mabber
05-03-2007, 03:26 PM
Analysis: Dirk, Warriors playing better than you thinkBy John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
Archive
The Dallas-Golden State series requires little introduction -- it's been one of the most compelling, entertaining and surprising first-round series in memory. Nonetheless, even a series that gets this much attention has a few less-discussed stories while a couple of major topics hog the discussion.
I took a peek at the numbers and unearthed a few facts from the first five games of the series that may not be getting as much attention as they deserve:
It's not all about Dirk, people. He's been a perfect scapegoat because he's about to be crowned MVP and yet he might not make it out of the first round. The logic tends to go something like:
(A) Dirk Nowitzki can't do anything but score.
(B) Dirk Nowitzki isn't scoring much in this series.
(C) Dirk Nowitzki isn't doing anything.
In reality, he's done plenty of positive things, even before his onslaught at the end of Game 5, and that's why he's had a productive series despite shooting a subpar 42.0 percent. He's averaging 11.6 rebounds per game, he's been big on D (2.0 steals and 1.6 blocks, including a game-saver Monday night), and he's been his usual low-turnover self -- just 11 in five games. By the way: Those rebound, steal and block numbers rank sixth, second and seventh, respectively, among playoff participants.
Overall, Nowitzki's playoff PER isn't as good as his regular-season mark, but it still ranks ninth, right between Chauncey Billups and Kobe Bryant. No, this series hasn't been his finest moment, but it hasn't been the disaster some would have you believe either. Which gets us to our next point.
What the heck happened to Dallas' guards? All the focus on Nowitzki has taken the laser off Dallas' backcourt. While Devin Harris has played effectively and was huge in the fourth quarter of Game 5, the two veterans who get the bulk of the minutes -- Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse -- have struggled.
Terry hasn't connected from outside (8-for-26 on 3-pointers), which is one reason the doubles on Dirk have been so effective, but a bigger crime has been Terry's inability to get Dallas into its offense. Defensive pressure from Baron Davis has resulted in Dallas' often taking an eternity to run a play, often leading to either shot-clock violations or last-ditch heaves.
Terry is averaging only 3.6 assists per game, compared to his season total of 5.2, as he's been unable to throw an entry pass that takes advantage of the fronting on Nowitzki. His 14.10 playoff PER is well short of his 18.97 regular-season total; we'd expect it to go down a little since the quality of the competition has increased, but not this much.
Then there's Stackhouse. Effectively the Mavs' fifth starter since he plays so many minutes off the bench, Stackhouse's inability to punish Golden State with his drives has been far more bewildering than Nowitzki's slump.
He's shooting 31.4 percent for the series, and if you take away the 3-pointer he accidentally banked in at the end of Game 4, he has as many turnovers as field goals. He's getting to the free-throw line at least, so he's still averaging double figures for the series, but his playoff PER of 12.50 is far short of his 16.88 regular-season mark.
Offensive boards are keeping Dallas alive. Perhaps this isn't surprising considering the Mavs are using two 7-footers against a team that plays guys like 6-foot-7 Matt Barnes and 6-foot-9 Al Harrington at center for big chunks of the game. The Mavs are rebounding 34.3 percent of their misses (the league average is 26.8 percent), saving nearly four possessions per game.
Their rebound margin has been especially important because of all the bricks they're putting up. Only Utah has more missed field-goal attempts in the playoffs than the Mavs, who are shooting 43.3 percent for the series. They also have more missed free throws than all but three teams, and some of those have ended up staying in Dallas' hands as well -- such as the crucial miss by Josh Howard with 20 seconds left in Game 5 that Barnes couldn't handle.
Ironically, the better Dallas plays, the more this advantage diminishes, because it is dependent on Dallas' missing a shot in the first place. Also, it may explain why the Mavs are having so much trouble in transition defense -- they might be better off sending fewer guys to the glass.
The Warriors might want to take fewer 3s. Yes, Golden State was on fire from beyond the arc on Tuesday. But for the series as a whole, the Warriors are hitting 34.5 percent from downtown -- hardly an overwhelming figure.
In fact, they've been even more effective when they step in closer. They're shooting a scalding 52.7 percent on 2-point attempts and averaging a very strong .370 free throw attempts per field-goal attempt, nearly all of which have come from their forays inside the arc.
Yet Golden State is the runaway leader in playoff 3-point attempts, with more than a third of its shots coming from out there (35.2 percent to be exact). The league average is 23.5 percent, and this has been a long-running trend with Golden State: One of the biggest weaknesses of Davis and Jason Richardson is their tendency to get 3-point happy and launch away from outside rather than using their athleticism to score off the dribble.
Golden State is playing without two starters. Well, technically they're there -- but it's hard to claim that Monta Ellis and Harrington have shown up for this series. Two of Golden State's better players during the regular season, both have been basket cases in the playoffs and have seen little of the court during crunch time.
Ellis, who was voted the league's Most Improved Player, may be the playoffs' Most Disappointing Player -- he's shooting 39.5 percent on the series, has 11 turnovers against six assists and hasn't made a 3-pointer. His struggles have worsened as the series has worn on, with a grand total of four points in Games 4 and 5. Amazingly, he's played 28.5 minutes per game thus far -- but expect Nellie to have a quicker hook if he starts slowly tonight.
Ellis' playoff PER of 6.29 is the second-worst on the team. The reason it's not the absolute worst is because of Harrington (PER 4.75), who is shooting 25.8 percent and hasn't scored more than seven points in any game this series.
Harrington shot 43.3 percent on 3-pointers during the season but hasn't made one in the playoffs, and he seems to be going one-on-one too much rather than letting the game come to him. As a result, he's lost his starting gig to Andris Biedrins. Harrington did shoot 3-for-4 in Game 5, an encouraging sign, but he also made three turnovers in 15 minutes. That's why Barnes was masquerading as a center in crunch time, and why he might again tonight.
Yet despite the struggles of those two...
Golden State has been better. We've played five games now, and statistically the Warriors are the ones who look like the 67-win juggernaut. Their Offensive Efficiency ranks fourth among playoff teams, with the only three clubs ahead of them being the three with joke first-round matchups (Detroit, Cleveland and Phoenix). They rank first in playoff true shooting percentage at 56.6, they're shooting 46.3 percent to Dallas' 43.3 percent and they've outscored the Mavs by 15 points over the first five games despite playing three of them on the road.
In the wake of the Game 5 meltdown, it's important to keep this in mind. Yes, it appeared Dallas figured some things out as far as double-teaming Davis, attacking off the dribble with Harris, and using Austin Croshere off the bench instead of offensively inert types like Devean George and Greg Buckner. But Golden State still has the upper hand here.
Along those lines, there was an interesting quote in today's Fort Worth Star-Telegram from Devean George. "You also expect eventually teams aren't going to play so far over their heads," said George. "We have to help them do that."
That seems to be the conventional wisdom on this series -- that Golden State is playing well beyond its normal abilities and will at some point come back to earth. But as I mentioned in the piece I wrote after Game 1, that's simply not true. The Warriors have been doing gangbusters ever since Davis came back to the lineup on March 7.
I'm not sure why we'd expect them to stop now. And since they have two shots at knocking off the Mavs, the odds still favor the Warriors.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
ESPN Insider
Archive
The Dallas-Golden State series requires little introduction -- it's been one of the most compelling, entertaining and surprising first-round series in memory. Nonetheless, even a series that gets this much attention has a few less-discussed stories while a couple of major topics hog the discussion.
I took a peek at the numbers and unearthed a few facts from the first five games of the series that may not be getting as much attention as they deserve:
It's not all about Dirk, people. He's been a perfect scapegoat because he's about to be crowned MVP and yet he might not make it out of the first round. The logic tends to go something like:
(A) Dirk Nowitzki can't do anything but score.
(B) Dirk Nowitzki isn't scoring much in this series.
(C) Dirk Nowitzki isn't doing anything.
In reality, he's done plenty of positive things, even before his onslaught at the end of Game 5, and that's why he's had a productive series despite shooting a subpar 42.0 percent. He's averaging 11.6 rebounds per game, he's been big on D (2.0 steals and 1.6 blocks, including a game-saver Monday night), and he's been his usual low-turnover self -- just 11 in five games. By the way: Those rebound, steal and block numbers rank sixth, second and seventh, respectively, among playoff participants.
Overall, Nowitzki's playoff PER isn't as good as his regular-season mark, but it still ranks ninth, right between Chauncey Billups and Kobe Bryant. No, this series hasn't been his finest moment, but it hasn't been the disaster some would have you believe either. Which gets us to our next point.
What the heck happened to Dallas' guards? All the focus on Nowitzki has taken the laser off Dallas' backcourt. While Devin Harris has played effectively and was huge in the fourth quarter of Game 5, the two veterans who get the bulk of the minutes -- Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse -- have struggled.
Terry hasn't connected from outside (8-for-26 on 3-pointers), which is one reason the doubles on Dirk have been so effective, but a bigger crime has been Terry's inability to get Dallas into its offense. Defensive pressure from Baron Davis has resulted in Dallas' often taking an eternity to run a play, often leading to either shot-clock violations or last-ditch heaves.
Terry is averaging only 3.6 assists per game, compared to his season total of 5.2, as he's been unable to throw an entry pass that takes advantage of the fronting on Nowitzki. His 14.10 playoff PER is well short of his 18.97 regular-season total; we'd expect it to go down a little since the quality of the competition has increased, but not this much.
Then there's Stackhouse. Effectively the Mavs' fifth starter since he plays so many minutes off the bench, Stackhouse's inability to punish Golden State with his drives has been far more bewildering than Nowitzki's slump.
He's shooting 31.4 percent for the series, and if you take away the 3-pointer he accidentally banked in at the end of Game 4, he has as many turnovers as field goals. He's getting to the free-throw line at least, so he's still averaging double figures for the series, but his playoff PER of 12.50 is far short of his 16.88 regular-season mark.
Offensive boards are keeping Dallas alive. Perhaps this isn't surprising considering the Mavs are using two 7-footers against a team that plays guys like 6-foot-7 Matt Barnes and 6-foot-9 Al Harrington at center for big chunks of the game. The Mavs are rebounding 34.3 percent of their misses (the league average is 26.8 percent), saving nearly four possessions per game.
Their rebound margin has been especially important because of all the bricks they're putting up. Only Utah has more missed field-goal attempts in the playoffs than the Mavs, who are shooting 43.3 percent for the series. They also have more missed free throws than all but three teams, and some of those have ended up staying in Dallas' hands as well -- such as the crucial miss by Josh Howard with 20 seconds left in Game 5 that Barnes couldn't handle.
Ironically, the better Dallas plays, the more this advantage diminishes, because it is dependent on Dallas' missing a shot in the first place. Also, it may explain why the Mavs are having so much trouble in transition defense -- they might be better off sending fewer guys to the glass.
The Warriors might want to take fewer 3s. Yes, Golden State was on fire from beyond the arc on Tuesday. But for the series as a whole, the Warriors are hitting 34.5 percent from downtown -- hardly an overwhelming figure.
In fact, they've been even more effective when they step in closer. They're shooting a scalding 52.7 percent on 2-point attempts and averaging a very strong .370 free throw attempts per field-goal attempt, nearly all of which have come from their forays inside the arc.
Yet Golden State is the runaway leader in playoff 3-point attempts, with more than a third of its shots coming from out there (35.2 percent to be exact). The league average is 23.5 percent, and this has been a long-running trend with Golden State: One of the biggest weaknesses of Davis and Jason Richardson is their tendency to get 3-point happy and launch away from outside rather than using their athleticism to score off the dribble.
Golden State is playing without two starters. Well, technically they're there -- but it's hard to claim that Monta Ellis and Harrington have shown up for this series. Two of Golden State's better players during the regular season, both have been basket cases in the playoffs and have seen little of the court during crunch time.
Ellis, who was voted the league's Most Improved Player, may be the playoffs' Most Disappointing Player -- he's shooting 39.5 percent on the series, has 11 turnovers against six assists and hasn't made a 3-pointer. His struggles have worsened as the series has worn on, with a grand total of four points in Games 4 and 5. Amazingly, he's played 28.5 minutes per game thus far -- but expect Nellie to have a quicker hook if he starts slowly tonight.
Ellis' playoff PER of 6.29 is the second-worst on the team. The reason it's not the absolute worst is because of Harrington (PER 4.75), who is shooting 25.8 percent and hasn't scored more than seven points in any game this series.
Harrington shot 43.3 percent on 3-pointers during the season but hasn't made one in the playoffs, and he seems to be going one-on-one too much rather than letting the game come to him. As a result, he's lost his starting gig to Andris Biedrins. Harrington did shoot 3-for-4 in Game 5, an encouraging sign, but he also made three turnovers in 15 minutes. That's why Barnes was masquerading as a center in crunch time, and why he might again tonight.
Yet despite the struggles of those two...
Golden State has been better. We've played five games now, and statistically the Warriors are the ones who look like the 67-win juggernaut. Their Offensive Efficiency ranks fourth among playoff teams, with the only three clubs ahead of them being the three with joke first-round matchups (Detroit, Cleveland and Phoenix). They rank first in playoff true shooting percentage at 56.6, they're shooting 46.3 percent to Dallas' 43.3 percent and they've outscored the Mavs by 15 points over the first five games despite playing three of them on the road.
In the wake of the Game 5 meltdown, it's important to keep this in mind. Yes, it appeared Dallas figured some things out as far as double-teaming Davis, attacking off the dribble with Harris, and using Austin Croshere off the bench instead of offensively inert types like Devean George and Greg Buckner. But Golden State still has the upper hand here.
Along those lines, there was an interesting quote in today's Fort Worth Star-Telegram from Devean George. "You also expect eventually teams aren't going to play so far over their heads," said George. "We have to help them do that."
That seems to be the conventional wisdom on this series -- that Golden State is playing well beyond its normal abilities and will at some point come back to earth. But as I mentioned in the piece I wrote after Game 1, that's simply not true. The Warriors have been doing gangbusters ever since Davis came back to the lineup on March 7.
I'm not sure why we'd expect them to stop now. And since they have two shots at knocking off the Mavs, the odds still favor the Warriors.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.