4th quarter varies drastically depending whether it is a blowout game or a close game.

It is mostly the 3rd and 4th quarter dynamics what determines how many minutes Manu plays (between 26 to 37 min for the games played so far).

Pop was forced to leave Manu and Tim vs the Raptors in the 4th because of the dynamics of the game. We were sucking badly, and he left TP, Manu, Barry, Horry, and Tim (what I think he believes is his best closing lineup) to play extended minutes in the 4th.

[timvp]

RVB, none of those games were back-to-back games. To make it even worse, the Raptors game was a third game in four nights.

Those are the times when Manu's minutes should be limited to around 30 per game.