Realistically, what are our chances to win game 5?

[Amuseddaysleeper]

assuming amare does NOT get suspended.


as marc stein said "if there ever was such thing as a team having the lead with the series at 2-2, the Suns might have it"


Game 4 might have cost us the entire series

[sabar]

Obviously, it's pretty much must-win for both teams. I don't like our chances at all, and we've been killed when the other team gets a suspension. It's a bad outlook no matter what, Spurs have to go uphill no matter what happens.

[Budkin]

If Amare is not suspended? I say 50-50. Yes the Suns will have confidence but the Spurs will have an angry Tim Duncan to counter. IMO it could go either way. One thing I'm sure of though is that the winner of Game 5 wins the series.

[nkdlunch]

realistically we are still the favorites. we controlled most of the series. we really choked last night. But Dallas choked for 2 games when we played them last year and they still came up on top.

Spurs in 6.

[atxrocker]

not good. not good at all, my friends.

[Soul_Patch]

I predict whoever wins 4 games first will win the series.



i just feel it.

[Budkin]

Obviously, it's pretty much must-win for both teams. I don't like our chances at all, and we've been killed when the other team gets a suspension. It's a bad outlook no matter what, Spurs have to go uphill no matter what happens.

When were we killed when the other team got a suspension? We won Game 2 against the Kings last year and Game 6 against the Mavs after the Terry suspension. What games are you referring to?

[lefty]

I expect Michael Finley to have a huge game ; remember last year's game 6 @ Dallas ? he was booed everytime he had the ball, but he was on fire.

[GrandeDavid]

I think the Spurs have a decent chance. It'll probably resemble last night's game, but hopefully the Spurs can hit their shots late and keep Duncan on the floor the entire fourth. Just need breaks! I do believe that the Spurs will play their asses off tomorrow night and will not get flustered by Phoenix's crowd. It should be an incredible game.

[atxrocker]

we controlled most of the series.



really? how so? your wins were close, single digit wins and you have a 20 pt loss and a devestating loss from last night. not exactly "controlling" anything if you ask me.

[anonymous source]

i believe we will win. i feel like last years loss to dallas is really going to motivate us to not let another chance slip away.

[Jimcs50]

No ifs about it.

Amare will be suspended...end of discussion.

[ponky]

i'd say 50-50 because spurs don't usually get fazed by opposing team's crowds, in fact, they might play better with more noise considering that the spurs crowd tends to be not quite as raucous but then again that crowd will be nutz and suns play well at home too...if amare is out, i'd still say 50-50 but the x factor will be marion who has had really big games without amare in the lineup.

[01Snake]

Spurs win next 2.

[mabber]

When were we killed when the other team got a suspension? We won Game 2 against the Kings last year and Game 6 against the Mavs after the Terry suspension. What games are you referring to?

I was wondering the same thing.

[nkdlunch]

really? how so? your wins were close, single digit wins and you have a 20 pt loss and a devestating loss from last night. not exactly "controlling" anything if you ask me.

I suggest you watch the games, then post.

We controlled most of game 1. we controlled the first half of game 2. we controlled half of game 3. we controlled most of game 4.

[lefty]

Finley will silence their crowd ; he'll have a great game

[MadDog73]

Realistically? 100%.

What can I say, I'm optimistic.

[GrandeDavid]

Manu will make a huge difference tomorrow as well.

[Oh, Gee!!]

40%

[Trifecta]

I think the Spurs have a good chance!

Pops needs to let the starters play and quit "baby-ing" their minutes.

The Spurs need to close out each quarter strong.

The bench better show up like never before -- I hope Manu, Barry and Finley can find their groove!

I say Spurs win by 5

[DarrinS]

According to my calculations, they have a 75.39378291% chance of winning.

[boutons_]

Yes, must win for both teams, Spurs winning Game5, then bringing it back to SA is very dangerous for Suns. Suns winning Game5, gives them 2 more games to get 1, very dangerous for Spurs.

As history shows, it sure looks like the winner of Game5 will win the series.

[Findog]

Keep in mind that three of the four games have been halfcourt, grind it out affairs that the Spurs want. You guys have controlled the tempo for the most part, controlled the boards, etc. You had Game Four locked up until Duncan went out with his fifth foul. From that point on, it was pretty much all Phoenix. Pop should've just left him in there until fouling out.

[atxrocker]

I suggest you watch the games, then post.

We controlled most of game 1. we controlled the first half of game 2. we controlled half of game 3. we controlled most of game 4.


i guess "controlling" doesn't amount to winning then. so its irrelevant. i'd give you guys a 15 % chance of winning if amare is playing. that's being generous since i really think that the suns are gonna close this series out.

[sabar]

When were we killed when the other team got a suspension? We won Game 2 against the Kings last year and Game 6 against the Mavs after the Terry suspension. What games are you referring to?We needed OT to win on the Kings and on the games after number 2 they beat us. We barely eeked out a win on the Mavs too.

Point being, when down a big star, we have not capitalized in the past. The games were closer than they should have been and we were too close to losing them. Other people have stepped up. People said we'd win by 20 with no Artest and Terry, look what happened, almost lost.

[Rummpd]

A Kings fan predicting a soft, non-defensive team will win a series - how consistent with their own team over the years!

[Testing]

Only consolation you have is that weirdly enough, this season's Spurs are about 5 times better than they are at home. Saquandering big leads at home was a trend for them this season. On the road they appear to be more focused for 48 minutes.

[Findog]

i guess "controlling" doesn't amount to winning then. so its irrelevant. i'd give you guys a 15 % chance of winning if amare is playing. that's being generous since i really think that the suns are gonna close this series out.

I'd say it's relevant that three of the four games have been halfcourt games and the Suns haven't been able to consistently get the tempo they want. They won last night because of Duncan's fifth foul. If he's in there, or not tentative because he's trying to stay on the court, the Spurs close it out.

[GrandeDavid]

since i really think that the suns are gonna close this series out.

...with two straight losses.

I like the random 15% number. :rolleyes

[timvp]

I'll answer when my cup has filled back up.

[ducks]

I think the refs will call ticky tack fouls next game
that favors the spurs
they can not stop duncan

[Stargazer]

On the question of who has controlled the series, SA has "won" -- i.e., scored more -- in 8 of the 16 quarters played so far, the Suns have "won" 7, and one quarter was a push. Almost as even as you can get. By game, by quarter:

Game 1
Q1 - Spurs
Q2 - Suns
Q3 - Spurs
Q4 - Spurs

Game 2
Q1 - Spurs
Q2 - Suns
Q3 - Push
Q4 - Suns

Game 3
Q1 - Suns
Q2 - Spurs
Q3 - Spurs
Q4 - Suns

Game 4
Q1 - Suns
Q2 - Spurs
Q3 - Spurs
Q4 - Suns

This has the potential to be classic, and both teams and their fans are lucky to have such a formidable opponent to match up against.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I'll answer when my cup has filled back up.

:lmao




I'm very curious to hear what TD and Horry have to say as well as to see what the mental state of the team is right now.


Manu says the loss might encourage them to now play the full 48 minutes but considering he's only shown up once this series I'm not exactly holding my breath in hopes of a repeat game 3 performance.

It seemed like Duncan had the expression of the .4 debacle after the game and I hope the Spurs can do what the Pistons did in 2005 after a heartbreaking loss and heading out on the road - focus and win


even though they lost game 7 in SA, at least in our case we can head back home after game 5

If Amare isn't suspended I think the Spurs would be pretty big underdogs in game 5.

[SAGambler]

I don't know why our chances to win game 5 wouldn't be just as good as our chances were to win games 1, 2, 3 and 4.

So since we have won 50% of the games and Phoenix has won 50% of the games, I would guess our chances are about 50/50.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I don't know why our chances to win game 5 wouldn't be just as good as our chances were to win games 1, 2, 3 and 4.

So since we have won 50% of the games and Phoenix has won 50% of the games, I would guess our chances are about 50/50.


yeah but to lose the way we did, and to go on the road where phoenix is more fired up than ever thanks to horry.......i don't like it one bit

[GrandeDavid]

I think the refs will call ticky tack fouls next game
that favors the spurs
they can not stop duncan

Yeah, but they'll also call the same ticky tack fouls on Duncan as well!

[Spurs Brazil]

I believe

Spurs in 6

[T Park]

stoudamire and diaw play? blow out for the suns

if they are gone? Spurs eek out a win.

[ducks]

the double teaming of duncan confused him
spurs will be prepared for it

[Findog]

stoudamire and diaw play? blow out for the suns

if they are gone? Spurs eek out a win.

Man, you guys are so hard on your team. Assuming there isn't a boatload of suspensions, Spurs take this.

[Walton Buys Off Me]

Suns will win by 15

We had our chance, we blew it. I just don't have enough faith in the Spurs this year to bounce back. Call me a bad fan or whatever but my gut tells me we're done. Momentum is so important in basketball and they have totally seized it heading back home.

I hope to hell I'm wrong.

[T Park]

nothing like capping off a playoff loss is the not suprising return of the "supposed" fan.

[duncan228]

I hope to hell I'm wrong.

Me too.

[itzsoweezee]

spurs need to come out with energy and not let the suns get an early lead. spurs need to get that killer instinct. when they've got the lead, they really need to ram it down the suns' throats. popovich needs to play manu with oberto. they play well together. but i think the spurs have a great shot. just continue doing what they've been doing, taking it at amare and getting him in foul trouble. let duncan take the scoring load. and hit the threes when they're available.

[sunsbum]

realistically we are still the favorites. we controlled most of the series. we really choked last night. But Dallas choked for 2 games when we played them last year and they still came up on top.

Spurs in 6.

didnt you call spurs in 4 before the series started? im loving watching that number climb every 2 days or so.

[SAGambler]

Suns will win by 15

We had our chance, we blew it. I just don't have enough faith in the Spurs this year to bounce back. Call me a bad fan or whatever but my gut tells me we're done. Momentum is so important in basketball and they have totally seized it heading back home.

I hope to hell I'm wrong.

But remember, Old Mo is a fickle character. He can swing back just as fast as he swung the other way.

Gotta look at it positive. Spurs play as good if not better on the road than at home.

They are probably looking at this as a "must win" type game.

They won't blow a big lead again.

I actually look for them to snatch HCA back tomorrow.

Then finish is up back here.

[ducks]

I thought this series would go 6 from the get go
I did think spurs would win last night and lose wed

spurs play better on the road except for manu in playoffs
spurs win by 10

[Findog]

San Antonio has controlled the tempo in this series and played the halfcourt game they've wanted. They only lost last night because of Duncan's fifth foul. That's when the Suns made their run. For three and a half quarters the game unfolded the way San Antonio wanted it to. Spurs in 6, assuming both squads are at full strength.

[nkdlunch]

didnt you call spurs in 4 before the series started? im loving watching that number climb every 2 days or so.

no I didn't I called Spurs in 6 from before series started. these were my round 2 predictions:

Bulls in 6 (oops)
Nets in 6 (oops)

Jazz in 5
Spurs in 6

[Mr. Body]

I'll take the Spurs. They're still the better team, in my mind, and only didn't show up for one game - Game Two, when they did their usual crap game they do in every competitive series. They just choked yesterday.

But we should all remember this team is two years removed from their last championship and isn't the same team, and last night places some doubt that they don't have the toughness they used to have.

[pad300]

San Antonio has controlled the tempo in this series and played the halfcourt game they've wanted. They only lost last night because of Duncan's fifth foul. That's when the Suns made their run. For three and a half quarters the game unfolded the way San Antonio wanted it to. Spurs in 6, assuming both squads are at full strength.

Indeed, the one obvious lesson so far is that if TD gets in foul trouble (gm 2 and 4), the Spurs lose. If he doesn't the Spurs win. The key I think is the refs - he only gets in foul trouble when Nash gets some very questionable charge calls. If the refs get all ticky-tack, I think the Suns have a better chance.

[Cry Havoc]

If Amare is not suspended? I say 50-50. Yes the Suns will have confidence but the Spurs will have an angry Tim Duncan to counter. IMO it could go either way. One thing I'm sure of though is that the winner of Game 5 wins the series.

Not.

At.

All.

[Spurs Dynasty 21]

it all depends on whose suspended