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td4mvp3
05-05-2007, 11:03 AM
why does vegas have us as underdogs when every analyst i come across picks the spurs (espn's truehoop has a nifty contest between its stats experts, and they all side with the spurs)?
exstatic
05-05-2007, 11:08 AM
One more time. :dizzy

Vegas lines have nothing to do with predicted outcomes, and everything to do with the betting action. If one side is not getting enough bets, they change the odds.
mabber
05-05-2007, 11:12 AM
why does vegas have us as underdogs when every analyst i come across picks the spurs (espn's truehoop has a nifty contest between its stats experts, and they all side with the spurs)?

Because Vegas wants even money on both sides (so they're guaranteed their 10% vig) and the casual bettor doesn't know anymore about the teams other than the Suns have the HCA. Plus, a lot of the money being bet will come from people coming into Vegas from California (majority of Vegas gamblers come in from California). Bottom line...Vegas is anticipating more money being bet on the Suns so they give the Spurs odds to entice people to bet on them to even the money bet out.

It's a common misunderstanding that Vegas makes odds based on who they think is going to win. They don't care about that at all. They base their odds on trying to get even money bet on both sides.
mabber
05-05-2007, 11:13 AM
One more time. :dizzy

Vegas lines have nothing to do with predicted outcomes, and everything to do with the betting action. If one side is not getting enough bets, they change the odds.

You explained that much better than I :lol
The_Game
05-05-2007, 11:36 AM
actually quite a few on ESPN picked the suns over spurs. on the website they are picking spurs but on TV most picked suns.

it's an evenly matched series.
TDMVPDPOY
05-05-2007, 11:55 AM
nobody takes expn serious anyway
Horry For 3!
05-05-2007, 11:58 AM
Steve Kerr picked the Suns in 7 lol
DarrinS
05-05-2007, 11:58 AM
homecourt?
bonesinaz
05-05-2007, 02:25 PM
Steve Kerr picked the Suns in 7 lol

I just listened to a preview he did online. I thought he gave the edge to SA.
td4mvp21
05-05-2007, 02:29 PM
I would say we are the underdogs. The past does not matter. Suns have the better record and homecourt advantage. That = underdogs for Spurs. Just because analysists pick the Spurs doesn't mean they will win. A lot of times, their opinions are shit because they don't keep up with teams like hardcore fans do. They look at boxscores and highlights and stretches of games.
PhxDog
05-05-2007, 02:35 PM
How many of those analysts would (or should) put ten cents behind their opinions?
bonesinaz
05-05-2007, 02:36 PM
I just listened to a preview he did online. I thought he gave the edge to SA.

OK, he gives the edge to SA halfway through the segment, then he changes his mind at the end and says 'Nash will breakthough' and Suns will win. Nice way of placating everyone.

I missed it the first time because it was all SA at first, and I had a baby on my lap.
bonesinaz
05-05-2007, 02:38 PM
I would say we are the underdogs. The past does not matter. Suns have the better record and homecourt advantage. That = underdogs for Spurs. Just because analysists pick the Spurs doesn't mean they will win. A lot of times, their opinions are shit because they don't keep up with teams like hardcore fans do. They look at boxscores and highlights and stretches of games.

I disagree, the past matters to some degree. The Spurs are in the Suns' heads.