flipcritic
05-04-2007, 08:34 PM
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/basketball/nba/specials/playoffs/2007/05/04/scouts.take.suns.spurs/index.html
SI.com's Ian Thomsen interviewed an NBA advance scout to break down the Suns-Spurs matchup.
"This has got to be the sexiest series in the playoffs right now. I don't think there will be a better matchup in the entire postseason.
"You couldn't put two more polar-opposite teams on the same floor. Phoenix is the team that wants to get up and down, take lots of threes and perimeter shots. San Antonio wants to defend the rim and the paint and prevent easy baskets, and then come down and grind it out and execute and beat you down.
"Do the Suns have a chance? Without a doubt.
"Since February, I've felt that San Antonio was the best team in the league. They weren't the dominating team, but they looked like the the team that was playing the best and built in the best way to succeed.
"But if anybody's going to trip them up, it's Phoenix. Though it's become popular to knock their style and question whether they can win playing that way in the playoffs, you have to say that it's worked for them very, very well.
"The key for the Suns is that they didn't have Amaré Stoudemire last year. With a healthy Stoudemire, let's face it, that's a different team.
"People will be focusing on Steve Nash and Tony Parker, or Manu Ginobili and Shawn Marion. But I think the Stoudemire-Tim Duncan matchup is going to decide this series. It's not like they're going to be guarding each other all the time, but the reality is that the one who outplays the other is going to win the series for his team.
"My hunch is that you're going to see a little bit of that incremental changing of the guard, and that Stoudemire is going to show he's starting to regain some of that explosiveness and getting back to where he was two seasons ago. In order for Phoenix to win, that's what is going to have to happen. I'm not saying that Amaré is ready for this, but if they're going to win the series, he's going to have to burst on the scene to the point where people say that he's all the way back. Not only that, but say that Stoudemire has three or four of those 30-point, 15-rebound nights where he outclasses Tim athletically, that's going to be the scenario in which Phoenix wins.
"I don't think Amaré is very far behind Tim skillwise. I watched Amaré step out in the series with the Lakers, and he was making shots from the top of the key that were routine, effortless jumpers for him. He's been perceived as a guy who relied on athleticism -- but he's always been skilled, because otherwise he couldn't be as good as he is. I believe Amaré is as skilled as Tim; the difference is he's not nearly as fundamentally sound as Tim. If his athleticism is back, it wouldn't shock me to see Amaré play toe-to-toe with Tim and maybe even see him eclipse Tim in this series.
"The other difference maker for Phoenix is Leandro Barbosa, who is a much better player than he was a year ago. He's a force, a guy who can get them 30 on any night. If Raja Bell or Shawn Marion or Boris Diaw don't have it going, they can put Barbosa in the game and they may actually gain a notch or two.
"Both teams are capable of playing whatever style they need to win. San Antonio can play a fast-paced game and be successful at it. Phoenix will be less successful slowing it down, but in stretches they won't be outclassed playing that way. The Suns couldn't have won all of these games without being able to guard anybody at all. Raja Bell is a heck of a defender for them; he's right up there with Bruce Bowen in my book.
"If you look at the moves San Antonio made this offseason, and their rationale for not re-signing Nazr Mohammed and trading Rasho Nesterovic, it's because they were purposely trying to get smaller and quicker. It's just like when Shaq moved to the West -- San Antonio tried to get bigger to combat him. But last summer San Antonio looked around, and other than Yao Ming, what other bigs did they have to worry about in the West? The teams they had to match up against were Dallas, where the big matchup is Dirk Nowitzki, and Phoenix, where the matchup is with Stoudemire.
"That's why San Antonio made an effort to get quicker on the front line, so they got rid of their big plodding guys and went to more mobile big men like Fabricio Oberto and Francisco Elson, who plays center with a thinner power-forward type build. Basically, San Antonio has made moves to match up with Phoenix and Dallas. They've built their team for this series and this matchup, and it's going to be interesting to see whether or not the moves have paid off.
"The other question for the Spurs is whether they're too old. The only reasonable answer is that we'll know after this series. If they lose, then we'll be saying that the Spurs had their window and now they must get younger and more athletic around Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, who is the only one who hasn't leveled off and who has a chance to get better.
"For the Spurs to win, they need Duncan to be Duncan. He has got to be the best big man in the series and outplay Stoudemire on both ends. Stoudemire will probably have to guard Duncan most of the time, but at the other end Oberto or Elson will probably spend a lot of time defending Stoudemire. Nonetheless, in this series Duncan has got to be the MVP he's been historically. If Stoudemire outplays him, then San Antonio's in trouble.
"Phoenix is younger, more athletic and quicker -- and those are big advantages. What levels the court is that San Antonio is superior at the defensive end, and San Antonio has the advantage in terms of winning playoff experience. But the disparity between these teams has narrowed. If Phoenix wins the series, I'm not going to be blown or away; we'll just be saying that Amaré Stoudemire came of age.
Scout's pick: "San Antonio wins in seven. This will be one of those series for the ages, where every game bears watching."
SI.com's Ian Thomsen interviewed an NBA advance scout to break down the Suns-Spurs matchup.
"This has got to be the sexiest series in the playoffs right now. I don't think there will be a better matchup in the entire postseason.
"You couldn't put two more polar-opposite teams on the same floor. Phoenix is the team that wants to get up and down, take lots of threes and perimeter shots. San Antonio wants to defend the rim and the paint and prevent easy baskets, and then come down and grind it out and execute and beat you down.
"Do the Suns have a chance? Without a doubt.
"Since February, I've felt that San Antonio was the best team in the league. They weren't the dominating team, but they looked like the the team that was playing the best and built in the best way to succeed.
"But if anybody's going to trip them up, it's Phoenix. Though it's become popular to knock their style and question whether they can win playing that way in the playoffs, you have to say that it's worked for them very, very well.
"The key for the Suns is that they didn't have Amaré Stoudemire last year. With a healthy Stoudemire, let's face it, that's a different team.
"People will be focusing on Steve Nash and Tony Parker, or Manu Ginobili and Shawn Marion. But I think the Stoudemire-Tim Duncan matchup is going to decide this series. It's not like they're going to be guarding each other all the time, but the reality is that the one who outplays the other is going to win the series for his team.
"My hunch is that you're going to see a little bit of that incremental changing of the guard, and that Stoudemire is going to show he's starting to regain some of that explosiveness and getting back to where he was two seasons ago. In order for Phoenix to win, that's what is going to have to happen. I'm not saying that Amaré is ready for this, but if they're going to win the series, he's going to have to burst on the scene to the point where people say that he's all the way back. Not only that, but say that Stoudemire has three or four of those 30-point, 15-rebound nights where he outclasses Tim athletically, that's going to be the scenario in which Phoenix wins.
"I don't think Amaré is very far behind Tim skillwise. I watched Amaré step out in the series with the Lakers, and he was making shots from the top of the key that were routine, effortless jumpers for him. He's been perceived as a guy who relied on athleticism -- but he's always been skilled, because otherwise he couldn't be as good as he is. I believe Amaré is as skilled as Tim; the difference is he's not nearly as fundamentally sound as Tim. If his athleticism is back, it wouldn't shock me to see Amaré play toe-to-toe with Tim and maybe even see him eclipse Tim in this series.
"The other difference maker for Phoenix is Leandro Barbosa, who is a much better player than he was a year ago. He's a force, a guy who can get them 30 on any night. If Raja Bell or Shawn Marion or Boris Diaw don't have it going, they can put Barbosa in the game and they may actually gain a notch or two.
"Both teams are capable of playing whatever style they need to win. San Antonio can play a fast-paced game and be successful at it. Phoenix will be less successful slowing it down, but in stretches they won't be outclassed playing that way. The Suns couldn't have won all of these games without being able to guard anybody at all. Raja Bell is a heck of a defender for them; he's right up there with Bruce Bowen in my book.
"If you look at the moves San Antonio made this offseason, and their rationale for not re-signing Nazr Mohammed and trading Rasho Nesterovic, it's because they were purposely trying to get smaller and quicker. It's just like when Shaq moved to the West -- San Antonio tried to get bigger to combat him. But last summer San Antonio looked around, and other than Yao Ming, what other bigs did they have to worry about in the West? The teams they had to match up against were Dallas, where the big matchup is Dirk Nowitzki, and Phoenix, where the matchup is with Stoudemire.
"That's why San Antonio made an effort to get quicker on the front line, so they got rid of their big plodding guys and went to more mobile big men like Fabricio Oberto and Francisco Elson, who plays center with a thinner power-forward type build. Basically, San Antonio has made moves to match up with Phoenix and Dallas. They've built their team for this series and this matchup, and it's going to be interesting to see whether or not the moves have paid off.
"The other question for the Spurs is whether they're too old. The only reasonable answer is that we'll know after this series. If they lose, then we'll be saying that the Spurs had their window and now they must get younger and more athletic around Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, who is the only one who hasn't leveled off and who has a chance to get better.
"For the Spurs to win, they need Duncan to be Duncan. He has got to be the best big man in the series and outplay Stoudemire on both ends. Stoudemire will probably have to guard Duncan most of the time, but at the other end Oberto or Elson will probably spend a lot of time defending Stoudemire. Nonetheless, in this series Duncan has got to be the MVP he's been historically. If Stoudemire outplays him, then San Antonio's in trouble.
"Phoenix is younger, more athletic and quicker -- and those are big advantages. What levels the court is that San Antonio is superior at the defensive end, and San Antonio has the advantage in terms of winning playoff experience. But the disparity between these teams has narrowed. If Phoenix wins the series, I'm not going to be blown or away; we'll just be saying that Amaré Stoudemire came of age.
Scout's pick: "San Antonio wins in seven. This will be one of those series for the ages, where every game bears watching."